College Football Playoff Bracket Projections and Predictions after Week 11

While the most respected teams in the College Football Playoff all emerged unscathed from Week 11, not everyone was so fortunate.

The last projection had Virginia making its debut in the bracket, along with Memphis. Both of those programs fell, however, and they've tumbled out with Notre Dame and North Texas sliding into the 12-team field.

Additionally, BYU dipped to the back end of the seeding after defeat to now-Big 12 front-runner Texas Tech.

And there's no question more drama is on the horizon.

The projections for the CFP are based on the latest B/R Top 25, which both recent results have shaped and upcoming games will change.

Key Results in Week

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Cole Wisniewski

Tulane 38, Memphis 32

One week earlier, Tulane's loss at UTSA threw a wrench in the American. This time around, it was the Green Wave's turn to shake up the standings. Jake Retzlaff accounted for 374 yards and four touchdowns in a critical road victory that doubled as Memphis losing its second conference game.

Wake Forest 16, Virginia 9
Cal 29, Louisville 26 (OT)

Remember when NC State upset Georgia Tech and sent Virginia soaring into the projected CFP field? That was fun while it lasted. Turnovers crushed the Cavaliers in the loss to Wake, and Louisville squandered its opportunity to replace UVA with an overtime setback at home against Cal. Those results nudged Georgia Tech back into position as the ACC's top-ranked team.

Texas Tech 29, BYU 7
Oregon 18, Iowa 16

The marquee games of Week 11 ended with Texas Tech comfortably handing BYU its first loss and Oregon surviving a trip to Iowa. Most notably, Tech is now just two victories from essentially securing a spot in the CFP. Oregon isn't quite there, but the Ducks retained their margin for error with three remaining games.

B/R's Top 25 After Week 11

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Gunner Stockton

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Texas Tech
8. Ole Miss
9. Georgia Tech
10. BYU
11. Notre Dame
12. Vanderbilt
13. Oklahoma
14. Utah
15. Texas
16. Michigan
17. USC
18. Virginia
19. Louisville
20. Pittsburgh
21. Cincinnati
22. Miami
23. North Texas
24. South Florida
25. Missouri

Post-Week 11 CFP Picture

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Noah Whittington

Bracket Format

Automatic bids: The highest-ranked team within five conferences. (Ultimately, the league champion will receive an auto-bid.)

Ohio State (No. 1, Big Ten)

Texas A&M (No. 3, SEC)

Texas Tech (No. 7, Big 12)

Georgia Tech (No. 9, ACC)

North Texas (No. 23, American)

At-large bids: The next seven highest-ranked teams in the country.

Indiana (No. 2)

Alabama (No. 4)

Georgia (No. 5)

Oregon (No. 6)

Ole Miss (No. 8)

BYU (No. 10)

Notre Dame (No. 11)

Rankings are based on latest B/R Top 25.

Chaos in the Group of 5

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Wayne Knight

Since mid-October, the American has become a delightful mess.

UAB stunned then-undefeated Memphis in Week 8, but the Tigers took out USF in Week 9. Then in Week 10, UTSA upset Tulane, and North Texas handed Navy its first loss of the campaign. And this weekend, the Green Wave beat Memphis.

The result is a five-way tie atop the standings, as Navy (5-1 in conference) is technically a win ahead of USF, Tulane, North Texas and East Carolina.

As the American beats itself up, could the Sun Belt crash the party?

Remember, the highest-ranked champion from the Group of Five will receive an automatic bid to the CFP. The most likely outcome is that program will be from the American, but James Madison—which is 8-1 with its only loss at Louisville—is building a legitimate case for inclusion.

Never before has the Sun Belt champion been the G5 representative in either a New Year's Six bowl or the Playoff.

But it the American doesn't see USF, Tulane or North Texas rattle off a perfect finish, that streak could end if JMU rolls to 12-1 with a Sun Belt title.

Impact Games in Week 12

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CJ Carr

Nonconference: Notre Dame at Pitt

After falling to Miami and Texas A&M early this season, Notre Dame has responded with seven straight wins. As long as the Fighting Irish end at 10-2, they'll be part of the CFP—but this journey to Pitt is ND's toughest remaining game. Pitt needs a win to keep its at-large possibility alive, though it's more likely the Panthers must secure an ACC crown to make the Playoff anyway.

American: South Florida at Navy
American: Memphis at East Carolina

Part of the mayhem in the American will be resolved when USF travels to Navy. Memphis, meanwhile, cannot afford a third league setback, and ECU would be facing an uphill climb in the standings with a second conference loss. These results look vitally important for tiebreaker purposes.

SEC: Oklahoma at Alabama
SEC: Texas at Georgia

Oklahoma and Texas both desperately need a marquee win to bolster their two-loss résumés. It's possible for OU or Texas to overcome a third loss in the eyes of the CFP selection committee, but that's a dangerous place to sit—just ask 2024 Alabama. On the other sidelines, Bama and UGA basically can lock in a 10-win record with a victory since both programs face FCS opponents next weekend.