College Football Playoff Bracket Projections and Predictions after Week 9

After a flurry of upsets and wild results throughout October, the final weekend of the month hardly altered the College Football Playoff race.

Ole Miss picked up a critical win at Oklahoma, and each one of the 11 power-conference teams included in last week's CFP projection either won or didn't play. Subsequently, only some rankings changed for those schools.

As for the Group of Five representative, however, South Florida's loss to Memphis has flipped the leader for that coveted automatic bid.

The projections for the CFP are based on the latest B/R Top 25, which both recent results have shaped and upcoming games will change.

Key Results in Week 9

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Memphis 34, South Florida 31

Nico Gramatica's 52-yard field goal sailed wide as time expired, giving Memphis a critical win over a strong South Florida team. Memphis QB Brendon Lewis was questionable due to a lower-body injury but stepped up massively with 307 passing yards and two scores. As a result, Navy and Tulane are the final unbeaten teams left in a crowded race for the American crown.

Ole Miss 34, Oklahoma 26
Vanderbilt 17, Missouri 10
Texas A&M 49, LSU 25

After a horrible defensive day in last weekend's loss to Georgia, Ole Miss responded well at Oklahoma and positioned itself beautifully to make the CFP. Vandy, meanwhile, continued its dream season with a hard-fought win over Missouri before Texas A&M dropped a hammer on hot seat-dwelling Brian Kelly and LSU.

BYU 41, Iowa State 27
Houston 24, Arizona State 16

BYU recovered from an early 14-point deficit to earn a solid road victory, and Houston also scored a valuable win at Arizona State. Those results essentially knocked Iowa State out of Big 12 contention, and ASU may need a minor miracle to defend its conference title.

B/R's Top 25 After Week 9

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Ty Simpson

B/R Top 25

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Georgia Tech
8. BYU
9. Ole Miss
10. Miami
11. Texas Tech
12. Vanderbilt
13. Louisville
14. Virginia
15. Notre Dame
16. Cincinnati
17. Tennessee
18. Michigan
19. Houston
20. Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. USC
23. Memphis
24. Utah
25. Navy

Post-Week 9 CFP Picture

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Trinidad Chambliss

Bracket Format

Automatic bids: The highest-ranked team within five conferences. (Ultimately, the league champion will receive an auto-bid.)

1. Ohio State (No. 1, Big Ten)
2. Texas A&M (No. 3, SEC)
3. Georgia Tech (No. 7, ACC)
4. BYU (No. 8, Big 12)
5. Memphis (No. 23, American)

At-large bids: The next seven highest-ranked teams in the country.

1. Indiana (No. 2)
2. Alabama (No. 4)
3. Georgia (No. 5)
4. Oregon (No. 6)
5. Ole Miss (No. 9)
6. Miami (No. 10)
7. Texas Tech (No. 11)

Rankings are based on latest B/R Top 25.

Vandy Pounding on Playoff Door

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Diego Pavia

Team of destiny?

Now ranked 12th in B/R's Top 25, Vanderbilt is the "first team out" in the CFP race. Saturday's win certainly wasn't pretty—Mizzou outgained Vandy 376-265—but the Commodores again found a way.

The history of the program makes this 2025 ascent so fascinating. The impact of that story, though, is steadily becoming a sidebar. With every victory, Clark Lea's team continues to stick in both national and SEC discussions. Vanderbilt is 7-1 overall and holds a 3-1 mark in conference play.

Look, I'm not driving the bandwagon of CFP-level expectations.

It genuinely would be awesome to see a longtime SEC bottom-feeder soar to those heights. Still, the remaining schedule is tough. Vanderbilt opens November at Texas, hosts Auburn and Kentucky with an idle weekend in between and closes the regular season at Tennessee. Two losses are very realistically on the horizon.

But if the 'Dores are able to finish 3-1 for a 10-2 record, they are going to have a compelling case for an at-large bid.

Impact Games in Week 10

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Brendan Sorsby

American: Navy at North Texas
Mountain West: Fresno State at Boise State

In all likelihood, one of these two conferences will send its champion to the College Football Playoff. Navy is quietly 7-0, while North Texas is 7-1. Boise State is perfect in league play but needs to avoid a third overall loss, or else the American is going to have a firm grasp on the projected auto bid.

ACC: Miami at SMU
Big 12: Cincinnati at Utah

Everyone's margin for error is thinning. For those with at least one setback, though, another can feel catastrophic. Miami desperately needs to avoid a loss at SMU—coached by former Miami OC Rhett Lashlee—to remain a factor in the ACC race. Cincinnati is the only unbeaten in Big 12 action other than BYU.

SEC: Vanderbilt at Texas
SEC: Oklahoma at Tennessee

The gauntlet of the SEC is simply a matter of survival. None of these programs are unblemished in conference play, and dropping additional SEC contests will severely impact their Playoff hopes.