Predicting WNBA MVP, Rookie of the Year, Every Major Award Winner with 1 Month to Go

We are less than a month away from the end of the WNBA's regular season, which means a couple of things.

First: Whew, time really flies. It feels like we were prepping for the Commissioner's Cup championship game yesterday, and we're already approaching the actual postseason.

Second, the playoff and award picture is about to get nasty. To the former, the Minnesota Lynx (27-5) are the only team that has clinched a playoff spot. The Nos. 2 through 4 seeds are only separated by 1.5 games. The 5 through 8 seeds are only separated by two games. The Seattle Storm are the No. 8 seed (oof...), one game ahead of the surging Los Angeles Sparks and 1.5 games ahead of the can't-help-but-lurk Washington Mystics.

On a related note, we're running out of time to decipher a competitive field for awards nearly across the board. Of the six award predictions I made before the season, I feel good about two (2) of them.

Let's dig in, shall we?

All stats are current through games played on August 12. The stats are courtesy of WNBA.com (basic player stats/advanced team stats), PBP Stats (lineup combinations), or Second Spectrum (player or team tracking/play-type data) unless otherwise noted.

Most Valuable Player

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Preseason Prediction: Napheesa Collier (Lynx)

The Contenders: Napheesa Collier, Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

When healthy, Collier has been the league's best player on what has pretty easily been the best team. Her season averages—23.5 points on 63.8 true shooting, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.6 blocks per game—are otherworldly, especially when you consider her minute load has dropped from last season (34.7 to 32.8).

The Lynx have outscored opponents by an absurd 18.2 points per 100 possessions with Collier on the floor; for reference, the 2000 Houston Comets logged a plus-18.4 net rating, the WNBA record for a season.

Then there's Alyssa Thomas, the do-everything forward for the Mercury whose MVP case has been built on, well, doing everything.

Like Collier, no player in the league is matching her unique output: 16.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 1.6 steals per game. She's fresh off a streak where she logged three triple-doubles in a row, a first in WNBA history.

This Mercury team has been shaped in her image, and they've been in the hunt for a top-three seed pretty much all season despite injuries (and rotation tweaks) across the board. The Mercury haven't hit the same on-court highs as the Lynx with Thomas on the floor (plus-8.8), but Thomas' on-off differential (plus-11.9) is slightly higher than Collier's (plus-10.8).

Keep An Eye Out: Allisha Gray (Dream), A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Gray is having the best season of her career with the new-look Atlanta Dream, a team that wouldn't be half a game out of the No. 2 seed without her two-way excellence.

She's posting career highs in points (18.9), rebounds (5.4), assists (3.8) and overall efficiency (60.7 true shooting). Absorbing more on-ball responsibility on the second-highest minute load in the league (35.3) while increasing her efficiency is kinda nuts. Similar to the candidates above, the Dream have been a much better team with Gray on the floor (plus-9.3) than off of it (-3.8; plus-13.1 differential).

As the Aces have recently surged up the standings—now up to the fifth seed, only 1.5 games behind the Mercury—so has Wilson's MVP case. Her averages—22.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 blocks—are bonkers, and she's doing so in a little over 30 minutes per game.

If your primary MVP criteria is "If you take Player X off this team, what does it look like?" Wilson arguably has the strongest case of the group. The Aces have performed like the Thomas-led Mercury with Wilson on the floor (plus-8.8), but they've practically died when she's sat (minus-21.3).

The on-court number generally matters more to me than the on-off differential—you toe a thin line of unfairly punishing players with good bench support and pumping up players without it, and rotation patterns play a large role in all of this—but it's hard not to at least note Wilson's Nikola Jokic-level split.

The team truly goes as she goes.

Quick Shout: Sabrina Ionescu

Ionescu has established herself as the Liberty MVP representative, with all due respect to the currently injured Breanna Stewart and the formerly injured Jonquel Jones. Ionescu is also enjoying a great all-around season—19.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.4 steals—with continued strides inside the arc and on the defensive end. Her efficiency (54.5 true shooting, slightly above league average) and on-off numbers lag a bit behind the others listed; she feels like a near-lock for an All-WNBA first-team selection, but I'm not sure she'll actually garner first-place MVP votes.

Prediction: Napheesa Collier

First and foremost, solely within the context of this award race, Collier needs to return to the court as soon as possible. The Lynx have one game this week(end)—hosting the Liberty again on Saturday before facing them in New York again next Tuesday—giving her ankle more time to heal. If she's back Tuesday, running the table would have her at 37 games played out of a possible 44. Her production, her team's dominance with her on the floor, and the team's record in light of that should be enough for her to hold on.

If she's out for longer than that—an understandable scenario considering how tricky ankle injuries can be, and I'm sure Collier would tell you herself that being healthy for a title run is more important than pushing for MVP—the door would open even more for Thomas, Gray and Wilson.

Defensive Player of the Year

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Preseason Prediction: A'ja Wilson (Aces)

The Contenders: Alanna Smith (Lynx), Alyssa Thomas (Mercury), Gabby Williams (Storm)

Calling Smith the unsung hero of the Lynx may be technically accurate, but it doesn't feel right. She should be a hero, period, for the work she does defensively. She's once again among the league leaders in blocks (2.0, 2nd) while also racking up steals (1.4) and deflections.

The Lynx have defended at an elite level when teams have tried to attack Smith in pick-and-roll (0.78 PPP), isolation (0.72) or in post-up situations (0.86). There isn't a coverage or rotation she isn't comfortable executing, and her willingness to take on center assignments—and get beat up in the process—helps unlock Collier's otherworldly instincts off the ball.

Thomas is once again the foundational piece of an elite defense. Her blend of strength, speed, aggression and IQ continues to pop in Phoenix's pressure-heavy system. Among 37 players to defend at least 200 pick-and-rolls, Thomas ranks first in points per possession allowed on those trips (0.74). Teams haven't tried her much in isolation, but they've been stonewalled when they have (32 reps, 0.53 PPP).

Williams has been the league's best wing defender, and I fear that may get lost in the shuffle in light of...all of the things happening in Seattle. Still, Williams has been a pest on the ball—only Collier (0.74) and Ezi Magbegor (0.78) have allowed a lower per-possession number on drives than Williams (0.8 PPP), for example—and deadly off it. Her 2.5 steals per game lead qualified players by a wide margin.

Keep An Eye Out: Napheesa Collier (Lynx), A'ja Wilson

Collier was, rightfully, last year's Defensive Player of the Year and is putting together another strong campaign. She's narrowly the only player in the league who ranks in the top five in steals (1.8) and blocks (1.6), and there isn't a play-type—pick-and-roll (0.84), isolation (0.86), post-ups (0.83), the aforementioned drives (0.74)—that she doesn't grade highly in.

When I mentioned the "narrowly top-five in steals and blocks" piece for Collier, that was a loose reference to Wilson, who "only" ranks sixth in steals (1.6) while leading the league in blocks (2.1). The Aces tweaked things heading into the season (less help present, keeping things two-on-two), and have since tweaked roles as the season has gone on.

Both things have put immense strain on Wilson to be darn-near perfect for the defense to function, much less work at a high level. It's led to a lot of the steal and block numbers Wilson has racked up, but also a lot of fruitful attempts for opponents. That puts Wilson in a pretty odd loop: The Aces have been nearly nine points better defensively with Wilson on the floor, but the defense with Wilson on the floor would only rank ninth leaguewide.

Prediction: Alanna Smith

Heading into Wednesday's slate, the Lynx not only lead the league in defensive rating (95.5), but they hold a three-point lead over the second-ranked Mercury (98.8). Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve recently gave Smith her love—and a little bit of a DPOY nudge—in a postgame presser; I'm hoping that resonates with the folks with ballots and leads them to take a deeper look into Smith's case.

As much as this shouldn't matter—the film tells the story pretty loudly—Smith just doesn't have the same name recognition as her MVP-level teammate in Collier, or the MVP-caliber Thomas.

Rookie of the Year

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Preseason Prediction: Paige Bueckers (Wings)

The Contenders: Paige Bueckers, Sonia Citron (Mystics)

Bueckers continues to shine amid a rocky context in Dallas. She leads all rookies in points (18.4), assists (5.4) and steals (1.8, 3rd leaguewide). In fact, she's the only (qualified) player in the league who ranks in the top 10 in points, assists and steals. That she's also logging above-average efficiency (54.8 true shooting) despite the coverages she sees—and her shot profile, frankly—is wild.

Citron hasn't filled the box score to that degree, but she's been tasked with doing a little bit of everything. Her averages—14.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 steals—aren't anything to sneeze at. She's been wildly efficient (60.4 true shooting), and that's with her making more on-ball decisions than just about anyone would've expected heading into the season.

Her defense hasn't quite been All-Defense level overall, but she's shown enough for me to be confident in All-Defense selections being in her (near) future.

Keep An Eye Out: Kiki Iriafen (Mystics)

Earlier this season, you could've made an earnest case for Iriafen as the Rookie of the Year favorite. She's since cooled from that pace, but she's still put together one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory. She's averaging 12.5 points and 8.3 rebounds, making her one of eight players—most being current or former All-Stars—to average at least 12 and eight this season. Her motor and penchant for physicality, especially on her drives and post-ups, have popped all year.

Prediction: Paige Bueckers

It's hard to bet against Bueckers at this point—the blend of on-ball responsibility and the efficiency within that context is a big selling point. I will say the door isn't completely closed. She's missed time off and on this year, and there's still a chance for the Mystics to make the postseason (1.5 games out of 8th), even if I'd argue that wouldn't be the best course of action in Washington.

Sixth Woman of the Year

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Preseason Prediction: Marine Johannes (Liberty)

The Contenders: Naz Hillmon (Dream)

This may be the award with the clearest winner.

Hillmon has been outstanding for the Dream this year. Filtering for just her reserve games—something I like to do when thinking through this award, and something I'd encourage actual ballot-holders to do—Hillmon is averaging 8.0 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.0 assists. Among players to log at least 20 reserve games, those rank first, second and sixth, respectively. The Dream have an average point differential of 5.7 in those reserve games, second only to the Lynx's Jessica Shepard (plus-5.8).

If part of your criteria features a player's ability to step into a starting role when needed, Hillmon checks that box, too. The Dream are 4-0 in her starts, including a recent victory over the Phoenix Mercury, with Hillmon averaging 13.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and nearly a block per contest.

It's worth keeping an eye on the bench-versus-start split. Brittney Griner made her return in the Mercury matchup but came off the bench. I'd be somewhat surprised if Griner didn't slide back into the low-minute starter role with Hillmon going back to the bench, but it's worth noting that there's a chance that head coach Karl Smesko sticks with the current lineup as we inch closer to the playoffs.

The data would support that decision, at least: the Dream have a plus-20.2 net rating (!) with Hillmon and Bri Jones on the floor together, while that drops to minus-2.1 with Jones and Griner together.

Keep An Eye Out: Natisha Hiedeman (Lynx), DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Hiedeman is the "purest" candidate that we have in the immediate contender group, in that she hasn't started a single game this season. Within that, she's averaging 7.8 points while enjoying her most successful inside-the-arc season (58.4%). Her drives have popped for most of the year, and she has an underrated sense for filling lanes and cutting when operating off the ball.

Bonner serves as a wild card since she's been lighting the world on fire since joining the Mercury. Across 12 games (11 reserve, 1 start), Bonner's averaging 11.9 points (52/36/86 splits, 59.6 true shooting) and 4.7 rebounds while being tasked with defending multiple positions.

If she doesn't miss a game, and assuming she continues coming off the bench, Bonner could get up to 30 reserve games (24 with the Mercury) with production that could make for an interesting conversation, at least. It would be a short conversation for me in favor of Hillmon, but that's just me.

Prediction: Naz Hillmon

The production is there. The team success is there. The impact on team success is there. Start prepping the speech.

Most Improved Player

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Preseason Prediction: Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun)

The Contenders: Veronica Burton (Valkyries), Naz Hillmon (Dream)

Across her stints in Dallas (two seasons) and Connecticut (last season), Burton has shown the outline of a productive point guard. She's always been able, and willing, to defend at a high level. She's been a smart on-ball decision maker with the ability to get downhill. The jumper (and crowded backcourts) prevented her from truly breaking out.

Burton was handed the keys this season and has largely produced. She's logging career highs in virtually everything: points (10.6), rebounds (4.3), assists (5.2), steals (1.0) and overall efficiency (54.7 True Shooting). She's not-so-quietly having the best three-point shooting season of her career, draining 36.4% of her 3.8 attempts. It's not hard to make the Burton case.

Hillmon double-dipping with Sixth Woman of the Year and Most Improved Player would be one heck of a story, and I honestly wouldn't rule it out. She's long been a willing screener, a versatile defender, and an active participant on the glass. This year, her offensive utility has leveled up in addition to those foundational skills.

She's logging career highs in points (8.7), rebounds (5.8), and assists (2.3). As many have noted—and I'd highly recommend this piece on the subject—Hillmon is taking (3.7 attempts) and making more threes (1.2, 33%) than she ever has. What's gone under the radar has been her inside-the-arc work (career best 68.7% on 2s) and her usage as a passer. She helps maintain the Dream's spacing and flow—I've really enjoyed how quickly she's flowed into second-side handoffs, as well as her willingness to hit cutters—and is an adept-enough finisher to punish smaller players on the block when necessary.

Keep An Eye Out: Allisha Gray (Dream), Azura Stevens (Sparks)

Gray going from All-Star to legitimate star—if not a superstar—is generally one of the hardest leaps to make in basketball. This kind of leap coming in Year 9 makes it even more rare; the scary thing is this feels pretty sustainable.

Within the new system, with new personnel and ultimately more on-ball trust, Gray has thrived. As mentioned in the MVP slide, which says enough about her case for this award, she's logging career highs in points (18.9), rebounds (5.4), assists (3.8) and overall efficiency (60.7 True Shooting). She's taking more threes than ever (6.1 attempts) while draining them at a 40% clip. Her willingness and effectiveness in doing so, particularly off the bounce, has accentuated her already-strong driving game.

Stevens is fully, finally, healthy and is thriving with the Los Angeles Sparks. She's always intrigued as a big that can legitimately shoot, drive, and make passes on the move. That she's been able to put it together to this degree—career highs in points (14.6), rebounds (8.1), assists (2.0), and steals (1.3)—has been a joy to watch. Because of her versatility, you never really know what to expect from Stevens. Head coach Lynne Roberts has done a great job of both empowering Stevens, and leveraging her unique skill set by moving her around the floor.

Prediction: Veronica Burton

Burton crushing it in her first go as a full-time starter, for an expansion team that may very well make the playoffs, feels like a hard case to pass on. Competition is really stiff, though. This and Defensive Player of the Year are probably the two awards I have the least amount of confidence in, prediction-wise.

Coach of the Year

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Preseason Prediction: Tyler Marsh (Sky)

The Contenders: Natalie Nakase (Valkyries), Karl Smesko (Dream), Nate Tibbetts (Mercury)

Expansion teams just aren't supposed to be good. You don't get your pick of the litter when it comes to the expansion draft; you're at the mercy of players who haven't been protected by their teams. You're not atop the list of destinations for most unrestricted free agents; the top tier wants to win and do so immediately. You don't waltz into the league with the top pick of that year's draft; you go just outside of the lottery and do your best.

Within that context, what Natalie Nakase and staff have done with the Golden State Valkyries is nothing short of impressive. They sit seventh in the standings—1.5 games out of fifth, 1.5 games ahead of the ninth-seeded Sparks—while boasting a top-three defense in the league.

They had an All-Star this year in Kayla Thornton; even with her being lost for the year shortly after All-Star festivities, the Valkyries have managed to go 6-3 since the All-Star break off the strength of their defense.

The Smesko-led Dream have been a joy to watch this year, especially on the offensive end. Their spacing tweaks and overall three-point willingness has been discussed in this space before, but I'd like to hammer home a broader point about their offensive transformation. The Dream currently have the second best offensive rating in the league (107.0); this would be the first time they've finished better than 6th in offensive rating since 2014, and the first time they've had an offensive rating over 100 since 2018. Heck, they had the worst offensive rating in the league (96.6) last season.

The Tibbetts-led Mercury have been one of the best teams in the league, despite the injury turmoil they've had to deal with. While it would be easy to press the "He Has Alyssa Thomas" button, it's worth noting that he's empowered her in a different way. Her touches per game (86.2) are similar to last season's mark (85.6), but the distribution is wildly different; of note, Thomas is initiating over 16 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, way up from last season (10.6). That volume, and the many inverted variations at her and the team's disposal, have often put defenses in headlocks.

To the defense, the Mercury rank second at Thomas' lead. Before you even get to the goodness of Thomas' hedge-or-switch game at the point of screens, you have to deal with a whole lot of ball pressure. Only the Mystics have a higher average pick-up point (49.6 feet) than the Mercury (48.2), and it's worth noting that this is a pretty drastic shift in approach from last season (41.1, 10th).

Keep An Eye Out: Sydney Johnson (Mystics)

If you would've told anyone outside of Washington before the season that the Mystics would have three All-Stars and compete for a playoff spot, the response would've landed somewhere between "turn off 2K" and the "sure, grandma, let's get you to bed" meme.

Instead, the Mystics have pulled that off while playing a pretty fun brand on basketball. They're going to pressure the heck out of you defensively, maintain that pressure with active bigs, run like heck in transition (and sprinkle in an ungodly amount of drag screens), and at least make you think in the half-court with their tempo, cutting, and overall spacing principles. It's such a well-coached group, and I think the Coach of the Year chatter for Johnson would be a lot louder if there weren't so many strong cases this year. I'd argue that it still should be louder.

Prediction: Natalie Nakase

With that said, it's really, really hard to beat a playoffs-in-year-one-as-an-expansion-team case. Nakase has done a tremendous job of empowering her roster—from vets like Thornton to young players like Burton looking to solidify themselves in the league—and establishing a baseline of defensive excellence.