2025 College Football Week 1 Upsets that Could Actually Happen
College football's muscle-flexers almost never completely hold serve. There are always upsets that take place, and many of those happen in the early season when Las Vegas and pundits have inflated opinions of certain teams or others rise from the ashes of obscurity.
In what is expected to be arguably the best-ever Week 1 of the season, most eyes are going to be focused on Texas-Ohio State and Clemson-LSU, among others, and rightfully so.
But there are lots of projected one-sided affairs that could wind up producing stunners.
We aren't going to sit over here and say that a slight underdog beating the favorite will qualify as an "upset," but several spreads of six or more points on DraftKings easily could go the other direction.
From a slew of SEC programs facing opponents that could cause sweat stains to a bunch of potential West Coast wildness, we're tracking several possible high-alert games this weekend. Now, this isn't to say these upsets are indeed going to happen.
These favorites need to be on the lookout, though, for sure.
South Florida (+6.5) over Boise State (Thursday)
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Right at the start of the full-week slate, there are a handful of Thursday's early games that football fans everywhere will want to pay attention to.
That starts with last year's Group of Five playoff participant, Boise State. The Broncos travel across country to play the South Florida Bulls in the heat and humidity of Tampa. Coach Spencer Danielson's team has earned the rights to be the favorites, but this game doesn't set up very well for Boise.
We've already mentioned the weather, but the Bulls underachieved a season ago in Alex Golesh's second season, chiefly because of injuries to quarterback Byrum Brown. The signal-caller could have sought greener pastures in the transfer portal, but he stuck with the green and gold.
He's the perfect dual-threat player to run Golesh's tempo offense, and the Broncos' vaunted defense is going to have its hands full in the humidity with the fast-paced Brown leading the charge.
Look for this one to go down to the wire, but the wrong team may be favored here. USF is a Group of Five sleeper that could jump-start a huge rebound season by beating the boys from Boise in Tampa.
East Carolina (+14) over North Carolina State (Thursday)
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If you're looking at this one going, "Nah, it isn't going to happen," you must have a short-term memory. The last time the Pirates and Wolfpack took the field, ECU upset its instate rivals 26-21 in the Military Bowl.
Now, suddenly, the Pack are double-digit favorites? Man, that seems steep.
Once coach Blake Harrell took over as interim, he completely turned around the team. The Pirates went 5-1 down the stretch and capped the year with a memorable upset. If quarterback Katin Houser can protect the ball, ECU has enough runners to replace Rahjai Harris, and this offense could eat again.
CJ Bailey is a star-in-the-making under center for coach Dave Doeren, but coming off a true freshman season where he was inconsistent, he hasn't proven he can be a dependable weapon yet. Plus, a Pack defense that it normally can count on is rebuilding, too.
N.C. State has more talent than the Bucs, and it certainly should win this game, but there is a lot of motivation for a G5 team to beat up (again) on Big Brother instate. This is a danger-zone game for the Pack, and it could go either way.
Cincinnati (+7) over Nebraska
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This is a neat early-season setting for a sneaky-fun Week 1 game between the Big 12's Cincinnati Bearcats (still feels weird to say) and the Big Ten's Nebraska Cornhuskers.
The game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, heating up the surface where the star-laded Chiefs of the NFL normally play.
A close college football game the week before the pros kick off would be a nice appetizer.
There is predictably a lot of excitement for Matt Rhule's third year in Lincoln with Dylan Raiola a potential budding star under center for the Huskers. Toss in running back Kwinten Ives, and a stable of receivers including Jacory Barney and Nyziah Hunter but led by Kentucky transfer Dane Key, and Nebraska could be much-improved.
Don't sleep on Cincy, though. Brendan Sorsby — when healthy — can match Raiola's playmaking ability, and he has a tough, experienced line in front of him. But the Bearcats need offensive weapons, and the defense had plenty of holes last year.
It's a make-or-break season for coach Scott Satterfield, and a strong start is guaranteed if the Bearcats can upset Nebraska. A win like this could flip the program.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Syracuse (+14) over Tennessee
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Most likely, this is one of the two greatest long shots on this list. After all, Syracuse lost a whole lot of star power on both sides of the ball, led by quarterback Kyle McCord, who was drafted by his hometown Philly Eagles in the sixth round.
Rocky Top's Big Orange has more talent than the Orange all over the field.
But Tennessee is an enigma, too. After Nico Iamaleava and the Vols parted ways the day before the spring game, coach Josh Heupel went on a nationwide search for a starting quarterback and settled on UCLA's Joey Aguilar, who, oddly, departed Westwood when Iamaleava landed there.
Plus, the Vols have so much youth at receiver, it's uncertain who will step up and catch Aguilar's passes.
Tennessee's best defensive player (cornerback Jermod McCoy) is still recovering from offseason knee surgery and won't play, so the Orange have a shot in Atlanta, where this game will be played.
Fran Brown is a good coach, and offensive coordinator Jeff Nixon turned around McCord's fortunes a season ago. He could do the same with Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli, who will take over under center.
It's a tall order asking for an upset of the Vols, but who knows what either team will look like?
Florida Atlantic (+14.5) over Maryland
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You haven't heard of Zach Kittley, but you need to remember the name. He's an offensive mastermind who coordinated terrific units at Houston Baptist, Western Kentucky and Texas Tech before getting the head coaching gig at Florida Atlantic.
Though the Owls were just 3-9 a season ago, they added the Conference USA offensive player of the year in quarterback Caden Veltkamp from the transfer portal after he threw for 3,108 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while running for seven more touchdowns at Western Kentucky.
Now, he teams with Kittley, who is the youngest coach in the Football Bowl Subdivision, for an explosive combination. This is a coach who helped mold Patrick Mahomes in Lubbock and Bailey Zappe while at WKU.
When you take into consideration that the Terps are coming off a 4-8 season in their first year in the post-Taulia Tagovaiola era and they just recently named true freshman Malik Washington as the starting signal-caller over UCLA transfer Justyn Martin and Khristian Martin, this is a team that's far away from answers.
Coach Mike Locksley always has offensive weaponry, but Maryland has struggled on defense recently, and it has a grueling Big Ten schedule on the horizon. Things are far from settled in this game.
Toledo (+7.5) over Kentucky
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You'd think Jason Candle would have another head coaching job now, but the 16-year veteran returns to Toledo where he's built the Rockets into a MAC power.
Now, he has the chance to pull off a huge upset of an SEC team for the second year in a row.
A season ago, quarterback Tucker Gleason and the Rockets destroyed Mississippi State 41-17 in Starkville, and now, they will head to Lexington to take on another very vulnerable team in Kentucky.
It's difficult finding any SEC wins for Mark Stoops, whose team sputtered to a 3-9 record a season ago and are banking on the resurgence of quarterback Zach Calzada's career to improve on that this year.
This isn't going to be an easy kick-starter. Gleason returns after a '24 season that saw him throw for 2,793 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions, adding 364 rushing yards and seven more scores.
The Rockets actually are receiving more AP top 25 votes than the 'Cats. Receiver Junior Vandeross III is back, too, as well as star players at all three levels of the defense.
Throw in running back Chip Trayanum — who played RB at Arizona State and LB at Ohio State — and he is an every-down bruiser back who could cause Kentucky major issues.
The Wildcats are on upset alert right now.
Florida State (+13.5) over Alabama
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Watching last season unravel for the Florida State Seminoles was a sight to behold as everything from the collapse of DJ Uiagalelei to an injury-riddled roster on both sides of the ball to a transfer portal failure all led to a forgettable season.
Now, Mike Norvell has gone from an undefeated regular season in 2023 to a hot-seat conversation. That's why in the offseason, he lured UCF head coach Gus Malzahn to be his offensive coordinator, plucked quarterback Thomas Castellanos from the portal after his transfer to Boston College and seems committed to turning things around.
But can they do it with a shocking upset of Alabama in Tallahassee?
Nothing would scream "we're back" (and put Kalen DeBoer on notice in Tuscaloosa) more quickly.
This is a dangerous game for the Crimson Tide. While there is a lot of excitement and there are also a lot of weapons around new starting quarterback Ty Simpson, he is far from a proven commodity.
Bama should have a strong defense, an elite offensive line and a group of playmakers led by Ryan Williams on the perimeter. But Florida State is a different team, too. This is at least worth a watch.
Hawaii (+17.5) over Arizona
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Even with Micah Alejado basically playing on one leg after what looked like a nasty injury suffered against Stanford early in the second half on Saturday, the redshirt freshman gutted it out and led the Rainbow Warriors to a clutch win.
While a 23-20 victory was short on style points, getting a win over a Power Four program was absolutely massive. Now, coach Timmy Chang's team will try to make it two in a row when they travel to Arizona this week.
It won't be easy.
Alejado needs to be much more mobile this week if they're going to beat the Wildcats, so he needs a good week of rehab on the lower leg injury. Plus, the offensive firepower Hawaii faces gets a major uptick, too.
Noah Fifita leads Arizona's attack, and while Tetairoa McMillan is off to the NFL, the Wildcats have playmakers around Fifita such as Texas State transfer running back Ismail Mahdi and receivers Kris Hutson and Chris Hunter.
Brent Brennan's first year in Tucson was not a memorable one, and Arizona has a lot of uncertainties. But they seem to be a better team on paper than Hawaii. We'll find out Saturday.
Colorado State (+21.5) over Washington
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This would be the biggest upset of the entire slate of predictions here, but don't sleep on coach Jay Norvell's Rams. He's proven he's a good football coach, and he's slowly building that program.
With a talented signal-caller in Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi who is a three-year starter and one of the top defenses in the Mountain West Conference returning, Colorado State could be a sleeper.
This is a team that went 8-5 and 6-1 in the league a season ago and has a lot of returning talent, so while a Washington Huskies team that is just a year removed from a national runner-up finish should take care of business at home, CSU isn't a pushover.
Second-year coach Jedd Fisch slowly saw some progress in the Huskies' first season in the Big Ten a year ago, and they have one of college football's most exciting young players in quarterback Demond Williams Jr.
When you throw in 1,000-yard rusher Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston, there is a lot of weaponry on that side of the ball for the offensive-minded Fisch.
Defensively, a top-tier secondary with playmakers like Tacario Davis and Ephesians Prysock should make things difficult on Fowler-Nicolosi, too.
This would be a monumental upset, but it could happen. Norvell has talent, too.
UCLA (+6.5) over Utah
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On one hand, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is supposed to have a contender once again in the Big 12, but the Utes haven't played championship-caliber football in a couple of years.
This is a brand new team, though, as the program moved on from oft-injured quarterback Cam Rising. Whittingham beefed up in the transfer portal, nabbing dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier and star running back Wayshawn Parker.
They're going to get to run behind one of the top offensive lines in the nation, led by Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, and the defense is going to be stout, too.
But UCLA is an enigma with a storyline worth watching. Second-year coach DeShaun Foster brought in Tennessee transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and the running back trio of Jalen Berger, Jaivian Thomas and Anthony Woods, this could be an offense transformed.
Iamaleava was once of the top prospects in the country, and though his first year starting on Rocky Top wasn't great, he led the team to the College Football Playoff before bolting.
Now, because of a messy exit from Knoxville and Iamaleava's undeniable talent, everybody is going to be watching to see how things turn out in Los Angeles.
Getting a shocking win over the Utes could be Step 1 to the Iamaleava era getting off to a strong start in Westwood.
Virginia Tech (+7.5) over South Carolina (Sunday)
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Hokies coach Brent Pry sits on one of the hottest seats in all of college football.
Virginia Tech has been wandering through the college football wilderness since the end of the Frank Beamer era, and proud fans are wondering if they'll ever find their way out.
With an offense that's led by quarterback Kyron Drones, running back Terion Stewart and Tennessee transfer receiver Cameron Seldon, they've got some possible tough players.
But beginning the season against Shane Beamer's upstart South Carolina Gamecocks won't be easy. With LaNorris Sellers entering his redshirt sophomore season as a seasoned starter, the Gamecocks are a trendy pick for the College Football Playoff.
If Virginia Tech can come out with a huge victory in the early season, it would go a long way toward saving Pry's job. On the other hand, Beamer's team getting a gritty, tough out-of-conference win during Week 1 would prepare them for the SEC schedule.
This line seems pretty low considering all the hubbub around the Gamecocks, so you have to think the Hokies may be better than some think. This could be a sneaky-fun showdown that you should pay attention to that's a bit off the radar.
Plus, it's on Sunday, too, so everybody will be watching.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
