Contract, Team Predictions for Every MLB Player Who Rejected Qualifying Offer
In the first 13 years of Major League Baseball's era of qualifying offers, only 14 out of 144 players accepted the one-year proposal.
However, this year broke from tradition with a surprising four—Trent Grisham, Shota Imanaga, Gleyber Torres and Brandon Woodruff—of the 13 players taking what was a one-year, $22.025M deal.
Now, the big question is: What becomes of the nine who turned it down?
How much will they fetch now they are officially free agents?
And with whom are they likely to sign what will be, for the most part, nine-figure contracts?
For each player, we'll discuss what makes them a coveted asset, and we'll note the contract projections from each of Spotrac, MLB Trade Rumors, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel and B/R's Tim Kelly before offering up a prediction on where they'll land and for how much.
Bo Bichette, SS
1 of 9
2025 Stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 3.5 bWAR
Other Projections: 8 years, $186M (Spotrac); 8 years, $208M (MLB Trade Rumors); 5 years, $130M (McDaniel); 7 years, $210M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 7 years, $184M to the Toronto Blue Jays
The projections are kind of all over the map here, both in terms of length and AAV. At 7/$184M, Bo Bichette would be getting slightly more than Willy Adames' 7/$182M deal from last winter, and he would have an AAV ($26.29M) slightly greater than the $26.25M that Bobby Witt Jr. is getting on his 11/$288.8M contract.
He would still be behind Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Trea Turner, but fifth-highest paid shortstop would have a nice ring to it.
Or, if he's definitely switching from shortstop to second base, maybe he would settle for 7/$176M, which would make him the highest-paid 2B in terms of both total value of the contract and AAV, slightly outpacing the 7/$175M deal Marcus Semien signed a few years ago.
Either way, he's going to become very rich very soon. And, either way, re-signing with the Blue Jays seems likely—unless they sign Kyle Tucker first and suddenly can't afford to also keep Bichette.
If he does remain north of the border, look for the contract to be structured in such a way that the first year is way less expensive than the rest, since they have George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho and others hitting free agency next winter.
It wouldn't change the luxury-tax hit, which is based on the AAV. But if Bichette took a $4M salary in 2026 before $30M annually from 2027-32, that would give them more liquidity to actually pay what figures to be a substantial tax bill next winter.
Dylan Cease, RHP
2 of 9
2025 Stats: 168.0 IP, 4.55 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 1.1 bWAR
Other Projections: 7 years, $185M (Spotrac); 7 years, $189M (MLB Trade Rumors); 5 years, $145M (ESPN); 5 years, $125M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 6 years, $168M with the Boston Red Sox
The year 2025 was an unlucky one for Dylan Cease, ending up with an ERA nearly a full run worse than his FIP. That's standard, small-sample stuff you'll see over the course of around 50 innings, but pitchers who log enough innings to qualify for an ERA title rarely have that large a divide between their ERA and what it theoretically ought to be.
Of course, his FIP is usually impressive because of his sheer volume of strikeouts. In fact, 2025 was his fifth consecutive season with at least 210 strikeouts, putting him in some rarefied air.
Over the past four decades, only nine other pitchers have accomplished that: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Félix Hernández, Corey Kluber and Gerrit Cole (who did it five times in a row from 2018-23 if you don't count 2020 against him).
That's quite the who's who of starting pitchers right there, but let's go one step further by noting Cease hasn't even turned 30 yet, hitting that milestone this December. And the only pitchers in the past 40 years to have at least five seasons of 210 or more strikeouts (consecutively or not) before the age of 30 are Kershaw (six), Hernández (six), Martínez (five), Sale (five), Roger Clemens (five) and Cease.
So, he's probably going to get paid quite handsomely, even after a 4.55 ERA campaign. And if it so happens to be the Boston Red Sox scooping him up and pairing him with Garrett Crochet (who led the majors with 255 strikeouts this past season), that could be a "Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling with the 2001-02 Arizona Diamondbacks" type of preposterous combo.
Edwin Diaz, RHP
3 of 9
2025 Stats: 66.1 IP, 28 saves, 1.63 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, 3.0 bWAR
Other Projections: 4 years, $73M (Spotrac); 4 years, $82M (MLB Trade Rumors); 4 years, $60M (ESPN); 4 years, $80M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 4 years, $72M to the New York Mets
Edwin Díaz is pretty clearly the cream of this year's reliever crop. Robert Suarez had more saves (40), but this former Met was more dominant and is more than three years younger than the former Padre. So, if any closer is getting signed to a big-time contract this winter, you're probably looking at him.
The problem Díaz could be facing is that he is the cream of a very large crop.
Of the 23 pitchers who recorded at least 18 saves in 2025, nine are on the open market right now in Díaz, Suarez, Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Emilio Pagán, Pete Fairbanks, Kyle Finnegan, Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams.
And it doesn't take a degree in economics to appreciate that when supply outweighs demand, the price tends to decrease.
That isn't to say interest in Díaz is limited, but his reported goal of another five-year, $102M contract might be a bit unrealistic, considering teams can pivot to any number of ninth-inning options that are somewhere around 75 percent as good for far less than 75 percent of that price.
At any rate, this is a far cry from two years ago when Josh Hader was basically the only show in town and got $95M for it.
All of this is likely good news for the Mets, who would like to reunite with the man who has been their closer since 2019.
Zac Gallen, RHP
4 of 9
2025 Stats: 192.0 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.1 bWAR
Other Projections: 4 years, $75M (Spotrac); 4 years, $80M (MLB Trade Rumors); 4 years, $76M (ESPN); 2 years, $45M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 4 years, $96M with the Los Angeles Angels
Aside from Kelly's projection of a classic Scott Boras "one year plus a player option" contract, the consensus is strong with this one: four years at somewhere between $18.75M and $20M apiece.
But isn't Zac Gallen exactly the type of pitcher that some atypical team like the Angels will scoop up; willing to pay ~20 percent above the current market price because it's still a good 20-25 percent below what the market price would have been one year ago?
Back in April, MLB Trade Rumors had Gallen at No. 6 overall and second only to Dylan Cease among pitchers in its early power ranking of this free-agent class, saying, "A healthy Gallen is all but a lock to cash in on a nine-figure deal."
Well, he was healthy enough to not miss a turn through the rotation. He just wasn't his usual dominant self, mostly due to what was horrific HR/FB luck through his first 21 starts, but also due to less swing-and-miss stuff than he used to have.
If he bounces back to pre-2025 form, even a 4/$96M deal would become a laughably team-friendly contract. And if he doesn't sniff nine figures on a deal, the Boras Special would make a lot of sense for him.
Michael King, RHP
5 of 9
2025 Stats: 73.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 1.2 bWAR
Other Projections: 4 years, $92M (Spotrac); 4 years, $80M (MLB Trade Rumors); 3 years, $57M (ESPN); 3 years, $54M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 3 years, $69M with the San Francisco Giants
Over the past five years, not many pitchers have been better than a healthy Michael King, who has a 2.99 ERA in 466.0 innings pitched. In the same time, Tarik Skubal has a 2.96 ERA in 734.2 IP.
However, King missed multiple months in 2021 (finger contusion), multiple months in 2022 (fractured elbow) and several months in 2025 (shoulder inflammation followed by knee inflammation). He also wasn't a full-time starting pitcher until 2024. And that's why his sub-3.00 ERA comes with a major "hasn't even pitched half as many innings as Logan Webb over the past five years" asterisk.
Can he become more of a durable workhorse?
He's still only 30, and we're mostly talking about fluky injuries from which he has repeatedly bounced back. And when he's in his element, he can do things like toss seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts in Game 1 of the postseason, as was the case in October 2024.
The expectation is that he won't get a particularly long-term deal, but King may well end up with the most uniquely structured contract of the winter.
Our official prediction is a straight-forward 3/$69M to the Giants, who desperately need starting pitching. But we could see something like 2/$45M followed by a conditional 4/$110M club option that converts to an $18M player option if declined.
Kyle Schwarber, DH
6 of 9
2025 Stats: .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBI, 10 SB, 4.7 bWAR
Other Projections: 4 years, $100M (Spotrac); 5 years, $135M (MLB Trade Rumors); 4 years, $128M (ESPN); 4 years, $135M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 5 years, $132M with the Philadelphia Phillies
With most free agents, the landing spot is mostly a guess from among around half-a-dozen teams where it could at least make sense based on spending history and team need.
With Kyle Schwarber, though, it's more of a question of: Phillies or the Field?
If the designated hitter extraordinaire does wind up leaving the City of Brotherly Love, a reunion with either the Cubs or Red Sox would make sense. Cincinnati or Detroit could also be logical, if either of 2025's No. 6 seeds is actually in the market for a nine-figure contract.
But as was the case last winter with Pete Alonso and the Mets, it's going to be kind of assumed Schwarber will return to Philadelphia until the moment he actually signs somewhere else.
He will turn 33 before the 2026 season begins, but he only seems to be getting better with age. And if Xander Bogaerts could sign an 11-year contract after celebrating his 30th, maybe Schwarber could end up getting a six- or even seven-year deal.
We'll keep our prediction at five years, though, with $1M for each of the 132 runs he drove in this past season.
Ranger Suarez, LHP
7 of 9
2025 Stats: 157.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4.7 bWAR
Other Projections: 6 years, $162M (Spotrac); 5 years, $115M (MLB Trade Rumors); 4 years, $92M (ESPN); 4 years, $110M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 5 years, $115M with the Chicago Cubs
One big unknown with Ranger Suárez is whether he has that intangible ace DNA.
To be sure, he has delivered ace-caliber production. Across 694.1 innings pitched since the beginning of 2021, he has a 3.25 ERA and a 15.2 fWAR. With a similar workload, Gerrit Cole (686.0 IP) has put up almost identical marks of 3.15 and 15.7, respectively.
But much like we always have to question if a dominant setup man can cut the mustard as a closer, it feels noteworthy that Suárez has never had to be "the guy," not once starting Game 1 or Game 2 of Philadelphia's regular season or postseason.
The 30-year-old has also never reached 160 innings pitched in a season and has become something of a reverse Blake Snell, dominating in the first half of the year before cratering in the second. (2.81 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in first half of past three seasons; 4.73 ERA and 1.49 WHIP after the All-Star break.)
These are the little things teams will be grappling with when trying to decide how heavily they're willing to invest in Suárez and whether he's going to be their Opening Day starter for the foreseeable future.
But with three of the five projections putting him at a $23M AAV, he could be an absolute steal if he continues to produce at the level that he has.
Both Kevin Gausman (5 years, $110M) and Robbie Ray (5 years, $115M) got that type of money at the same age, and they each had a career ERA of almost exactly 4.00 when they signed. Suárez may well be better than both.
Kyle Tucker, OF
8 of 9
2025 Stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 25 SB, 4.6 bWAR
Other Projections: 10 years, $402M (Spotrac); 11 years, $400M (MLB Trade Rumors); 11 years, $418M (ESPN); 10 years, $360M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 12 years, $427M with the Los Angeles Dodgers
After Shohei Ohtani's $700M contract two winters ago and Juan Soto's $765M deal last offseason, having Kyle Tucker check in with an estimation somewhere in the $400M range as the clear-cut top contract of the class might feel a bit underwhelming.
But if he gets $40M per year, that's Aaron Judge money, which is presently the fourth-highest AAV in the majors.
Also fourth-best at the moment is the total value of Mike Trout's 12-year, $426.5M contract, which is precisely why our prediction is $427M.
That isn't to say Tucker is better than Trout was when he signed his deal six-and-a-half years ago. In fact, that would be crazy talk, because Trout was already a two-time MVP at that point and seemingly destined to become one of the five greatest players in MLB history while Tucker is...consistently considerably better than average, when healthy.
All hail the power of inflation, though, with everyone expecting Tucker's AAV to exceed Trout's, even after back-to-back seasons in which he didn't receive a single MVP vote.
To be clear, though, Tucker deserves to get paid far more than anyone else this winter. His overall fWAR over the past five seasons (23.4) ranks 10th-best among hitters, nestled directly in between $365M Mookie Betts and $325M Corey Seager. And the only other player in the top 35 on that list who is available right now is Alex Bregman in 29th place—and he's three years older than Tucker.
From the sound of things thus far, the big four chasing Tucker are the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Phillies. And if we've got the Blue Jays and Phillies re-signing Bo Bichette and Kyle Schwarber, respectively, that probably trims the list down to two.
The big question then becomes whether the Yankees will manage to re-sign Cody Bellinger. If not, it should be full steam ahead on Tucker.
But the Dodgers have left the Yanks in the dust in terms of spending in recent years, and this head-to-head bidding war will serve as a reminder of which empire treats payroll like Monopoly money.
Framber Valdez, LHP
9 of 9
2025 Stats: 192.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 3.8 bWAR
Other Projections: 6 years, $200M (Spotrac); 5 years, $150M (MLB Trade Rumors); 6 years, $168M (ESPN); 4 years, $114M (Kelly)
Our Prediction: 6 years, $200M with the Baltimore Orioles
Projecting the Orioles to make a $200M investment in one player is probably our hottest take on this list.
But if not now, when?
Trevor Rogers was quite the breakout star for the O's in 2025, but 2026 will already be his last before free agency. They have two years left on each of Adley Rutschman, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells, and three years on each of Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Bradish.
For now, though, the nucleus is still intact, with the likes of Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo starting to make an impact as the next wave of key contributors.
This is the time for them to strike. (Partially because a different kind of strike threatens to deprive them of a chance to accomplish anything in 2027.) And if they're serious about going for it in 2026, bringing in one of the best rubber-armed aces in the business would be a fine way to go about it.
Valdez, 32, averages well north of six innings per start and has tallied 83 quality starts over the past four seasons, trailing only Logan Webb (85) for what would be the MLB lead in that department. And for a team with major work to do in the bullpen, why not spend big on a starter who can reduce the need to call upon middle relievers?
Valdez has also logged more postseason innings since the beginning of 2020 than any other pitcher, and having that experience in the rotation would be huge for a team like Baltimore.
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