Every Big Ten Football Team's Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for 2015
For Big Ten fans who always look at the glass half-full or prefer to say it's half-empty, you've all come to the right place as the offseason starts to come to an end.
These are the best- and worst-case scenarios for each of the 14 teams in the Big Ten, from defending champion Ohio State down to rebuilding Purdue.
Of course, with any of these stories, these are the best and worst probable scenarios for these teams, judging by their overall talent and schedule setup.
The best and worst possible cases for everyone is to either go 15-0 and win every title imaginable or lose all 12 of your regular-season games.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at how this upcoming season could realistically work out in a Big Ten that has two strong College Football Playoff contenders and several wild cards that could disrupt things for the top teams.
Illinois
1 of 14
Best Case
Illinois' experience on offense, which includes junior quarterback Wes Lunt and senior playmakers Josh Ferguson and Geronimo Allison, leads to improvement throughout the season. Breakout receiver Mike Dudek returns from his ACL injury in the middle of the campaign to give the Illini an added surge for a tough back half of the season.
Tim Beckman's squad opens the season with a few nonconference wins and hits the Big Ten schedule with some momentum. With a couple of upsets, the Illini return to the postseason and keep moving forward in what should be a crucial season for the program.
Worst Case
The defense struggles with explosive plays again—it ranked 116th in allowing plays of more than 20 yards in 2014—even with the mounds of experience in every unit. Offensively, the losses of Dudek and some starting linemen lead to a season of struggle in Champaign.
Illinois drops a couple of early-season games and begins a long slide in conference play that starts with a home game against Nebraska and continues with Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State. After a game against Purdue, the schedule picks up in intensity again as Illinois only records four wins on the year.
Indiana
2 of 14
Best Case
The Hoosiers offense gains important balance as senior quarterback Nate Sudfeld returns to an offense that had outputs of 11, 24 and 68 passing yards in the first few games following his injury. Jordan Howard continues at the level that made him one of the nation's most productive running backs at UAB last season. The defense improves behind a better front seven.
Indiana's softer start to the schedule nets it three or four wins heading into a home game against Ohio State and the start of the Big Ten schedule. That early boost gets the Hoosiers to knock off a few conference opponents and become bowl-eligible with a 6-6 or a surprise 7-5 record.
Worst Case
Indiana looks like, well, Indiana again. The Hoosiers have only won four or five games in all but one of their last five seasons—and the odd one out was a 1-11 debacle. The lack of experience on defense hurts a struggling unit even more in the long run, as the offense sorely misses star running back Tevin Coleman.
A rough start to the season in nonconference play sends Indiana reeling into the Big Ten schedule, where it faces Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State in the span of four weeks. The Hoosiers sputter into Purdue at the end of the season and lose the rivalry contest to close yet another losing campaign.
Iowa
3 of 14
Best Case
The offense, which only returns five starters this season, gets a much-needed jolt with the new faces in the starting lineup. Quarterback C.J. Beathard has a good year with the Iowa passing attack—and a running game that shows signs of life—as the defense improves on stopping big plays through the air.
Iowa's schedule does the Hawkeyes some favors as they open with four straight nonconference wins to start the season. The Big Ten schedule features some road games at Wisconsin and Nebraska, which Iowa splits thanks to some improved play in close contests. Kirk Ferentz gets that season he needs in Iowa City as the Hawkeyes contend for the Big Ten West title with only a pair of losses.
Worst Case
The turnover on offense, especially at both tackle spots, doesn't help an attack that looked toothless in a few games last season. New starters in the middle of Iowa's defense—at tackle and middle linebacker—cause the unit to take a step back, which only hurts the offense and special teams even more.
Iowa drops a pair of nonconference games to Iowa State and Pittsburgh early in the season and starts the Big Ten campaign with a big defeat at Wisconsin. Letdown games on a favorable schedule and losses to Minnesota and Nebraska put Iowa at just six wins heading into a bowl game, which Iowa hasn't won since 2010.
Maryland
4 of 14
Best Case
Maryland stays relatively healthy throughout the year for another solid season in Big Ten play. More experience at running back and wide receiver contributes to a better-looking offense, and the talent in the secondary helps alleviate the losses across the front seven and on the coaching staff.
The Terps record three straight wins to start the season, and they match up well against the Big 12's West Virginia. Even with tough games against Ohio State and Michigan State on the road, Maryland improves its record from last season and lands in a bigger bowl game. Head coach Randy Edsall enters a huge 2016 campaign with momentum from the Terps' recent rise in recruiting.
Worst Case
The overall lack of experience across the depth chart, especially at defensive line and linebacker, haunts Maryland for the entire season. The offense sputters with a new quarterback and questions on the line, and the defense takes a step backward after all its turnover.
Maryland struggles to impress in nonconference play and tastes defeat to open the Big Ten schedule against both Michigan and Ohio State. By the time Maryland reaches November contests against Indiana and Rutgers, it will be needing wins in order to become bowl-eligible. The Terps fall short at 5-7 as Edsall inches closer to the exit.
Michigan
5 of 14
Best Case
The energy and optimism from Jim Harbaugh's arrival at Michigan energize a roster ready to return to relevancy in the Big Ten race. The Wolverines start to figure things out on offense with their new leadership and enter the Big Ten schedule after a few big nonconference wins.
Michigan plays spoiler to one of its biggest rivals with a huge upset win at the Big House against either Michigan State or Ohio State. With a signature win for Harbaugh and remarkable improvement across the board, Michigan returns to the postseason looking for double-digit wins and momentum for the 2016 campaign.
Worst Case
As Bleacher Report's Ben Kercheval put it earlier this week, "This program is in bad shape. [Harbaugh] deserves room to produce results." Michigan's offensive attack proves to be a major work in progress throughout the campaign as the defense adjusts to a new regime.
Michigan's nonconference slate to open the season doesn't do it any favors, and it drops an opener against Utah and at least one of the home games against Oregon State and BYU. An improving Big Ten focuses on beating up the rebuilding Wolverines, and they have to scrape to just make a bowl game in Harbaugh's first season.
Michigan State
6 of 14
Best Case
The Spartans successfully replicate the offensive explosion they had in the second half of the 2014 season, even with new starters at running back, wide receiver and the offensive line. Connor Cook improves in pass efficiency and becomes a Heisman Trophy candidate alongside a defense that continues to be one of the best in the country.
Michigan State gets revenge on Oregon from last year with a big home win early in the season and knocks off a pair of upset-minded programs on the road in Michigan and Nebraska. The Spartans then go to Ohio State and defeat the defending champions in one of the biggest games of the entire college football season. They win the Big Ten title in Indianapolis and head to the College Football Playoff.
Worst Case
Michigan State's offense takes a step back with its new starters and lacks the same punch it had in high-scoring wins last season. And, as SB Nation's Bill Connelly notes, "It's hard to worry about this defense, but cornerback is a potential red flag." The Spartans miss the leadership of star cornerback Trae Waynes in the secondary and the overall guidance of former coordinator Pat Narduzzi.
Sparty stumbles early with another loss to Oregon and takes another tough loss on the road at either Michigan or Nebraska. Ohio State wins in the Horseshoe to completely knock the Spartans out of title contention, and they are relegated to a standard bowl game.
Minnesota
7 of 14
Best Case
Minnesota continues its progressive climb under head coach Jerry Kill, even with several new faces at offensive skill positions and along both lines. The Golden Gophers take care of the ball on offense and develop defensively against some of the tougher teams on their schedule.
After a competitive loss to TCU, Minnesota jumps out to a five-game winning streak against Colorado State, Kent State, Ohio, Northwestern and Nebraska. With home wins against Nebraska and Michigan, Minnesota closes in as a conference contender. These Golden Gophers get nine wins, including a victory over Wisconsin, and emerge as the surprise winner of the Big Ten West.
Worst Case
The amount of young offensive starters hurts in the long run as the defense fails to live up to expectations with its returning experience. Kill and Co. can't find that same magic in close games, and the struggles begin early for the team.
Minnesota opens with a big loss against TCU and finds itself in a fight to avoid a letdown loss the next week at Colorado State. The Gophers fail to capitalize on the Nebraska and Wisconsin combo of home games and hit a big bump on the road against Ohio State and Iowa in November. Minnesota takes a step back instead of forward and struggles to stay bowl-eligible.
Nebraska
8 of 14
Best Case
Nebraska's new-look offense under first-year head coach Mike Riley hits a new level with athletic playmakers such as De'Mornay Pierson-El, Terrell Newby and Jordan Westerkamp. Some fresh faces on defense do well in a new system, and the smooth reset from Bo Pelini works all across the roster.
The Huskers benefit from a favorable home conference schedule—Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State and Iowa all come to Memorial Stadium—after getting through their nonconference slate. Nebraska wins the Big Ten West in its first season under Riley and plays for the title in Indianapolis.
Worst Case
A first year under any new head coach is going to be met with some difficulty, and the Huskers hit that in Week 1 with BYU. A road loss at Miami could have Nebraska at 1-2 heading into homecoming and then the Big Ten slate.
The offense still struggles with turnovers—it ranked No. 95 nationally last season in that department—as the defense slides down the stat charts for another season. Riley's team fights to get just a .500 record in conference play, and the program once again finds itself in that infamous four- or five-loss rut.
Northwestern
9 of 14
Best Case
Northwestern's loss of a starting quarterback becomes a blessing in disguise for an offense that was seventh-worst in yards per passing attempt and barely any better in yards per carry. Same goes for the offensive line, which loses two veteran starters—but, again, from a bad offense. New faces give the offense a fresh reset next to an experienced defense that has the potential to be a tough one in the Big Ten.
The Wildcats open the season with three nonconference wins and start to build momentum into league play. Improved play in close games picks up a few wins that were dropped last season, and they bounce back with a season of seven or eight victories.
Worst Case
The new players don't help out the abysmal offense as it faces another bad season. On defense, the loss of a pair of experienced linebackers from last year's squad causes a drop in production. The woes in late-game situations continue for the Wildcats.
Losses to Stanford and Duke get Northwestern off on the wrong foot again this fall. Road games against Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin could easily be three losses, and then there's the issue of home contests against Minnesota, Iowa and Penn State. Northwestern misses the postseason again with a 5-7 or a 4-8 record.
Ohio State
10 of 14
Best Case
This is easy. Ohio State picks the right quarterback to lead the team in 2015 or finds a way to get Braxton Miller, J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones the ball. The offense continues to light up the opposition with the speed of Heisman Trophy contender Ezekiel Elliott and other top playmakers, while Joey Bosa and the defense prove to be championship material once again.
Ohio State breezes through the first 10 games of its schedule and makes a statement with a big home win against fellow contender Michigan State in the Horseshoe. After dispatching Jim Harbaugh's Michigan team in Ann Arbor and claiming another Big Ten championship, the Buckeyes win back-to-back games in the second College Football Playoff to defend their crown. Ohio State is the wire-to-wire No. 1.
Worst Case
This one is also easy. Ohio State doesn't make the CFP and fails to repeat as the champion of the Big Ten.
A loss to an undefeated Michigan State team puts the Buckeyes out of contention for the Big Ten Championship Game, and the Spartans run the table. An additional upset loss—Virginia Tech, Penn State or hated Michigan are candidates—ends their chance of getting into the four-team playoff.
Penn State
11 of 14
Best Case
With a solid amount of experience and depth finally available, Penn State makes its breakthrough in James Franklin's second season at Happy Valley. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg has a big year next to several rising playmakers and a stronger offensive line, and the defense posts elite numbers once again.
Penn State rips through the first half of its schedule and enters Ohio State with a 6-0 record. The Nittany Lions provide a stiff challenge to the Buckeyes—possibly even upsetting them—before closing the season strong with a few more conference victories. Penn State finishes just behind the East's powerhouses but vies for a major bowl with 10 wins.
Worst Case
Penn State's offense, which ranked 121st nationally last season in yards per play, still looks a year or two away from becoming a major player in the Big Ten East. The defense fails to have that same punch from last season after losing several key pass-rushers, and the special teams unit struggles with consistency.
An early-season loss puts a dent into the optimism for State College, and the Nittany Lions find themselves outmanned in conference competition. Penn State has to scrap just to get a bowl game of any kind and posts another losing record in the Big Ten.
Purdue
12 of 14
Best Case
Purdue's Darrell Hazell inspires his experienced team—it only lost 17 lettermen from last season, according to Phil Steele's College Football Preview—to bowl contention for the first time in his tenure. The offense plays well behind an offensive line that returns all five of its starters, while the defense improves with several returning starters, including top tackle Jake Replogle.
A surprise win over Marshall or Virginia Tech early in the season could really get the ball rolling for the Boilermakers, who also have winnable games at home against Indiana State, Bowling Green, Illinois and Indiana. Add a road upset or two on that schedule, and Purdue hits that magical six-win mark needed to go bowling.
Worst Case
There's plenty of experience, but it's experience on a team that isn't used to winning. The Boilermakers only beat Western Michigan, Southern Illinois and Illinois last season and barely beat Indiana State for their lone win in 2013.
This schedule is not conducive to a breakthrough, and Purdue could honestly improve its play without having a better record. There isn't a sure victory on this slate, especially when you consider Purdue only beat the aforementioned Indiana State team by six points. Falling back to two wins would be nightmarish for Hazell's rebuilding efforts.
Rutgers
13 of 14
Best Case
Rutgers' talent at its offensive skill positions—star wide receiver Leonte Carroo and a stable of running backs with experience—offsets the losses at quarterback and along the offensive line. An athletic defense overcomes its holes on the depth chart and makes progress in 2015.
The schedule doesn't do these youthful Scarlet Knights any favors, but if they win the games they are expected to win and knock off a few conference opponents, this could be a good season. Rutgers wins eight games again, but this time, it goes for No. 9 in a decent bowl game.
Worst Case
Have we mentioned Rutgers' youth? With just 10 returning starters, Rutgers regresses from its 3-5 campaign in Big Ten play and hits a wall. The line limits the offense's explosiveness, while the defense struggles again without any pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
That brutal slate of Big Ten games that includes cross-divisional matchups against Wisconsin and Nebraska chews up this young squad. As the underdog in most of its games, Rutgers takes some huge losses and has a letdown or two against even competition. The Scarlet Knights fail to make a bowl, and Kyle Flood is planted on the hot seat.
Wisconsin
14 of 14
Best Case
It doesn't matter what kind of roster turnover Wisconsin faces—it continues to win a lot of football games, and that doesn't change under new head coach Paul Chryst. According to Wisconsin's athletic department, the Badgers have had a 1,000-yard rusher in 10 straight seasons. Behind a reloaded offensive line, Corey Clement goes above and beyond that mark. Dave Aranda's defense continues to produce.
Wisconsin opens the year with a strong performance against Alabama, and win or lose, it carries that momentum into the start of the Big Ten schedule. The Badgers defeat Iowa and Nebraska in back-to-back weeks to put themselves in the West's driver's seat, and they close strong to secure their fourth trip to the conference title game in five years.
Worst Case
Wisconsin's offense hits a bump in the road without Melvin Gordon and experienced leaders across the front five. No matter how well the veteran defense plays, the Badgers have a hard time scoring points, and that hurts them in several important games throughout the season.
A lopsided loss at the hands of Alabama gets the Chryst era off on the wrong foot, and the early one-two punch of Iowa and Nebraska hurts Wisconsin's chances of repeating as the West's champion. Wisconsin visits rival Minnesota needing a win, but the Golden Gophers end their long losing streak against the Badgers. Chryst and his new team hit the postseason with a disappointing 8-4 or 7-5 record.
Justin Ferguson is an on-call college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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