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MLB Home Run Derby 2025 Preview and Predictions
With this year's Home Run Derby taking place just a few days after the Superman movie was released in theatres, it'd be apropos to get some "BANG!" "SMASH!" and "POW!" graphics flashing across the screen with each crack of the bat.
There certainly should be some superhuman feats of strength on display in Atlanta's Truist Park on Monday night, as heroes from the Big Dumper and La Máxima to Oly and Buck try to win what is annually one of the most entertaining exhibitions on the sports calendar.
With Teoscar Hernández not coming back to defend his 2024 crown, we're guaranteed a new derby champion this year. In fact, with the exception of hometown hero Matt Olson, no one in this year's field has participated in the Home Run Derby before—and Olson didn't make it out of the first round when he previously did it.
So, which of these derby fledglings is best equipped to win?
After a recap of the rules and format, we'll highlight each of the eight mashers' year-to-date accolades—in descending order of home run totals in the first half—before offering up predictions.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, captured at 9am ET Sunday. Home run totals current through end of play on Sunday.
2025 Home Run Derby Rules/Format
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The good news about the upcoming derby is that the rules are the same as last year. MLB tends to overhaul the format every couple of years for what is seemingly the sole purpose of giving everyone something to talk/argue about. But 2025's competition will play out just like 2024's.
We could all use a refresher on what were some convoluted rules, though.
Round 1 is the free-for-all. Each of the eight contestants will have either three minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first, to hit as many home runs as possible. (Each masher is also allotted one 45-second timeout.) After either time or number of pitches runs out, there's also a bonus period with no time or pitch limit. During this bonus period, players continue to homer until they record three outs (any swing that is not a home run). If a home run is hit at least 425 feet, they earn a fourth out.
The four players with the most home runs advance to the semifinals. In the event of a tie, the player who hit the longest home run advances, or receives the higher seed. (If that is also a tie, I would assume the next tiebreaker is distance of the second-longest home run, though that is not explicitly in the rules. Maybe they play rock-paper-scissors?)
In the semifinals, it switches to head-to-head, with No. 1 facing No. 4 and No. 2 drawing No. 3. (Totals from Round 1 determine seeding, but otherwise do not carry over.)
The other big change for the semifinals and finals is that any ties will be broken by a swing-off. Initially, it's an additional 60-second period for each player. If they're still tied, it's goes to a three-swing format, which they'll repeat as many times as necessary until someone wins, like the two-point conversions portion of overtime in college football.
Finals are the same as the semifinals, except the length of the round is reduced to two minutes or 27 pitches.
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
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2025 Home Run Count: 38
Biggest Blasts:
Odds: +295
Though Cal Raleigh leads the majors with 38 home runs, he curiously is not one of the nearly 70 players this season who have hit at least one ball that traveled more than 440 feet. In fact, only four of the Big Dumper's big dumps have traveled at least 425 feet, and only one of his 34 from last season went at least 430 feet.
Getting that fourth out during bonus time in any given round could be a struggle.
However, that slight negative is more than offset by the fact that Raleigh A) has been the most prolific homer-hitter over the past three-plus months and B) figures to join 2023 Adley Rutschman as the only derby participant to hit from both sides of the plate.
Raleigh has hit 22 home runs from the left-handed batter's box this season, but he has especially annihilated left-handed pitching, slugging .861 with 16 home runs in 101 ABs as a righty. That's a rate of one home run for every 6.3 ABs, slightly better than Barry Bonds' 6.5 mark during his 73-HR campaign in 2001.
What Seattle/Raleigh should do is have switch-pitching prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje pitch. That way, if Raleigh does want to swap boxes for fatigue-reducing purposes, he's at least facing the same arm slot that he's used to facing. Plus, Cijntje is already in Atlanta for the Futures Game, so why not a little bonus time in the spotlight for their unicorn?
James Wood, Washington Nationals
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2025 Home Run Count: 24
Biggest Blasts:
Odds: +475
Where does "motivation that stems from getting snubbed by the All-Star voters" rank among reasons to bet on a Home Run Derby participant?
Acknowledging full well that there are a lot of quality options among National League outfielders this season, it's patently absurd that James Wood was not one of the six finalists who made it into Phase 2 of the voting, considering he entered this past weekend top seven among all position players in both FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR.
He did still make it in as a reserve, but that might be quite the chip on his shoulder to put on a show for the masses who evidently have yet to realize how special he is—like it was for Julio Rodríguez three years ago.
Not that you need any extra reason to think this 6'7", all-fields slugger could win this thing.
Much like the equally-heighted Aaron Judge, Wood generates remarkable bat speed while making it look almost effortless. Ten of his 24 home runs this season have traveled at least 425 feet, most of them to straightaway center. He even hit one 413 feet to opposite field in Atlanta earlier this season.
I'll be sure to reiterate when we get to the predictions that I am dreadful at predicting who will actually do well in the derby. But with that qualifier in mind, it would be a bit shocking if Wood doesn't at least make it out of the first round.
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
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2025 Home Run Count: 23
Biggest Blasts:
Odds: +1200
The most unforgettable Home Run Derby performances are the ones with preposterous, upper-deck moonshots.
However, you don't need to regularly launch balls close to 500 feet during the regular season in order to win. Just ask last year's winner, Teoscar Hernández, who entered the exhibition with only one home run that traveled at least 425 feet, that personal best through the first half traveling 431 feet.
Which brings us to Junior Caminero, who ranks top 10 in the majors in total home runs and second only to Oneil Cruz for what would be the MLB lead in average bat speed, but who has hit 22 of his 23 home runs less than 420 feet.
That lack of long dingers doesn't necessarily make him unlikely to win the derby.
Here's what is concerning, though: Caminero also ranks second in the majors in average swing length, at 8.3 feet. And in what is an endurance competition even more so than a strength competition, a long swing might as well be a death sentence.
A nice compact swing full of power is what has made Pete Alonso (7.1 feet this season) such a derby specialist over the years. In now the third year of bat tracking data on Statcast, Caminero will be the first derby participant with an average swing length of greater than 8.0 feet.
Maybe he powers through the first round no problem, but of the eight mashers, he almost has to be the most susceptible to fatigue by the finals. Given he already has an average home run length of just 390 feet, operating on anything less than a full tank of gas could turn into "warning track power" in a hurry.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
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2025 Home Run Count: 21
Biggest Blasts:
Odds: +950
Given Byron Buxton's extensive injury history, the 31-year-old's decision to partake in the Home Run Derby was a big surprise.
So many players worry that the derby could screw up their swing for the second half, but a healthy-for-a-change Buxton is looking to make the most of a "best shape of my life" type of year, on pace for career bests in just about every category imaginable.
And considering he has hit the second-longest home run of this entire season—his 479-foot bomb trailing only the hanging curveball that Mike Trout demolished 484 feet—who's to say he can't win it?
As it turns out, it's mostly the betting public saying just that.
As of Friday afternoon (before news of Ronald Acuña Jr. pulling out of the derby), only 0.9 percent of the handle was on Buxton to win, per For The Win's Blake Schuster. Each of the other seven competitors was at at least 6.9 percent. so there's little question who's the odd man out as far as expectations are concerned heading into Monday night.
Then again, Buxton left the game early on Wednesday when he got hit on the hand by a pitch about 48 hours after the announcement of his participation in the Home Run Derby, so maybe people are just waiting to make sure he actually makes it to the derby before betting that he'll yank a ton of homers into the left-field seats.
Brent Rooker, Athletics
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2025 Home Run Count: 20
Biggest Blasts:
Odds: +850
Hitting a home run of any distance off Tarik Skubal is a borderline superhuman feat, but a 415-foot, 110.0 MPH exit velocity no-doubter off what is likely to become the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner was quite the audition for the Home Run Derby.
When it comes to Brent Rooker, though, that special shot hardly felt like an outlier.
He doesn't get the national recognition that he deserves as a member of an Athletics team going nowhere fast, but since the beginning of 2023, Rooker ranks top 10 in the majors with 89 home runs. He's also top 10 in slugging percentage (.522) during those 2.5 seasons.
Fans in right field at Truist Park might as well take their gloves off while Rooker is at the dish, though. He has yet to hit a home run to the right field side of dead center yet this season, and the two home runs that he did hit to the opposite field in the past three years just barely cleared the fence.
Fans in left field might want to don a little extra protective gear, though, because Rooker can rip some frozen ropes more than 400 feet.
Notably, the derby is usually a young man's game, and Rooker turns 31 in November. However, Teoscar Hernández was a year older than Rooker is now when he won it last year, so it might not be a problem.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees
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2025 Home Run Count: 17
Biggest Blasts:
Odds: +1100
With all due respect to Jazz Chisholm Jr., this isn't the Yankee we would have hand-selected for the Home Run Derby field.
But what an opportunity for him to shine outside of Aaron Judge's 6'7" shadow for a few hours, right?
Chisholm always was a solid slugger during his time with Miami, but he has found a new gear over the past 11+ months with the Yankees, hitting 28 home runs in 110 games played. That's a 162-game pace of 41 for a guy who maxed out at 19 in a season with the Marlins.
Despite missing the entire month of May with an oblique injury, Chisholm is (barring another injury) likely to destroy his previous career-best for home runs in a single season—the 24 he hit last year.
His left-handed power certainly should play well at Truist Park, too, with Statcast putting his year-to-date expected home runs in Atlanta at 20, behind only the 22 he would have at the Triple-A launching pad in West Sacramento.
And if anyone in the field is going to be a little extra motivated to win the derby because of the chain that goes to the champion, wouldn't it be the one who was wearing a chain with pandas on it during the World Series?
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
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2025 Home Run Count: 17
Biggest Blasts:
Odds: +800
Better late than never, right?
Though Ronald Acuña Jr. played this weekend against St. Louis and is expect to still partake in the All-Star Game, he backed out of the Home Run Derby on Friday night, with teammate Matt Olson taking his place, hoping to become the fourth player to win the derby at home and the first Atlanta Brave to ever win one.
Unlike the rest of this year's field, Olson does have some derby experience, competing in 2021 in Denver. Granted, it wasn't great experience, bounced in the first round by Trey Mancini back when the head-to-head format carried through all rounds.
Maybe he learned something valuable that he can use this year, though?
One thing's for sure about Olson: He's a streaky slugger.
When he led the majors with 54 home runs in 2023, there was a 17-game stretch in which he hit 11 home runs, followed immediately by an 18-game homerless drought, that followed immediately by a tear of eight home runs in 10 games. He also had a five-game spurt in mid-May of this season with four home runs and a video game-like 1.760 OPS.
Yes, sizzling for a week or a couple of weeks is more than a little bit different than getting into a groove for a few minutes at a time in the Home Run Derby, but there's something to be said for Olson's ability to mash when his confidence level is high.
He's also the one player in this field who is most intimately familiar with how the ball travels through the air at Truist Park.
We'll see if home-field advantage ends up being an advantage.
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2025 Home Run Count: 16
Biggest Blasts:
Odds: +320
Nobody swings harder than Oneil Cruz, and there is nothing hyperbolic about that statement.
In the entire 2024 season, there were four fair balls hit with an exit velocity north of 120 MPH.
Cruz hit all four of them.
In addition to the three biggest blasts listed above, he also hit a 432 foot laser with a 122.9 MPH exit velocity earlier this season, which was the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era.
Cruz has the highest average bat speed in the majors this season at 78.6 MPH, and he finished second only to Giancarlo Stanton last season.
With how angrily he swings the bat, it's fair to question whether endurance will be more of a problem for Cruz than it is for most of the field. Then again, the hard-swinging Stanton convincingly won the derby back in 2016 when he was the same age as Cruz is now, and Cruz is every bit as large a human being as Stanton is.
Long story short, if you're only able to carve out about 10 minutes of watching this year's Home Run Derby, make sure it's for the show Cruz ought to put on in the first round. It could rival what Josh Hamilton did in 2008.
Predictions
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This is my fourth consecutive year writing our Home Run Derby preview, and if you've been betting on my predictions, well, hopefully it wasn't too much money.
Last year, I had Bobby Witt Jr. over Gunnar Henderson in the finals. While Witt did finish first runner-up, Henderson finished dead last while Teoscar Hernández (who I had getting eliminated in the first round) won. In 2023, I got the winners in each of the first-round matchups correct, but missed both semifinals. And my 2022 prediction of Pete Alonso over José Ramírez was just laughably bad.
Yet, we soldier on; a blind squirrel searching for a nut.
In the first round, it's really hard to bet against any of Oneil Cruz (-225 to reach semifinals), Cal Raleigh (-240) or James Wood (-135). History tells us at least one of the three betting favorites is going to get bounced immediately, but they also are the favorites for a reason. And for the fourth spot, Byron Buxton (+120) will carry enough momentum from his cycle on Saturday to advance out of the first round.
In the semifinals, No. 4 seed Buxton upsets No. 1 seed Cruz, the latter simply running out of gas from all his vicious swings. But the other semifinal packs the drama with No. 2 seed Wood outlasting No. 3 seed Raleigh in a tiebreaker.
And for the exact result in the championship almost sure to go wrong: Wood over Buxton (+3500).
