Ranking the 20 Biggest NBA Playoff Upsets of All Time
The Los Angeles Lakers entered the 2026 NBA playoffs without Luka Dončić (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique). So, despite having home-court advantage in the first round, they were plus-550 underdogs to win their series against the Houston Rockets.
LeBron James didn't mind the uphill climb. The 41-year-old led the Dončić- and Reaves-less to one of the biggest playoff upsets of all time.
Based on pre-series odds, several teams throughout NBA history overcame even bigger gaps, though. We've highlighted the top 20 playoff upsets of all time here, which includes the 2025-26 Lakers.
4-Way Tie at 19. 2020 Heat, 1998 Knicks, 1991 Warriors and 1989 Bulls
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Underdogs' Pre-Series Odds: +350
Plus-350 must be some kind of magic number, because a whopping four underdogs overcame those pre-series odds to advance.
Most recently, Jimmy Butler's Miami Heat did it in the bubble and against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks.
Miami was on the other side of the coin in 1998, when Allan Houston Larry Johnson and the New York Knicks got them.
Seven years earlier, the Run TMC Golden State Warriors with Chris Mullin, Tim Hardaway and Mitch Richmond pulled it off against the San Antonio Spurs.
And all the way back in 1989, some guy named Michael Jordan averaged 39.8 points, 8.2 assists, 5.8 rebounds and 3.0 steals in a 3-2 series win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.
18. Warriors Over Nuggets in 6 (2013)
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Warriors' Pre-Series Odds: +355
In their second full season post-Carmelo Anthony, the Denver Nuggets won 57 games and finished third in the West.
Their balanced attack featured nine players who averaged at least eight points and six who were in double figures.
But in the first round of the playoffs, they caught a future dynasty still on the way up, led by Stephen Curry. In that series, he averaged 24.3 points and 9.3 assists per game while shooting 44.2 percent from deep.
That performance must have made an impression on one of the Nuggets' veteran leaders, since Andre Iguodala joined Golden State in free agency the following summer. He proceeded to win four championships with Curry and the Warriors over the ensuing decade.
17. Celtics Over Cavaliers in 6 (2010)
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Celtics' Pre-Series Odds: +380
LeBron James entered his last series before bolting for the Miami Heat as a heavy favorite to defeat the aging Boston Celtics.
But Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Boston's emerging point guard, Rajon Rondo, stifled LeBron's supporting cast and won the series, 4-2.
Over the six games, KG, Allen and Pierce all averaged between 13.5 and 18.8 points. Rondo is who truly flipped the outcome, though.
Rondo put up 20.7 points, 11.8 assists, 6.3 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game and essentially ended LeBron's first Cleveland era.
16. Heat Over Celtics in 7 (2023)
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Heat's Pre-Series Odds: +400
The Miami Heat's 2023 playoff run was truly one for the ages. This isn't the last time this team will be featured in these rankings.
At this point of the playoffs, Miami had already won two series, but beating the Boston Celtics still felt like an incredibly long shot.
Boston had the second seed. Miami was eighth. The Celtics had a first-team All-NBA forward in Jayson Tatum (30.1 points and 4.6 assists during the regular season) and a second-team forward in Jaylen Brown (26.6 points). It also featured Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and a supporting cast with Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Derrick White.
But Jimmy Butler played like he was obsessed with making the NBA Finals, especially as his Heat jumped out to a 3-0 series lead. In those first three games, Butler put up 26.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 3.7 steals. He overwhelmed the younger Brown and Tatum on both ends of the floor.
Although the Celtics nearly became the first team in league history to overcome a 3-0 series deficit, Butler's 28 points in the closeout game sent Miami to the Finals.
T-14. Celtics Over 76ers in 5 (2018)
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Celtics' Pre-Series Odds: +415
The Boston Celtics had the better regular-season record, but the Philadelphia 76ers were entering the second round in 2018 healthy and coming off a dominant 4-1 series victory over the Miami Heat.
They featured an emerging Joel Embiid, Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons and a strong supporting cast that included JJ Redick, Dario Šarić, Marco Belinelli and Robert Covington. In the regular season, when Philadelphia had any five-man combination of those players on the floor, it was plus-20.4 points per 100 possessions.
Meanwhile, Boston's Jayson Tatum (19 at the time) and Jaylen Brown (21) weren't quite "The Jays" yet. They almost certainly needed more seasoning before leading the Celtics to a big second-round series win.
But this matchup wound up being something of a coming-out party, particularly for Tatum. Over the course of the five games, he put up 23.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game, while five other Celtics averaged double figures.
T-14. Trail Blazers Over Clippers in 6 (2016)
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Trail Blazers' Pre-Series Odds: +415
The 2015-16 campaign was near the peak of the "Lob City" Los Angeles Clippers.
Blake Griffin spent much of that season on the injury report, but he averaged 21.4 points, 8.4 rebounds and 4.9 assists. Chris Paul put up 19.5 points and 10.0 assists per game. JJ Redick averaged 16.3 points and shot a league-best 47.5 percent from three. Jamal Crawford won Sixth Man of the Year, and DeAndre Jordan was first-team All-NBA.
But Griffin and CP3 both missed multiple games in this first-round series, and that cracked the door open more than enough for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
Portland's young backcourt flummoxed L.A.'s defense, averaging a combined 41.7 points and 8.5 assists, while hitting nearly as many threes (28) as the entire Clippers roster (34).
T-12. Hawks Over Magic in 6 (2011)
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Hawks' Pre-Series Odds: +425
You wouldn't think a 4-5 series in the first round would generate an odds gap this wide, but the Orlando Magic were only two years removed from an NBA Finals appearance at this point, and Dwight Howard was coming off one of his best individual campaigns.
In the regular season, Howard averaged 22.9 points, 14.1 rebounds and 2.4 blocks. He finished second in MVP voting and won Defensive Player of the Year.
But the Atlanta Hawks shut down most of his supporting cast in the playoffs, and their well-balanced offense scored just enough to win the series, 4-2.
Jamal Crawford (20.5 points), Joe Johnson (18.0), Josh Smith (14.3), Al Horford (12.0 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists) and Kirk Hinrich (10.2 points) all averaged double figures over the six games.
T-12. Pacers Over Cavaliers in 5 (2025)
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Pacers- Pre-Series Odds: +425
The Indiana Pacers went on one of the best and least expected playoff runs of the century in 2025. That included their second-round upset of the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.
During the regular season, Cleveland won an East-leading 64 games. The Donovan Mitchell-led offense looked like a buzzsaw, at least until it ran into Indiana's gritty, physical defense.
Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith had the perimeter locked down, while Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam protected the paint.
Indiana held Cleveland to an offensive rating over eight points shy of its regular-season mark. That was more than enough defense for Tyrese Haliburton.
On the other end, he put up 17.4 points and 7.0 assists while shooting 45.8 percent from deep. He was one of seven Pacers who averaged at least 8.8 points in that series.
T-10. Suns Over Lakers in 5 (1990)
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Suns' Pre-Series Odds: +500
In 1990, the Los Angeles Lakers may well have had the consensus best player in the world in Magic Johnson.
That season, he won his third MVP in four years. He averaged 22.3 points, 11.5 assists and 6.6 rebounds. His Lakers led the league in wins.
But in the second round of the playoffs, L.A.'s defense was overwhelmed by a determined and well-balanced Phoenix Suns attack.
In that series, Kevin Johnson averaged 22.0 points and 11.2 assists, Tom Chambers added 21.6 points and 6.0 rebounds, and Jeff Hornacek put up 20.8 points and 3.8 assists.
T-10. Pistons Over Lakers in 5 (2004)
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Pistons' Pre-Series Odds: +500
There aren't many NBA Finals with an odds gap this dramatic. By the last round of the playoffs, both teams typically have provided plenty of evidence that they're bona fide contenders.
But in 2004, the Los Angeles Lakers weren't far removed from their threepeat (which ended in 2002). And in the previous offseason, they'd added Gary Payton and Karl Malone to pair with Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal.
Both Payton and Malone were well past their primes by that point. But in the regular season, Payton averaged 14.6 points and 5.5 assists, while Malone added 13.2 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists.
By the time they got to the Finals, especially since they were facing a Detroit Pistons team that was pretty young at the time, L.A. winning a fourth title in five years felt like a safe bet.
But 40-year-old Malone was hampered by an injury, and Detroit's defense absolutely stifled the Lakers attack, holding it to 10.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than it scored in the regular season.
Thanks to a balanced offense led by Richard Hamilton (21.4 points in the series) and Chauncey Billups (21.0) and the defense of Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace and Tayshaun Prince, Detroit ultimately cruised to a 4-1 victory.
T-7. Knicks Over Celtics in 6 (2025)
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Knicks' Pre-Series Odds: +550
Fresh off their championship in 2024, the Boston Celtics entered their second-round matcup as heavy favorites against the New York Knicks.
Though the series will mostly be remembered as the one in which Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles tendon, New York had mostly taken control before that.
Over the first four games, all of which included Tatum, Jalen Brunson averaged 28.0 points and 7.8 assists while shooting 41.2 percent from three.
For the entire series, he, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby all averaged over 14 points. Mitchell Robinson provided his typical impact as an offensive rebounder.
And ultimately, the Knicks bullied their way into the conference finals.
T-7. Lakers over Rockets in 6 (2026)
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Pre-Series Odds: +550
The odds on this one weren't surprising. The Lakers were missing their top two scorers before the series started, one of whom led the entire league in that category this season.
Even if we'd known Kevin Durant was going to miss all but one game in the series, it would've been reasonable to pick the Houston Rockets. During the regular season, Houston was plus-6.9 points per 100 possessions when KD was off the floor.
But JJ Redick's coaching, the competitiveness of seemingly every Lakers role player, a little breakout from Deandre Ayton and LeBron James' institutional know-how completely overwhelmed the younger Rockets.
At 41 years old, LeBron averaged almost 40 minutes per game and averaged 23.2 points, 8.3 assists and 7.2 rebounds. Ayton averaged a double-double. Austin Reaves dropped 37 points in the two games he did play. And Rui Hachimura (58.6 percent from deep), Marcus Smart (44.8 percent) and Luke Kennard (41.7 percent) shot the lights out.
It remains to be seen where this L.A. team goes from here, but their playoff-opening performance was inspired.
T-7. Magic Over Cavaliers in 6 (2009)
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Magic's Pre-Series Odds: +550
In 2008-09, LeBron James had one of the greatest individual seasons in NBA history. He won MVP and averaged 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists. He posted a 13.2 box plus/minus that still ranks fourth all-time, and he led the Cleveland Cavaliers to a league-best 66 wins.
But in the Eastern Conference Finals, he ran into a glimpse of the NBA's future in the Orlando Magic.
That team, despite being led by a dominant center, played a lot more like the pace-and-space teams we commonly see today than the grind-it-out juggernauts of the 1990s and early 2000s.
Dwight Howard averaged 25.8 points and 13.0 rebounds in that series, but Orlando's ability to create from outside the point guard position and hit threes in waves is what made it really tough to beat.
Over those six games, Rashard Lewis averaged 18.3 points and shot 48.4 percent from deep, while Hedo Türkoğlu put up 17.2 points, 6.7 assists and 6.3 rebounds per game and shot 39.1 percent from three.
6. Warriors Over Jazz in 3 (1989)
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Warriors' Pre-Series Odds: +700
Not only did the Golden State Warriors beat the Utah Jazz in the opening round of the 1989 playoffs, they swept 'em.
Led by Karl Malone (29.1 points and 10.7 rebounds in the regular season) and John Stockton (17.1 points, 13.6 assists and 3.2 steals) at the start of their primes, the Jazz went 51-31 and finished second in the West.
But the Warriors' offense overwhelmed a defense that led the league in points allowed per 100 possessions and was anchored by Defensive Player of the Year Mark Eaton.
Utah's defensive rating skyrocketed from 101.5 in the regular season to 114.7 in the first round thanks to huge series from Chris Mullin (32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists) and Mitch Richmond (25.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists). Series-altering defense from Manute Bol (18 blocks in 62 minutes) didn't hurt, either.
5. Heat Over Bucks in 5 (2023)
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Heat's Pre-Series Odds: +750
Two years after winning the 2021 Finals, the Milwaukee Bucks went 58-24 and finished first in the East. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished third in MVP voting after averaging an eye-popping 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists during the regular season.
But he suffered a back contusion in Game 1 of the Bucks' opening-round series against the Miami Heat that forced him to miss Games 2 and 3. In his absence, the Heat's hot shooting overwhelmed the Bucks.
The Heat shot 45.0 percent from deep in the series. That was more than enough support for Jimmy Butler, who turned in a star performance for the ages.
Over the course of the 4-1 series, Butler averaged 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals while thoroughly outperforming Giannis in the games he played.
4. Nuggets Over Clippers in 7 (2020)
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Nuggets' Pre-Series Odds: +850
The Denver Nuggets were the third seed in the West in 2020, but their second-round opponent was one of the hottest picks among both fans and media to win the title that year.
It was Kawhi Leonard's first campaign with the Los Angeles Clippers. He'd just led the Toronto Raptors to their first title (and his second) in 2019. And he looked like the basketball Terminator while doing it.
In L.A., he had Paul George, Sixth Man of the Year winner Montrezl Harrell and Sixth Man of the Year second runner-up Lou Williams. And in the bubble, he and the Clippers went up 3-1 on the Nuggets in the second round.
But Denver gave us a glimpse of what was to come over the last three games.
They won all three, with Jamal Murray averaging 29.0 points and 5.7 assists (he had 40 in the closeout game), and Nikola Jokić adding 24.0 points, 16.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.3 steals.
3. 76ers Over Bulls in 6 (2012)
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76ers' Pre-Series Odds: +900
Plenty of series in NBA history were dramatically altered by injuries that the odds couldn't account for. That's exactly what happened here.
After finishing first in the East with a stifling defense led by Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, the Chicago Bulls lost their leading scorer, Derrick Rose, to a torn ACL in the waning minutes of Game 1 in the first round.
That completely changed the series' trajectory against the Philadelphia 76ers. Only having Noah for three appearances doomed Chicago, too.
The winners still deserve plenty of credit, though. The Bulls went 50-16 that year despite only getting 39 appearances from Rose. They had plenty of experience without their star, but not enough against Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala.
With 18.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists, then-21-year-old Holiday led five 76ers who averaged double figures in the series. Iguodala, who had a team-high 11 steals, shouldered the responsibility on the other end.
2. Warriors Over Mavericks in 6 (2007)
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Warriors' Pre-Series Odds: +1200
In 2006-07, fresh off an NBA Finals appearance, the Dallas Mavericks went 67-15. They had the best record in the league and were six wins clear of second place.
With averages of 24.6 points, 8.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists and a league-leading 8.3 box plus/minus, Dirk Nowitzki won MVP.
Then, he and a Mavericks team that included Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse ran into the "We Believe" Golden State Warriors in the first round.
About a decade before Draymond Green anchored the so-called "Death Lineup," Warriors head coach Don Nelson deployed small-ball lineups to stunning effectiveness against Dirk and the Mavs.
Al Harrington and Andris Biedriņš were the only players who could be classified as bigs in the Warriors' top eight for minutes played that series, and they were seventh and eighth, respectively.
Behind Baron Davis (25.0 points and 5.7 assists per game in the series), Stephen Jackson (22.8 points), Jason Richardson (19.5 points), Matt Barnes and a young Monta Ellis, Golden State scored enough on one end and frustrated Dallas with a switch-heavy scheme on the other.
The Warriors didn't even need a seventh game to send the title-contending Mavs home early.
1. Nuggets Over SuperSonics in 5 (1994)
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Nuggets' Pre-Series Odds: +1400
Shawn Kemp and Gary Payton once made up one of the best duos in the NBA. And in the mid-1990s, they were at the absolute peak of their powers.
The Seattle SuperSonics went 63-19, finishing first in the West. Kemp and Payton were both top seven in MVP voting. Nate McMillan led the league in steals per game and finished seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting. They got solid contributions from Detlef Schrempf, Ricky Pierce and Sam Perkins, too.
But the eighth-seeded Denver Nuggets looked like a team of destiny in that first round.
With a Dikembe Mutombo-led defense, Denver held Seattle to an offensive rating over eight points shy of its regular-season mark. Mutombo blocked a whopping 31 shots in the five-game series, and the Nuggets outrebounded and outshot the Sonics as well.
Denver pushed the Utah Jazz to seven games in the next round but ultimately lost there.
In spite of what could be classified as an early exit, the team and its star gave us one of the truly iconic NBA moments of the 1990s.
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