Forecasting MLB's 10 Biggest Bombshells of the 2025-26 Offseason
With an epic MLB postseason now in the rearview, the MLB offseason has arrived, and the next few months will be all about free-agency predictions and trade rumors as teams prepare to upgrade their rosters for the 2026 season.
Outfielder Kyle Tucker is the biggest name set to hit the open market this winter, but there is no shortage of talent behind him, including the next potential Japan-born star in Munetaka Murakami.
The ultimate landing spots of those two players will not be the only stories that grab headlines this winter.
Ahead, we've given our best guess at what will be the 10 biggest bombshells of the 2025-26 MLB offseason, with a mix of free-agency predictions and trade proposals.
Let the hot-stove games begin.
Munetaka Murakami's Contract Exceeds $200 Million
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The success of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and other Japanese League standouts who have made the jump to Major League Baseball in recent years should make teams more confident in opening their wallets for this year's international phenom.
Slugger Munetaka Murakami does not turn 26 years old until Feb. 2, but he has already racked up 265 home runs and 722 RBI over eight seasons with the Yakult Swallows, and the expectation is that he will be making his way stateside this winter.
While several pitchers have received handsome paydays through the international posting system, Jung Hoo Lee (6/$113M), Masataka Yoshida (5/$90M) and Seiya Suzuki (5/$85M) have received the three largest paydays for hitters.
Expect Murakami to blow past that bar.
Given his impact potential, age, track record and the fact that he is a third baseman, he could aim to top the 10-year, $212 million extension Austin Riley signed with the Atlanta Braves a few years ago.
Red Sox, Pirates Swap Wilyer Abreu, Mitch Keller
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The Boston Red Sox have an abundance of outfield talent and a clear need for a veteran starting pitcher to replace Lucas Giolito, who is expected to decline his end of a $19 million mutual option.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a terrific homegrown starting rotation, but ranked dead-last in the majors with 583 runs scored and a .655 OPS as a team.
The two sides swapped an arm for a bat at the 2024 trade deadline with the Quinn Priester-for-Nick Yorke deal, and a similar one-for-one swap at the MLB level might make sense this winter.
Mitch Keller has three years and $55.7 million remaining on the five-year extension he signed with the Pirates, and while he is slated to be the highest-paid player on the Pittsburgh roster in 2026, that price tag is still well below his market value. The 29-year-old had a 4.19 ERA in 176.1 innings in 2025.
Jarren Duran has been the Red Sox outfielder most often mentioned in trade talks, but Wilyer Abreu also has significant value as a 26-year-old with club control through 2029 coming off a second straight 3-WAR season.
The 2024 Gold Glove winner has a 118 OPS in 949 plate appearances in the big leagues, and he would immediately become one of Pittsburgh's top bats.
Phillies Swing Blockbuster Deal for Adley Rutschman
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The Philadelphia Phillies have three high-profile free agents set to depart this winter in designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, starting pitcher Ranger Suárez and catcher J.T. Realmuto.
It's fair to wonder how much Realmuto has left in the tank entering his age-35 campaign and coming off a 91 OPS that was his lowest ever over a full season.
However, the Phillies have nothing remotely resembling an in-house replacement, and the free-agent market is also largely devoid of starting-caliber catching talent, with Danny Jansen and Victor Caratini the top names behind Realmuto.
That could steer the Phillies to the trade market.
Adley Rutschman looked like a franchise cornerstone in Baltimore just a few years ago, but after the team signed young catcher Samuel Basallo to an eight-year extension in August and with free agency approaching for Rutschman after the 2027 season, it's fair to wonder if that is still the case.
A retooling could be in order for the Orioles following a disappointing season, and swinging a deal for Rutschman would line up with Philadelphia's rapidly closing window of contention. He could fill the void behind the plate for the next two seasons, then if the aging roster needs to be revamped, he would be off the books.
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Yankees Outbid Dodgers for Kyle Tucker
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are widely believed to be the favorites to land Kyle Tucker in free agency this winter, with a glaring hole in left field and a bottomless pool of financial flexibility.
However, he could be the player the New York Yankees decide to make a top priority, and if they want to flex their own financial muscle, they are still capable of spending with any team in baseball.
Tucker, 28, is the top player on the market coming off a 22-homer, 25-steal, 4.5-WAR season and a fourth straight All-Star selection in what will likely be his only season with the Chicago Cubs.
A $40 million annual salary is not out of the question, and after losing Juan Soto to the Mets last winter, the Yankees will again need to address their outfield as Cody Bellinger is expected to opt out of the final year of his contract.
A reunion with Bellinger is a possibility, but an all-out blitz to sign Tucker and keep the Dodgers from adding another superstar is not out of the question.
Dodgers Pivot to Cody Bellinger Reunion
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If the Dodgers do end up losing Kyle Tucker to the Yankees or some other team, what will be their next move?
They could opt for another one-year deal for a veteran similar to last offseason's Michael Conforto signing, with guys like Max Kepler, Mike Yastrzemski, Hunter Renfroe and Lane Thomas among the potential options.
A multi-year deal for Trent Grisham or Harrison Bader in center field, with Andy Pages shifting over to left field, is also an option, though Grisham has significant boom-or-bust potential and Bader has been inconsistent throughout his career.
That might make a reunion with Cody Bellinger their best fallback plan.
During a six-year run with the Dodgers to start his career, he won 2017 NL Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP, but his production cratered in 2021 and 2022 and he was ultimately non-tendered.
After hitting .281/.388/.477 for a 125 OPS over the last three seasons with the Cubs and Yankees, Bellinger has returned to impact form, and he could be headed for a $30 million AAV payday.
Mariners Re-Sign Josh Naylor, Acquire Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe in Blockbuster Deal
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After reaching Game 7 of the ALCS, the Seattle Mariners will return their entire starting rotation next season, but there is work to do rebuilding an offense set to lose deadline pickups Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez to free agency, along with Jorge Polanco if he declines a mutual option as expected.
A reunion with Naylor has quickly emerged as one of the most likely moves of the winter, but simply re-signing him will not be enough to push this team over the top in the hunt for a title.
Enter the Tampa Bay Rays.
The small-market club is always looking to get younger and cheaper, and that generally means trading away veteran talent each offseason. Yandy Díaz ($12 million salary) and Brandon Lowe ($11.5 million club option) will be two of the highest-paid players on the team next year, and the odds are high that at least one of them will be traded.
The Mariners could be a landing spot for both of them in a packaged deal, and with baseball's top farm system, they have the prospect talent to make that type of move if they are prepared to go all-in on chasing a championship in 2026.
Giants Acquire Joe Ryan to Bolster Starting Rotation
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With two more years of arbitration control, including an extremely team-friendly $5.8 million projected salary for 2026, Joe Ryan might end up being the top trade chip on the market this winter.
The Minnesota Twins waved the white flag with one of the most aggressive fire sales in recent memory at the trade deadline, and there is no reason to think they will stop selling this winter, so Ryan should feature prominently on the wish list of more than a few teams.
One of those teams could be the San Francisco Giants, who need a third quality starter to join Logan Webb and Robbie Ray at the top of the rotation if they are going to make a serious playoff push out of the NL West.
High-ceiling young shortstops Josuar Gonzalez and Jhonny Level could be attractive centerpieces in a blockbuster deal, while a controllable young arm like Landen Roupp or Hayden Birdsong could fill Ryan's spot in the 2026 rotation.
Braves Acquire Marcus Semien to Plug SS Hole
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The Texas Rangers have already made it clear they plan to decrease payroll this offseason, but it's unclear exactly how far they are expected to go in cutting costs and reworking the roster after a disappointing 81-81 finish.
Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, Nathan Eovaldi and Marcus Semien are set to earn a combined $124.5 million in 2026, so flipping someone from that group would go a long way.
Moving him now would be selling low on Semien, but he might also be the easiest of the bunch to trade, especially if a team still believes he can play shortstop in a thin market at the position.
While he has spent the past five seasons at second base, he was a shortstop for the first six full seasons of his big league career, and has always been a strong defender up the middle.
The Atlanta Braves have a glaring need at shortstop, and showed a willingness to buy low on a high-priced veteran with their deal to acquire Chris Sale a few years ago. If they can't come to terms on a new deal with Ha-Seong Kim, Semien could be an outside-the-box solution to their shortstop problem.
Bo Bichette Signs With Tigers, Shifts to 2B
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The Detroit Tigers were a popular speculative landing spot for Alex Bregman last offseason, but their biggest addition ended up being Gleyber Torres on a one-year, $15 million deal.
As he gets set to depart for what will likely be a multi-year deal this winter, the Tigers could again make a run at signing Bregman, but another infielder might be an even better fit.
Bo Bichette does not turn 28 years old until March 5, and after a down year in 2024, he returned to elite form offensively this season with a .311/.357/.483 line that included 44 doubles, 18 home runs and 94 RBI in 139 games.
However, he has generally graded out as one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball, and there is some belief that a shift to second base might be part of the deal he signs in his first trip to free agency this winter.
A reunion with the Blue Jays is still a real possibility, especially after their World Series trip, but the Tigers could be one of his top suitors if the winds start blowing him elsewhere.
It would also represent a significant move to show Tarik Skubal the front office is serious about building a title contender, as the Tigers try to hammer out a long-term extension with their ace before he hits the open market after the 2026 season.
Mets Let Pete Alonso Walk, Spend Big on Starting Pitching
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Pete Alonso is one of the best in the business at what he does, which is hit home runs and drive in runs in the middle of the lineup.
However, it's fair to ask if what he does is really worth the lucrative seven-year deal he is reportedly seeking, as he provides little secondary value with his glove or on the bases, and has a profile that is unlikely to age well given his significant reliance on power production.
His market never materialized last winter and he ended up re-signing with the Mets on a two-year, $54 million deal with an opt-out, and now he faces arguably a deeper market for impact bats than he did a year ago.
This time, the Mets might not be willing to wait around given their needs in the starting rotation, and it would not be surprising to see them land more than one of Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen and Japanese League standout Tatsuya Imai with nine-figure deals.
The young trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat showed potential down the stretch, but they need more veteran stability to serve as the foundation of their 2026 rotation.
If that means focusing their spending on arms and shifting Mark Vientos to first base next year, so be it. The team that is willing to meet Alonso's asking price could end up regretting that signing in the long term, especially if he doesn't help deliver a title in the next couple years.
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