Bold Offseason Predictions for Every Team After 2025 NBA Finals
The NBA Finals are officially done, and though the Oklahoma City Thunder are free to continue bathing in champagne, the chaos agents in all of us know it’s time to start looking ahead to what’s next—while stepping out on a limb, of course.
Our standard bold-prediction approach applies: These crystal-ball gazings are not meant to be deliberately stupid. We are trying to straddle that line between overtly safe and completely irresponsible.
Like usual, not all of these will be hits. But some of them, even many of them, could be. And in the event they are, do you really want to go through the rest of your life knowing you could have peered into parts of the future here first and ultimately didn’t? Of course not.
So, onward you go.
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young Signs Extension for Less Than the Max
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Trae Young is eligible to sign a four-year, $228.6 million extension this summer, and given the Atlanta Hawks' lack of control over their first-rounders through 2027, there's a case for them to just offer him the full boat and move on.
Yet, this offseason feels like it will be a referendum on how teams pay players who aren't universally considered top-15 or -20 stars. Young falls squarely on the fringes of that range—someone who could get the max but no longer seems like a lock to do so.
Atlanta could risk alienating the 26-year-old by dangling fewer years and a lower annual salary. That can't be the primary concern.
If Young thinks he can get more in 2026 free agency (player option), he can reject the extension, and the Hawks can recalibrate from there. But without a clear-cut landing spot for him, either via trade or in next summer's open market, his leverage is limited in negotiations. He and Atlanta will find common ground that is south of the max.
Boston Celtics: One of Jaylen Brown or Derrick White Gets Traded
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Jayson Tatum's ruptured right Achilles has everyone bracing for the Boston Celtics to slash costs in the face of a salary-plus-tax bill that climbs past $500 million.
Unrestricted free agent Al Horford along with Sam Hauser, Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday are the names most commonly identified as possible collateral damage.
Boston's financial gymnastics will go beyond them, impacting at least one of Jaylen Brown and Derrick White.
Hauser, Holiday and Porziņģis all have limited standalone value. The latter two might even be net negatives on their current deals. The Celtics aren't meaningfully reworking their cap sheet—which has them more than $20 million into the second apron and $40 million-plus into the tax—by rerouting some combination of them alone.
Brown and White will generate the most interest, and by extension, the most possible savings. Moving one of them feels nuclear, but remember, this isn’t just about a single gap year.
Boston won't know what Tatum looks like until 2026-27 tips off. That makes this more of a two-season interregnum, which increases the chances and appeal of stomaching more wholesale changes.
Brooklyn Nets: They Will Trade for At Least 3 Future 1st-Round Picks
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Not only are the Brooklyn Nets the only team projected to have cap space this summer, but they are also sitting on choose-own-adventure flexibility.
Depending on how they feel about their own free agents, including Cam Thomas (restricted), they can carve out nearly $80 million of room without salary-dumping Cam Johnson or Nicolas Claxton.
This spending power rings hollow when viewed exclusively through 2026 free agency. The list of available players isn't particularly intriguing, and the Nets aren't talented enough to consider accelerating their position inside the competitive landscape.
Cap space isn't just for free agency, though. It can be used to facilitate trades. That has serious value this offseason, when a handful of superstars could be on the move, and when so many teams are navigating the first and second aprons.
Brooklyn is uniquely equipped to set the asking price for transactional helping hands.
When all is said and done, even if it requires unloading some assets of their own, the Nets will add at least three future first-rounders to their growing stable of picks.
Charlotte Hornets: Front Office Swings Big on a Frontline Addition
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Miles Bridges and Tidjane Salaün were the Charlotte Hornets' most used 4s last season. Grant Williams would have entered the chat as well if not for his right ACL injury. That trio, even at its best, doesn't provide a ton of size or on-ball skill.
Charlotte's center ranks, meanwhile, are wildly unsettled. Not one of Mark Williams, Jusuf Nurkić or Moussa Diabaté currently profiles as the long-term answer in the middle.
At least one of the 4-5 slots will look dramatically different next season. This isn't to say the Hornets will go all-in for Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Jeff Peterson-led front office is more deliberate than impulsive.
But whether it's swinging big at No. 4 (Khaman Maluach?), taking a flier in free agency (Jonathan Kuminga, Naz Reid or Santi Aldama sign-and-trades?) or poking around the semi-but-not-too-ambitious trade market (Deandre Ayton? Mitchell Robinson? Kristaps Porziņģis? Nic Claxton? Wendell Carter Jr.?), Charlotte will make a splashy addition to its frontline.
Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey Will Average Over $30 million Per Year in New Deal
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Josh Giddey is apparently seeking a five-year deal from the Chicago Bulls in restricted free agency that cracks $30 million per season, according to Marc Stein of The Stein Line.
That isn't a total you'd expect a floor general with significant limitations at both ends of the court to clear, particularly when the offseason landscape is devoid of cap space.
He will get it, though. And then some.
Chicago has already shown it can't be trusted to avoid negotiating against itself. (See: Last summer's Patrick Williams contract.) Now, in the Bulls' defense, they have some free-agency hits in their rear view, including Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu and Jalen Smith. They are not incapable of winning these talks.
That's damning with faint praise. Giddey is coming off a season in which he shot a career high from three and contributed to an at-times electric offense. The Bulls won't be able to help themselves. They won't go all-out (his max salary in Year 1 is $38.7 million), but they will reward him in a way that's big and lucrative—and most likely going to age poorly.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Ty Jerome Stays Put
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Re-signing your own free agent is seldom considered bold. This situation is different.
As an Early Bird free agent, Ty Jerome's max deal from the Cleveland Cavaliers tops out around four years and $64 million. That should be enough to lock him down. But the Cavs actually have to offer it. That's not a guarantee.
Cleveland enters the offseason more than $13 million into the second apron. Giving Jerome that contract leaves the team nearly $30 million over it while costing an additional $80 million in luxury-tax payments, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks.
This may seem like overkill to the C-Suite. Then again, the Cavs are a contender. Maybe team governor Dan Gilbert takes the one-year hit. Even if he doesn't, Darius Garland is expected to miss the start of next season following big toe surgery. That increases the importance of bringing back Jerome—even if it requires offloading other salary.
Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Davis Will Finish 2025-26 on a Different Team
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Anthony Davis fits the "Defense over everything" ideology revered by Dallas Mavericks president of basketball operations Nico Harrison. He no longer fits the long-term direction of the organization.
Winning the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes materially changes the Mavs' arc. He isn't some add-on you attempt to integrate. He is the cornerstone around whom you build out everything and everyone else.
Plopping him into Dallas' (admittedly talented and deep) rotation and expecting him to develop while the team pursues fringe contention is unrealistic. It is even more unrealistic knowing Kyrie Irving (player option) is recovering from late-March surgery on his left ACL and that the offense has no primary initiator until he returns.
The Mavs may not care to admit it just yet, but Flagg and their surrounding circumstances have thrust them into a different timeline—one that no longer jibes with the 32-year-old Davis' own.
If the trade rumors don't start buzzing over the summer, they will begin in earnest prior to February's deadline.
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokić will NOT Sign an Extension
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Nikola Jokić can sign a three-year, $212.5 million extension this summer that keeps him on the Denver Nuggets' books through 2029-30. If the past is any indication, he will sign it without much pomp or circumstance and continue going about his business of world domination.
Yet, exceptional times call for exceptional measures. Jokić noted Denver's lack of depth after its playoff exit, only for managing governor Josh Kroenke to extol the benefits of running it back. That is unacceptable.
In fairness, the Nuggets are not working with many resources. They can trade just one first-round pick this summer and won't have more than the mini mid-level exception of $5.7 million to spend in free agency. That isn't Jokic's problem. This team should be working its butt off to improve around the best player in the world. The past two offseasons have seen them do the exact opposite.
Jokić can take control of the situation by passing on the extension. Few consider him a future flight risk, and he stands to guarantee himself more money by waiting. But rejecting the deal puts implicit pressure on Denver to avoid complacency.
And while the Nuggets shouldn't need that type of reality check, they apparently can't be trusted to do right by their megastar without it.
Detroit Pistons: Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey Won't Get Extensions
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On the heels of a breakout 2024-25 campaign, the Detroit Pistons could look to keep the good vibes rolling by extending two of their most important youngsters.
But they won't.
This is to some extent about the hazy values of both Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey.
The former still has some defensive question marks, and the latter's promising start to 2024-25 was derailed by a fractured fibula in his left leg. Is Duren the right guy to have on the backline? Is Ivey the second ball-handler Detroit wants alongside Cade Cunningham? These questions remain.
Waiting allows the Pistons to keep looking for definitive answers before making longer-term calls in restricted free agency. More than that, it preserves their flexibility.
Detroit can chisel out more than $30 million of cap space in 2026, when the free-agency landscape will be frothier. That number stands to mushroom if one or both of Duren ($19.4 million) or Ivey ($30.3 million) sign a new deal worth less than their initial holds—or if the team renounces their rights entirely.
The Pistons are good enough to start dreaming big. And that begins with prioritizing flexibility.
Golden State Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga Signs His Qualifying Offer
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My confidence meter on this one isn't especially high. But we haven't seen a marquee restricted free agent with a case to sign his qualifying offer for purely basketball reasons since Greg Monroe...in 2014. (Miles Bridges signed his qualifying offer in 2023, but he missed the entire prior season after being charged with felony domestic violence, to which he pleaded no contest.)
Preserving Kuminga as an asset is the Golden State Warriors' top priority. That demands they broker a sign-and-trade or keep him, perhaps with the intent to flip him later. But the Base Year Compensation rule complicates any sign-and-trade that doesn't send him to the Brooklyn Nets, and the Warriors must be careful not to offer him a deal that ages into a net-negative.
Squeezing Kuminga is totally in play for Golden State. The Nets are the lone team that can offer him more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million, and most don't expect them to do so, per The Athletic's Anthony Slater.
At the same time, Slater also noted Kuminga continues to fancy himself a future All-Star. If the 22-year-old has that much confidence in his abilities, he can sign his qualifying offer, play out next season with the right to veto any trade and then hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent in 2026, when more teams are projected to have cap space.
Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard Will Get Chance to Fill Holes on Offense
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The Houston Rockets are fresh off stealing Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns, delivering the big swing that just about everyone wanted them to make. But they continue to need another half-court ball-handling option. KD is a huge offensive upgrade. He isn't someone who will run the show, and Houston sent out Jalen Green as part of the package that landed him.
This summer's free-agency market isn't conducive to solving the problem with whatever version of the mid-level exception the Rockets wind up wielding. And while they have the assets to pull off another big trade, the KD acquisition figures to be the highlight of their offseason.
Enter Reed Sheppard.
Houston's recent track record suggests it's more likely to give the sophomore an extended look before turning outward. Durant's arrival flies in the face of that, but at the same time, the Rockets picked him up without moving any of their rookie-scale prospects.
Though it feels a little counterintuitive to say, Houston hitting the gas pedal on its timeline may actually be a vote of confidence in Sheppard. Otherwise, you'd think the primary acquisition would tilt toward more of a floor general.
Indiana Pacers: They Will Pay the Luxury Tax for First Time Since 2005
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Leading into Game 2 of the NBA Finals, ESPN's Shams Charania reported the Indiana Pacers will enter the luxury tax this offseason in order to re-sign Myles Turner.
There is an element of "Believe it when you see it" here. Indiana hasn't paid the tax since 2005.
Of course, it’s a lot easier to break the bank when you’re coming off an NBA Finals appearance, and when Turner remains indispensable to the product thanks to his floor-spacing, budding ability to punish mismatches and overall defense.
On the flip side, Tyrese Haliburton's Game 7 injury could compel the Pacers to consider a gap year, depending on its severity. This is a bet on them looking to remain relevant until he returns.
Indiana could still offload other salaries to entirely skirt the tax. But any semblance of continuity requires paying it.
The Pacers are just inside $20 million of the tax, and that does not include filling out the roster with another couple of bodies or a new deal for Turner—who, after making $19.9 million this season, seems poised to eat up that space, and then some.
Los Angeles Clippers: Malcolm Brogdon Joins the Party...For Real This Time
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Malcolm Brogdon was nearly sent to the Los Angeles Clippers in the summer of 2023, only for them to scuttle the deal with the Boston Celtics amid injury concerns. He will join them for real this summer.
The Clippers have a clear need for another ball-handler who can lighten James Harden's workload, as well as for another shooter who can space the court. Brogdon checks both boxes, even if he's not your traditional floor general, as someone who can both play alongside and independent of The Beard.
Acquiring him this time around won't be so complicated. The Clippers will have more than $20 million in wiggle room beneath the first apron if Harden picks up his player option. That runway will lengthen if they waive Drew Eubanks.
Even if they have to give Harden a pay bump, the Clippers should have the ability to access most or all of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million. That's more than enough to put them in play for Brogdon.
And if they're looking to conserve that tool, they can always engage the Washington Wizards in sign-and-trade scenarios.
Los Angeles Lakers: Will Trade for Center Who Has Already Played with Luka
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Everybody knows the Los Angeles Lakers need centers. Plural. The mini mid-level exception of $5.7 million might get them one, but a bigger splash will require taking to the trade market, where they can dangle Dalton Knecht, short-term salary, one first-round pick (2031) and up to four swaps (2026, 2028, 2030, 2032).
This inevitable search will lead them to someone alongside whom Luka Dončić has already played. Don't ask me who, specifically. But it will be one of Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II or Kristaps Porziņģis. It probably won't be Dwight Powell (player option).
Lively would be ideal and probably cost the Lakers' top-shelf offer. Gafford isn't perfect from a defensive standpoint, but he's a solid vertical threat and rim protector. Whether the Dallas Mavericks will ever conduct business with Los Angeles again is a separate matter.
Porziņģis and Dončić never quite figured it out during their time together in Dallas. But the former is at a different point in his career and has already noted he holds no ill will towards his former teammate.
With the Boston Celtics almost definitely looking to shed salary this summer, he could prove to be the most gettable of three.
Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr. Will Pass On a Renegotiate-and-Extend
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After missing out on All-NBA honors and the supermax eligibility that comes with it, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a renegotiate-and-extend candidate.
Going this route consists of the Memphis Grizzlies using their projected $4.5 million in cap space to bump up his 2025-26 salary to around $28 million and then extending him off that number for four years and around $175.6 million.
Except, are we sure that's enough?
Jackson's max deal with the Grizzlies next summer, as an unrestricted free agent, would be worth an estimated $228.6 million over four years or $296 million over five years. They don't have to offer the full boat, of course, but there will be enough cap space floating around for the one-time Defensive Player of the Year to have leverage. Some team will come in with its own max offer of four years and $219.4 million.
How Memphis handles this decision will be fascinating. It could clear even more cap space now to increase the renegotiate-and-extend offer, simply wait to pony up in free agency or even look to trade him.
Whatever the end result, it won't be Jackson signing a four-year, $175 million-ish deal as part of a renegotiate-and-extend when he has the ability—and power—to get more.
Miami Heat: Next Season Will be Deliberate Gap Year
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Despite continued links to just about every potentially available big name, the Miami Heat will instead embrace the concept—and payoff—of a gap year.
This is the right move. It may also be wishful thinking. Team president Pat Riley recently reiterated his "We don't tank" stance. But the Heat have bottomed out on two occasions under his watch. One ended with them drafting Dwyane Wade. The other resulted in Michael Beasley, a cautionary tale now, but a consensus top prospect back then.
Miami controls its own first-round pick next year before owing a lottery-protected first to Charlotte in 2027 that becomes unprotected the following year if it doesn't convey. Capitalizing on this short window to prioritize experimentation, development, fliers, bookkeeping and the acquisition of a high lottery pick is too good to pass up.
It gets even rosier knowing the Heat can have $30 million-plus in cap space next summer. That number will climb higher if Andrew Wiggins declines his player option or is shipped in favor of expiring money.
Granted, free agency isn't a place for fireworks anymore. But cap space is hyper-useful in trades. And if the Heat enter next summer with another lottery pick and a bunch of financial flexibility dotting Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Kel'el Ware, they'll be in prime position to strike.
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo Will Request a Trade
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NBA insider Jake Fischer reported during a Bleacher Report live stream that "there is not a lot of belief right now at this juncture" that Giannis Antetokounmpo will request a trade from the Milwaukee Bucks.
This seems like a safe bet. Giannis wants to help Milwaukee back to the Finals, and the Bucks are attempting to sell him on a gap year while Damian Lillard recovers from an Achilles injury, according to Marc Stein of The Stein Line.
But what does a gap year actually consist of when you don't control the rights to your own first-rounder again until 2031 and you don't have any blue-chip youngsters to develop? Something doesn't add up here.
Giannis will see it, too. His window to win is now, and even in a wide-open Eastern Conference, the Bucks have neither the trade assets nor cap flexibility to successfully sell him on the idea of sustainable contention.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Two of Gobert, Naz, NAW and Randle Will be on New Teams
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Turnover seems inevitable for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Even if Naz Reid ($15 million) and Julius Randle ($30.4 million) pick up their player options, the cap sheet will sit inside the first apron. That’s without a new deal for unrestricted free agent Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
The latter is widely considered #AlreadyGone as a result. That might be true. But the shuffling won't stop there.
Either Reid or Randle could still hit the open market. Failing that, and more likely, they could be trade candidates if they don't.
Granted, a trade seems less likely with Kevin Durant off the board. But the Wolves could be in the market for other deals.
Randle, in particular, will become a talking point if he opts in. Expiring contracts around $30 million open a ton of trade doors. Don't sleep on Rudy Gobert's inclusion, either. He retains his Defensive Player of the Year mystique, but his offensive limitations can get him played off the floor.
Regardless of how it happens, when the offseason dust settles, two of Gobert, NAW, Reid and Randle will be on new squads.
New Orleans Pelicans: Herb Jones Gets Flipped by the 2026 Trade Deadline
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Are the New Orleans Pelicans rebuilding? Taking a(nother) gap year? Prepared to try accelerating their position in the Western Conference, even with Dejounte Murray slated to miss a chunk of the 2025-26 season following a right Achilles injury?
I'm genuinely asking here—not for a friend, but for me.
Lack of clarity in mind, the Pelicans will wind up moving Herb Jones no matter what. They aren't on track to go anywhere special next season and must begin to reconcile the end of his current contract.
Jones isn't slated for free agency until 2027, but they can offer him an extension that pays him $20.9 million in Year 1. Depending on the Pelicans' direction, that could be too steep. It may also not be steep enough for Jones to sign on the dotted line, whether it's this summer or next.
Couple this with a larger organizational existential crisis, and New Orleans feels fated to explore the trade value of the 26-year-old before he inches much closer to the final season of his deal.
New York Knicks: At Least 1 Starter from Last Season Will Get Traded
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Firing Tom Thibodeau suggests the New York Knicks' primary decision-makers—whoever they are at this point—believe the roster is largely set, and that it won't be hard to find an upgrade. But anyone who watched this team understands it has problems that extend beyond coaching.
New York's most-used starting five of Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart will suffer the consequences. And it won't just be a matter of Mitchell Robinson entering the fivesome in place of Hart. (Yes, I know Robinson finished the postseason as a starter.)
The Knicks need to deepen their rotation and won't have more than the mini mid-level exception of $5.7 million to spend. Even without any outright first-rounders to dangle, trades are the vehicle through which they will extend their rotation. That requires sending out matching money of consequence—more than reserves like Deuce McBride ($4.3 million) or even Robinson ($13 million) make.
Brunson and Anunoby clearly seem off-limits. The other three? Not so much.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet and J-Dub Sign Max Extensions Without Player Options
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Rookie-scale extensions that don't include player options in the final season aren't uncommon. Forfeiting them is considered a trade-off from the player to lock in long-term security prior to restricted free agency.
Still, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams have the cache to push for maxes that include player options. They won't get them.
Whether it's because they don't ask for them or the Oklahoma City Thunder won't offer them doesn't particularly matter. This championship core isn't going anywhere anytime soon, at least by NBA standards.
The end result of extension talks with Chet and J-Dub—who can sign for five years and $246.7 million apiece—will only reinforce as much.
Orlando Magic: Tyus Jones (Finally) Joins the Party
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One longtime Orlando Magic target is now out of the question, so we pivot to another. Florida native Anfernee Simons is presumably off the radar after they cashed in four first-round picks and one swap to get Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies.
Anyone who habitually builds trades and hypotheticals that land shot-makers and game managers in Orlando needn't worry, though. Tyus Jones, another longtime favorite for the Magic among armchair general managers, is an unrestricted free agent.
Coming off a season in which he played on the veteran's minimum for the sad-sack Phoenix Suns, the 29-year-old will be looking for a raise. Orlando can afford to give him.
Declining Mo Wagner's $11 million team option would leave the Magic with enough room under the first apron to use all or part of the non-taxpayer's mid-level exception ($14.1 million). That should be more than enough to bring Jones' assist-to-turnover heroics to the Sunshine State.
Philadelphia 76ers: The No. 3 Pick Will be Traded
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Reports of the Philadelphia 76ers being open to flipping the No. 3 pick are apparently overblown, according to Marc Stein of the The Stein Line. But 'tis the season for smoke and mirrors.
Let's make one thing clear: Trading the No. 3 pick—which amounts to getting Ace Bailey or V.J. Edgecombe, it seems—for another star or the rough equivalent without knowing what Joel Embiid will look like returning from yet another knee issue ranges from risky to reckless. That's not the only trade scenario potentially on the table, though.
Philly could look to move down while landing a rotation player in the process. Or it could move down while recouping other draft assets for future trades. It could try attaching No. 3 to Paul George in hopes of landing a package that balances present and future while shaving off long-term salary. Hell, it could trade up. And yes, it could go the nuclear-shortsighted route, cobbling together No. 3 and PG in a package for someone like Jaren Jackson Jr. or Jaylen Brown.
None of these hypotheticals are endorsements. Keeping the pick or looking to move down is probably the safest bet. But the urgency of the Sixers' window puts more seismic outcomes in play, too—assuming, of course, said window is even open.
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker Does Not Sign an Extension
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Devin Booker is eligible to sign a two-year, $149.8 million extension this summer that keeps him with the Phoenix Suns through the 2029-30 season. His involvement in the head coaching search that led to the hiring of Jordan Ott suggests he's gearing up to stay put for the long haul and going to sign it.
He won't.
Or at least, he shouldn't.
Shipping Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets has clarified very little about the Suns' future. They re-acquired their own 2025 first-rounder (No. 10) but don't control another one of their firsts until 2032. They don't have any imminent financial flexibility. Their asset well is closer to bone dry than the stocked. They have more shooting guards than should be illegally allowed.
So on and so forth. Booker has no business tethering himself to an organization that seems to have no idea what it's doing.
Rejecting the extension doesn't have to portend a trade request. He can sign for more money and years next summer, and more importantly, passing on the deal now keeps pressure on Phoenix's decision-makers to, you know, start making better decisions.
Portland Trail Blazers: Multiple 1st-Rounders Get Shipped Out for a Swanky Upgrade
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Reading too much into last year's midseason ascent is among the most dangerous things the Portland Trail Blazers can do. Prematurely hitting the turbo button can set franchises back by a number of years.
General manager Joe Cronin has shown he knows how to straddle that fence. The Deni Avdija acquisition cost Malcolm Brogdon, two firsts (one of which became Bub Carrington) and two seconds and was considered controversial at the time. It looks like a damn good move now.
Expect the Blazers to seek out similar middle ground this summer. They need shooting, extra initiation and more shooting to complement a defense that ranked inside the top five for basically half the year, and they've got the tools to get it.
Dangling the No. 11 selection is in play. The terms on the pick owed to Chicago (lottery protected through 2028) make dealing another first somewhat complicated, but not impossible. Portland also has swap rights on three Milwaukee firsts from 2028 through 2030 to pique the attention of trade partners along with plenty of matching-salary candidates.
Sacramento Kings: Keegan Murray Gets $30 Million Per Year in an Extension
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Keegan Murray is eligible for a rookie-scale extension this summer that can pay him up to $190.5 million over four years or $246.7 million over five years. He shouldn't get the max, but he's going to get puh-aid.
Jaden McDaniels (five years, $131 million) and Trey Murphy III (four years, $112 million) will be popular starting-point comps. Murray will secure noticeably more.
Going on 25, he may not carry the traditional upside of someone in his position. But the Sacramento Kings' pecking order has turned over multiple times since Murray arrived. He hasn't exactly been given the offensive agency to explore and grow.
Plus, for as much as his three-point clip has dipped the past two years, Murray is still converting over 37 percent of his triples on more than six attempts per game. LaMelo Ball and Duncan Robinson are the only other players to hit those thresholds through their first three seasons.
Bake in his defensive growth year-over-year, along with Sacramento's desperate need for some semblance of stability, and Murray has both the skill set and leverage necessary to eclipse the $30-million-per-year benchmark.
San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox Extends for Less Than the Max
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De'Aaron Fox can sign a four-year, $229.3 million extension beginning on Aug. 3. The San Antonio Spurs are definitely going to offer him a deal. And he is definitely going to sign a deal.
It just won't be a max deal.
This isn't meant to be a referendum on Fox. The Era of Aprons seems destined to place the bar higher for max candidates, but the Spurs are at least a couple of years away from any sort of financial crunch. Victor Wembanyama will not start his post-rookie deal until 2027-28.
But these next two years will go by in a flash, and San Antonio has other contracts to map out. Stephon Castle's next deal will kick in the year after Wemby's take effect. Devin Vassell will be on the books for another two seasons at that point. And everyone expects the Spurs to make at least one other big-time swing before then. It could even happen this summer.
Getting out in front of tricky finances goes a long way, and Fox really wants to be in San Antonio. "There was no f--king list," he told ESPN's Michael C Wright of his trade from Sacramento. "There was one team. I wanted to go to San Antonio." This exclusive desire will lead both Fox and the Spurs to work out a discounted deal that keeps him in silver and black and ensures plenty of organizational malleability moving forward.
Toronto Raptors: Two of Their Top 5 Most Used Players from Last Year Get Traded
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The Toronto Raptors' biggest offseason needs are pretty straightforward. They must surround their surfeit of on-ball creators—Ingram, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley—with more deadeye shooting. Tighter rim protection, and more broadly speaking, another big who runs in contrast to the more earthly-bound Jakob Poeltl should be near the top of the list as well.
For their part, the Raptors seem ready to be aggressive. During a Bleacher Report Livestream, NBA Insider Jake Fischer noted that they are "canvassing the league" for more opportunities like the Brandon Ingram trade. This search could encompass a wide range of players, from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jaylen Brown, to Coby White and Derrick White, to Kristaps Porziņģis and Dereck Lively II and so on.
Pulling off any deal that lands a projected member of the (preferred) crunch-time unit will require knifing into the top of last year's rotation to both match salaries and provide value beyond draft equity. Barnes, Barrett, Ochai Agbaji, Poeltl and Gradey Dick finished 2024-25 as Toronto's top-five most-used players. Of that group, only Barnes feels untouchable, and even that could change if Antetokounmpo is in play.
If the Raptors are serious about making another mid- to top-tier acquisition, at least two of the fivesome will be on the move. And depending on the target, we shouldn't rule out the No. 9 pick being dispatched along with them.
Utah Jazz: They will Sell High on Walker Kessler
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Freshly installed Utah Jazz president of basketball operations Austin Ainge is decidedly anti-tank. Dealing Walker Kessler would seem to run in opposition to that moral compass.
Except not tanking in the Western Conference looks a lot like going about your business as usual. The Jazz aren't nearly close enough to contention for them to aggressively consolidate, and Kessler is someone more valuable to a team that needs a finishing touch rather than a cornerstone.
Extending the 23-year-old is absolutely on the table. Despite Utah's overall struggles, he has shown that he can act as the base of an interior defense, and his offensive utility may stretch beyond traditional big-man means if you buy into his 54 percent clip from floater range and three-point exploration. But this is all precisely why they may be able to get a tiny ransom for his services.
Do the Los Angeles Lakers offer the Mark Williams Special (Dalton Knecht, 2031 first-round pick and a swap in 2030 and/or 2032)? Could the Jazz finagle another lottery pick from the Toronto Raptors (No. 9)? Or, along with other stuff, from the Chicago Bulls (No. 12)?
Utah should be able to net the equivalent of two firsts (or more for Kessler). It isn't obligated to do so, but its ambiguous trajectory will coax the front office into thinking even longer term.
Washington Wizards: They will Trade into the Top 4 of the Draft
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Teams in the early stages of the rebuilding process can be hesitant to consolidate assets and move up the draft ladder. The Washington Wizards know no such reticence.
General manager Will Dawkins has swung trades to slide up the board in each of his first two drafts on the job. That trend will continue this year.
This could entail dangling No. 18, No. 40 and other modest sweeteners to climb into the back end of the lottery. But that's less fun than predicting the Wizards identify The Guy and move from No. 6 into the top four.
Figuring out the required compensation is a job for another day. The overall opportunity should be there. The Philadelphia 76ers (No. 3) and San Antonio Spurs (No. 2) are on more immediate timelines, and the Charlotte Hornets (No. 4) should have the runway to trade down if they're itching to select a big.
Dan Favale is a National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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