Predicting WNBA MVP, Rookie of the Year, Every Major Award Winner Ahead of 2025 Season

Folks, it's almost time for the WNBA regular season.

In the lead-up, I've been tasked with predicting who will win each of the major awards this season. The challenge with that, aside from not being able to see the future, is balancing what is likely to reasonably happen with what you think should reasonably happen.

I don't have an official awards ballot—at least not yet; holla at me, league office!—so leaning on the former led me down a research rabbit hole into past trends to hopefully find some guardrails. It's why you'll see a history note on a few of these slides.

For each award, here are early front-runners, some dark-horse candidates and ultimately who I think the voters will select.

Let's dig in, shall we?

Most Valuable Player

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The Contenders: A'ja Wilson (Aces), Napheesa Collier (Lynx), Caitlin Clark (Fever)

It isn't difficult to make the Wilson case: She's the best player in the world, coming off arguably the greatest regular season in league history. Assuming good health, for herself and her backcourt, she should provide her usual brand of interior dominance on both ends and continue to expand her range and usage.

Collier's two-way versatility was loud last season, carving up defenses in a multitude of ways while also earning the league's Defensive Player of the Year award. If her Unrivaled run was any indication, Collier's in for a huge year.

It didn't take long for Clark to establish herself as one of the most dynamic players in the league. Once the Fever got through a brutal opening schedule, they were the league's best offense, spearheaded by Clark's rare blend of deep pull-up shooting and preternatural playmaking. The Fever should be (much) better this season, potentially setting up a Year 2 MVP campaign for Clark.

Keep An Eye Out: Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty), Alyssa Thomas (Mercury), Nneka Ogwumike (Storm)

The Liberty will surely have a rep, and spacing shifts (more 5-out) to their offense should accentuate Ionescu's talents in a big way. The combination of wider driving and passing lanes, in addition to Ionescu being able to attack more in off-ball actions with the acquisition of Natasha Cloud should bode well.

Thomas is one of the league's most unique players: an offense unto herself because of her playmaking and screening, and one of the best defenders this league has seen. If the Mercury earn a top-four seed this season, Thomas will be the primary reason.

Ogwumike remains a steady, impactful two-way force. With the departure of Jewell Loyd, the good team plus larger scoring burden plus All-Defense campaign roadmap for Ogwumike is there.

Prediction: Napheesa Collier

Expect another dominant two-way season for Collier that ends with the Lynx finishing in the top three. Her responsibility and impact on both ends is where she may have a slight edge over Clark.

Wilson has a bit of history working against her; Cynthia Cooper is the only player in WNBA history to win back-to-back MVPs, and that happened in the first two seasons of the league (1997, 1998). Wilson's certainly good enough to pull off the feat, but the bar and competition for a repeat is sky-high.

Defensive Player of the Year

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The Contenders: Napheesa Collier (Lynx), A'ja Wilson (Aces), Ezi Magbegor (Storm)

Collier won the award last season thanks to, well, pretty much everything. Her switchability, on-ball and weak-side rim protection, and activity as a help defender popped all year. She is the fulcrum of what should remain an elite Lynx defense.

Wilson is a mainstay in this conversation, and rightfully so. She's an awesome rim protector who's also mobile enough to play in more aggressive coverages. With a win, she'd join Sheryl Swoopes, Sylvia Fowles and Tamika Catchings as the only players to win three or more DPOYs.

I could (once again) make a case for Ogwumike as Seattle's rep, but Magbegor's case may ring a little louder for people. She rivals Wilson as the game's best rim protector while being a fluid perimeter mover in her own right. I've already floated out a "Seattle may have the best defense in the league" take; if that comes true, expect Magbegor to be at the forefront of it.

Keep An Eye Out: Alyssa Thomas (Mercury), Angel Reese (Sky), Natasha Cloud (Liberty)

There may not be a more physical defender in the league than Thomas, but that's only a small portion of what she brings. She's legitimately terrifying as a hedge defender, can switch and hold up at a high level, and turns errant passes into transition opportunities. Phoenix has quality defenders on the roster, but Thomas anchoring this defense at an elite level (after doing so for years in Connecticut) may lead to some long overdue love.

Reese deserved serious consideration for an All-Defense selection last season, thanks to her activity and mobility on the perimeter and her obvious value as a possession-ender on the glass. She's looked even more comfortable on the perimeter in 2025, both in preseason action and during an Unrivaled stint that ended with her winning Defensive Player of the Year. The Sky should be better defensively due to health, internal improvement, and coaching—but Reese will be the ceiling-raiser of this group.

There's always a perimeter player that wedges themselves into a big-oriented award. Last year, it was DiJonai Carrington; this year, I imagine it's Natasha Cloud. There's a combination of Cloud's excellence—she's a hound at the point-of-attack, and doesn't mind defending bigger players—and New Face, New Place that may give her the nod over Breanna Stewart or Jonquel Jones as the Liberty rep.

Prediction: A'ja Wilson

Wilson racked up an ungodly amount of stocks (steals plus blocks) last season while protecting the rim at a high level. It's a testament to how good she was and is, but also a sign of how many fires she had to put out. I don't think she'll have the same burden as last season, on either end, which should allow her defense to pop in a more impactful way.

Rookie of the Year

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The Contenders: Paige Bueckers (Wings), the Mystics (Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen)

Bueckers is one of the most complete guard prospects to enter the league. She's a strong playmaker, (pull-up) shooter and defender. That versatility has allowed her to shapeshift into whatever her team asks. Watching her partnership with Arike Ogunbowale unfold will be exciting.

The Mystics have multiple rookies, but first-round picks Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen have the best odds at putting together a Rookie of the Year case.

Citron will take on tough defensive assignments alongside Brittney Sykes while filling gaps offensively in Washington's high-pace, high-movement system. Her cutting and overall spatial awareness has already popped in preseason play.

Iriafen intrigues as a runner first and foremost; there won't be many bigs who can keep up with her when the Mystics grab a board or force a turnover. She jets out of picks—or slips them entirely—and has the touch to take advantage of those openings at the rim.

Keep An Eye Out: Dominique Malonga (Storm), the Sun (Aneesah Morrow, Saniya Rivers)

There is a "What does Seattle's rotation look like" question burning in my brain, which is the primary reason Malonga is in this section. There's a world where she's fourth in the frontcourt pecking order behind Ogwumike, Magbegor and Li Yueru—and that's before getting into any Alysha Clark-at-the-4 minutes. If Malonga plays her way into consistent minutes, her effectiveness as a roll threat and rim protector—on a good team—could make for a strong Rookie of the Year push.

Similar to the Washington, there are minutes and usage available for the youngins in Connecticut. Morrow was a dominant interior force in college, but there may be more ball/perimeter skills to unlock. Rivers is a genuinely wild (complimentary) athlete that could prove to be a plus-defender from day one. Her downhill juice and playmaking chops intrigue me, especially within the context of what the Sun want to establish offensively.

Prediction: Paige Bueckers

It may be boring to go with the top pick winning the award, but Bueckers should be pretty darn good on both ends of the floor. It'll be hard to beat her box score + efficiency + usage combination—especially if the Wings also find themselves in the playoff picture.

Sixth Woman of the Year

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Quick History: Only twice in the award's history (Candice Wiggins in 2008, Riquna Williams in 2013) has the winner been on a non-playoff team.

In fact, you'd have to go back to Allie Quigley's 2014 campaign—11 years ago!—to find a Sixth Player of the Year winner on a team that didn't win at least 60 percent of their games. That Sky team (15-19) snuck into the playoffs...and eventually made the Finals!

In short, you generally have to be a productive reserve on a very good team to be a serious threat to win it. History tells us that this year's winner will come from a team that goes 26-18 or better.

The Contenders: Marine Johannes (Liberty), Jessica Shepard (Lynx), Sophie Cunningham (Fever)

If Johannes isn't the best reserve in the league, she's certainly the most entertaining. You never know what Johannes is going to do when she has the ball; heck, I don't think she does, either. But her blend of playmaking and pull-up shooting isn't just impressive, it'll be needed.

Full disclosure: Shepard is one of my favorite role players in the league. I'm a sucker for a big that can screen their tail off while also adding juice as a playmaking hub. Shepard provides that value in spades, and she'll be more heavily relied upon in Minnesota's second unit with Dorka Juhasz sitting out this season.

I'm making the assumption that Cunningham is a consistent reserve for the Fever, though new head coach Stephanie White has tinkered with lineups during preseason play. If Cunningham does come off the bench, her three-point shooting and willingness to defend up and down the positional spectrum provides a roadmap to this award.

Keep An Eye Out: The Storm, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (Dream), Tiffany Mitchell (Aces)

Again, I'm not sure what the rotation looks like for the Storm. If they decide to go roll with Skylar Diggins, Erica Wheeler, Alysha Clark, Ogwumike and Magbegor up front, Gabby Williams becomes an easy contender for the award, if not the favorite because of her defensive versatility, playmaking, and driving ability.

If it's Williams instead of Clark in the starting lineup, Clark's case could look a lot like Cunningham's—three-point shooting plus defensive versatility—with the added bonus of random post seals in transition. You can copy and paste the Malonga/Rookie of the Year thoughts here. Heck, if Yueru grows as a finisher and cleans the glass at a high level, she could put together a reasonable "per-minute-monster" case.

Walker-Kimbrough may start in the short-term with Jordin Canada on the mend. I expect her to ultimately be a reserve, where her defense and underrated scoring aggression could be of great importance to the Dream.

It wouldn't feel right leaving off an Aces option considering they've won [checks notes] five of the last six awards! Mitchell feels like the most likely option; her defense will (and judging by the preseason, has) earn her the initial trust of Hammon, and her drives could help maintain it. It's not hard to envision Hammon enjoying a Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, Mitchell, Jackie Young, and Wilson group closing games.

Prediction: Marine Johannes

"Top scoring reserve on a really good team" has long been a template for this award, on the WNBA and especially, to my chagrin, the NBA side. Johannes will put points on the board in bunches, dazzle crowds with her passing, and do so on what should be, at minimum during the regular season, the best team in the league. Any concerns about her defense should be mitigated by the personnel the Liberty can surround her with.

Most Improved Player

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Quick History: If you've never checked out the history of this award, I'd highly recommend it; it is all over the place. You have your classic where-did-they-come-from cases and solid-starter-to-All-Star progressions. Skylar Diggins won the award in her second season—one of six players to do so—thanks to a legit All-WNBA leap. Leilani Mitchell not only won the award twice, but won it nine years apart (2010, 2019).

Every award has an inherent "eye of the beholder" feel in terms of what voters value; MIP may just be the most liberal version we have in the league.

The Contenders: Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun), Rae Burrell (Sparks), Natasha Mack (Mercury)

Nelson-Ododa screams "modern big": not quite a high-level post threat (though she's looked more comfortable over the past two seasons), but someone that can threaten defenses with their screening and rolling, extend defenses with their ability to playmake or flow into handoffs, and execute multiple coverages defensively. The preseason returns, as much as you care about them, have been positive with her scaling up in usage.

Burrell had fun flashes as a transition threat and defender last season. Those flashes were more consistent during Unrivaled play. With a likely starting role this year, playing off of a pair of All-Stars in Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby, Burrell is in position for a leap.

Similar to Nelson-Ododa, Mack could step into a consistent starting role this season and see a bump in box score production. Those increases will be loudest in the non-glamour areas—(offensive) rebounding, steals, and blocks.

She's already one of the most underrated defenders in the league, able to stand up bulkier frontcourt players in the post, execute aggressive ball screen coverages, switch in a pinch, and clean up mistakes with timely blocks. I think people will tune into Mercury games to get a look at their new Big Three, and come away impressed by the work Mack does on that end.

Keep An Eye Out: The Valkyries, (fringe) All-Stars

The nature of an expansion team is, funny enough, an expansion of roles for many of the players selected. A Year 2 explosion for Julie Vanloo or Kate Martin wouldn't shock me, nor would a Year 3 jump from Laeticia Amihere or Year 4 jump from Veronica Burton.

There was legitimate buzz—and understandable pushback—around Sabrina Ionescu's case last season, especially off the back of Satou Sabally winning the year before. It's fair to expect at least one All-Star caliber player to level up this season.

The Atlanta duo of Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray come to mind, especially if they flourish in new head coach Karl Smesko's spaced-out system. Both Kelsey Plum and Marina Mabrey will have even more on-ball usage for the Sparks and Sun respectively; there's room for a box score bump in a similar way to Hamby's last season.

Again, the younger options will likely take priority in this year's race, but just keep your eyes peeled.

Prediction: Olivia Nelson-Ododa

To this point, Nelson-Ododa has logged 21 career regular-season games where she's played at least 20 minutes. She should, barring injury, average more than that minute load. Her most recent preseason game (15 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal, 2 blocks) should provide a window into what this season could look like: dive hard, drive hard, get to the line, clean the glass, flow side to side offensively, and fly around on the defensive end.

Coach of the Year

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Quick History: There have been six coaches (Van Chancellor, Dan Hughes, Bill Laimbeer, Mike Thibault, Cheryl Reeve, Curt Miller) to win the award more than once. However, all but Chancellor (1997-99 with the Houston Comets) had at least a four-season gap before winning their next one.

The Contenders: Tyler Marsh (Sky), Stephanie White (Fever), Karl Smesko (Dream)

New faces, new places for all three of these candidates. Those types of stories tend to have a leg up on more established, we-know-you're-great candidates.

For Marsh, he'll be looking to lead the Sky back to the postseason after injuries derailed their push late last season. The Sky look more organized offensively, more active defensively, and the roster has been stocked with veterans to accentuate the skills of Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso.

For White, the job is to take the Fever from "dangerous-but-flawed upstart team" to legitimate contender. The pace and ball movement that captured eyes from all over last season remains; the uptick in switching and full-court pressure defensively feels like a new and welcome shift from last season.

For Smesko, evolving a Dream offense that hasn't ranked in the top half of the league since 2014 (!) is of great importance. It's why the spacing tweaks—more 5-out concepts, more weak-side movement opposite of two-player actions—have stood out in preseason play. Getting the Howard/Gray/Bri Jones/Brittney Griner quartet to play well together could lead to a huge bump in wins.

Keep An Eye Out: Noelle Quinn (Storm), Lynne Roberts (Sparks)

There are fair concerns about Seattle's overall shooting talent, and what that could mean for their ceiling. If they're able to overcome that—primarily with their defense, but I've always appreciated how Quinn has been willing to flip and lower their spacing principles to create advantages offensively—I could see a push for Quinn to be recognized.

Another New Face, New Place case (say that one five times fast), Roberts will also look to spread things out offensively and optimize L.A.'s shot profile. I'm curious to see how much, and in how many ways, Plum's usage expands. If things gel, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Sparks lurking in or around the top six in the standings.

We See You: The obvious contenders (Liberty, Lynx, Aces)

On one hand, the trio of Sandy Brondello, Cheryl Reeve, and Becky Hammon are tremendous coaches. Eight WNBA championships have been won between the three of them.

On the other, everyone knows they—and their teams, if healthy—are tremendous, so they lose out on the "where did this leap come from" bump that other candidates may get.

Going back to the note about multi-time winners, history doesn't give Reeve or Hammon much of a shot. That would leave Brondello, who is [checks notes] coming off a championship.

Remember, the Aces followed up their 2022 championship run (where Hammon won Coach of the Year) with a historically dominant 2023 regular season and Hammon finished a distant fourth in voting. I'm honestly not sure what Brondello could reasonably do.

Prediction: Tyler Marsh

It feels like Marsh and White are the early front-runners for this one, honestly. In addition to the organization and empowerment that Marsh provides—seriously, I'm really excited about what the defense, and the defense-to-transition-offense sequences will look like—there's also a world where the Fever's run to end last season might hinder White's case, as unfair as that is.

We did get a 25-game, multi-month sample of the Fever being the best offense in basketball and a top-six team in terms of net rating. The Sky didn't reach those highs last season, and surely didn't close the season as strongly as the Fever did. That, in theory, adds to the degree of difficulty (and ultimately, the "wow" factor) for Chicago.

I personally don't love that logic, at least not as the starting or primary criteria—the season at hand should be the season that's evaluated—but I wouldn't be shocked if voters factor that in as part of their calculus.