Odds Each SEC Coach Will Still Be at Same School 4 Years from Now
Steve Spurrier's annual appearances at SEC media days have become some of the most entertaining times of the entire college football offseason.
On Tuesday, the 70-year-old South Carolina head coach took the podium in Hoover, Alabama, and fielded questions on many subjects, from his new assistant coaches to his golf game.
One of the Head Ball Coach's best quotes of the morning came when he made a comment to the media about how longtime oddsmaker Danny Sheridan should set odds on each SEC coach's chances of staying at the same school for the next four years.
Spurrier was making a quip about the many questions surrounding his future as South Carolina's head coach and how much longer he'll be on the sidelines.
There's no word yet if Sheridan or any other betting expert will take Spurrier's challenge, but here's a crack at those odds for each of the 14 head coaches in the SEC based on their current contracts, program personnel and realistic chances at jumping to another job in college football or the NFL.
While most of the conference's coaches have great job security and lengthy contracts at the moment, consider only six of them were in the same spot four years ago for 2011's media days. Things can change quickly in the coaching world.
Who do you think has the best and worst odds at being back in Hoover for media days four years from now? Sound off in the comments below.
Alabama: Nick Saban
1 of 14
Odds: 2-1
Nick Saban is as close to untouchable as a head coach can get in terms of job security. Alabama might have fallen short of its ultimate goal the last two seasons, but Saban has three national championships, three SEC championships and a statue at Alabama. He's already tested the waters in the NFL and decided to return to greatness in college football.
While Alabama might not have the same dominance it once had over the conference, the Crimson Tide are in great shape to compete for titles year in and year out under Saban. His staff continues to seal No. 1 overall recruiting classes and pump out pro prospects. The shift in offensive philosophy with Lane Kiffin should only help Alabama's staying power in an increasingly fast-paced SEC.
It seems the only real threat to Saban's tenure at Alabama is Saban himself. He turns 64 on Halloween this year and could be headed toward retirement in the next few years. Still, he has a huge contract that runs through the 2022 season, meaning he could join Spurrier by coaching in his 70s.
Arkansas: Bret Bielema
2 of 14
Odds: 9-1
Bret Bielema might have the most job security of any coach with a losing record at his current school. The Razorbacks are 10-15 overall and 2-14 in the SEC since his arrival, yet things are looking brighter in Fayetteville as Bielema's patented power styles start to take full shape.
Bielema reportedly turned down a move back to the Big Ten at Nebraska late last year, per NFL.com's Gil Brandt (h/t College Football Talk), and Arkansas extended his contract through the 2020 season in February. According to the details of his new contract, Bielema would be owed $15.4 million if he's fired before 2018 and a minimum of $7.9 million before the end of the deal.
If the Razorbacks can make their big breakthrough and compete in the tough SEC West over the next several seasons, Bielema has built a great spot for himself in Fayetteville. The leadership at Arkansas has shown it is willing to be patient with the former Wisconsin head coach.
Auburn: Gus Malzahn
3 of 14
Odds: 7-1
Auburn hasn't had much stability in the coaching ranks over the last couple of decades, but Gus Malzahn has a chance to settle in the Plains for the long haul.
His dramatic turnaround of the program in the 2013 season, his first as the Tigers' head coach, earned him a contract extension through 2019. While the Tigers took a step back in 2014 with an 8-5 record, they are set up to be a contender in the conference for the next several years with Malzahn's offensive scheme, Will Muschamp's place at defensive coordinator and overall recruiting success.
At Auburn, a sudden downturn in success could send Malzahn out the door—remember, the Tigers fired Gene Chizik two seasons after winning the national title.
Perhaps the biggest threat to Malzahn's stay is the NFL, where he could join Chip Kelly in installing his prolific offense at the next level. Malzahn has quickly batted down NFL rumors in the past, including to AL.com's Brandon Marcello, but some more trophies could create bigger buzz from a rich franchise down the road.
Florida: Jim McElwain
4 of 14
Odds: 10-1
It's hard to peg down the odds for several of these coaches, but Jim McElwain is probably the toughest call as the conference's lone first-year coach in 2015.
McElwain has a six-year contract with the Florida Gators, who fell on hard times in the last few seasons under Will Muschamp. His appointment from mid-major Colorado State was somewhat surprising, considering the financial resources of a school like Florida.
Turning around a rough offensive situation will be paramount to McElwain's rebuild in Gainesville. If he can get the offense clicking again with a consistently solid defense, the Gators should be a contender in the East again in no time. That project should be completed, though, by the time we hit media days in 2019.
Georgia: Mark Richt
5 of 14
Odds: 8-1
Mark Richt, like another coach on this list, is constantly the subject of hot-seat talk. The Bulldogs haven't won a national title since 1980, and they haven't claimed an SEC crown since Richt won two inside his first five seasons in Athens.
Richt's current contract lasts through the 2019 season, which would see him make Spurrier's cutline if he sees it out. His staff continues to get some of the best talent in recruiting, and he has one of the best young defensive coordinators in the country on his staff in Jeremy Pruitt. The ingredients are there for success, especially in the SEC's weaker division.
But if Georgia doesn't win the conference or make it to the College Football Playoff within the next four seasons, Richt could be on his way out after a long tenure as the Bulldogs' head coach. Another year or two of falling short of the SEC East crown may send him to the exit door even sooner.
Kentucky: Mark Stoops
6 of 14
Odds: 15-1
Like Bielema, Mark Stoops is eyeing a breakthrough season at Kentucky. The Wildcats went from 2-10 in Stoops' first season to 5-7 last year, so a bowl berth could be on the cards this season for Kentucky.
Stoops, who is also signed through the 2019 season, has made Kentucky a bigger name in the recruiting world, and his program currently has the No. 16 class for the current cycle, per 247Sports. With a growing amount of talent coming into Lexington, Kentucky has the chance to make some noise in the SEC East over the new few years.
Stoops is in an interesting spot with Kentucky. A couple of additional losing seasons could spell the end of his time in the win-now SEC, especially with the recruits the Wildcats are pulling into campus. But a big year or two would make him a prime candidate for a head coaching move to a more established Power Five program. This upcoming fall will have a major impact on what's to come for Stoops and Kentucky.
LSU: Les Miles
7 of 14
Odds: 9-1
Like Richt, Les Miles is in a precarious spot heading into the near future. LSU dropped to 8-5 last season, three years removed from winning the SEC title and playing for the national championship.
The Tigers lost plenty of talent to the NFL and struggled to move the ball effectively on offense in several important games. Now veteran defensive coordinator John Chavis is off to new SEC West rival Texas A&M, and the future of the offense is still cloudy.
Miles is under contract through—you guessed it—2019, and his alma mater of Michigan has already hired its big-name coach of the future. LSU has the talent and potential to compete for titles again, but the clock is definitely ticking on one of the longest-tenured coaches in the SEC.
Mississippi State: Dan Mullen
8 of 14
Odds: 10-1
After five seasons of .500 or worse play in the SEC, Dan Mullen gave Mississippi State its best year in 2014. The Bulldogs were ranked No. 1 in the country at one point and finished the season with 10 wins and a New Year's Six bowl appearance.
Even with three losses in the final four games of 2014, Mullen received a contract extension through the 2018 season. That means Mullen would have to sign another deal with Mississippi State before he can make it to the 2019 SEC media days. Mullen seems committed to the long-term future of the program even after the "rumblings" of his being on the hot seat heading into the last season, according to ESPN's Chris Low.
Someone has to finish in last place in the brutal SEC West each year, but Mississippi State is capable of challenging the premier teams of the division. If Mullen can get another great season under his belt in Starkville, he could become a school icon. If the Bulldogs slide again, he might be looking for a new job outside the conference.
Missouri: Gary Pinkel
9 of 14
Odds: 3-1
Gary Pinkel has been through ups and downs as Missouri's head coach, a position he's held since 2001. But his last two seasons with the Tigers have made him a good candidate to stay for several more years.
Missouri has won the SEC East in back-to-back seasons under Pinkel—a remarkable achievement considering how many wrote off the Tigers in the conference after their 5-7 campaign in 2012. Pinkel is Missouri's winningest coach of all time, with a record of 113-66.
Pinkel is in a situation similar to Saban. In April, Pinkel turned 63 and received a contract extension that will keep him in Columbia through 2021. The odds are great that he sees out that contract and retires with the Tigers after Spurrier's deadline of 2019.
Ole Miss: Hugh Freeze
10 of 14
Odds: 7-1
Like Mullen, Hugh Freeze is coming off a great season at Ole Miss. Even though the Rebels finished with only nine wins to Mississippi State's 10, the Rebels defeated No. 1 Alabama at home and won the annual Egg Bowl last season.
Freeze's teams at Ole Miss have improved by one win each year, and that could continue the next few seasons. The program seems to be in better shape for the long haul than its in-state rival. He also has a contract through the 2018 season, and it makes him one of the conference's highest-paid coaches.
If the Rebels can continue to be contenders for the New Year's Six bowls and eventually break the Alabama-Auburn-LSU control of the SEC West crown, Freeze will be in Oxford for a long time.
South Carolina: Steve Spurrier
11 of 14
Odds: 20-1
Now let's #talkabout the Head Ball Coach himself. At age 70, Spurrier looks like a prime candidate to retire in the next few years.
He's under contract through the 2018 season, which would put him out of contract just before the four-year mark he set for the rest of the league's coaches at SEC media days. Some expect him to call it quits on a legendary career within the next couple of seasons, but he told the media on Tuesday he wouldn't be good at "that retirement thing."
Still, no matter what the South Carolina head coach says, it's hard to imagine Spurrier staying as a head coach longer than the next four seasons. He could surprise the college football world and enter 2019's media days as sharp and quick-witted as ever. But retirement after getting the Gamecocks back to contention in the SEC seems like the more likely route.
Tennessee: Butch Jones
12 of 14
Odds: 12-1
Butch Jones is on his way toward rebuilding Tennessee into a national power, as evidenced by his last few recruiting classes and a new contract extension through the 2020 season.
"Butch Jones is our coach and going to be our coach for a long time," Tennessee athletic director Dave Hart said in December, according to ESPN.com's Alex Scarborough. "When building a program, you have plenty of challenges in changing a culture. We have the right man in Butch Jones."
Jones has one of the biggest contracts in the SEC, and it would realistically take a few more seasons of frustration in Knoxville to get him out the door. But until he has the breakout season of a Malzahn, Mullen or Freeze, Jones remains slightly below that SEC West trio in staying power. That could change as soon as this year.
Texas A&M: Kevin Sumlin
13 of 14
Odds: 10-1
One would think Sumlin's name would have cooled off after Texas A&M's 11-2 start to life in the SEC was followed up by nine losses across the next two seasons. But Sumlin was still linked to several coaching vacancies—in the NFL and in college football—this past offseason, per ESPN.com's Chris Mortensen.
Sumlin has turned Texas A&M into a recruiting power during his time with the team, and his recent hires of defensive coordinator John Chavis and run-game coordinator Dave Christensen show the program's commitment to becoming a well-rounded contender in the future.
His current contract, which runs through 2019, has a clause that forces him to pay $5 million to Texas A&M if he leaves before the end of the 2016 season. If he continues to succeed with the Aggies, more and more teams will come calling—especially after 2016. A jump to the NFL could take him away from College Station before 2019.
Vanderbilt: Derek Mason
14 of 14
Odds: 25-1
Head coaches don't tend to last long in Vanderbilt. Many have been fired from the historically struggling SEC East program after several losing seasons, while James Franklin bucked the trend by leaving for Penn State after three solid years with the Commodores.
Derek Mason, whose contract details with Vanderbilt aren't public, is in a similar spot heading into his second year. He inherited a mess of a roster situation after Franklin's departure, and the team went winless in SEC play. With the amount of money coming into the SEC these days, Vanderbilt wouldn't be hesitant on firing the former Stanford coordinator if he has more seasons like the one he had in 2014.
On the other side of the coin, winning seasons at Vanderbilt would turn Mason into a hot candidate at bigger and better programs. Either way, don't expect a Vanderbilt head coach to stay around for at least five seasons.
Justin Ferguson is an on-call college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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