The Case for Vanderbilt, Notre Dame and Other Bubble Teams to Make the CFP

We're about to reshuffle the deck in college football. Next Tuesday, the first College Football Playoff projections will be unveiled in front of a national audience, and it will provide everybody a litmus test on just where they stand in regards to making the final 12.

Right now, there are so many bubbles, the national playoff picture looks like a car wash.

It's anybody's guess how the jam-packed SEC is going to shake out, whether anybody other than the Big Ten's top three can impress enough to sneak into the picture or whether the Big 12 and ACC are going to be one-bid leagues.

The Group of Five pool is a beautiful mess right now, too.

With so many bubble games remaining to be played—I'm looking at this week alone and seeing Tennessee-Oklahoma, Texas-Vanderbilt, Cincinnati-Utah and Navy-North Texas—it's an effort in fun futility to make any predictions.

Basing "who's in" on your Bleacher Report college football experts' top 25 rankings and predicted projections, here are the teams we think are in and the bubble teams we think have a strong shot at getting to the finish line.

SEC

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In as of Week 8: Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss

Bubble Teams

Vanderbilt Commodores

Let's face it: Unless you're a fan of a fellow SEC bubble team or Tennessee (or both), Vanderbilt being in the College Football Playoff would be fun. Who else doesn't want to see the longest of long shots with Diego Pavia in the final 12?

The Commodores are the top team not already in the playoffs who pose a real threat. They're currently 7-1 with wins already over three other teams that were ranked in the top 15 when they played (South Carolina, LSU and Missouri). While the victories over the Gamecocks and Tigers haven't aged well, VU still has a legit defense and one of the brashest, most exciting players in football in Pavia.

Work remains with bubble games against No. 20 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee (as well as showdowns with Auburn and Kentucky). But if Vandy finishes 10-2 splitting those two bubble games, they should get in.

Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols are the SEC bubble team with the weakest resume, but coach Josh Heupel's team also has the easiest remaining schedule out of all the teams trying to get there in the league. That's why they get a nod here.

With a 6-2 record, there's no margin for error for Tennessee with bubble games remaining against Oklahoma (this week) and Vanderbilt Nov. 29). The good news for the Vols is both of those games are in Neyland Stadium.

A trip to Tennessee's house of horrors—Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville— for a rare late-season showdown with Florida on Nov. 22 looms as a stumbling block, too, but if the Vols win out, they stand a good chance to get in.

This is a team with no quality wins, but a 44-41 loss to Georgia and a fairly close game that got away with them against Alabama won't hurt them in the committee's eyes, either.

Oklahoma Sooners

It's a crapshoot whether the Sooners or the hated Texas Longhorns have the best shot to make it in. They both have a murderer's-row schedule remaining, but the 'Horns' is worse.

So even though they beat OU head-to-head, the Sooners get the nod here.

Like Pavia, the Sooners have a star quarterback in John Mateer who is an exciting player alluring to the playoffs, even if he's struggled recently. They have a lockdown defense, too. With road games at Tennessee and Alabama the next two weeks, we'll know soon enough. No. 19 Mizzou and LSU won't be easy, either.

If OU happens to win out, it belongs. If the Sooners lose another one, though, they can kiss that bid goodbye. Still, they get the nod over Texas (awful schedule) and Missouri (Beau Pribula injury) as the third bubble team with a shot.

Big Ten

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In as of Week 8: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon

Bubble Teams

Michigan Wolverines

Unless you're a believer that the Washington Huskies are really on the bubble, there are just two other teams outside of the top three in the Big Ten with an outside at a playoff berth.

The pollsters still value the Wolverines, ranking them 21st despite losses to Oklahoma and USC. They do have an impressive 24-7 victory over the fringe-playoff Huskies, and if they handle things against Purdue, Northwestern and Maryland, this boils down to a brutal end.

Nothing would be bigger than beating Ohio State for the fourth straight time. If that happens, though, it means they'd go to the Big Ten championship game if USC drops a game down the stretch. 

That's where Indiana awaits with another herculean order. But back-to-back wins against the Buckeyes and Hoosiers guarantee a spot.

USC Trojans

Coach Lincoln Riley's Trojans could have earned some valuable style points with a win at Notre Dame, but that didn't happen. Also, a loss to No. 23 Illinois hurt, too.

But the Trojans hold the tiebreaker over Michigan, so if they win out and the Wolverines beat Ohio State, the path to the playoff resembles the Wolverines' except for USC holds the head-to-head edge. That could be a big deal.

"Winning out" won't be easy at all, though. Road games at Nebraska and No. 6 Oregon are brutal. Northwestern Iowa and UCLA have all shown flashes at times this year, too.

Like all the other two-loss teams on this list, there's simply no margin for losing another game. And the prize at the end of the gauntlet looks to be the Indiana Hoosiers in a must-win Big Ten championship game, too. So, it won't be easy, but it's possible.

ACC

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In as of Week 8: Georgia Tech, Miami

Bubble Teams

Louisville Cardinals

There's plenty of star power in The Ville. 

With explosive running back Isaac Brown, transfer quarterback Miller Moss and a head coach who is a popular name for all the big-time openings coaching at his alma mater in Jeff Brohm, there are a lot of reasons to like the Cardinals.

They're 7-1 and the least-discussed contender in the league. The only blemish on their record is an overtime loss to Virginia, and a resume-building win over then-No. 2 Miami on October 17 was eye-opening. Beating a quality G5 James Madison team wasn't a slouch, either.

The Cardinals have sneaky-tough games remaining against Clemson and at SMU, along with Boston College, Virginia Tech, California and Kentucky, and it feels like they need to win out and get the auto ACC berth with a conference game win to get in.

Is it possible they could lose that title game and still go? It's debatable, but the No. 16 Cardinals at least need to get there.

Virginia Cavaliers

While a case could be made for the Pittsburgh Panthers to be on the bubble, it would take a ton for them to get in the picture (much like Washington). That's not the case with this year's surprising Virginia Cavaliers.

Coach Tony Elliott's team has been one of the most fun teams in the nation to watch with one-possession, ulcer-inducing wins over Florida State, Louisville, Washington State and North Carolina. They've got a wonky way of playing up or down to competition.

With a remaining schedule that includes dangerous-but-unranked teams like California, Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia Tech, running the table with a one-loss resume is obtainable. Then, they'll have a chance to earn some big-time style points in the ACC title game.

Much like Vanderbilt, seeing an academics-first dark horse like the Hoos get in would be thrilling.

Big 12

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In as of Week 8: BYU, Texas Tech

Bubble Teams

Cincinnati Bearcats

Nobody is talking about coach Scott Satterfield's Bearcats, but what they've done this year is a story on par with what Arizona State and BYU did last year and what another team we'll talk about in a bit has put together in '25.

Satterfield was on the hot seat entering the season, but with quarterback Brendan Sorsby's breakout campaign and with them finding a way to grind out wins, a season-opening loss to Nebraska is long in the rearview.

They haven't beaten any ranked teams, though Iowa State was No. 14 when they won that one, but starting with this weekend's tough battle at No. 24 Utah, an end-of-year slate that includes Arizona, No. 10 BYU and TCU could turn heads.

Even if they win them all, you'd think the No. 17 Bearcats need to win the Big 12 title game to ensure a trip to the playoffs. Perhaps they could climb high enough to where a close conference championship loss could get them in, but don't bet on it.

Houston Cougars

Willie Fritz is just a program builder.

He did it at Georgia Southern. He did it at Tulane. And, now in Year 2, the veteran is doing it with the Houston Cougars.

They've come from nowhere with Texas A&M quarterback transfer Conner Weigman at the helm, but he's far from the only weapon as Fritz is building a quality team in a place where you absolutely can recruit and win.

Their only loss was to Texas Tech, and beating Arizona State on the road last weekend was kind of a "welcome to the conversation" moment. Houston may even be favored in all four of its remaining games against West Virginia, UCF, TCU and Baylor, which would clear a possible path to the conference title game.

These guys need to be on your radar.

Group of Five

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In as of Week 8: Memphis

Bubble Teams

Navy Midshipmen

There's no tougher remaining G5 schedule than that daunting task facing the Navy Midshipmen. But even though their schedule has been light so far, they're undefeated, and that can't be discounted.

It's possible there should be a massive asterisk by that, though, and we'll find out soon.

Starting with a road trip to Denton to play high-octane North Texas this weekend, they then travel to No. 12 Notre Dame, head home to take on USF, head to Memphis, potentially play in the AAC title game and then end the year against rival Army.

Navy has two of the most exciting G5 playmakers out there in quarterback Blake Horvath and slot back Eli Heidenreich, and they're going to need them in this grueling stretch. They can afford a probable loss to Notre Dame, but Navy has everything in front of it.

What an awesome thing that would be for them to make the CFP.

South Florida Bulls

There are several teams you could put here who have fewer losses than the Bulls.

But you can't discount USF's head-to-head wins over Boise State and shocking upset at Florida. Yes, the Bulls blew it against Memphis, but while they've still got work to do in the AAC, there's still a path to the conference title game.

Winning that, and they'll probably be the highest-ranked G5 team, even with three losses.

They had the early-season clout, and with quarterback Byrum Brown running the show, they can get hot again. The Bulls certainly need to shore up that defense, though, to have any shot.

San Diego State Aztecs

Yes, believe it or not, it appears that coach Sean Lewis' Aztecs are on their way back to competing as a mid-major powerhouse.

Due to UTSA's annihilation of Tulane on Thursday night, surprising San Diego State makes this list over the Green Wave because of its 6-1 record and spotless start in the Mountain West after three games.

Everything is in front of them with remaining games against Wyoming, at Hawaii, Boise State, San Jose State and at New Mexico. That's a tough stretch in the Mountain West, but run the table, and the playoffs are in the picture. Hosting Boise would be the biggest W.

But it's fun to even think about the Aztecs being here after going 3-9 a season ago.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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You either love the Fighting Irish or you love to hate them.

Regardless of where you stand, it doesn't matter. Despite back-to-back losses to Miami and Texas A&M to start the season, coach Marcus Freeman's team is still very much in the playoff picture.

Both of those close, tough losses have aged well, and according to the B/R standings, both of those teams are firmly in the College Football Playoff as of Week 8. The Irish needs to stay hot, much like they did a year ago after they ran the table after a historic loss to Northern Illinois.

With CJ Carr an explosive weapon at quarterback, the best 1-2 running back punch in college football and an improving defense, there have been times the Irish have looked like a playoff team.

There's no margin for error, though. With no conference championship game, that can be a blessing and a curse.

While this weekend's game at Boston College won't turn any heads, Notre Dame still plays an unbeaten Navy team, Syracuse, at Stanford (where Florida State lost) and a budding difficult game is November 15 at Pittsburgh.

With the way true freshman quarterback Matt Heintschel has played for the Panthers, that's not an easy game for the Irish, and that's probably a good thing. Notre Dame needs to win and to earn style points, too.

There's still a path to the final 12 for the 12th-ranked Irish.