1 Overreaction for Every NBA Team After First Week
Not enough of the 2024-25 NBA regular season is complete for us to start drawing profound conclusions and deliver them as a serious product.
Profound overreactions? Now that's a different story.
For anyone who understands how this bit works, well, first and foremost: I love you. Also: These next couple of sentences are not for you.
Overreactions are not intended to be gospel. They are deliberately over the top, often gobbling up low-hanging fruit, leaning into hyperbolic declarations and sometimes preying on cliche insecurities for each team and its fanbase.
This exercise is not personal or necessarily predictive. It's an inflammatory, knee-jerk reaction to the few basketball games every team has played so far. With that said, the exaggerations will be used to have genuine discussions.
If you fall for the rage-baiters who screenshot snippets of this without links or context in exchange for teensy-tiny morsels of ad revenue and then you end up angry over it, that's a shame. And it's officially on you. Or them. Whoever, really. So long as it's not little ol', ego-gets-wounded-faster-than-Nikola-Jokić's-arms me.
In all seriousness: Inciting fury is not the purpose of this piece. It's actually meant to strike the right balance between mocking the incendiary takes we all claim to hate yet engage with anyway and general musings that stand as legitimate talking points fewer than five games into the regular season.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 30
The Overreaction: Sound the 'Jalen Johnson got the bag and followed in John Collins footsteps' alarm.
We might as well begin with a banger. Baptism by fire is the best way to understand the spirit of this entire exercise.
Jalen Johnson is going to be better. Having nowhere to go but up is a thing. He won't brick wide-open threes all season. And it would be hard for him to finish at a lower clip around the rim.
That doesn't mean we can just throw away a three-game stretch in which he's shooting 33.3 percent on twos(!), 20 percent on threes and 58.8 percent at the charity stripe. We can't. We shouldn't.
Johnson looks uncomfortable—at both ends. The defensive resistance is often nonexistent, and on too many offensive possessions, it feels like he's being thrust into an outsized role for which he isn't ready.
Shaky availability from the rest of the roster will help the 22-year-old on offense. The Atlanta Hawks shouldn't need him to ferry as many initiation reps once Kobe Bufkin is healthy and on nights when Bogdan Bogdanović is available.
At the same time, the team isn't incapable of streamlining his offensive role now. Reining him in as more of a play-finisher may prove necessary if, specifically, his drives and passes to nowhere don't subside.
Boston Celtics
2 of 30
The Overreaction: This year's championship race is already over.
Can an overreaction actually be an overreaction when said overreaction is possibly just a flat-out fact, in which case it would be a proper reaction?
I'm asking for the Boston Celtics.
As many wax poetic over onset performances from the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers, the reigning champs are loudly going about their business, dismantling anyone and everyone in their wake.
Fattening up their point differential against the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards helps. But the Celtics opened the season dropping the mother of all reality checks on the New York Knicks, one of the biggest so-called threats to their throne.
Jayson Tatum's jumper looks pristine. Jaylen Brown continues to add layers to his offense. Al Horford is actually only 28 years old. The starting lineup has not missed a three since 2022-23. The defense is getting somewhat burned at the rim, but it's allowing so few point-blank opportunities it doesn't matter.
Boston looks poised to comfortably repeat—and that's without factoring in the eventual return of Kristaps Porziņģis.
Brooklyn Nets
3 of 30
The Overreaction: Cam Thomas is about to make NBA history.
Here is every player to average over 30 points per game before their age-24 season:
- Bob McAdoo (twice)
- Oscar Robertson (twice)
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
- Rick Barry
- Walt Bellamy
- Wilt Chamberlain
- Luka Dončić
- Kevin Durant
- LeBron James
- Tracy McGrady
- Michael Jordan
- Jerry West
Cam Thomas sits within striking distance of clearing 30 points per game, which would put him on track to join a list populated exclusively by Hall of Famers. This is obviously going to stick and not-at-all early-season noise.
(Removes tongue from cheek.)
Part of this is being written with a straight face. Thomas won't continue to drill 50-plus percent of his above-the-break threes, but he is, without question, the Brooklyn Nets' primary scoring option. On so many possessions, he's really their only one.
Nobody else on the roster has his on-ball jiggle and joggle. And he's certainly Brooklyn's only player capable of doing this:
Or this:
Clearing 30 points per game remains a tall order. But the Nets need to heavily feature him out of necessity, no matter how bad they ultimately intend to be. So, it's not outside the realm of possibility.
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Charlotte Hornets
4 of 30
The Overreaction: LaMelo Ball is totally making an All-NBA team.
LaMelo Ball is having the kind of moment as a scorer that compels you to overlook the questionable sideline-out-of-bounds passes and 11th-hour decision-making on drives into traffic fueling his nearly six turnovers per game.
Drilling almost 42 percent of his triples is cool. The relentless attacking inside the arc is cooler—and an overall bigger development.
Ball's raw rim pressure isn't quite in line with last season's uptick prior to his right ankle injury. But the unabated forays into the lane remain a staple. He is averaging 18.5 drives per 36 minutes, a monster mark by his standards that has sent defenses into tizzies and buoyed what would, right now, be a career-high free-throw-attempt rate.
Turnovers and persistently spotty defense are tough to overlook. They get easier to ignore when you're spitting out 30-plus points and seven-plus assists per game on ridiculous overall efficiency.
More than anything, though, the opening of this season marks a continuation of what LaMelo flashed last year: A stronger conviction to getting all the way downhill. And this version of him is one capable of crashing the All-NBA discourse.
Chicago Bulls
5 of 30
The Overreaction: Zach LaVine is better than ever.
Note: This is not a sponsored post from Klutch Sports.
Zach LaVine has opened up the season like a man on a mission. Whether that mission is to dunk on his haters and doubters or accelerate his exit from the Chicago Bulls, I'll let you decide.
Either way, LaVine is caps-lock HOOPING.
Through four games, he's averaging 26 points while draining a mind-melting 65.6 percent of his twos and 45.7 percent of his 8.8 three-point attempts per game. He has struggled to control the ball in matchups with the New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder and isn't table-setting nearly as much, but he's reworked his shot profile to include fewer mid-range jumpers.
There have been—and will continue to be—more well-rounded versions of LaVine. But this iteration is someone who's scoring looks more translatable than ever. And while he's past the peak of his athleticism, the hops and on-ball thrust are right in line with where they were prior to last year's right foot injury.
At the end of the preseason, yours truly predicted the Bulls would get (the equivalent of) more than one first-round pick if and when they flip LaVine. It feels like a much safer bet now.
Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 30
The Overreaction: Meet the actual second-best team in the Eastern Conference.
Exactly one team ranks in the top five of offensive and defensive efficiency to start the season. It isn't the Boston Celtics. Or the Oklahoma City Thunder. It definitely isn't the Milwaukee Bucks.
It's the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Cupcake opponents are helping prop up returns. Nobody's winning any awards for dispatching the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons.
But the Cavs have also held up versus the supposedly vaunted New York Knicks, a victory that featured crunch-time gall and samplings of everything that's gassing up one of the league's biggest offensive surprises: advanced ball-handling from Evan Mobley, star-power shot-making that scales to variable usage from Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, and the ability and confidence to close with both Mobley and Jarrett Allen against a team (allegedly) built to stretch opponents out of that decision.
Dean Wade looks good. Ty Jerome looks good. Caris LeVert looks good. Isaac Okoro, well, not so much, but he'll get better. And Max Strus hasn't even played.
Fans of alternative threats to the Celtics will claim this is an overreaction by overreaction's standards. That would be fair...if the Bucks weren't patently sad; the Knicks weren't already entering their "How many minutes can Ariel Hukporti play?" era; and the Philadelphia 76ers weren't a one-star operation bankrolling a three-star operation.
Dallas Mavericks
7 of 30
The Overreaction: Meet the second-best team in the Western Conference.
Remember when we pretended the space directly beneath the Oklahoma City Thunder was up for grabs? Good times.
This is an unhinged takeaway for a Dallas Mavericks squad that, entering Tuesday, has only beaten the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz. The Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns (who already dispatched Dallas) and maybe even the Los Angeles Lakers all have a claim to this honor over the long term. Other candidates will emerge as well.
Still, the separation is in the details: Both what is happening and has yet to happen.
Klay Thompson is at the heart of it all. At this writing, you can (rather easily) argue he has been the Mavericks' best player. That is a wild reality in which to live. And it is even more unnerving when Dallas so far has a top-five defense.
Noisy returns are a rite of October. But that's also the point. The Mavs are galaxies away from operating at peak capacity.
Luka Dončić is going to be better, because he's going to make more shots. The Dereck Lively II-plus-starters unit is going to be better, because, well, obviously. P.J. Washington is going to be better, because he won't shoot sub-20 percent from downtown forever. Naji Marshall will also be better, because offensive streakiness and all, rumor has it he won't continue to miss every three-point attempt he takes.
Frankly, Dallas' performance thus far should put the rest of the league on notice. This is a team that has yet to find itself in totality and is pretty damn good anyway.
Denver Nuggets
8 of 30
The Overreaction: The Denver Nuggets will be a play-in team if Nikola Jokić does not win the scoring title.
Another season, another avalanche of evidence that the Nuggets would be nothing and nowhere without the league's reigning Most Valuable Player.
Only this time, their dependence on him is somehow, someway, even more dire.
Denver is seeing its offensive rating plummet by over 50 points per 100 possessions on the rare occasions in which it plays without Nikola Jokić. The swings for Aaron Gordon (51.4) and Jamal Murray (50.7) are starker, but they seem more tethered to Jokić's minutes than ever and have each enjoyed (slightly) more time watching from the sidelines.
The Nuggets have, unequivocally, looked their most dangerous—and coherent—when the three-time MVP is ferrying the primary scoring burden, in addition to everything else.
That is all at once jarring and not the least bit surprising when you consider the roster's complete lack of shooting, continued uneven performances from Jamal Murray, almost-total no-shows from Michael Porter Jr. and a bench mob that isn't built to complement one another, let alone survive stretches in which second-stringers play alongside a limited number of starters.
Asking Jokić to average a career high (currently 27.1 points) isn't nearly enough. Nor is hoping he can put up 30 a night. Denver looks like it needs him to contend for the scoring title just to tread water on offense—and inside the Western Conference overall.
Detroit Pistons
9 of 30
The Overreaction: Detroit Pistons games should end after three quarters.
Feel free to overreact to more pleasant developments, such as the play and fit of Jaden Ivey. But the Pistons' performance in fourth quarters so far demands gobs of scrutiny.
Feast your eyes on Detroit's total point differential this season by frame, with its ranking in parentheticals:
Shot-making has betrayed the Pistons more than anything in the final frame. Their 35.9 effective field-goal percentage (a measure of two-point and three-point efficiency) ranks dead-last by a galaxy.
If you go back and watch as many possessions as your stomach can stand, you'll see Detroit is striking out on quality opportunities. Players aren't generating a ton of rim pressure, even on mismatches, but they are, at large, chiseling out open jumpers.
Just six teams are taking a larger share of their fourth-quarter looks at wide-open jumpers. (Only two teams are creating more corner threes per final frame as well.) But the Pistons' 50.0 effective field-goal percentage on these opportunities isn't great. Their 51.7 percent conversion rate in the restricted area is ghastly. Their 9.1 percent(!) clip on twos in the paint (but outside the restricted area) is worse—and once again dead-last. (Ku Khalil does an excellent job diving deeper into this issue for Locked On Pistons.)
Perhaps things improve relative to the quality of Detroit's looks. Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr. and even Simone Fontecchio have been unable to buy buckets down the stretch.
Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff may need to switch up some of his fourth-quarter rotations. (More Isaiah Stewart?) In the meantime, the Pistons are worth watching for 36, maybe 40, minutes per game.
Golden State Warriors
10 of 30
The Overreaction: Jonathan Kuminga should not have bet on himself.
Foregoing an extension with the Golden State Warriors while seeking in excess of $30 million per year was certainly a choice by Jonathan Kuminga and his camp. Especially with so few teams slated for cap space next summer.
And if the first part of the season is any indication, it is not shaping up to be a particularly good one.
Kuminga's minutes are actually down to start the year. The preseason three-point volume and efficiency he churned out have both flopped, his defense can be described as beyond inattentive, he's a nondescript presence on the glass, and he's enjoying neither success nor notable opportunities on his drives.
That last part is most damning. Getting downhill is Kuminga's thing. Totaling eight drives through three games—which amounts to 4.9 per 36 minutes—is a mega disappointment.
To what end the Warriors are responsible is debatable. Their starting five—the lineup in which he plays most—does not have the personnel necessary to open runways for Kuminga in the half-court.
This is kind of the point. Kuminga's place in certain combos has long billowed in the wind. He's not making himself any less of a complicated fit by struggling to decision-make in traffic and not only failing to space the floor, but he's also whiffing on the wide-open threes defenses have conceded to him.
Houston Rockets
11 of 30
The Overreaction: There are too many good players on this team, and yes, this is mostly about Amen Thompson.
Though his shooting percentages (and overall numbers) do not reflect it, Amen Thompson seems like he's itching for an offensive breakout. His release seems more fluid from the corners, even on misses, and the increase on his free-throw percentage (tiny sample and all) is encouraging.
Low-hanging fruit can still be gobbled up. He bails out the defense from mid-range on many of his downhill attacks and center-floor catches and too often favors awkward angles at the cup over directly challenging opponents. But the nuclear on-ball and off-the-catch athleticism continues to pop, and the mechanical comfort he's flashing from perimeter levels feels like a good harbinger.
Now if only he could get more run.
Depressed floor time is an inherent risk of coming off the bench. It is subject to even more deflation when the team you're on stretches, like, three capable bodies deep at every spot. The Rockets must find a way to get Thompson 25 or more minutes per game.
Failing that, he certainly shouldn't be on track to average less court time than his rookie season. And while head coach Ime Udoka and general manager Rafael Stone are at it, it would be nice if Reed Sheppard could rank higher than 18th among rookies in minutes per game.
Indiana Pacers
12 of 30
The Overreaction: We are seeing the 2021 Atlanta Hawks reincarnated.
Progress isn't linear. The Indiana Pacers needn't follow up their 2024 Eastern Conference Finals trip with an NBA Finals cameo in 2025 to qualify as "better" or "on the right track" or "on the ascent."
They do, however, have to win more than 25 percent of their games.
Calling the Pacers' start to 2024-25 "rough" would be an understatement. They needed a rally to beat the Detroit Pistons in their first game. They got trucked by the New York Knicks in their second game. They needed overtime to beat a Philadelphia 76ers team down Joel Embiid and Paul George in their third game. And then they came up short against the Orlando Magic in their fourth game while surrendering a 50-burger to Paolo Banchero.
All but one of Indiana's tilts have come down to the wire. And no one thing is crippling them on a night-to-night basis. That's also sort of the problem:
Aside from wondering how long it will take for Tyrese Haliburton to hit at least half of his shots in a single game, no single issue is defining this off-putting start.
There are nuances to plumb and nits to pick. In the macro, though, it could be a personnel problem, or a reactionary defense problem, or a bad-luck problem, or a minutes-distribution problem or a general-underachieving problem.
Whatever it is, or however many whatevers it is, the Pacers need to figure it out. If they don't, they'll continue to give off the same vibes as the 2020-21 Hawks, the conference finalist that never came close to returning or building off that outlier appearance in any way, shape or form.
Los Angeles Clippers
13 of 30
The Overreaction: Ivica Zubac is going to win Most Improved Player.
Offense is a slog for the Los Angeles Clippers, just as we all expected. They are light on creation and shooting, and it shows. But the defense is hellfire, and they are generating enough opportunities in the paint at the other end to get by.
Ivica Zubac is among the driving forces behind both developments. Through three games, he is averaging 22.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists—all career highs by far. His efficiency has slipped, but that tends to happen when you're more than doubling your field-goal attempts and working within clunky half-court confines.
Shooting above 59 percent inside the arc is a minor miracle when you consider the environment and how much more reliant he's become on twos outside the restricted area. His passing, meanwhile, is a small revelation. He's not tossing overly complicated dimes, but his center-of-the-floor threading and spraying is proving indispensable.
The defense is roughly the same as ever. Which is to say, it's underrated. Opponents continue to struggle when challenging him at the basket, often to the extent they don't bother trying.
If Zubac can handle playing 35-plus minutes per game—another career high by far—the Most Improved Player discussion will have no choice other than to prominently feature him.
Los Angeles Lakers
14 of 30
The Overreaction: JJ Redick is going to win Coach of the Year.
If you had the Los Angeles Lakers opening the season with rip-roaring victories over Minnesota, Phoenix and Sacramento, please raise your hand...so that we can all call you a pants-ablazing liar.
Even those most optimistic in Redick's head coaching chops could not have foreseen so many transformative developments right out of the gate.
Anthony Davis is dominating, not just overall, but as the head of the snake on offense. There is more overall movement away from the ball. And the Lakers are really, actually crashing the offensive glass more than once every 37 possessions.
Redick will have the inside track on Coach of the Year honors if the meat and potatoes of this performance holds. It isn't just the shock-and-awe factor of someone so new guiding what may be a better-than-expected team. It's the reality of the Lakers (potentially) making seismic strides under him despite keeping last season's roster entirely intact.
Would it be nice if they finally launched a reasonable number of threes? Or if they weren't getting torched in transition? Absolutely. For now, though, it's impossible to argue against the results.
Memphis Grizzlies
15 of 30
The Overreaction: Head coach Taylor Jenkins' rotation is either tell-tale, unnecessary, confusing as hell or a combination of all three.
Injuries have again noticeably impacted the Memphis Grizzlies' rotation. But it's getting harder and harder to discern what the plan will be when (or if) this roster gets healthy.
Is the recently converted-to-a-standard-deal Jay Huff a mainstay? The product of Zach Edey needing a treadmill? Or Jaren Jackson Jr.'s minutes restriction?
Does this mark a new normal for Marcus Smart, the "normal" being a sub-35 percent clip on twos and sub-20 percent hit rate on threes in fewer minutes per game than Jake LaRavia and Scottie Pippen Jr.? Is Jaylen Wells going to be next to leapfrog him?
What is Santi Aldama to the rotation when others return and aren't on a minutes cap and when Edey isn't in foul trouble? Is he a 4? Maybe a 5? Perhaps even a 3? Or something like a 3.96842?
Where does Luke Kennard fit in upon return? And Vince Williams Jr.? And GG Jackson II? Do we even see the latter at the start of 2025 or will his timeline be pushed back, unofficially, until around 2028?
Does all of this end, somehow, with Yuki Kawamura coming for Ja Morant's minutes? Or us finding out that Jenkins has joined a coaching cult that mandates members have luscious-but-not-too-fluffy beards and never let players average 30 minutes per game?
These are critical questions to which we need answers. Or (*whips out monocle*) do we actually already have them?
Miami Heat
16 of 30
The Overreaction: Tyler Herro is embracing a permanent evolution on the offensive end.
Going this direction requires wading through a little muck. The Miami Heat are generally not turning heads for the right reasons on offense. It says a lot that head coach Erik Spoelstra called a not-quite-decided win over the Detroit Pistons a "thing of beauty."
Tyler Herro isn't about to draw fanfare for his efficiency. He has opened the season downing just 30 percent of his wide-open threes. But his overall shot selection is worth digging into—and then praising.
Almost 30 percent of his field-goal attempts are coming at the rim, a monstrous increase over his career average and even more pronounced relative to the previous two seasons. His mid-range volume, meanwhile, is basically half of where it has landed for his career.
This isn't just a matter of where his shots come from but also how. Though pull-ups remain a central part of his arsenal, more of his made buckets come off assists. Both his spot-up frequency and drives per 36 minutes have also skyrocketed, and the additional rim pressure helps anchor what would be career-best efficiency inside the arc.
Whether this shift proves permanent is a matter of course. But outside progression is inevitable. And if the rest of the shot profile holds steady, Miami will have a version of Tyler Herro that is more plug-and-play—and therefore more dangerous—than ever on its hands.
Milwaukee Bucks
17 of 30
The Overreaction: The sky is falling.
"Right now, we don't have an identity," Giannis Antetokounmpo said after the Milwaukee Bucks lost to the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday, per The Athletic's Eric Nehm. "Like, how are we going to win the game? Are we going to defend for 48 minutes? Are we going to move the ball for 48 minutes? Are we going to attack and play fast for 48 minutes—or 36 minutes and slow down in the last 12? We gotta find an identity. We don't have that right now."
Insert your favorite variation of "Doc Rivers teams are going to be Doc Rivers teams" here. Except, well, uh:
Blame can be doled out in spades, which in itself is part of the problem. You cannot necessarily boil down the Bucks' start to one or two or three things.
The transition defense is bad. Their presence on the glass is troubling, even when you account for punting on second-chance opportunities. Damian Lillard has not recaptured his lethal three-point stroke. Milwaukee has a net rating in the red when he and Giannis share the floor—despite opening the season against a decimated Philadelphia 76ers squad, the Chicago Bulls and the Brooklyn Nets.
Brook Lopez remains integral to the defense but is shooting under 30 percent from three. Perimeter ball containment remains an issue. Milwaukee again doesn't seem wired to run—and is turning the ball over more than any other team when it does. The list can go on.
Minnesota Timberwolves
18 of 30
The Overreaction: They won the Karl-Anthony Towns-for-Julius Randle trade even though Donte DiVincenzo isn't (consistently) nailing threes yet.
Pessimism ruled the day after the Minnesota Timberwolves' opening-night loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. It turns out one game isn't enough to project the outcome of a huge trade, entire season and overarching future.
Three games on the other hand? That is totally, actually, inarguably more than enough.
Warts have surfaced inside the starting lineup, and my own impressions of it change by possession, but the Timberwolves are figuring it out. The opening fivesome has improved its chemistry and statistical performance game-over-game, culminating in the plus-14 showing it dropped against the Toronto Raptors this past Saturday.
Randle, for his part, has rebounded from a tough-sledding-to-say-the-least Game 1. He is now canning more than 65 percent of his twos and over 50 percent of his threes for the season and effectively straddling the lines between self-starting scorer, complementary spacers/catch-and-goer and ball-mover. He and Rudy Gobert clearly have a better idea of how to play and move off one another, and Randle has materially lowered the frequency with which he uses pull-up jumpers as a crutch.
Once DiVincenzo starts swishing treys again, forget about it. And this says nothing of the long-term financial avenues Minnesota has opened by exchanging KAT's supermax salary for Randle ($30.9 million player option for next season) and DV's cheapo deal.
Viewed in tandem with Gobert's own extension, which included him declining next year's player option, the Wolves now have a more realistic pathway towards keeping the current core intact beyond this season, Naz Reid (2025-26 player option) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (unrestricted) and all.
New Orleans Pelicans
19 of 30
The Overreaction: This offense is cooked.
Hovering around 20th in points scored per possession this early into the season would not be so unforgivable if the New Orleans Pelicans had a clear path out of the bottom-10ish abyss. They don't.
Pretend like they can and will shoot more threes if you're a sucker for delusion. The rest of us know better.
And to that end, New Orleans' shot selection makes the snail-paced speed at which it so often plays pure, unadulterated, somebody's-bound-to-get-fired-and/or-traded malpractice.
Placing in the top five of transition frequency isn't enough. That is the bare minimum. Especially when you're not write-home efficient in those situations.
The Pelicans are currently 14th in average possession time, according to Inpredictable. This ranking drops to 25th after an opponent make. That can't fly when your half-court attack isn't even good enough to be considered smoke-and-mirrors. New Orleans is decidedly inside the bottom 10 of half-court efficiency and 27th in points per possession after an opponent make.
Spotting the solution is difficult, if not impossible, without getting into hypothetical trades. Dejounte Murray's absence winnows down the number of primary ball-handlers comfortable pulling up from deep to zero, and the Pelicans remain in this unsettlingly bad state of not being able to use their two best players, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, in joint actions that create actual advantages:
Even if the offense ticks up from here, we will all know it's nowhere near sustainable (or good) enough to reach the heights New Orleans supposedly cares about exploring.
New York Knicks
20 of 30
The Overreaction: The Karl-Anthony Towns trade was a mistake.
Plenty of more reps are needed before we seriously relitigate the KAT trade for both the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves. (Remember the spirit of this exercise.)
But the opening-week returns are sure-fire evidence that New York has a long way to go if it's going to optimize the roster's new (and shallower) look.
Getting Towns to more effectively space the floor is an easy—and necessary—place to start. He is seventh on the team in three-point attempts per game. The two long-range looks he's averaging would be the lowest since his rookie campaign and is inexcusable when five-out mayhem should represent the crux of the Knicks' identity.
Clinging to their offensive rank (third) doesn't assuage the concern. They have not catered to that strength down the stretch. They are 27th in points scored per possession during the fourth quarter when filtering out that disaster of an opening-night loss to the Boston Celtics.
Towns has attempted as many final-frame threes as Ariel Hukporti and Jericho Sims (zero). There needs to be more of an emphasis on not only putting him in situations to fire away but also leveraging his presence beyond the arc in general:
Spotlights will be cast onto the defense, too. We need more evidence. New York's defense has fared just fine when it doesn't play the Celtics. But this team is supposed to be built in the image of Boston's foil.
Equally important: When you filter out that game, opponents have shot 12-of-12 when being challenged by KAT at the rim. The blame can be dispersed to both team and player. It feels like head coach Tom Thibodeau has room to use him more aggressively, but Towns needs to be more consistent at the varying levels to which he's often dropping.
Oklahoma City Thunder
21 of 30
The Overreaction: This is the best defense of all time.
The 1974-75 Washington Bullets currently own the lowest defensive rating in NBA history, having surrendered 0.91 points per possession.
And the 2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder are about to shatter that mark.
Through three games, this squad is allowing a bonkers 0.90 points per possession. Its absurdity holds up even when you filter out garbage time. And yet, garbage time will matter for the Thunder. Because they are going to force-feed opponents a crap ton of it. And then they're going to win those reps while playing exhaustive defense. Because they are that freaking deep.
Flaws in this overreaction abound. Surely Oklahoma City won't force turnovers on 20 percent of its defensive possessions forever. And opponents definitely aren't going to shoot sub-50 percent at the rim and sub-30 percent from downtown until the end of time.
Then again, what if they do? Or what if it doesn't matter? The Thunder are equal parts long and disruptive and smart and versatile and frenetic. Oh, and they haven't even debuted their elite defensive big man whom they signed over the summer.
Once Isaiah Hartenstein takes the floor, there's a chance this all-time stingy defense gets...stingier, even if only by virtue of better rebounding and allowing fewer looks at the rim.
Orlando Magic
22 of 30
The Overreaction: A pretty ridiculous drought is about to end.
It turns out the Orlando Magic may have enough offense after all. Shame on all (me) of you (me) who claimed otherwise (me).
Orlando ranks in the top five of points scored per possession through four games. Don't bother pretending like you predicted it. You didn't.
Party-poopers will wonder, loudly, whether this is a new normal or small-sample spectacle. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are all shooting over 39 percent from deep on more than five attempts per game. Gary Harris is north of 47 percent on more than four attempts. As a team, the Magic are above 39 percent from distance on noticeably more volume than last year. Anthony Black is hitting game-winning threes.
Regression to the mean is coming. Probably. If and when it does, Orlando has the cushion to sustain chunks of its improvement. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has not started hitting his threes yet. Ditto for Wendell Carter Jr. They aren't getting lucky from anywhere else on the floor, and the group looks more committed to getting out on the break.
And most importantly: Paolo Banchero might be an alien.
At any rate, the Magic are currently on track to finish in the top half of offensive efficiency for the first time since...the 2011-12 lockout season...when Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson and Jameer Nelson were their leading scorers...and when a 10-year-old Banchero was hooping at recess.
Philadelphia 76ers
23 of 30
The Overreaction: Caleb Martin and Andre Drummond are going to start more games than Joel Embiid and Paul George.
Am I doing this right? Or is this too real?
This resident idiot predicted Embiid, George and Tyrese Maxey would total over 1,000 minutes together by campaign's end. More than one week into the season, however, neither Embiid (left knee) nor George (left knee) has made his debut. And the offense has devolved into a predictable slog-and-a-half because of it.
More level-headed prognosticators would opine that there's plenty of basketball left to play: "The season isn't yet five games old! There is still time!"
Here's hoping those hypothetical people are right. But the prospect they're wrong looms. And at the end of it all, would any of us really be surprised if Martin and/or Drummond winds up starting more games than George and/or Embiid?
Phoenix Suns
24 of 30
The Overreaction: Kevin Durant is playing too many damn minutes.
What's the best way to manage Kevin Durant's workload after he placed sixth in total minutes played during 2023-24, his age-35 season? I'm neither a doctor nor head coach nor especially intelligent, so I have no idea.
But I'm pretty sure it doesn't entail having him lead the league in total minutes during his age-36 season.
KD is the consummate professional, somebody who wants to play all the time, because he's a real hooper. That's great. Grand. Wonderful. But this workload feels unsustainable.
To be fair, myself and others likely said the same thing on many occasions last year. Things ended up working out just fine for him. But his floor time is, if nothing else, reiterant proof of how small and shallow and inexperienced the Suns are outside the backcourt.
Regardless of how many caveats you'd like to pepper into Phoenix's first four games, there are few scenarios in which Durant playing no fewer than 38 minutes to date can be considered part of a tenable plan.
Portland Trail Blazers
25 of 30
The Overreaction: Trade Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant already. Good lord.
This overreaction is more nuanced than it seems.
Scoot Henderson is starting to look the part of a guiding light for the future. Emphasis on look. Because the efficiency isn't catching up to the eye test just yet.
But it will. Or it should. Henderson's rim pressure has skyrocketed, suggesting (proving?) that his ankle injury last year accounted for loads of the functional awkwardness in his game. And while his athleticism is more frequently leaping off the screen, he is generally doing a better job at changing his on-ball cadence (something he flashed towards the end of last year).
Turnovers remain a conundrum, and the Portland Trail Blazers seem like they're trying to force him into a defining role depending on the lineup, but the decision-making just feels better overall. Henderson has cleaned up his shot selection and is clearly trying to set up others more often on his drives.
Head coach Chauncey Billups continues to start Simons and bring Henderson off the bench anyway. Oh, and the Blazers apparently gave up two first-rounders (and Malcolm Brogdon) just to watch Deni Avdija have less influence over their offense and shoot single digits from downtown. It would be easier to explore the depth of his game and fit if Grant weren't sponging up 30-plus minutes per night.
Insulating prospects and newcomers with proven and familiar depth is a reasonable course. Portland is taking it too far on at least one level, if not multiple.
Sacramento Kings
26 of 30
The Overreaction: Mike Brown has decided Keon Ellis isn't a real person and figments of imagination cannot play too many minutes in meaningful basketball games.
Ahem:
This is a tough pill to swallow given how well Keon Ellis played to close last season, and how much the Sacramento Kings still need the defensive hustle and playmaking he brings to the table.
And to anyone impatient and unimaginative enough to already be yelling "Watch the games, dammit!!," I am fully aware the Kevin Huerter renaissance complicates matters. He is, by far, the more aggressive shot-taker and maker on the offensive end, and his defense has looked pretty good to start the year.
That doesn't make Ellis' "situational" use any easier to accept. And for now, you will have a hard time convincing me it's the right call when Sacramento's three best perimeter players—De'Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan and Keegan Murray—are all averaging over 37 minutes per game.
Brown will be among the first to tell you he's still figuring out and futzing and fiddling with his rotation. Maybe the rotation evolves to more regularly, and more heavily, incorporate Ellis. But he saw just 14 minutes in Monday's victory over the Portland Trail Blazers despite the Kings leading by as much as 26 points in the fourth. (He did play more in Tuesday's blowout win over the Utah Jazz.)
For the time being, his role seems like it's being superficially capped in favor of leaning too heavily on the top of the roster.
San Antonio Spurs
27 of 30
The Overreaction: The turnover issues are here to stay.
Chris Paul's arrival was supposed to overhaul the San Antonio Spurs offense. He was never going to be a panacea, particularly when it came to functional floor-spacing. But the turnover woes would assuredly chill out with both he and Tre Jones running the show.
So much for that.
Jones has appeared in just one game after suffering a right ankle sprain, but that means little when looking at the larger context. The Spurs are committing turnovers on 18.6 percent of their offensive plays (28th), and that mark barely improves with Paul in the game (18.5 percent). The 39-year-old floor general himself is surrendering possession over 28 percent of the time.
Some of this will normalize. CP3, in particular, will have a better feel for where his teammates are going as this group gets more reps. But the manner in which the Spurs are giving away the ball runs the situational gamut: lost balls, bad passes, stepping out of bounds, traveling, etc.
This is not something that seems like it can be resolved through one player or adjustment. It feels like a wholesale issue—an offshoot of having so much youth and general unfamiliarity, not to mention spotty spacing, that will either take seasons (plural) or fundamental personnel changes to remedy.
Toronto Raptors
28 of 30
The Overreaction: RJ Barrett is the second-most important player to the Toronto Raptors' future.
Yes, RJ Barrett has only played in one game after missing the start of the season with a right shoulder issue. And sure, Immanuel Quickley has, basically, just a half-game under his belt after suffering a pelvic injury in the opener.
And OK, Toronto has paid IQ like he's its most likely crack at housing a long-term No. 2. And fine, someone such as Gradey Dick or Ja'Kobe Walter (when healthy) or Jamal Shead or, more likely, a player yet to be drafted or acquired can contend for this spot in the big-picture pecking order.
At least for now, though, the honor belongs to Barrett, who spent his season debut reinforcing almost everything he did well upon joining the Raptors last season: relentless driving, chaos creation in the paint, perpetual pressure in transition and much-improved finishing around the rim.
If the volume he delivered from distance in his first game (six attempts) can more closely align with his partial-season efficiency from last year (39.2 percent), everyone else on—and not yet on—the roster will have a difficult time usurping him in the long-haul hierarchy.
Utah Jazz
29 of 30
The Overreaction: The best player of the next good Utah Jazz team is not on this year's Utah Jazz team.
Even with Lauri Markkanen in the fold, the prevailing consensus is that Utah still needs to find its face of the future. Holding out hope for one of the incumbent prospects to pop is fair—and officially a stretch.
Keyonte George's aesthetics have yet to incorporate any semblance of reasonable efficiency. Walker Kessler is out of the doghouse, but unless he's the second coming of Rudy Gobert, which he's not, a player of his archetype can't fit the bill in a league where offensive creation reigns supreme.
Taylor Hendricks' (should-be) season-ending right leg injury is a bummer. And this isn't the time to pan his long-term ceiling. Much like Kessler, though, he is never going to have the type of agency over the offense required to meet face-of-the-team criteria.
I will continue to light candles for Cody Williams' ceiling, because I believe it's infinitely high. But he plays like he knows it in only flickers and flashes. And let's be honest, if that's your best shot at a blue-chip cornerstone, you're almost assuredly still in the market for...a blue-chip cornerstone.
Washington Wizards
30 of 30
The Overreaction: The Washington Wizards are about to Charlotte Bobcats.
After trying and failing to neatly package "Bilal Coulibaly seems comfortable working and decision-making off the dribble, turnovers and all, but for the love of everything, please be consistently aggressive looking for your own shot" into an overreaction, we end up here.
Finishing dead-last in points scored and allowed per possession was popularized by the epically awful 2011-12 Bobcats. Flirting with the milestone has since become a hallmark of effective tank jobs.
Washington appears ready and willing to embrace its own dalliance.
The Wizards entered Tuesday's games 29th in offense and 30th in defense. We should have the most faith in the latter continuing to prop up rock-bottom returns. Even if teams stop shooting a kabillion percent from deep, they will continue to convert a kajillion percent of their looks at the rim.
Bobcatsian vibes are iffier at the other end of the floor. Washington has the talent to cease missing every jump shot it takes. This is a bet that youth and inevitable roster churn will win out in the form of league-worst efficiency.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering games on Tuesday, Oct. 29. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.
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