1 Prediction for Every Team In 2025 NBA Free Agency
The NBA offseason is already off to a rip-roaring start with trades galore. And you know what? It’s about to get even more hectic with free agency right around the corner.
If the most recent transactions are any indication—Kevin Durant to Houston, Desmond Bane to Orlando, Jrue Holiday to Portland—we are in for a truly wild summer. That necessitates busting out the crystal ball before the clock strikes 6 p.m. EST on Monday, Jun. 30, and free agency officially begins.
Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes and Dan Favale are being tapped as your resident soothsayers. Their predictions will cover everything from trades and rumors to signings and extensions. Let’s begin!
Atlanta Hawks: No Max for Trae Young
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Three-time All-Star Trae Young is eligible for a four-year $228.6 million extension this offseason, but don’t expect the Atlanta Hawks to give it to him.
With teams around the league hamstrung by the aprons, we may be entering a new era in which the top player on every team can no longer expect a rubber-stamped max extension. The ultra-elites will get their cash, but Young isn’t quite in that tier of talent.
The Hawks look well equipped to move into the latter half of the decade without Young if necessary. Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher and Dyson Daniels are all quality starters aged 25 or under. Young is clearly still the main orchestrator in Atlanta, but it’s much easier to imagine the team moving forward with a cheaper alternative—if it comes to that.
With a $48.9 million player option for 2026-27, Young could effectively function as an expiring contract this coming season. Atlanta would surely like to reach some kind of deal, if only to avoid the possibility of its best offensive player leaving for nothing. But the Hawks shouldn’t rush to get something done if it means forking over the largest amount allowed.
-Hughes
Boston Celtics: Al Horford Won't Be Back
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Lost amid the speculation about which Boston Celtics star will follow Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis out the door this summer, Al Horford’s unrestricted free agency looms as another highly likely departure.
If the Celtics were considering dealing players as good as Jaylen Brown and Derrick White because they’re worried about a $500 million combined salary-and-tax payment, there’s no way they’ll spend additional money to bring back a 39-year-old reserve.
That’s not to say Horford is without his uses. Last year, he again provided uncommonly versatile defense, three-point shooting and veteran savvy in the frontcourt. In fact, his continued age-defying production is part of the reason he won’t be back in Boston. Several contenders will come calling, and at least one is likely to offer much more than the Celtics are willing to pay.
Don’t be surprised if Horford commands the full mid-level exception worth a starting salary of $14.1 million.
-Hughes
Brooklyn Nets: All That Cap Space Won't Go to Free Agents
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This offseason will serve as a strong reminder that cap flexibility often has nothing to do with straight spending.
The Brooklyn Nets are the only team with max cap space (and then some), but they’re not going to use it to sign outside free agents. Part of the reason: There really aren’t any—unless you’re of the opinion that James Harden, LeBron James or Julius Randle are eager to decline their player options because they want to sign on for big bucks with a rebuilding, lottery-bound outfit.
Beyond that, Brooklyn will recognize that handing out contracts simply isn’t the best use of its financial power. Instead, it’ll look to insert itself into deals between other teams that require a third-party facilitator.
That’s where the Nets can extract real value, by absorbing contracts with picks and young players attached. With parity reigning, there’ll be plenty of teams that view themselves as one player away from a legitimate title shot. The Nets will be there waiting to capitalize, wielding immense leverage as the only team capable of pushing major deals across the finish line.
-Hughes
Charlotte Hornets: An Extension-Free Summer
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Jusuf Nurkić, Josh Green and Grant Williams are all eligible for extensions this summer, and the bet here is that the Charlotte Hornets will conveniently misplace their wallet ahead of negotiations.
Nurkić, Green and Williams are trade acquisitions who didn’t sign their current deals with the Hornets. All three came aboard via trades that were more about the attached picks than the players themselves.
Green netted Charlotte 2029 and 2030 second-rounders in a six-team deal with Denver; Williams came over from the Dallas Mavericks with a 2027 first-rounder; the Suns sent a 2026 first with Nurkić.
The only way the Hornets would add years to any of these deals is if they were convinced it’d up their trade value. That’s a tough sell when measured against the appeal of Nurkić, Williams and Green on expiring deals. Teams with worse, longer-term agreements would probably send Charlotte even more draft capital in exchange for the savings of contracts that expire sooner.
-Hughes
Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey Won't Crack $30 Million per Year
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HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto reported back in May that “the belief around the league” is that Chicago Bulls restricted free agent Josh Giddey was looking for a contract in the range of the five-year, $150 million agreement Jalen Suggs signed with the Orlando Magic last offseason.
NBA insider Jake Fischer called it even earlier than that with a report way back in October suggesting Giddey would be looking for at least $30 million per year.
Two factors make those predictions seem likely. First, Giddey caught fire after the All-Star break, averaging 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.3 assists across his final 19 games of the season. Second, this is the Bulls we’re talking about; they handed restricted free agent Patrick Williams a five-year, $90 million deal (with a player option on the fifth season) last summer, despite no market forces necessitating an expenditure that ridiculous.
In a sense, this is a wager that Chicago will act rationally. And yes, it’s uncomfortable to take that stance. But the Bulls have to know nobody is coming in over the top with a huge offer sheet for Giddey, who has never been a major factor on a winner and whose defensive shortcomings are a major red flag.
-Hughes
Cleveland Cavaliers: Ty Jerome Won't Be Back
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The Cleveland Cavaliers can offer Ty Jerome up to $64 million over four years, a figure only the Brooklyn Nets can beat. Don’t assume that means one of last year’s biggest breakout players is a lock to stay in Cleveland.
The Cavs can beat most of the market, and they would under normal circumstances. Jerome was a huge reason they racked up a franchise-record 64 wins. His 12.5 points, 3.4 assists, seemingly 100-percent floater hit rate and opportunistic defense buoyed Cleveland’s second units, extending leads and putting games away when the starters rested.
These are not normal circumstances for the Cavs, though. Cleveland projects to land roughly $13 million above the second apron, meaning a contract that pays Jerome $14 million next year would include an extra $80 million in tax penalties.
Jerome is an extremely useful reserve, but he’s not a $94 million player. Some other team can onboard him for much less and offer him more playing time—all without those brutal tax penalties.
-Hughes
Dallas Mavericks: They will Use the Mini MLE to Sign A Point Guard
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Signing Kyrie Irving to a three-year, $120 million that required him to decline his player option saves the Dallas Mavericks over $7 million in salary for next season. That is enough scratch for them to use the mini mid-level exception of $5.7 million and still have a slight buffer beneath the second apron.
Not every team uses the mini MLE when it’s available to them. The Mavericks will. And they will spend it on a point guard.
Kyrie is recovering from a torn ACL in his left knee, and it’ll be a real shocker if he returns before the calendar flips to 2026. Head coach Jason Kidd is already planning to trial-by-fire No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg at point guard, but rookies are generally subject to a steep learning curve, and Dallas is trying to win now.
Someone higher end than Spencer Dinwiddie and Jaden Hardy should be gettable for the mini MLE. D’Angelo Russell is a potentially nifty stopgap who can also log time beside Kyrie when he returns, but names like Tyus Jones, Tre Jones, Chris Paul and Malcolm Brogdon should all be on the Mavs’ radar as well.
—Favale
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic will Not Sign an Extension
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Nikola Jokić can sign a three-year, $212.5 million extension this summer. But he won’t. Or at least, he shouldn’t.
Waiting allows Jokić to secure an extra year’s worth of security in an extension next summer. Yet, this is more about his tacitly-but-firmly applying pressure to the Denver Nuggets front office by making it clear that his continued loyalty is conditional upon the team getting better.
Nobody who employs the world’s best player should need that kind of reality check. The Nuggets apparently do. Team governor Josh Kroenke’s recent press conference proves as much. He went into the challenges of building around the second apron that he and other franchise figureheads (mostly) pushed for, and how that could lead to one day moving Jokić if the organization makes the wrong decision or investment elsewhere.
These sentiments are candid on their face, but they also amount to using the second apron as cover for complacency. That’s unacceptable.
And sure, this could be a misread of the situation. Maybe the Nuggets are prepared to search the trade market for necessary upgrades—for essential risks. Jokić shouldn’t give them the benefit of the doubt. Not anymore.Passing on an extension, for now, instills a sense of urgency in the decision-makers that they, inexplicably, don’t otherwise seem to have.
—Favale
Detroit Pistons: If Malik Beasley Is Back, Others Won't Be
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Malik Beasley’s shooting was a key element in the Detroit Pistons’ otherwise spacing-starved offense last season, and he should be the offseason’s top retention priority. The Pistons only have his non-Bird rights and can’t offer him more than a starting salary of $7.2 million unless they make moves to create cap space. The full mid-level exception would also be an option of Detroit operates over the cap, netting Beasley as much as $60.6 million across four years.
That seems like a fair rate for a guy who hit 319 triples at a 41.6 percent clip.
There could be casualties if Detroit pays what it costs to keep its premium shooter. Having Dennis Schroder’s Bird rights will make it easier to retain him, but fellow free agent Tim Hardaway Jr. may not be so lucky. Add to that the fact that THJ is somewhat duplicative with Beasley, and it’s not hard to imagine him heading elsewhere.
If the Pistons get especially cheap, they could renounce their rights to Schroder and Hardaway, clearing their cap holds and perhaps opening up enough room to sign Beasley without using an exception. Either way, it doesn’t seem like all three will be back.
-Hughes
Golden State warriors: Jonathan Kuminga Returns
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Jonathan Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors were initially expected to work together on sussing out sign-and-trade scenarios for the 22-year-old restricted free agent. That is not happening.
Base-year-compensation gymnastics complicate any sign-and-trade possibilities unless the Brooklyn Nets are involved. Kuminga will essentially count as only 50 percent of his new salary to the Warriors, yet his next team has to math out deals to account for the full weight of his new price point.
Re-signing him to preserve the asset and salary slot and figuring out the rest later is Golden State’s best bet. This approach gets risky if Kuminga fields a ridiculous offer sheet with an average annual value that could age poorly, but Brooklyn is the lone potential suitor who has the spending power to inflict that kind of discomfort.
That bodes well for the Warriors keeping him at a palatable number, attempting to integrate him into the Jimmy Butler era and then revisiting his fit and market value closer to February’s trade deadline. Now, this scenario gets complicated if Kuminga signs his qualifying offer with the intention of hitting unrestricted free agency in 2026, but even going that route entails him staying put for now.
—Favale
Houston Rockets: Kevin Durant Extends for Less Than His Max
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Kevin Durant is eligible to sign a two-year, $122 million extension after getting traded to the Houston Rockets. That number can climb to $124 million if he waits six months, and he can get a third year if he delays putting pen to paper until the summer of 2026.
Going on 37, Durant will not wait. And he also won’t be signing for the full freight.
Given how meticulously he shaped the trade market for his services, the two-time Finals MVP seems actively aware of how important asset and flexibility retention are for sustained contention. Durant effectively steered his way to Houston while ensuring it didn't have to surrender a whole lot to get him. That forethought will continue in his next deal.
Whether that amounts to taking a two-year extension worth $100 million, $90 million, $80 million or somehow even less remains to be seen. Whatever the number, it won’t be the max. Sure, Durant can’t get it. He just won’t be pushing for it.
—Favale
Indiana Pacers: Despite Haliburton's Injury, They'll Pay the Tax
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Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tear certainly changes a lot for the Indiana Pacers, removing them from the 2025-26 contender class and realigning the team’s sights on the 2026-27 season.
It shouldn’t also trigger a sudden bout of thriftiness.
Myles Turner is a free agent, and much of the discourse over the last few months centered on Indiana’s willingness to pay the tax to keep him. That’s a big deal for a Pacers team that hasn’t put so much as a toe over the tax line in two decades.
Per ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the pain might not be as bad as it seems: “Because of a change in the CBA this offseason, Indiana will pay a less punitive tax penalty if it goes over the cap by $11.4 million or less. For example, a contract that starts at $30 million costs Indiana a $16 million penalty after the roster is filled out.”
With or without Haliburton, the Pacers have to do what they can to keep this core together. If that means paying a little extra to give Turner a contract that pays him what he’s worth, so be it.
-Hughes
Los Angeles Clippers: They will Figure Out How To Keep James Harden and Use Full MLE
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Los Angeles Clippers: The Front Office will Figure Out How To Keep James Harden and Use The Bigger MLE
The Los Angeles Clippers will enter free agency with enough room beneath the first apron to carry cap holds for Nicolas Batum (player option) and Amir Coffey, re-sign James Harden (player option) and spend the entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception worth $14.1 million. Things get trickier, however, if they want to avoid the tax altogether.
Letting Coffey walk seems like a given, and Batum opting in would make the Clippers’ life a lot easier as well. They would be over $13 million below the tax line in this case, provided Harden picks up his $36.3 million player option—not quite the full MLE, but pretty close.
This prediction is basically a bet on Los Angeles paying the tax, shedding more salary than just Coffey or Harden taking a hair cut on next year’s salary. Regardless of how it happens, The Beard will be back, and the Clippers will spend every cent of that $14.1 million on one or more new players.
—Favale
Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James Opts Out, Take Pay Cut and Keeps His No-Trade Clause
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As their cap sheet currently stands, the Los Angeles Lakers will not have more than the $5.7 million mini mid-level exception to spend in free agency. LeBron James is going to help them change that.
Sort of.
LeBron has a $52.6 million player option, and going into his age-41 season, he’s entering a new phase of his career: For the first time ever, his team is no longer operating on his timeline. The Lakers are instead operating within Luka Dončić’s, and as a result, it may not be a given that they let LeBron keep his no-trade clause should he opt out.
Taking less money in another one-plus-one to retain veto power and give Los Angeles more wiggle room beneath the second apron is a good compromise. However much less he accepts is a matter for president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka and Klutch Sports Group to figure out.
If the Lakers’ goal is to access the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, they’ll need LeBron to trim almost $10 million from his player-option number. That seems unlikely. But a more general pay cut absolutely feels in play under the circumstances.
—Favale
Memphis Grizzlies: More Money Gets Dumped to Give Jaren Jackson Jr. A Raise
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My pre-draft bold prediction for the Memphis Grizzlies was that Jaren Jackson Jr. would not have his contract renegotiated-and-extended. This is what they call a walk-back.
Memphis lowered its cap space to beneath $4 million by acquiring No. 11 (Cedric Coward) from the Portland Trail Blazers while sending out No. 16 (Yang Hansen). That won’t be enough to give Jackson a pay bump for next season and then extend him off that number.
The Grizzlies need to create almost $20 million in additional cap space if they want to raise the 25-year-old’s 2025-26 salary to its max of $46.4 million. Or they can hope adding around $13 million to his immediate salary and extending him for a deal worth roughly what his four-year max would be next summer ($228.6 million) gets the job done.
Either way, the team must offload salary to make it all happen. Keep your eyes peeled on the futures of John Konchar, Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brandon Clarke. All of them instantly become salary-dumping candidates if the intent is to renegotiate-and-extend Jackson.
—Favale
Miami Heat: Nikola Jović Will Get at Least $13 Million per Year
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There aren’t many players 6’10” or taller who’ve hit at least 37.0 percent of their threes (minimum 400 attempts) over the last four seasons, and Nikola Jović was one of them.
In fact, he and Chet Holmgren are the only members of the dozen-player club to pull that off in the first three seasons of their careers. Jović brings nothing close to the defensive oomph Holmgren does, but the size-and-shooting combo is highly prized regardless.
That’s why the Miami Heat are going to fork over at least $13 million per year on Jović’s new extension this summer. Though he’s had some durability issues (46 games played each of the last two years), Jović has shown enough to warrant a sizable investment ahead of his potential restricted free agency in 2026.
Miami tends to dream big every offseason, but it won’t make the mistake of letting its grander plans get in the way of spending what it takes to lock down an intriguing 22-year-old with serious offensive upside.
-Hughes
Milwaukee Bucks: A Sixth Straight Season in the Tax
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The current lack of noise regarding a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade suggests the Milwaukee Bucks are going to mostly run it back. One assumes that Antetokounmpo’s continued presence in Milwaukee depends on a commitment from the team to continue pursuing a championship—a task that can’t realistically include a talent drain in free agency.
Pat Connaughton has already picked up his player option, and Bobby Portis will either follow suit or opt out and expect a new contract. Add to that the cost of keeping unrestricted free agent center Brook Lopez, which will almost certainly have to involve an annual salary at least as high as the $14.1 million mid-level exception several other teams could offer him, and the Bucks will have comfortably used up the $23 million in room they had below the tax line.
That’ll mean a sixth consecutive season in the tax, complete with brutal repeater penalties—all for a roster that (earmuffs, Giannis) almost definitely can’t get out of the second round.
-Hughes
Minnesota Timberwolves: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Gets Signed-and-Traded
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Naz Reid will be sticking with the Minnesota Timberwolves after agreeing to decline his player option and re-sign for five years and $125 million. Of the team’s two remaining high-profile free agents, Nickeil Alexander-Walker is by far the biggest flight risk.
Julius Randle has a player option, which offers more flexibility when it comes to hashing out his future. NAW, on the other hand, will hit the open market no matter what. And though it would be a stretch to call him expendable, having Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark gives the Wolves more ways to fill minutes vacated by him than Randle.
Losing the 26-year-old will be a blow—especially if he leaves for nothing. Related: He won’t.
Alexander-Walker won’t have more than the non-taxpayer mid-level of $14.1 million at his disposal unless he’s joining the Brooklyn Nets, who just acquired Terance Mann. Earning more will require NAW to work with Minnesota on a sign-and-trade. And that’s exactly what will happen.
—Favale
New Orleans Pelicans: Herb Jones will Turn Down an Extension
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Herb Jones can sign a three-year extension worth up to $67.6 million this offseason. It is a deal the New Orleans Pelicans should absolutely offer—and one he should unequivocally turn down.
This isn’t necessarily a preamble to trade talks, though it could be. It’s financially driven more than anything else.
The first year of an extension would pay Jones $20.9 million when it kicks in during the 2027-28 season. That is nothing for someone with his defensive skill set, and who has shown plenty of offensive utility, particularly when the three-ball is falling. It is the equivalent of 11.1 percent of the salary cap.
Jones is old enough to consider avoiding free agency altogether. The 2027-28 campaign will be his age-season. But if he prefers to go the extension route, he should at the very least wait until next summer, when he can lock in a four-year, $93.4 million deal, guaranteeing himself an extra $25-plus million worth of security.
—Favale
New York Knicks: Mikal Bridges Won't Sign an Extension
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If only as a leverage play, the allure of 2026 free agency is strong—particularly compared to the limited earning potential of this year’s market. Mikal Bridges has the option to extend his contract this summer for up to four years and $156 million, but the riches that could await a year from now (and the sheer number of additional suitors who could drive up Bridges’ price), will be too tantalizing to resist. In 2026, Bridges could earn $296 million on a new max deal.
The counter here is that Jalen Brunson took less than the max on his last extension, and that all Knicks, especially the Villanova ones, will follow suit. Except…has anyone thought to ask Donte DiVincenzo about the whole “all for one” mentality? He wasn’t in a position to extend his deal, but New York dealt him away to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Karl-Anthony Towns prior to last season.
Loyalty and sacrifice are great, but the NBA is still a business—even if you’ve got Wildcat ties. Bridges is going to treat it like one.
-Hughes
Oklahoma City Thunder: J-Dub and Chet Both Sign Max Extensions without Player Options
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Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are both eligible to sign their rookie extensions this summer and are basically max-contract locks. Their options for the full freight are as follows:
- Four years, $190.5 million
- Five years, $246.6 million
- Five-year max that can climb from $246.6 million to $296 million if they make All-NBA
Debate whether the Oklahoma City Thunder should negotiate as you must. Should they avoid All-NBA-escalator language? Or try to bake in availability protections for Chet Holmgren?
Both will get some version of the max in the end. And as has become increasingly common, the Thunder will be rewarded for locking in their raises one year ahead of restricted free agency by getting each star to pass on the inclusion of a player option.
—Favale
Orlando Magic: Paolo Banchero Won't Get a Player Option
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It’s a foregone conclusion that Paolo Banchero will sign a rookie-scale max extension this summer, one with escalators that could allow him to earn up to 30 percent of the cap if he hits certain criteria. Tyrese Haliburton’s deal is an example; he hit that mark by making an All-NBA team in 2023-24, bumping his pay rate up from 25 percent to 30 percent over the life of the deal.
Like Haliburton, though, Banchero won’t get a player option on the fifth year of his new contract.
For one thing, the Orlando Magic tend to traffic in team-friendly deals. They rarely give player options in the first place and are one of the few organizations that routinely negotiate agreements with team options. That norm (and Haliburton’s recent precedent) will make it easier for the Magic to lock Banchero down for a full five years rather than the four-plus-one structure.
The most persuasive piece of evidence is of the in-house variety. Franz Wagner signed his own max extension last summer, and it was for a straight five years. Banchero is in for the same team-friendly treatment.
-Hughes
Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes Will Beat the MLE
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It’s always dangerous to trust late-season surges like the one Quentin Grimes went on after joining the tanking Philadelhpia 76ers at least year’s trade deadline. Philly’s key players were out of the lineup, and the stakes were low.
Nonetheless, Grimes looked like a borderline star down the stretch, complete with never before seen shot-creation skill. That’ll be enough to earn him a contract offer above the $14.1 mid-level exception.
Maybe that seems foolish with only the Brooklyn Nets toting cap space, and we already said they wouldn’t use their spending power to reel in a costly free agent. But Brooklyn loves to fire off offer sheets, if only to force other teams to match. GM Sean Marks was responsible for doing exactly that in the cases of Allen Crabbe, Otto Porter Jr., Dontatas Motiejunas and Tyler Johnson.
The Sixers might also want to keep Grimes around on a larger number for trade purposes anyway. Add those factors together, and Grimes seems to be in line for an annual salary in the $20-25 million range.
-Hughes
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker Signs His $150 Million Extension
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This is yet another about-face from yours truly. My previous bold prediction for the Phoenix Suns was that Devin Booker would not sign the two-year, $149.8 million extension the team is expected to offer.
If I were him, I still wouldn’t sign it. I’d rather keep the pressure on the team governor Mat Ishbia and new lead executive Brian Gregory to map out a concrete direction. But ESPN’s Brian Windhorst has been banging the “Booker will sign the two-year deal” drum all along. The noise is officially too loud to ignore—and too legitimate to predict the inverse.
Paint me all shades of sheepish. And color the Suns every tint of lucky. They have not done nearly enough to sell the 28-year-old superstar on a reasonable, let alone expedited path back to contention. It won’t come back to bite them this summer.
Next year, though? Who’s to say, really?
—Favale
Portland Trail Blazers: They'll Open Up the Bigger MLE and Sign a High-Level Shooter
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Acquiring Jrue Holiday leaves the Portland Trail Blazers with very little wiggle room beneath the luxury tax. Even if they’re willing to enter it (which they probably aren’t), they currently can’t use the bigger mid-level exception of $14.1 million and stay beneath the first apron.
This cap sheet will change. Portland has a couple of should-be-movable expiring contracts and could, in theory, shave salary off the ledger as part of a Jerami Grant trade. Trading Robert Williams III’s $13.3 million salary into another team’s non-taxpayer mid-level exception feels like the easiest and cleanest way of drumming up enough tax space to burn the entire $14.1 million MLE.
Once the Blazers jimmy up the required financial runway, they will spend it on a high level shooter. They needed at least one in the first place. That urgency has reached Defcon 1 following Anfernee Simons’ departure.
Portland’s non-Simons players combined to place in the 7th percentile of catch-and-shoot three-point marksmanship and in the 8th percentile of overall long-range shooting, according to BBall-Index. Landing Holiday announced to the league that these Blazers are trying to be ultra-competitive next year. They’ll need to add a bonafide long-distance bucket to actualize that vision.
–Favale
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murrays Gets $30M+ Per Year in an Extension
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Keegan Murray is eligible for a rookie-scale extension this summer that can pay him up to $190.5 million over four years or $246.7 million over five years. He shouldn't get the max, but he's going to get puh-aid.
Jaden McDaniels (five years, $131 million) and Trey Murphy III (four years, $112 million) will be popular starting-point comps. Murray will secure noticeably more.
Going on 25, he may not carry the traditional upside of someone in his position. But the Sacramento Kings' pecking order has turned over multiple times since Murray arrived. He hasn't exactly been given the offensive agency to explore and grow.
Plus, for as much as his three-point clip has dipped the past two years, Murray is still converting over 37 percent of his triples on more than six attempts per game. LaMelo Ball and Duncan Robinson are the only other players to hit those thresholds through their first three seasons.
Bake in his defensive growth year-over-year, along with Sacramento's desperate need for some semblance of stability, and Murray has both the skill set and leverage necessary to eclipse the $30-million-per-year benchmark.
—Favale
San Antonio Spurs: De’Aaron Fox Signs an Extension for Less Than the Max
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Beginning on Aug. 3, De’Aaron Fox will be eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million max extension that keeps him on the San Antonio Spurs’ books through 2029-30. This is almost assuredly a contract the team is prepared to bankroll. The Spurs don’t trade for him if it’s not.
Ending up with the No. 2 pick and Dylan Harper may not have been part of the plan, but that’s more likely to impact their longer-term valuation of Fox than their immediate one. And at this moment, he is a max or near-max caliber player.
San Antonio can get away with paying him like one through his age-32 season. A four-year extension essentially takes him through the heart of his prime.
Still, Fox’s determination to join the Spurs looms large here. “There was no f*cking list," he told ESPN’s Michael Wright in March. "There was one team. I wanted to go to San Antonio.”
Now that he’s there, he’ll double-down on that commitment by taking less than $229 million—either because he recognizes a loss of leverage with Harper inbound, or because he wants to be an active facilitator of the Spurs continuing to take big swings on the trade market as they seek to flesh out a title contender around himself and Victor Wembanyama.
—Favale
Toronto Raptors: Ochai Agbaji Will Get a $50 Million Extension
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The Toronto Raptors are short on three-point shooting and lockdown wing defense, and Ochai Agbaji provides both. That’s why he’ll get a rookie extension this summer, eliminating restricted free agency in 2026 and assuring Toronto will have its three-and-D weapon under contract for whatever its next era looks like.
Whether the Raps cobble together a star-level trade or not, Agbaji is going to have value to the team. If anything, the former No. 14 pick might balk at an offer that’ll pay him less than the mid-level exception. But we shouldn’t forget that Agbaji came perilously close to slipping out of the NBA entirely. After struggling to prove himself offensively in his first year-and-a-half with the Utah Jazz, he was essentially flipped for a 2024 first-round pick.
Any time a player changes teams as a trade throw-in that early in his career, it’s not a great sign. Utah basically decided it would rather take its chances on a future selection than continue with one it had made a little over a year prior.
Having been through that and emerged as a valuable rotation piece last season, Agbaji should want to capitalize by securing life-changing money at his first opportunity. Three years and $50 million will take care of that.
-Hughes
Utah Jazz: Walker Kessler will Not Get an Extension
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Walker Kessler is the closest young player the Utah Jazz have to a primary cornerstone—unless, of course, you're counting Ace Bailey, in which case the 23-year-old enters runner-up territory. This would seem to increase the likelihood that he signs an extension entering his fourth season.
He won't.
Utah remains too much of a to-be-determined entity. Now is not the time to reinvest in...anyone.
Sure, if Kessler's willing to sign a ridiculously team-friendly deal—say four years and $60 million—it changes the calculus. But undercutting himself when bigs like Nicolas Claxton and Naz Reid are averaging $25 million per year doesn't feel especially likely.
Failing a discount of surprising proportions, the Jazz will prefer to keep their optionality. Kessler is easier to trade if he doesn't sign an extension, and if the plan is to retain him, they can just let the restricted free-agency market set his price tag next summer.
—Favale
Washington Wizards: They'll Create Free Agents
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It feels a little on-the-nose to say the Washington Wizards will concoct free agents out of thin air, but some of their recent transactions put that option in play. Though actual magic will disappointingly not be involved, the Wizards seem likely to send at least one player into the market via a buyout.
That’s unlikely to happen until later in the season, and it’s possible buyouts won’t be necessary if Washington can find takers for the expiring salaries of Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart or CJ McCollum. That path has less appeal now that we’ve seen the Wizards’ apparent prioritization of 2026 cap space. The deal that sent out Jordan Poole fo McCollum now looks like part of a plan to clear tons of room for some serious spending next offseason, lowering the odds of trades that bring back longer-term bad money with picks attached.
The Wizards have operated wisely since ending the Bradley Beal era, so they’ll surely be opportunistic and flexible. But if teams aren’t lining up to trade for their veteran expiring deals, money-saving buyouts could be the best option.
-Hughes
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