Every SEC Football's Team Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for 2015
It's the middle of July, a couple of weeks before fall camp starts around the nation and SEC football gets ready to kick off.
In other words, this is the point of the offseason where optimism springs eternal.
Everybody is 0-0, and if you listen to the majority of fanbases, their teams have what it takes to make it to Atlanta to play for the conference title.
After all, the SEC East is wide open (how many times have you heard that this offseason?) and the SEC West is so strong that it would be the nation's toughest conference. Right? Yeah, you've heard that, too.
Right now, every team is trying to get to where Alabama and Missouri were a season ago. There are upstarts many around the nation are talking about such as Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M. Then there are the old staples like the Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs.
Can last year's out-of-nowhere darlings, Mississippi and Mississippi State, keep things going? Will potential powerhouses Auburn and LSU awake from a forgettable 2014 slumber?
There are so many questions surrounding a league that is now on a two-year national championship drought.
Things must line up perfectly for a program to compete for national titles or league titles. For some programs, just achieving a winning record seems far-fetched this year.
Let's examine every SEC team's best- and worst-case scenarios entering the 2015 season.
Alabama
1 of 14
Best Case
As Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban alluded to CBSSports.com's Chip Patterson at this week's SEC media days, one of his quarterbacks needs to "take the bull by the horns" and emerge as a viable leader for a talented offense.
Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake and the slim depth chart behind them stay healthy enough to power Alabama through the season, and a receiver-by-committee steps up to replace the production of departed megastar Amari Cooper.
Defensively, the Tide's talented defensive backs respond positively to the hiring of longtime NFL assistant Mel Tucker to shore up the back end, and Bama rolls to another national title.
Worst Case
Alabama struggles to find a competent quarterback who can manage the offense, and the Tide gets banged up in the offensive backfield early so they're relying on young, inexperienced runners to shoulder the load.
Nobody steps up as a legitimate downfield threat at receiver and, defensively, they struggle defending the pass and rushing quarterbacks as they did at times a season ago.
Losing four games in Tuscaloosa just doesn't seem like a reasonable low point right now, but a three-loss season is certainly not out of the question for a team with more questions than many fans want to admit.
Arkansas
2 of 14
Best Case
Arkansas' two-headed rushing attack led by Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins continue their assault on the rest of the SEC running behind what may be the nation's best offensive line.
Senior quarterback Brandon Allen goes another step beyond what he did as a game manager a season ago and makes more plays with his arm.
The Razorbacks find a way to replace key departures on all three levels of their defense, and they emerge as the SEC West's representative in the championship game and surge to a major bowl after a two-loss season.
Worst Case
As many coaches around the league will tell you, there's a long distance between 7-6 and elite status in a conference as difficult to navigate as the SEC.
While the early season looks pretty easy with UTEP, Toledo and Texas Tech probably getting dispatched by the Hogs, their SEC slate is extremely tough. They start with Texas A&M in AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, followed by road trips to Tennessee and Alabama.
When they finally come home, it's to play SEC favorite Auburn before going back on the road to Ole Miss and LSU and finishing the season at home against Mississippi State and Missouri.
Exactly zero of those are guaranteed wins. You can't run a gauntlet like that if you're one-dimensional. So, the worst case for the Razorbacks is they slip right back into mediocrity with a .500 season or worse.
Auburn
3 of 14
Best Case
In a quirky voting outcome at this week's SEC media days, Auburn was picked as the favorite to win the SEC despite Alabama being picked as the West division champ.
Obviously, that would be a major step forward from a season ago when teams ran through the Tigers defense like a stop sign on a dark country road. But if the hiring of defensive coordinator Will Muschamp takes shape the way the Tigers want it to, all that will change.
"in my opinion, he is the best defensive mind in all of football, not just college football," Auburn coach Gus Malzahn told the media this week in Hoover, Alabama.
Carl Lawson returns to be an All-SEC-caliber defensive end and elite freshman Byron Cowart provides some help getting after the quarterbacks as well.
Offensively, the Tigers don't miss a beat with the graduation of Nick Marshall as Jeremy Johnson lives up to the hype and becomes a star while the running game is electric again. Auburn whips through the tough West, heads to Atlanta and then onto the College Football Playoff.
Worst Case
The holes on defense are just too deep for a one-year turnaround, and the Tigers still have struggles against quality offenses.
It's hard to envision Auburn being worse on that side of the ball than it was a year ago, but it still isn't good enough to be championship-level. A shocking upset by Louisville in the Georgia Dome to start the season starts things on a difficult trajectory.
Johnson winds up throwing too many interceptions and defenses load up against the run to force Auburn to throw the ball. While Duke Williams is a legit target, Auburn can't find anybody else to consistently catch the ball and the offense struggles.
The Tigers lose five games again, including setbacks at home to rivals Georgia and Alabama, and Malzahn begins to hear grumbles.
Florida
4 of 14
Best Case
Former top prospect Will Grier emerges as the perfect quarterback to run new coach Jim McElwain's more traditional pro-style offense.
After building up confidence during the first three games of the season, Grier upsets Tennessee at home to keep the Gators run of dominance over the Vols going.
After getting battle-tested in the next three games against Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU, Grier leads UF to a repeat upset of rival Georgia.
A young offensive line improves throughout the year as Martez Ivey shows Cam Robinson-like skills as a freshman, and FCS All-American graduate transfer Mason Halter stabilizes the worrisome unit.
The Gators piece together enough of a pass rush to make up for the loss of star Dante Fowler, and that makes their defense extremely stout. With a favorable schedule, UF loses just two league games and represents the East in the championship game.
A three-loss finish and a Capital One Bowl appearance gets recruits believing in the McElwain era, and UF is a hot name again.
Worst Case
McElwain inherited a mess at quarterback and offensive line, and they remain huge question marks entering fall camp.
The battle between Grier and Treon Harris is still undecided.
"I don't know how it is going to happen," McElwain said this week, according to the Orlando Sentinel's Edgar Thompson. "I don't know how it is going to go down. I don't know if athleticism is going to happen or is Will being more of a quarterback gonna prevail? We'll find out."
With the line in shambles, UF suffers a couple of injuries early in the year and is forced to play some players who aren't ready. The Gators are upset by Kentucky and then lose to Tennessee to start a difficult SEC stretch.
The Gators never fully recover and suffer a losing season in McElwain's first year.
Georgia
5 of 14
Best Case
Much like the situation in Alabama, a quarterback emerges to be the clear-cut starter for Georgia in fall camp, and that person (the guess here is Brice Ramsey) does enough to have a Hutson Mason-esque season managing the offense.
The quarterbacks won't need to do much because Nick Chubb lives up to all the hype and has a Heisman Trophy season carrying the load.
Sony Michel, A.J. Turman and Keith Marshall are good enough to keep Chubb fresh, and the Dawgs respond well to new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's scheme.
The second year of the Jeremy Pruitt era on defense is a major success as Georgia's pass rush becomes one of the nation's best.
Because UGA always seems to lose a game that keeps it from the national championship conversation, it will do so, but the Bulldogs still do plenty enough to represent the East in Atlanta and waltz their way to a major bowl.
Worst Case
The quarterback issues are worse than anybody thought, and this winds up being a transition year as UGA waits for the arrival of super prospect Jacob Eason to shore up the spot.
Michel stays banged-up early in the season, and Marshall still can't return to the player he was before all the injuries sidelined his promising career. Because of the lack of depth behind him, Chubb gets hurt like Todd Gurley a season ago, and there's little place to turn.
The Bulldogs can't find any consistent receiving targets, so the offense suffers. While the defense has plenty of talent, they're taxed because they're on the field so much and wind up giving up big plays.
Tennessee finally breaks through for a win against Georgia in Neyland, and the Dawgs lose to Missouri, too, ending any shot they had at the championship game. The grumbles about coach Mark Richt come back yet again.
Kentucky
6 of 14
Best Case
Kentucky, it seems, has been on the cusp of breaking through and getting bowl-eligible for a while now. The Wildcats aren't as good as they were back when Andre Woodson played quarterback, but Mark Stoops has brought in talent.
Though they get a tough West draw in Auburn, it isn't an insurmountable schedule.
If quarterback Patrick Towles comes out and realizes his pro potential early (given that he beats out Drew Barker for the starting gig), the Wildcats could shock a bunch of folks if they can beat South Carolina and Florida to start the year.
"Boom" Williams is a star in the making, and this could be a breakout year for the sophomore.
Tennessee also is a bit of a trap game for the Vols as they must travel to Commonwealth Stadium on Halloween the week after a massive showdown at Alabama and before the South Carolina game.
If things line up the way they could, it's not out of the realm of possibility seeing UK with seven wins heading into the rivalry game against Louisville. That would be a huge step for the program.
Worst Case
Kentucky may be making some strides as a program from a talent perspective, but so are several other teams on its schedule.
They won't be favored in any of the early-season games against the Gamecocks, Gators or Missouri, and beating Auburn is a real long shot. If they're inconsistent at quarterback like they were a year ago, starting the season 0-4 in the league won't bode well.
While Stoops has recruited fairly well defensively, it is a massive blow losing Bud Dupree and Za'Darius Smith from a unit that ran out of gas midway through the '14 season. If they can't find some horses on defense (it's Kentucky, get it?) then it will be another difficult season.
The postseason will come and go without UK in it yet again.
LSU
7 of 14
Best Case
Following his arrest last month, quarterback Anthony Jennings has been a major question mark. This past week, coach Les Miles told ESPN.com's Greg Ostendorf he is "confident" Jennings will return to the team to battle Brandon Harris for the starting job.
The Bayou Bengals' quarterback situation was dire a season ago, and it doesn't appear much better on paper this season. But if one of them can realize his massive potential and lead the Tigers, the offense could be stout.
That's because they've got one of the nation's premier talents in running back Leonard Fournette, who began to emerge as the superstar everybody expected toward the end of last season.
With a lockdown secondary carrying the defense, LSU could return to its place among the beasts in the West. An East draw of South Carolina to go along with every-year foe Florida is not a tough slate.
If LSU can get an early-season win over Auburn in Tiger Stadium, it could hit a difficult late-season stretch at Alabama, home against Arkansas, at Ole Miss and home against Texas A&M with an 8-0 record.
A 10-win season would follow if they can attain that.
Worst Case
Maybe offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is going to be hamstrung by his signal-callers again. Not to sound like a broken record, but the Tigers success really is directly tied to whether they can get decent play from the position.
Also, with several off-the-field issues this offseason, including a pending lawsuit with former defensive coordinator John Chavis and several arrests, there may be too many distractions.
"The…guys are going through a legal process, and that legal process will take time," Miles said this week, according to Arkansas News' Eric W. Bolin. "When we get information, we'll make a decision then. I'm very optimistic that a number of those guys will return, only because I know the information."
It's been awhile since new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele led a unit, so if the players don't respond well to him, it could be a transition period there.
Also, though there hasn't been anything to indicate there would be any issues, Steele does share coaching duties with another former head coach and coordinator in defensive line coach Ed Orgeron. If there's any clash of egos there, things could get dicey on that side of the ball.
Especially with the Tigers searching for playmakers in the front seven.
Mississippi
8 of 14
Best Case
Regardless of who currently leads the quarterback race, the most talented signal-caller in the competition to replace Bo Wallace is Chad Kelly.
If Kelly has his head on straight and stays out of trouble, he can be a quality quarterback. If he wins the job and freshman Eric Swinney can team with returning leading rusher Jaylen Walton and Akeem Judd to put up some serviceable rushing numbers, the Rebels could be fine on offense.
The best thing for them will be if star receiver Laquon Treadwell and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil return from gruesome injuries to be their old selves again. When Tunsil comes back, he'll help shore up a line with many questions.
The defense should be strong again, and this will be the year Robert Nkemdiche starts making plays on his own rather than just drawing enough attention so his teammates can.
With an out-of-conference schedule that's a cakewalk and with Vanderbilt and Florida on the schedule, it isn't a tough draw for the Rebs. Nine wins may be the best the Rebs can do, but that wouldn't be a bad year considering all they must replace.
Worst Case
The questions on offense run deep.
Not only are the Rebels trying to find an answer at quarterback, they've also got worries on the offensive line. If Tunsil doesn't return healthy, there will be even more concern.
Treadwell appears on the way back to a full recovery, and he needs to be. If he has lost a step, then players such as newcomer Damore'ea Stringfellow will be depended on to be the top target, and that's not what coach Hugh Freeze wants.
Defensively, the Rebels have too much talent not to be strong, but if the offense can't score points, the defense will have too much pressure on it to be perfect, and that isn't a good recipe for wins.
Because of the light out-of-conference schedule and easy East draw, the Rebels are going to a bowl game regardless. However, they may find themselves toward the bottom of the division if they can't find some offensive playmakers.
Mississippi State
9 of 14
Best Case
Mississippi State has plenty of offensive talent coming back, led by Heisman Trophy-hopeful quarterback Dak Prescott.
There have been times (see Auburn in 2010) when one transcendent offensive star carried a team that got better just because he was at the helm. That's what the Bulldogs are hoping for this season.
They've got a trio of talented running backs who can ensure MSU keeps itself in games on the ground. Add talented receivers such as De'Runnya Wilson and Fred Ross, and Dan Mullen's team should be able to put up points.
There are major concerns on the offensive line, but if that group comes together, MSU could be fine. The Bulldogs must replace some talented players on defense, but they were so deep a season ago that there are players who can step up.
For what it's worth, Mullen doesn't seem concerned, telling FoxSports.com's Teddy Mitrosilis:
"This is my seventh year coming here, and I think every year they've picked us to finish last. It's kind of like a tradition. What I love is that maybe people look past us and say we don't have much of a chance this year. We kind of like that and can go out there with a bit of a chip on (our) shoulder and prove everybody wrong.
"
Getting LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss at home is huge for the Bulldogs, who may not have as strong a season as last year but could still win nine games.
Worst Case
The worst thing that could happen to Mississippi State is if Prescott goes down. If that happens, it's going to be difficult for the Bulldogs to claw their way out of the West.
Also, while they welcome back former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, Geoff Collins bolting for Florida didn't help. Maybe Diaz is an upgrade considering MSU wasn't statistically great a year ago on that side of the ball, but it was opportunistic.
If some of those guys who were role players a season ago on defense can't emerge as dependable starters, MSU could look like a team full of backups on defense.
Finally, the receiving corps can't absorb a loss like Wilson from a year ago. It needs to stay healthy and provide some dependable targets for Prescott. If they don't, MSU will struggle a season after it shone.
Missouri
10 of 14
Best Case
Maybe this is the year everything comes together for Maty Mauk.
The supremely talented signal-caller struggled with his accuracy and turnovers in each of the past two seasons. His flashes of brilliance are strong, though, and if he can capture that version of himself more consistently, Mizzou could be the best in the East again.
If they are, it'll come as a surprise for the third season in a row. They're picked third behind Georgia and Tennessee.
"To be honest, I don't expect them to put us in the Top 25," Mauk told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Dave Matter. "There's no respect there. It's just going to be another year where we have to start from the bottom and come back. We're ready to do that mentally. If we were (ranked) 1 or 101, it doesn't matter to us."
There are tons of question marks in the receiving corps, but the Tigers have a veteran offensive line and they return star running back Russell Hansbrough.
With some strong areas on defense, Mizzou can come out of an open East again this year if Mauk takes a step forward.
Worst Case
Finding replacements for Shane Ray and Markus Golden, one of the nation's most fearsome pass-rushing tandems, certainly won't be easy.
The Tigers have done it before recently with Kony Ealy and Michael Sam, but the candidates aren't as touted this year.
Throw in the loss of defensive tackle Harold Brantley—who was supposed to be a key component of the revamped line—after he was injured in a car wreck, and there are major holes on the defensive front.
With all the stud running backs Mizzou must face such as Nick Chubb, Jonathan Williams, Alex Collins and Jalen Hurd, among others, that may not bode well.
Considering there aren't any proven receivers on offense, even if Mauk makes a big jump, he may not have anybody dependable to throw to. When he starts trying to do too much, mistakes happen.
The first year Mizzou entered the league, it had a losing record before going on its current run. The worst won't put them there, but it's possible that the Tigers fall back to six or seven wins if they can't find answers on the defensive line and at receiver.
South Carolina
11 of 14
Best Case
There were no cartwheels for the Gamecocks following last year's 7-6 record after the media picked them to win the East.
Instead, coach Steve Spurrier made some pretty drastic defensive changes, including bringing Jon Hoke back to help Lorenzo Ward shore up the unit. Maybe adding the longtime NFL assistant is just what the Gamecocks needed.
Quarterback Connor Mitch certainly has the talent to step in for the graduated Dylan Thompson, and if he can find one more dependable target to go along with superstar target Pharoh Cooper (such as Deebo Samuel, maybe?) Carolina could be stellar on offense.
Mike Davis is gone at running back, but David Williams and Brandon Wilds return. That gives Spurrier two dependable weapons to hand the ball off to and help ease Mitch in.
Everybody will know how good Carolina can be early as it starts with North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, Central Florida, Missouri and LSU. All are capable of beating the Gamecocks.
The schedule and all the losses they've absorbed are too difficult for Carolina to get to Atlanta without some surprises, but getting eight or nine wins is not out of the question.
Worst Case
Don't look now, but it's possible that the Gamecocks could start the season 3-7. It may not be likely, but there are plenty of question marks facing the team, and an out-of-conference schedule that includes North Carolina, Central Florida and Clemson isn't very forgiving.
Throw in West foes LSU and Texas A&M, and it looks like a bad year for Spurrier to be reloading.
Mitch is talented but unproven, and behind Cooper there are receiver questions. There are gaps on the offensive line, and none of that even mentions that the Gamecocks were historically poor on defense a season ago.
Many of those starters on that side of the ball return, and that may not be a good thing. The "co-coordinator" labels for Ward and Hoke could cause some friction.
The Gamecocks won't stay down for long, but this may not line up to be a particularly promising season in Columbia.
Tennessee
12 of 14
Best Case
There's so much buzz surrounding UT right now that it's hard to give the Volunteers "dark-horse" status anymore. The media picked them to finish second in the East behind Georgia, and there's talent all over the field.
The Vols get a tough West draw with Arkansas and Alabama, but the best thing for UT is it only leaves the Volunteer State once before it travels to Alabama on Oct. 24, and that's to play vulnerable Florida on the road.
Pitfalls exist in the schedule, but for the first time in a decade there isn't anybody on the slate that UT simply can't beat. The Vols get Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia and South Carolina all at home, so that's huge.
If Joshua Dobbs can duplicate his success toward the end of last season against quality opponents, UT will be hard to handle. The offensive line is a year older and will be better, and Alvin Kamara joins Jalen Hurd in an able stable of running backs.
The Vols' pass rush should be exceptional, and the secondary is a strong point. UT has plenty of young star power, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could win 10 games and head to Atlanta to represent the East.
Worst Case
Going from seven wins to an East contender is a long way, and Dobbs still hasn't proven that he can beat the league's elite.
He needs to be able to make plays against Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas and Oklahoma if the Vols are going to turn a corner.
While the running game should be better, UT was awful along the offensive front a year ago, and there's no guarantee those guys will be good enough to help the Vols put up points.
Having a mobile quarterback helps, but if there are still deep-rooted offensive line issues, UT won't beat anybody of consequence.
Defensively, no middle linebacker stepped up to fill the role of A.J. Johnson during the spring. While the Vols brought in talented defensive tackle recruits Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle, those guys haven't proven their ilk on Saturdays.
If UT can't insert quality players at that center triangle of the front seven, opponents will run all over the Vols. In the first half of the season alone, the Vols must face Samaje Perine, Jonathan Williams, Alex Collins, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake, among others.
Those are losses waiting to happen if the Vols can't get the defensive middle right, and another season of scraping around the .500 mark is a possibility.
Texas A&M
13 of 14
Best Case
Texas A&M has everything set up—quarterback with elite potential, incredible receiving corps, able runners and a steady offensive line—to be dynamic on offense this year.
The biggest missing ingredient is a defense that can get the Aggies to Atlanta.
They went out and plucked revered coordinator John Chavis from division rival LSU, and coach Kevin Sumlin has stockpiled the kind of talent on defense (led by defensive end Myles Garrett) that can be molded into a strong unit.
It's just a matter of Chavis getting them to perform at a higher level.
If A&M can start the year on a high note against Arizona State, the beginning of the season is manageable until the Aggies host Alabama on Oct. 17. Then, things get a little tougher.
But the talent is in place to excel in College Station. Getting to nine or even 10 wins is a possibility with the current roster, and the latter could be enough to have them contending for the West.
Worst Case
Sure, there's plenty of talent on defense, but most of it is very young. Chavis is a brilliant defensive mind, but errors from youngsters can derail close games in a hurry.
Though getting Vanderbilt and South Carolina from the East looks favorable, A&M still has to navigate the mine field that is the SEC West, and it must do so with a bunch of talented kids on defense.
Also, the running backs may be talented, but they're largely unproven. Tra Carson hasn't shown he can be the primary back, and A&M proved last year that it was a much better team when it could establish the run.
Sumlin is known as a pass-game guru, but being one-dimensional gets you beat in the SEC. If the Aggies can't find a ground game or some playmakers on defense, it could wind up 7-5 and playing in a low-level bowl.
Vanderbilt
14 of 14
Best Case
With Western Kentucky, Austin Peay, MTSU and Houston on the schedule, the Commodores aren't guaranteed to sweep their out-of-conference schedule. This is the team that lost by 30 to Temple last year, after all.
But if Derek Mason's team can sweep those four, there is an outside chance Vanderbilt could beat Kentucky and maybe another team to get to six wins, though it seems like a long shot.
To do that, the 'Dores will need to find a replacement for quarterback Patton Robinette (who quit football due to concussions) among Wade Freebeck, Johnny McCrary and Shawn Stankavage. Highly touted signal-caller Kyle Shurmur joins the competition as well.
If Vanderbilt can find somebody to consistently throw the ball rather than the derby that transpired a year ago, it has a good runner in Ralph Webb.
With Mason taking over the defense, Vanderbilt could be much better on that side of the ball in 2015. They'll need to be in order to get bowl-eligible.
Worst Case
Starting the season against a high-powered WKU team that can beat Vanderbilt isn't the best way to begin. If the Hilltoppers pull the upset, it could be a long year.
It may be one anyway.
The fact is there aren't very many guaranteed playmakers on either side of the ball for Vanderbilt. If the Commodores have quarterback issues again, the team won't score many points. Though the defense showed flashes of improvement, especially in the season-ending loss to Tennessee, it also needs star power.
A quick look at the schedule shows that 2-10 is a possibility for Mason's second season, and if that happens, there probably won't be a third.
Quotes obtained from the SEC Network telecast of media days, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports' composite rankings unless otherwise noted. All statistics gathered from CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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