10 Predictions for the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline
Trade season doesn't start in earnest until after the All-Star break, but with just over six weeks until the trade deadline, it's officially trade rumors season.
The interesting part about trying to project trades now is there are a lot of teams on the bubble. Sure, the Colorado Rockies aren't going to be buyers, and the Los Angeles Dodgers aren't going to be sellers. But the fates of teams such as the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox will be decided over the next month-plus.
With the acknowledgement that plenty could still change before July 31, here are 10 predictions for the 2025 MLB trade deadline.
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The Pirates Will Not Trade Paul Skenes
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It is extremely frustrating that Paul Skenes is pitching as well as anyone in baseball but has a 4-6 record for a Pirates team that isn't going to sniff the postseason.
As much as you might like to see the reigning NL Rookie of the Year pitching in October this year, though, it would be shocking if that's how things play out.
There will likely come a day as Skenes gets close to free agency that the Pirates decide to trade the 2023 No. 1 overall pick because they don't believe they'll sign him long-term.
However, the 23-year-old isn't even going to become arbitration-eligible until 2027. He can't become a free agent until after the 2029 season. If you aren't desperately trying to maximize your window with a player like that, what are you doing?
Granted, the Pirates didn't try desperately to build around Skenes last offseason.
Whether it's Ben Cherington or someone else leading the baseball operations moving forward, it's fair to wonder if owner Bob Nutting will be willing to authorize the necessary spending to put a playoff-caliber team around Skenes before he prices his way out of Pittsburgh.
But it's way too early to admit defeat.
Luis Robert Jr. Will Finally be Traded, but Not For Anything Significant
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Luis Robert Jr. leads the American League with 21 stolen bases, but he is struggling so much at the plateâhe's slashing .184/.269/.304âthat it's going to be hard for the Chicago White Sox to get anything meaningful in return for him.
Since hitting 38 home runs with an .857 OPS in 2023, he has just 19 home runs and a .623 OPS. When you add in his injury history, he would basically be someone you would trade for hoping a change of scenery helps him to recapture his All-Star form.
And there are plenty of teamsâthe Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners among themâthat will be intrigued by the chance to buy relatively low on someone who won't turn 28 until a few days after the trade deadline.
As far as the White Sox are concerned, though, any trade will likely be more about saving face than anything. At one point, Robert's contract appeared to be very team-friendly. Right now, he's a player making $15 million with a minus-0.3 WAR.
Unless they are prepared to pick up his $20 million club option next season, the White Sox need to view him as an impending free agent they can get a lottery ticket for.
Red Sox Trade Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu
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Roman Anthony was the consensus top prospect in baseball, but it took Wilyer Abreu going on the injured list with a left oblique strain for the the 21-year-old to finally get promoted to The Show.
We'll see if the Red Sox turn around what has been a disappointing season, but there's definitely an argument from a long-term perspective that they should move one of the team's current starting outfielders to clear a spot for Anthony permanently.
Ceddanne Rafaela has experience playing all over the diamond, but he has settled in as one of the top defenders in all of baseball as a center fielder, where he has 10 defensive runs saved and nine outs above average this season. So, it seems unlikely the Red Sox would move the versatile 24-year-old.
What's more likely is that either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu is moved. And there will be plenty of interest in both.
Duran has already been reported as a piece of interest to the San Diego Padres by Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The 28-year-old led baseball in both doubles and triples last season, and again finds himself in the lead in terms of triples this season.
What the Red Soxâand any potential suitorsâwill have to decide is whether they think he can ever replicate the 6.7 WAR he posted last year, or if he's more of a three- or four-win player who had one superstar season.
The 2024 version of Duran is the type of player who is untouchable. But his value right now might be at its peak because he hasn't yet conclusively proved last year was an outlier, although he isn't performing at that same level overall again.
If the Red Sox hold onto Duranâwho can't become a free agent until after 2028âAbreu would also net them something really good in return, assuming he gets healthy.
The 25-year-old has a .795 OPS and 24 defensive runs saved in right field in parts of three MLB seasons. He won't even become arbitration-eligible until 2027.
The Red Sox don't have to trade anyone, but with so much position-playing talent, flipping one of their surplus of star outfielders might be the best move for the franchise. From here, Duran seems the most likely to be dealt.
The Marlins Will Hold On to Sandy AlcĂĄntara
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Surely, Miami Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix entered the season hoping Sandy AlcĂĄntara would pitch so well that he could be traded for a franchise-altering package of prospects.
In reality, the former NL Cy Young Award winner has had a nightmarish season thus far after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He has a 7.14 ERA and minus-1.2 WAR, per Baseball Reference.
If the 29-year-old goes on a tear over the next month, this might change, but right now the Marlins would be selling AlcĂĄntara at an all-time low.
The good news for Miami is that AlcĂĄntara isn't in a contract year. He's owed $17.3 million in 2025, and his contract also includes a $21 million club option for 2026.
If the Fish hold onto AlcĂĄntara and he regains his ace form in the second half of this year or even in 2026, they'll still be able to get quite the return for him.
Right now, that seems like the best strategy, though contending teams will certainly try to convince them to sell low on the two-time All-Star.
The Trade Deadline Will Run Through the Diamondbacks if They Sell
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The Diamondbacks entered 2025 with World Series aspirations, but they are currently under .500 and just lost former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes for the season to Tommy John surgery.
Arizona certainly shouldn't trade Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte or Geraldo Perdomo, but Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Josh Naylor and Eugenio SuĂĄrez are all in contract years.
All four would be coveted by contenders on the trade market and potentially allow the Snakes to recoup pieces who could help them return to contention in 2026. Especially if general manager Mike Hazen doesn't believe the team will re-sign that quartet, listening to inevitable trade offers would make sense.
There are some other names worth seeing what's out there on, such as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. If there's a team that would take on the $13 million he's owed in 2026, that money could be better allocated.
For the most part, though, the D-backs should only be thinking about moving pieces that won't be with them beyond this year, because they could easily contend again in 2026.
That may become even more likely if they hit on the returns for some impending free agents in the coming weeks.
The Braves Will Not Be Sellers
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It's fair to say it's been a disastrous season for the Braves relative to expectations entering the year, but it's still hard to think they will be selling just a couple weeks after hosting the All-Star Game.
Might they be willing to trade Marcell Ozunaâwho is 34 and in a contract yearâif things don't turn around? Perhaps, and there would definitely be interest in him from DH-needy contenders. But he has a .904 OPS since the start of the 2023 season. If anything, you would think the Braves would like to re-sign him after this season.
Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale seems even less likely to be traded. He's got what amounts to an extremely team-friendly $18 million club option for 2026. Even if the Braves do a minor sell-off, trading him wouldn't make sense.
Above all, there's too much talent on this team for it not to turn around. Ronald AcuĂąa Jr. didn't make his season debut until May 23. Spencer Strider is still trying to find his rhythm after his second major elbow surgery. Austin Riley (.775 OPS), Ozzie Albies (.653 OPS) and Michael Harris II (.610 OPS) have all underperformed. Jurickson Profar won't be eligible for the postseason after failing a PED test, but he's going to be back for nearly the entire second half of the regular season.
There is reason to think the Braves could get significantly better as the season goes along.
It's clear the Braves have a hole at shortstop and need to completely remake their bullpen. We're not underestimating the challenges facing president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, but he's someone who has earned the benefit of the doubt.
The Blue Jays Will Go Down Swinging
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If you're a team in need of a major offensive upgrade in the infield and hoping the Toronto Blue Jays will decide to trade Bo Bichette, don't hold your breath.
Even though their run differential is hovering around neutral, the Blue Jays are well above .500 in an AL East that's not nearly as deep as expected.
President Mark Shapiro, general manager Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider are probably all on the hot seat too, so they aren't going to be inclined to sell current talent off for future pieces they may not be around to reap the rewards from.
Unless there's a huge swoon in the coming weeks, the Blue Jays will almost certainly hold onto Bichette and Chris Bassitt, two players in contract years.
Not only will Toronto hope Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman and Bowden Francis turn around disappointing seasons, but it will also likely make some additions to try to sneak into the playoffs as an AL wild-card representative, if not the AL East champions.
Orioles Wave the White Flag on 2025, but Not 2026
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It's been a miserable season for the Baltimore Orioles, who have already fired manager Brandon Hyde and replaced him on an interim basis with Tony Mansolino. They could change course if they have a great June, but this feels like a lost season.
Should things not turn around in a meaningful way in Baltimore, general manager Mike Elias could operate in a similar manner to what we outlined with the Diamondbacks.
No, Gunnar Henderson is not going to be available. Even though Adley Rutschman has struggled over the last calendar year, he's not going anywhere. But there are some shorter-term pieces the Orioles could move, and we know Elias has a good eye for young talent.
Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Zach Eflin, Seranthony DomĂnguez and Gregory Soto are all in contract years and should be expected to be dealt if the O's do sell. Tomoyuki Sugano is someone who also fits that bill, though as Baltimore tries to break into the Japanese market, it could try to hold on to him beyond this year.
But first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is an above replacement level option a team would be getting for 2025 and 2026. Relievers FĂŠlix Bautista and Bryan Baker both have multiple years of control left, so the Orioles don't have to move them. But Elias could take advantage of how many contenders need bullpen upgrades and get really good pieces back in return for one or both of them.
Obviously, the Orioles didn't want to be in this spot. But they could revitalize their organization in short order if Elias makes the right moves before July 31.
It Will Be a Seller's Market for Relievers
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We mentioned it in a positive sense in regards to the Orioles, but if you're a team that is in need of at least one reliever, get comfortable with being uncomfortable in terms of how much you're going to have to give up.
Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays
- 2.30 ERA and 12 saves in 28 games this season ... 31 years old ... free agent after this season
Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals
- 2.25 ERA and 18 saves this season ... was an All-Star last year, but Nationals non-tendered him after he posted a 5.79 ERA in second half of 2024 ... free agent after 2025
Dennis Santana, Pittsburgh Pirates
- 2.27 ERA in 67 games since being acquired by Pirates, but has a 4.46 ERA in 233 career appearances ... 29 years old ... can't become a free agent until after 2026 season
FĂŠlix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles
- 3.32 ERA and 12 saves in 22 games this season ... won Mariano Rivera Award as best reliever in the American League in 2023, but missed all of 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery ... free agent after 2027 campaign
Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox
- 1.65 ERA and 11 saves in 30 games this season ... 37 years old and posted a 3.68 ERA in 172 games between 2022 and 2024 ... free agent after this season
This is hardly a comprehensive list of relievers who could be available at the trade deadline, but it's certainly some of the best names.
All would be excellent additions, but in a perfect world, they would probably be your second- or third-best reliever. Bautista has the highest upside, but he hasn't pitched in the dominant manner he did two years ago.
With so many teams in need of arms, though, all are going to go for more than you would like. That's going to be the the cost of doing business, and if you don't meet it, your chances to compete this October go down.
Certainly, though, the long-term advantage in most trades for relievers is going to lean heavily in favor of the team that's selling.
Dodgers Will Have to Trade for Both Starting and Relief Pitching Depth
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Remember the spring training talk about how the Dodgers had an army of pitching?
As it turns out, they've needed every bit of it, and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman will have to bring in reinforcements for both the starting rotation and bullpen as they attempt to repeat as World Series champions.
At the time of publication, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips and Luis Garcia are all on the injured list. Other arms such as Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan and Brusdar Graterol were on the IL before the season even began. Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates are all healthy right now, but they have been hurt in the not-so-distant past.
The Dodgers are going to need impact additions in their starting rotation and bullpen, and as one of the best executives of his era, Friedman is likely to succeed in picking the right ones.
From a big-picture perspective, though, they need to figure out why they've struggled so much at keeping their arms healthy. It can't just be a coincidence.
