Bold Predictions for the Rest of the 2024-25 NBA Season

Both the NBA trade deadline and All-Star break are officially in our rear views. And you know what that means:

It's stretch-run time.

Like usual, there is no better way to commemorate entry into a new phase of the NBA regular season than with a piping-hot batch of bold predictions. The goal, as always, is to straddle the line between spicy and unhinged.

These crystal-ball gazings are not here just to be here. They are prognostications that yours truly actually believes, but this conviction is layered with measured skepticism, presented with an air of caution and, by my own estimation, deviates from prevailing defaults and consensus.

Postseason series outcomes (i.e. "The Chicago Bulls will win the 2025 NBA Finals") are the only subject matter considered off-limits. We will holster those for another time. Regular-season happenings are the focus here, with potential year-end award winners and the actual playoff picture among the fair-game topics.

Two Memphis Grizzlies Make All-Rookie 1st Team

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Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells are turning in two of the most impressive rookie campaigns among their draft class. Party poopers will note this isn't necessarily saying much. But this is far from a default when momentum suggests three of the five spots will go to Stephon Castle, Kel'el Ware and Alex Sarr.

Plus, generally speaking, one team seldom gets two first-team All-Rookie members. Here is every instance since 1999-00:

• 2019-20: Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke, Memphis Grizzlies
• 2016-17: Joel Embiid and Dario Šarić, Philadelphia 76ers
• 2007-08: Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, Seattle Supersonics
• 2006-07: LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers
• 2004-05: Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls
• 2001-02: Pau Gasol and Shane Battier, Memphis Grizzlies

Six times over the past quarter-century—and just twice over the past 15 years—isn't a whole lot. Shout-out to Memphis' newbies for making up one third of this list already, though.

Of the Grizzlies' two candidates, Edey feels like a slightly larger reach. Wells' combination of court time and defensive workload renders him a shoo-in. And while Edey's impact as a screener, rim protector, rebounder, finisher and even occasional spacer is undeniable, he may not finish in the top 15 of total minutes among rookies.

Oklahoma City Finishes with a Top-10 Defense of All Time

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Faithful scrollers might recall we overreacted to the start of the Oklahoma City Thunder's season by penciling them into the greatest-defense-of-all-time conversation. Nearly four months later, the goalpost is moving—but not by much.

Era-adjusted defensive rating is the best way to contextualize Oklahoma City's performance at the less glamorous end. It is calculated using a team's single-season defensive rating, dividing it by the league average and then multiplying it by 100.

The Thunder's era-adjusted defensive rating sits at 108.16 coming out of the All-Star break. That would be good enough for 11th all-time, ahead of the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons (107.86) and just behind the 1993-94 New York Knicks (108.25).

Jumping a spot or two doesn't seem like much. But it can be. Especially this time of year. Oklahoma City may soon run out of reasons to keep going full bore, theoretically making it harder to crack the top 10. The Thunder will do it anyway.

Both Cleveland and Oklahoma City Win at Least 67 Games

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Two teams have won 67 or more games in the same season only once: The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (73-9) and San Antonio Spurs (67-15).

Get ready for it to happen again.

Reaching 67 victories requires the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder to each go at least 23-5 coming out of the All-Star break. This is a tall order even by their current standards. It amounts to winning more than 82 percent of their remaining games—a larger share than they've churned out to date.

This prediction is begging to be fired into the sun. Stretch runs are littered with caveats as contenders prioritize the postseason. Both the Cavs and Thunder have strangleholds on the No. 1 seeds in the East and West, respectively. Their closing kicks may not feature their best efforts—by design.

Let's all agree not to care. These two teams have dominated wire-to-wire. If the season ended right now, they would each have one of the 10 highest net ratings in NBA history. And both just so happen to be deep enough that they don't necessarily need picture-perfect availability or play to continue lording over the rest of the league.

LeBron James and Luka Doncic Drop 40 Points in the Same Game

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Teammates have dropped at least 40 points apiece in the same game 20 times—and just 10 times since 1996. Kyrie Irving and, believe it or not, Tim Hardaway Jr. were the most recent friendlies to do it. They both cleared 40 last year as members of the Dallas Mavericks during a January 2024 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans.

LeBron James and Luka Dončić will join the club by the end of the season.

Conventional wisdom is playing zero role in this prediction. It actually defies logic. LeBron has already topped 40 points since turning 40. Twice. Other than him, no player has ever turned in multiple 40-burgers after their 40th birthday. Luka, meanwhile, has yet to even clear the 20-point threshold since joining the Lakers.

Whatever.

LeBron isn't your average veteran in their twilight. And only four players in league history have spit out more 40-point outings than Luka before their 25th birthday. These two can make this happen. And given how fragile the medium-term viability of the Lakers defense seems without Anthony Davis, a victory between now and April 13, their final game of the season, may even depend on them doing it.

Golden State Moves into the West's Top 6

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Four losses separate the Golden State Warriors from the sixth-place Los Angeles Clippers. That is a semi-monstrous gap with fewer than 30 games left on the schedule, particularly when almost nobody in front of you is necessarily tracking toward free fall.

Emphasis on almost.

The Dallas Mavericks are banged up enough to envision them tumbling down the standings. That still leaves the Minnesota Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings and Clippers themselves. The fifth-place Los Angeles Lakers are also worth monitoring. There is even more space between them and 10th-place Golden State, but losses to the Charlotte Hornets and Utah Jazz underscore the slim margin for error with which they're working.

It may take something like a 22-5 finish for Golden State to actualize this prediction. That's fine.

Jimmy Butler's arrival gives the Warriors lightning-in-a-bottle potential. Mixed-bag moments remain commonplace this early into his integration, and Golden State must still figure out how to juggle the rotation when Jonathan Kuminga returns from his ankle injury. But these Warriors have never fielded a perimeter player who puts pressure on the rim and generates free throws like Butler, and the fact they're winning the minutes he logs without Stephen Curry is a big friggin' deal.

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Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.