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2025 NBA Finals - Indiana Pacers v Oklahoma City Thunder
Morgan Givens/NBAE via Getty Images

Pacers Make NBA History, Viral Win Probability Stat Behind Haliburton's Game 1 Heroics

Scott PolacekJun 6, 2025

Perhaps the Oklahoma City Thunder should consider letting the Indiana Pacers play from ahead for the rest of these NBA Finals, so they don't continue to make comeback history.

After all, the Thunder led the entirety of Thursday's Game 1.

Until they didn't.

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Indiana came charging back from nine points down with fewer than three minutes remaining to put itself in position to win in the final seconds. As if there was any doubt who would take the clutch shot, Tyrese Haliburton elevated and drained a midrange jumper with 0.3 seconds left to put the visitors ahead for good, 111-110.

The Pacers made history in the process, becoming the first team since 1971 to come back from nine or more points in the final three minutes of an NBA Finals game:

They've now won four games this postseason in which they had a win probability of 4.1 percent or lower at one point in the contest.

It was more of the same for Indiana, which overcame a seven-point deficit in the last 40 seconds of overtime in the series-winning game in the first round against the Milwaukee Bucks in part because of Haliburton's winning shot.

That was just the start, though, as he spearheaded a comeback in Game 2 of the second-round win over the Cleveland Cavaliers and perhaps the most stunning one in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks.

Haliburton forced overtime against the Knicks with a shot that bounced high off the rim but only after Aaron Nesmith's three-pointers helped the Pacers overcome a 14-point deficit in the last four minutes.

ESPN's Jamal Collier noted teams were 0-1,414 since 1998 when trailing by nine or more points in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime until that Game 1 victory against the Knicks.

According to Mike Beuoy of Inpredictable.com (h/t ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton), this year's Pacers team has three of the seven most unlikely comeback wins in the NBA playoffs since 1997.

While Haliburton's clutch shot and the late charge stood out from Thursday's Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Indiana was in comeback mode throughout. In fact, it didn't have a single lead in the contest until Haliburton's dagger, underscoring how this team refuses to quit despite any deficit. 

It continues to make history as a result.

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