Realistic Upsets That Would Send the 2025 College Football Season into Chaos
The only status quo in college football is pandemonium.
Even in a packed Week 1 of the season with marquee matchups, a monumental upset was squeezed in when two-touchdown underdog Florida State dropped Alabama by 14 points.
It's simply going to happen every week. So, if you scoff at the potential for an inferior team to beat yours, just wait. Rarely do teams make it through the year unscathed, and they've got to survive those weekends when things don't go their way.
Of the 40-50 possible upsets this season, these are the ones we believe would have the most significant impact.
To make the list, the potential upsetter had to be ranked 20th or lower (or unranked), and the prospective team upset is either ranked high or gave the world something to think about with a strong first week on the gridiron.
South Florida over No. 13 Florida (September 6)
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How scary is South Florida, really?
We don't know the answer to that question just yet, but coach Alex Golesh's Bulls opened the season flexing with a 34-7 domination of Group of Five darling Boise State.
This weekend, they take their up-tempo rodeo on the road to the Swamp to face a talented young Florida team that could be special or could fall flat. While it's unclear how USF will perform against a strong Power Four team, the Gators remain an even greater mystery.
Vegas doesn't think much of USF's chances. The Bulls head to Gainesville a 17.5-point underdog, according to DraftKings.
Can Byrum Brown shake off the inconsistency and rust from sitting much of last season? Will Todd Orlando's aggressive, veteran defense look that way against DJ Lagway and a young stable of weapons?
Losing this game doesn't seem likely for UF, but coach Billy Napier's program needs to be on major alert. This is a USF team that also plays Miami this year, so it's got its slingshot ready.
Mississippi State over No. 12 Arizona State (September 6)
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From a national perspective, there aren't a lot of overall big-picture concerns about this game, but it's all about perception for Arizona State.
Everybody regards the Big 12 as the worst of the Power 4 conferences, and the Sun Devils were the College Football Playoff representative from that league last year. They then went out and nearly upset Texas in front of the world.
However, "nearly" isn't enough. Coach Dillingham's squad now aims to prove its run wasn't a fluke, even without star Cam Skattebo, who has departed for the NFL.
To do that, beating SEC bottom-dweller Mississippi State in Starkville this weekend is important. Last year, Arizona State beat the Bulldogs 30-23 in Tempe in a game nobody paid much attention to.
This year, surprisingly even after their 2024 run, the Sun Devils are less than a touchdown favorite on DraftKings. That shows that the nation still really doesn't respect that team or that league.
If Arizona State takes care of business against Jeff Lebby's Bulldogs this weekend, it won't cause a whole lot of stir in the national spectrum. If it loses, though, folks will continue to yawn in the direction of the Big 12.
Georgia Tech over No. 8 Clemson (September 13)
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A season-opening loss to LSU was a tough blow for Dabo Swinney's set of Tigers, but it's done nothing to dampen the season's expectations. All Clemson's goals are still in front of it.
But the ACC looks much better this year with Miami, Florida State, SMU and perhaps even Louisville and others with potential to blossom.
A looming road trip in a couple of weeks to Atlanta won't be easy. Awaiting the Tigers there will be the Ramblin' Wreck from Georgia Tech and senior quarterback Haynes King, who is one of the best veteran runners in the nation at the position.
Coach Brent Key's team is always tough and rugged, and while they didn't have the season opener they wanted, they still went out West and won a sloppy game against Colorado.
Key is known for defensive schemes that keep games close and give his team a fighting chance until the final whistle.
Nothing would drop Clemson's chances for the playoffs like an early-season letdown in the ACC, and Georgia Tech has played the role of spoiler before. This one's worth watching. A loss could make a wide-open ACC even more unclear.
No. 22 Tennessee over No. 4 Georgia (September 13)
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On the same day the Yellow Jackets host Clemson, their hated rival Georgia Bulldogs will travel to Rocky Top to take on a Tennessee team that dominated Syracuse in its season opener but is still a bit of an enigma.
They'll get a chance to make a huge statement and cement a potential path back to the playoffs if they can upset the Bulldogs in Neyland Stadium.
That's easy to write and harder to do. UGA has whipped up on Tennessee eight consecutive seasons, and coach Josh Heupel's offense hasn't confused the Dawgs at all. With Joey Aguilar leading the charge, will that be different?
To win, Tennessee needs a balanced offensive attack. It must also find a way to contain Georgia's passing game over the middle, something it has struggled to do under coordinator Tim Banks.
Gunner Stockton isn't going to beat you deep, but UGA is deep and talented all over the field. The Vols have weapons of their own and are playing at home. With only a tune-up game against ETSU in the way, the Vols need to be healthy.
The Vols will be Georgia's first true test.
A win in this one, and Tennessee could shake up the hierarchy in the SEC.
Virginia over No. 14 Florida State (September 26)
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Everybody is rightfully talking about the Florida State Seminoles after their season-opening domination of Alabama.
Coach Mike Norvell's team has a fairly easy schedule this year with (at a glance) only potential pitfalls against No. 5 Miami, No. 8 Clemson and No. 13 Florida. But don't chalk up 9-3 or better just yet.
Remember this team won just two games a year ago, and while they went out and reloaded in the transfer portal and look deep, much more aggressive and talented, they've got to consistently prove it.
Overlooking a game like a road trip to Virginia on September 26 could be dangerous. While Tony Elliott has struggled to build a program in Charlottesville, grabbing quarterback Chandler Morris from the transfer portal could transform that offense.
The Hoos beat Coastal Carolina 48-7 in their opener and looked like a different team. Of course, doing that against a Power 4 opponent is another thing altogether.
There's no question this will be as rowdy of an environment as Virginia can put up there, and if Elliott's team can go out and win a game like North Carolina State this upcoming weekend, they may have some momentum. It could change the narrative on the ACC.
No. 20 Ole Miss over No. 3 LSU (September 27)
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After beating Clemson on Saturday night, LSU has heard several pundits across the nation argue that the Bayou Bengals may be the best team in the country.
This is a team that can't afford to read its own headlines.
Coach Brian Kelly may have the best all-around team he's had since coming to the bayou, and the SEC schedule is rife with potential potholes. One they always have to watch out for is hated rival Ole Miss, where they must travel on September 27.
If you recall last year, the Tigers won 29-26 in overtime in a wild one. Coach Lane Kiffin's team is going to want payback, and the Rebels are one of the three quiet giants in the SEC this year, along with Tennessee and Texas A&M.
Any of those could be underranked, and the Rebels with Austin Simmons at quarterback, Kewan Lacy at running back, a veteran stable of transfer receivers and a loaded defense, could be on the cusp of the playoff run that barely eluded them last year.
A September showdown in Oxford again could shift things around in the SEC and give us an idea of contender or pretender heading into fall. How big of an upset would this be? Given all the LSU buzz right now, it's worth a mention.
Washington over No. 1 Ohio State (September 27)
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Nobody is talking about the Washington Huskies, and that's a mistake.
Coach Jedd Fisch's teams always take a leap in Year 2, and this program is just a season removed from finishing national runner-up. Not only that, there's a mixture of elite veteran talent like running back Jonah Coleman, defensive backs Ephesians Prysock and Tacario Davis, as well as a phenomenal young talent in quarterback Demond Williams Jr.
They get to host the defending national champion Buckeyes on September 27, and the latter almost certainly will be a huge favorite.
Despite a rugged defense that looks like its among the nation's best and a season-opening win over Texas, there are still some things OSU must improve like the passing game with new quarterback Julian Sayin.
A cross-country trip just in front of a game against top-15 Illinois seems like a danger-zone game for coach Ryan Day's team. In Columbus, success is measured in national titles, and the Buckeyes have the sport's best program right now. They've got the proverbial target on their backs.
Beating Ohio State could put the Huskies back on the map and cause a stir around the nation.
No. 23 Indiana over No. 8 Oregon (October 11)
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Let's face it: You still don't really respect Indiana, do you?
Sure, Curt Cignetti is hilarious to listen to with his deadpan comments and "don't-give-a-flip" attitude, and what he's done with a dead program in Bloomington is absolutely amazing.
But the Hoosiers don't play a stacked schedule, and once they got to Ohio State last year, they were hammered 38-15 before Notre Dame dispatched them in the playoffs. This season, that slate is a little stiffer.
Games against Illinois (September 20), Iowa (September 27) and Penn State (November 8) loom large, but so does an October 11 trip to Eugene to take on the eighth-ranked Ducks, another playoff team from a season ago.
While Oregon looked stout in Week 1 and quarterback Dante Moore showed plenty of promise, it was only against the lowly Montana State Bobcats, so nobody really knows what Dan Lanning's team has.
This would be a chance for IU to transition from a "cute little story" to prove its more than just a one-year wonder. With transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza and veteran talent on both sides of the ball, this Hoosiers team has a chance.
They've got several opportunities to prove it on a big stage.
Louisville over No. 5 Miami (October 17)
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With Carson Beck under center and a fast, aggressive defense, the Miami Hurricanes could make national noise again this year after just missing the playoffs last season.
An opening win over Notre Dame in an excellent football game where both teams looked talented on both sides of the ball did nothing to dampen those expectations. With a veteran like Beck running the show, The U may be the best team in the ACC.
On the flipside, though, Louisville already has made one conference title game under coach Jeff Brohm, who is entering his third season at his alma mater. They've gone out and loaded the quarterback room with a veteran each year, and this season, that guy is Miller Moss.
Toss in Isaac Brown, who may be the nation's top running back, and this is a team that's going to beat a team or two you aren't expecting in 2025.
They travel to Coral Gables in mid-October, and spoiling Miami's good vibes would be a perfect catalyst to a quality season.
The good news for Miami is that midseason gauntlet of South Florida, Florida, Florida State and Louisville is broken up by two bye weeks (between the Gators and 'Noles on September 27) and between the 'Noles and Cardinals (on October 11). The bad news is Louisville comes at the end of that brutal stretch.
Nebraska over No. 2 Penn State (November 22)
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Potential potholes like Oregon (September 27), Ohio State (November 1) and Indiana (November 8) exist in Penn State's schedule, but the Nittany Lions can't put their sole focus on those and lose sight of others.
Games like a trip to Iowa on October 18 and hosting Nebraska on November 22 could be tough. The Huskers, especially, could be a potential pitfall.
Matt Rhule's team should be much better this season, but a 20-17 season-opening win over Cincinnati wasn't rife with style points. Still, Dylan Raiola gives the Cornhuskers another element they aren't used to having.
By the time they travel to Happy Valley, Penn State will have run its gauntlet. Winning two out of three of their big ones likely will mean the Lions are in store for the playoffs. But they cannot afford to get lackadaisical.
We all have seen those Big Ten slobberknockers where grind-it-out football rules the day, and this has the potential to be one of those ugly ones late in the season. If Nebraska could pull through, not only could it boot PSU from the playoffs, but it may also give Rhule a signature win to kick-start his program.
Arkansas over No. 7 Texas (November 22)
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What should we make of the Arkansas Razorbacks?
That's a question which will be answered long before the Razorbacks take on Texas in late November, but no matter how they are, the Hogs are likely to be heavy underdogs to the Longhorns.
It's not always easy to read those numbers, though. Last year, Texas only beat the Hogs 20-10 on its way to a deep College Football Playoff run. This season, there are even more questions surrounding the team that entered the year a favorite.
Though the Longhorns started the season ranked No. 1, a disappointing, season-opening loss to Ohio State where celebrated quarterback Arch Manning looked very average, as did his surrounding playmakers, have many wondering if they're overrated.
Arkansas is playing to save coach Sam Pittman's job, and with a veteran quarterback like Taylen Green running the show, the Razorbacks have some talent and could do some shocking teams this year, much like they did Tennessee last year.
This late in the season, losing to the Hogs could rattle the playoff picture.
Auburn over No. 21 Alabama (November 29)
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If you're an Alabama fan, your season already is in chaos and turmoil.
The Crimson Tide aren't used to losing the way they have in the brief tenure of coach Kalen DeBoer, who looked overmatched and simply miserable in the team's loss to Florida State to open the season.
It's not just fans who are concerned; boosters and administrators are reportedly questioning DeBoer's fit just 14 games into his tenure as Saban's successor.
More than one story this week has mentioned a buyout of more than $60 million, and speculation abounds just how long a program used to winning championships will slog around in mediocrity.
Now, multiply the angst and anger by about 100 million if you throw in a loss to Auburn.
DeBoer's fate could be sealed by the end of the season, but we're dealing in hypotheticals here, and the Tide still have plenty enough talent to turn things around this season. Even if they do, though, coach Hugh Freeze has a different team on the Plains than he has.
With Jackson Arnold under center and weapons all around him, Auburn could make a big move. How sweet would it be for them to drive that nail in the DeBoer era? Talk about chaos. Reopening the biggest job in college football this offseason would be massive news.
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