Predicting the Biggest Storylines for the Remainder of the 2015 NBA Offseason
With the Las Vegas Summer League winding down and just about every significant free agent off the market, the NBA offseason is finally entering its slow period.
For the next two months, most players' top priority should be continuing their training and development while getting some much-needed R and R. After all, the grind of an 82-game season is unforgiving for even the most athletically gifted talents, as LeBron James demonstrated with his two-week hiatus in the 2014-15 season.
Meanwhile, teams must assess their current rosters and decide if they have the players they're willing to go to war with this coming year. If not, general managers will be signing back-of-the-rotation free agents and making plenty of phone calls to assess the trade value of any players they're hoping to flip.
Some league-related drama is certainly on the horizon, too. The playoff structure could undergo a significant change in October, while the league office and players' union may continue ramping up their conflicting rhetoric regarding the next collective bargaining agreement, making a lockout in 2017 appear inevitable.
Between now and training camp, nine storylines merit the most attention, based on their potential short- and long-term impact on the league's future.
Can DeMarcus Cousins and George Karl Make Up?
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When the relationship between your team's head coach and franchise cornerstone is described as "not pretty right now," it's a story that commands serious attention.
That's exactly what Vlade Divac, the Sacramento Kings' vice president of basketball operations, dubbed the rapport between George Karl and DeMarcus Cousins during a recent appearance on The Jim Rome Show. However, he shot down any rumors about parting ways with either, saying, "I want to keep them both here for now."
It's not difficult to trace the seeds of dissension between Karl and Boogie. Two days prior to the draft, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported the head coach had an "intense desire to trade the All-Star center," which "has made it increasingly unlikely this coach-star partnership can peacefully co-exist next season."
If the painfully awkward handshake the two shared at the Las Vegas Summer League is any indication, they're seemingly a ways away from repairing their relationship. Karl told CBS Sports' Ken Berger that he "want[ed] to talk to Cuz, but the situation, because of how it got, I think we've got to be patient to get to that point."
Whenever this meeting of the minds eventually occurs, expect it to garner league-wide interest. If Boogie and Karl can't agree to put their differences behind them and move forward productively, the Kings' season could be sunk before it even begins.
Which Fourth-Year Players Will Sign Extensions?
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Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard didn't take long to agree to extensions with their respective teams once free agency began on July 1. The focus now turns to their fellow rising fourth-year peers, many of whom reportedly hope to ink long-term pacts with their franchises this summer, too.
According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, one member of the 2012 draft class may not be far from doing just that. The Milwaukee Bucks "are in advanced negotiations" regarding an extension with John Henson, per Stein, and "that would seal him as part of a growing and blossoming core" alongside Jabari Parker, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Carter-Williams and the newly signed Greg Monroe.
The Washington Wizards similarly plan on beginning "serious talks with Bradley Beal regarding a contract extension" in the coming weeks, reported J. Michael of CSN Washington. "We had to get past that first nine or 10 days of free agency. With that chaotic period over, [Wizards president] Ernie [Grunfeld] and I will talk and see where we are," Beal's agent, Mark Bartelstein, told Michael.
Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond also appears to be headed for a fat payday, as Stan Van Gundy, the team's president and head coach, told Terry Foster of the Detroit News that they "will begin contract extension talks" within the next few weeks. With team owner Tom Gores having called Drummond a "maximum player" at the end of the season, contract terms shouldn't be too difficult to hash out.
Extension talks for other promising fourth-year players, including Charlotte's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Golden State's Harrison Barnes, figure to heat up between now and the Oct. 31 deadline, too. However, some teams may attempt to convince their extension-eligible players to take the Kawhi Leonard approach—decline an extension to become a restricted free agent, helping free more cap space for 2016.
What Will the Cavs Do with Brendan Haywood?
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The Cleveland Cavaliers now have less than two weeks to decide what to do with Brendan Haywood's non-guaranteed $10.5 million contract.
If Haywood isn't waived by Aug. 1, his 2015-16 salary becomes fully guaranteed, meaning the Cavs are on the clock with their decision one way or another. While they'd ideally like to flip him for a productive rotation member—a backup wing who can soak up minutes behind LeBron James stands out as an area of need—they haven't found a suitable deal just yet.
"If the names were such that we were willing to take them and not want the flexibility, we would," general manager David Griffin told reporters during the Las Vegas Summer League. "And right now, there hasn't been a name that's available that's worth losing that flexibility for."
Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal suggested Cleveland might be best off if it moves Haywood to a team with open cap space, creating a trade exception in exchange. With an already soaring luxury-tax bill, the Cavs could decide to hold off on absorbing a player into that exception until the trade deadline (in case a key contributor suffers a serious injury) or next July, when the salary cap leaps.
One thing's for certain: The Cavs would be certifiably insane to stand pat and not move Haywood at all, as he represents their best chance to improve their roster over the next 12 months. Whether it's for a player or a trade exception, Cleveland will almost assuredly be flipping Haywood by July 31.
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Will the NBA Take Hold in Africa?
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On Aug. 1, Miami Heat forward Luol Deng will help lead the charge against Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul and the Gasol brothers in the NBA's first-ever exhibition game in Africa.
Johannesburg will host the NBA Africa Game 2015, which will pit a team of African-born and second-generation African players against a squad comprised of players from around the world. The game, which will be played in support of the Boys & Girls Clubs of South Africa, SOS Children's Villages of South Africa and the Nelson Mandela Foundation, will air on ESPN at 9 a.m. ET.
Deng, Milwaukee Bucks swingman Giannis Antetokounmpo and Charlotte Hornets forward Nicolas Batum will lead Team Africa, while Paul, the Gasols and Washington Wizards sharpshooter Bradley Beal will anchor Team World. With San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich at the helm, Team Africa certainly should put up a fight on its home turf, despite possessing the weaker roster on paper.
"A lot of players from Africa and all over the world work so hard to make it to the NBA so they can represent their country with pride," Deng told ESPN.com's Michael Wallace recently. "Now, to finally have a chance to bring the game we all love home to Africa...it's hard to really explain how much that means. It will impact people the rest of their lives."
If this game helps the NBA make further inroads in Africa—the league opened an office in Johannesburg five years ago—it only figures to benefit the long-term health of basketball. Accordingly, it's critical for this contest to go off without a hitch.
Will Any Big Names Miss Team USA Minicamp?
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In preparation for the 2016 Summer Olympics, Team USA will be hosting a minicamp in Las Vegas from Aug. 11-13. While the on-court competition isn't expected to be fierce, USA Basketball Managing Director Jerry Colangelo told ESPN.com's Marc Stein, attendance is mandatory for those hoping to compete next summer in Brazil.
"I think it's important for those who want to continue with us and be under consideration for '16 to be with us in Las Vegas for a couple days," Colangelo told Stein. "It's going to be a very difficult team to pick and get down to 12. So we need to have them there because we need to find out where we are with everyone."
Colangelo echoed those comments to Justin Termine and Malik Rose on Sirius XM's NBA Today, saying if Paul George and Kevin Durant wanted to be a part of the squad heading to Rio de Janiero, they needed to attend this summer's minicamp. Though both players are recovering from injuries, Colangelo told Stein "it's important for everyone to be here as a sign of commitment for '16."
There are currently 34 players on the U.S. men's national basketball team roster, and seven others, including Chicago Bulls swingman Jimmy Butler and Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green, will also receive invites to attend the minicamp, per Stein. Paring those 41 players down to 12 will be a significant challenge for Colangelo and Co., which is why attendance at minicamp is compulsory.
Will anyone stand out at the minicamp, a la Cleveland Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving back in 2012? Will a big-name player such as Durant, George or LeBron James decide to bypass camp, and potentially put their Olympic future in jeopardy? Those hoping to see a Team USA three-peat will be watching intently in mid-August.
Will the Milwaukee Bucks' Arena Proposal Pass?
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With the specter of potential relocation looming, civic leaders have begun making legitimate progress toward a new arena for the Milwaukee Bucks. On July 15, the state Senate of Wisconsin approved $250 million in public subsidies for the new $500 million arena, as Jason Stein and Patrick Marley of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported:
"The measure passed 21-10 and goes to the Assembly, which like the Senate is controlled by Republicans. No date has been set for an Assembly vote, but for the first time in months, the proposal has momentum.
The plan would preserve Milwaukee's stake in professional basketball but at a cost to state, city and county residents, who ultimately would pay $400 million, when accounting for interest over 20 years.
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Earlier in July, Milwaukee Bucks President Peter Feigin told lawmakers that if construction for a new arena didn't begin in 2015, the NBA would buy back the Bucks and move them to "Las Vegas or Seattle," according to Mark Kass of the Milwaukee Business Journal. "We can't wait months, even weeks to start the public process," he said at the time.
While the state Senate's approval of the proposed arena is undoubtedly a positive sign—Feigin dubbed it a "significant step forward" in a statement on the team's website—much work remains before it gains final passage. Until lawmakers officially approve the new arena, Milwaukee fans—along with basketball fans in Seattle and Las Vegas—should be watching the legislative process closely.
Injuries, Injuries, Injuries
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NBA fans already received a major blow in mid-July, when the Philadelphia 76ers announced Joel Embiid, the No. 3 overall pick in 2014, would likely miss his second straight season to undergo a bone graft of the fracture in his right foot. Though Jahlil Okafor will help blunt the pain for Sixers fans, Embiid's ongoing injury woes are an undeniable setback to the team's ongoing rebuild.
Embiid isn't the only one who was set to return from a serious injury this upcoming season, however. Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Paul George and newly signed Dallas Mavericks 2-guard Wesley Matthews are all working their way back from season-ending injuries, too.
Earlier in July, Los Angeles Lakers head coach Byron Scott said Bryant, who tore his rotator cuff in January, had been limited to "old-school training: squats and lunges and leg presses and things like that to keep his legs strong," per Bill Oram of the Orange County Register. "His range of motion is great," Scott said, but he isn't set to start shooting until "probably the end of this month."
Matthews, who just signed a four-year, $70 million max deal with the Mavericks, is reportedly "ahead of schedule" on his rehab from the torn Achilles tendon he suffered in March, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein. The 2-guard believes the injury will actually help him, he told reporters, as it forced him to do "things I normally wouldn't be doing—the Pilates work, the core work, flexibility, hip mobility."
Durant, who underwent three surgeries on his right foot this past year, expects to be fully cleared by August, per ESPN.com's Royce Young, while George made his unexpected return from a broken leg late last season. Though there's no reason to expect setbacks for any of these four big-name players, their respective recoveries bear monitoring until training camp begins.
Are Playoff Tweaks Coming?
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This past spring, despite having a worse record than five other teams in the Western Conference, the Portland Trail Blazers received a top-four playoff seed by virtue of winning their division. That rankled Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers, whose third-seeded team drew possibly the most terrifying No. 6 seed in NBA history, the San Antonio Spurs.
If NBA Commissioner Adam Silver's suspicions are correct, however, Rivers won't ever again have to worry about a repeat of that scenario unfolding.
Following a NBA Board of Governors meeting on July 14, Silver told reporters that the Competition Committee recommended seeding "one through eight based on conference standings for the playoffs," eliminating the guaranteed top-four seed. Though the proposal wasn't voted on during the meeting, the commissioner said he expects "that change will be adopted before the beginning of this coming season."
Apparently, that wasn't the only playoff-related tweak proposed during the NBA's ownership meetings in Las Vegas. On Thursday, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban revealed that he proposed expanding the postseason field to 10 teams per conference, according to Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News.
Cuban's suggestion wouldn't quite work as he relayed on Cyber Dust—Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal explained the flaws here—but seeding tweaks clearly weren't the only proposal put on the table. Whether the 20-team playoff field has any chance of being accepted is another matter entirely, however.
Is a Lockout Brewing?
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Though business is booming like never before, the NBA may still be hurdling toward a lockout in just two years' time. Both the team owners and players' union are allowed to opt out of the current collective bargaining agreement following the 2016-17 season, an outcome that's seemingly growing more likely by the day.
Following the July 14 NBA Board of Governors meeting, Commissioner Silver told reporters "a significant number of teams are continuing to lose money," although he didn't reveal the exact number. He also noted the league "could be writing a check moving close to a half a billion dollars" to the players' union after the 2016-17 season, as players' contracts won't reach their guaranteed percentage of revenue.
Two days later, Michele Roberts, the executive director of the National Basketball Players Association, fired back. In a statement emailed to CBS Sports' Ken Berger and other reporters, Roberts said, "All of the data we have access to indicates that our business is thriving and will continue to do so for the near future."
A source told Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears "close to 10 NBA teams are amongst the losing [money] category" that Silver spoke of, which Grantland's Zach Lowe likewise reported Wednesday. Lowe said "most losses are small (less than $10M)" and "could be easily solved by [revenue] sharing," but he did note "the issue of growing expenses is real, especially for small/mid-market teams with crappy local TV deals."
With conflicting rhetoric flying back and forth—despite both sides supposedly not wanting to negotiate in public—the seeds of a lockout in 2017 are already being sewn. Since even self-proclaimed lockout optimists like Lowe expect "a short work stoppage," the question is: Will it cost the league any games like it did in 2011-12?
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