Buy or Sell 2025 MLB World Series Contenders at the All-Star Break
Now that the All-Star Game has come and gone, there will be two days of radio silence before the 2025 MLB season recommences its march to the playoffs.
That is plenty of time to ponder which of the league's top World Series contenders are for real.
We're going to do so by playing a game of "Buy or Sell?" with the 10 teams with the best odds of winning it all at DraftKings. Each would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but the basic question is how well-equipped they are to actually survive October.
What they have now obviously matters. But so does what they might gain ahead of the July 31 trade deadline, for which it matters how much money and prospect capital they have to barter with.
Let's count 'em down.
10. Milwaukee Brewers
1 of 10
Record: 56-40
World Series Odds: +2500
The Brewers have come a long away since opening their 2025 season with a homer-filled nightmare in New York, and they're only getting hotter.
They won 17 of their last 22 games heading into the break. And at plus-81, they have a better run differential than heavy hitters such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies.
Having a top-10 ERA at 3.66 helps, and the Brewers are also scoring a sturdy 4.76 runs per game. This is even though one of their key bats is still waking up, as Jackson Chourio has a .874 OPS to show for his last 30 games.
There is a major concern for this offense, though, as the Brewers rank 23rd in MLB with 93 home runs. It's a potentially fatal flaw come October, as the long ball has been the preferred offensive weapon for championship teams for the last decade.
Milwaukee could conceivably fix this issue on the trade market, but only to a point if the front office shops on the bottom shelf. Assuming the club's two best prospects (All-Star righty Jacob Misiorowski and shortstop Jesús Made) are untouchable, that may be inevitable.
Further, the road ahead is a tough one. The Brewers have a relatively difficult remaining schedule, and it will be a while before Rhys Hoskins is off the injured list. These things won't make it easy to catch the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.
Verdict: Sell
9. Seattle Mariners
2 of 10
Record: 51-45
World Series Odds: +2000
The Mariners were all over the place in the first half, for which their last two series were a microcosm: A bad sweep followed by a triumphant sweep.
Regardless, the hope is for more stability in the second half. And given the circumstances, it's not a fool's hope.
It's only recently that Seattle's pitching staff has begun to resemble the unit that was the envy of MLB in 2024, as Mariners pitchers have a 3.49 ERA since June 13. And if they'll all clicking, nobody will want to face Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in October.
After Cal Raleigh was a one-man show for much of the first half, the real question is how steady the offense can become. There is hope here, too, and not just because Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez got hot at the end of the second half.
All signs point toward the Mariners being aggressive shoppers at the trade deadline, and why not? They have the No. 1 farm system in MLB, according to B/R's Joel Reuter, and catcher Harry Ford is but one prized prospect they can afford to lose.
As they already have ample pitching and an ability to hit the long ball, the Mariners look enough like an October-ready team as is. They also have the law of averages in their favor, as the franchise surely won't be shut out of the World Series forever.
Verdict: Buy
8. Toronto Blue Jays
3 of 10
Record: 55-41
World Series Odds: +2000
The Blue Jays were a game under .500 on May 28, but they have since won 29 out of 42 to ascend to first place in the AL East.
So why the relatively long odds? Well, just look at their run differential.
A plus-17 difference isn't bad, per se, but that's the mark of something more like a 50-win team than a 55-win team. They're punching above their weight, in other words, and it's not like you have to look closely to spot problem areas.
The rotation is one, as José Berríos has been the only reliable starter amid a group with a 4.60 ERA. The lineup has been solid, but it's more of a long-form style of offense compared to when the Blue Jays led MLB in homers in 2021.
To be sure, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is better than a guy with only 12 home runs. Yet he's also the only solid bet among the incumbents for improvement in the second half, whereas the 35-year-old George Springer is ripe for regression.
The Blue Jays may yet make a splash ahead of the trade deadline, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting Zac Gallen is on their radar. He would certainly help, and Toronto frankly needs to make such a seismic move before its World Series odds can truly be taken seriously.
Verdict: Sell
.png?w=256)
7. Chicago Cubs
4 of 10
Record: 57-39
World Series Odds: +1200
The goal for the Cubs should be to get into the playoffs and then look to bludgeon teams with their offense.
The North Siders are second in scoring to the Dodgers, but their offense feels more dangerous. It is elite at both hitting home runs (142) and stealing bases (108), both of which are handy for putting runs on the board in October.
Defense is the other thing the Cubs do really well. They have made the fifth-fewest errors, and they also rank fifth in Outs Above Average.
The mound is where the Cubs are relatively short-handed, though things have been better (i.e., 3.54 ERA) since Shota Imanaga came off the IL on June 26. If he's the No. 1 in their playoff rotation, well, that would be just fine.
And yet, the Cubs are perhaps the top candidate to make an aggressive play on a top-flight starter at the deadline. They've been connected to Mitch Keller, but could probably do better with a deal for, say, Sandy Alcántara.
Also worth noting is the Cubs have MLB's sixth-lowest bullpen ERA at 3.54. Some of that is owed to manager Craig Counsell, who has never met a bullpen he couldn't manage.
Verdict: Buy
6. Houston Astros
5 of 10
Record: 56-40
World Series Odds: +950
The Astros went into the break on a bit of a swoon with losses in five out of six, and more swooning may be in store until they get healthier.
Indeed, their injured list is more like an injured book. They have a total of 16 players on the IL, including a whole bunch of pitchers plus lineup stalwarts like designated hitter Yordan Alvarez and shortstop Jeremy Peña.
Again, though, the whole idea here is to assess playoff-readiness. The Astros should get healthier as the summer rolls along, getting not only Alvarez and Peña back but also key arms such as Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti.
In the meantime, they already have an elite rotation duo in Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. Josh Hader and the bullpen are likewise elite, having posted the third-lowest ERA in MLB at 3.30.
Even with Alvarez and Peña coming back, the Astros will need to get a bat before the deadline passes. They don't have a ton to barter with in this respect, but it also might not take much to land a Ryan O'Hearn or a Cedric Mullins (who interests them).
The short of it is that the Astros are already one of the best teams in the AL even without having been at full strength all year. If they can finally get to that point, their strong play will begin to feel less and less like a fluke.
Verdict: Buy
5. New York Mets
6 of 10
Record: 55-42
World Series Odds: +900
The Mets have made it a little too easy for doubt to creep in, as they're 10-18 since a 45-24 start to the season.
Granted, there's nothing not to like about their lineup trio of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto, who has shut everyone up with a 1.130 OPS since May 31. And at 3.56, the Mets have the fourth-lowest ERA in the league.
Yet like the Detroit Tigers clubs of the early 2010s, it's hard to look at this roster and not see the top-heaviness.
It's certainly there on the offensive side, as even president of baseball operations David Stearns seems spooked by the drop-off in quality in the bottom half of the lineup. And as good as the pitching has been, it is talent-deficient at the back end of both the rotation and the bullpen.
This is a lot that needs to be fixed before the deadline, for which there's good news and bad news. The good is that Mets owner Steve Cohen isn't known for sparing expense. The bad is that the farm isn't especially deep with blue-chip talent.
All this puts us in a difficult spot in terms of assessing the Mets' World Series-readiness. As such, we'll hedge and say the team as it exists right now doesn't quite look up to the task.
Verdict: Sell
4. Philadelphia Phillies
7 of 10
Record: 55-41
World Series Odds: +850
Sure, the Phillies are in first place in the NL East. But the sense that their championship window is closing remains, in no small part because of their offense.
It's a star-studded lineup on paper, yet it's barely north of average in scoring (4.56 runs per game) and it's below average with 102 home runs. It's a wildly mixed bag apart from Kyle Schwarber, and it will remain as much if Bryce Harper's wrist continues to both him.
As for the bullpen, the technical term to describe it is "yeesh."
Phillies relievers have a 4.38 ERA and have generally done more harm than good to the team's win probability. The pen badly needs a big arm at the deadline, though there doesn't seem to be any need to tell Dave Dombrowski that.
Granted, it's hard to completely turn one's back on the Phillies just because of their rotation. Zack Wheeler is a machine, and the unit as a whole leads the majors with a 3.22 ERA. Surely, this alone could sustain them in October, right?
Eh, we're not so sure, actually. Even if Dombrowski is able to fix up the bullpen, that won't make it any easier to bank on a lineup that feels old and past its prime.
Verdict: Sell
3. Detroit Tigers
8 of 10
Record: 59-38
World Series Odds: +700
The Tigers came into 2025 having to prove their out-of-nowhere rise in 2024 was for real. To this end, closing the first half with MLB's best record did the trick.
Whereas Detroit barely scraped by offensively last year, now it's thriving. The lineup landed four players on the AL All-Star roster, and there is significantly more power there than there was last year. We're talking a .385 SLG vs. a .425 SLG.
It otherwise helps to have the best pitcher in MLB. As dominant as Tarik Skubal was in 2024, his ERA, WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio have somehow all taken turns for the better in 2025.
Yet there are two areas where strikeouts represent a significant concern for the Tigers. On the offensive side, their 23.1 K% is the highest of any team on this list. Their bullpen is on the other end of the spectrum, as its 19.6 K% is the third-lowest in the league.
As Detroit could also use another starter underneath Skubal, there's clearly work to do at the trade deadline. Optimism is warranted, though, as president of baseball operations Scott Harris has a deep farm system and plenty of financial flexibility.
Although this is not a perfect team in the meantime, its strengths (i.e., power and Skubal) have thus far easily outweighed its weaknesses. We're inclined to put stock in that and in a busy deadline, even if this is more of a soft buy.
Verdict: Buy
2. New York Yankees
9 of 10
Record: 53-43
World Series Odds: +650
The Yankees began to hit the skids right about when the Mets did, and ultimately went into the break as losers of 18 out of their last 29.
Nonetheless, it isn't surprising that they retain such strong World Series odds. They are the reigning American League champs, after all, and they have a plus-111 run differential despite their recent time in the doldrums.
The Yankees also still have Aaron Judge, who owns 35 of their league-leading 151 home runs. While he doesn't have Juan Soto anymore, he does have a reasonably strong cast of supporting characters who have been varying degrees of warm lately.
On the other side of the ball, the Yankees could do a lot worse than Max Fried and Carlos Rodón at the top of a playoff rotation. Their bullpen isn't lacking for swing-and-miss stuff, as it ranks fourth in MLB in strikeouts per nine.
Yet unless Luis Gil dials his clock back to 2024 when he comes off the IL, the loss of Clarke Schmidt renders the Yankees without a No. 3 starter. And while they are in the market for upgrades on the infield and on the mound, they could be hamstrung by a weak farm system and an already bloated luxury-tax payroll.
It otherwise feels appropriate to grade on a curve here. As much as the Yankees are clearly a World Series contender, the notion they are this much of one is suspect.
Verdict: Sell
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
10 of 10
Record: 58-39
World Series Odds: +255
It's weird to behold a team with the best record in the National League and consider it a disappointment, but that's what the Dodgers get for setting such high expectations.
Even with Max Muncy on the injured list and the team having gone into a slump in July, there's little point in hand-wringing about the Dodgers' offense. It'll be fine, as it leads MLB in scoring and the NL in home runs even with Mookie Betts still working to get his bat going.
The real question, of course, is what the Dodgers' pitching staff is going to look like come October.
It's been banged up from Day 1, and only Blake Snell is close to rejoining Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Clayton Kershaw in the rotation. It's also just plain hard to take anything for granted with various IL returnees, as the Dodgers don't have the best reputation for keeping arms healthy.
Also, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman can't assume his bullpen will be fixed from within. Its 4.38 ERA is 24th in the league, and the long ball has been a bit too frequent.
Then again, this is the same team that won the 2024 World Series even without a reliable starter and holes in the pen. There's still some good will left over from that effort, and Friedman has both the time and the resources to fix the pitching.
Verdict: Buy
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
