UFC 316: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions

June will be a rare, two pay-per-view month for the UFC. The first, UFC 316, goes down this Saturday in Newark, New Jersey.

The event will be headlined by a bantamweight title fight between champion Merab Dvalishvili and challenger Sean O'Malley.

It will be the second time the pair have met in the span of a year, as the Georgian beat O'Malley by decision to win the belt last September.

The champion has fought once since then, defending his belt against Umar Nurmagomedov early this year.

O'Malley, meanwhile, has not fought since losing the belt, which makes him a bit of a dubious challenger, but the American is one of the UFC's biggest stars and stands as good a chance of dethroning Dvalishvili as anyone.

There will also be a title up for grabs in the co-headliner, as women's bantamweight champion Julianna Peña looks for her first title defense against former PFL champ Kayla Harrison.

Peña is extremely confident heading into the matchup, but Harrison represents one of the toughest tests of her entire career, as she is one of the most dominant female fighters in the sport's history.

Before we get to the title fights, former Bellator bantamweight champ Patchy Mix will make his UFC debut opposite Mario Bautista.

Mix, widely considered one of the best bantamweights in the sport, stepped in on short notice to replace the injured Marlon Vera. The winner of the fight will face one of the top contenders in the division

We'll also get a rescheduled middleweight fight between fringe contenders Joe Pyfer and Kelvin Gastelum on the main card, as well as a scrap between welterweight fan favorites Kevin Holland and Vicente Luque.

With UFC 316 now just days away, it's time for another round of pre-fight predictions from the B/R combat sports staff. Here's how we see it all going down in Newark.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley II

Harry How/Getty Images

Tom Taylor

Dvalishvili dominated O'Malley the first time they met, and after hitting a new level in his recent win over Nurmagomedov, I see him doing so again.

O’Malley’s precision striking and deceptive power will give him a chance for as long as this fight lasts, but there's no reason to predict a different outcome than we got when these two first met less than a year ago.

I'm forecasting another wide decision win for Dvalishvili, who I consider one of the three best fighters in the sport right now, along with Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev.

Prediction: Dvalishvili by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons

I thought the "Suga" man would win the first one, and it's going to take more than a single loss for me to wholly disembark the hype train.

So, I'll buy into the narrative that O'Malley is more dedicated this time around and assume he lands the shot that changes things and dissuades Merab.

I'm not as confident as I was last September, but I'll stick with him for a TKO.

Prediction: O’Malley by TKO, Rd. 2

Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor

At the risk of coming across as a hater, I’ve just got to say it: I think Peña is wildly overrated.

She's good, sure, but most of her relevance stems from her shocking 2021 win over Amanda Nunes, which feels like ancient history at this point.

She barely scraped by Raquel Pennington to win the title last year, and I honestly believe she would lose to a good chunk of the women in the bantamweight top 10 right now. 

Harrison, meanwhile, might be the top pound-for-pound fighter on the women's side of the sport, outside of Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili.

Unless the former PFL champ is completely compromised from her gruelling weight cut down to 135 pounds, I think she runs over Peña in what will be remembered as a serious mismatch.

Takedowns and ground-and-pound win her the UFC title she has long coveted—probably before we hit the championship rounds.

Prediction: Harrison by TKO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons

The trash-talking on ESPN's Fight Night broadcast last weekend officially piqued my interest.

Pena said all the right things by pointing out her many achievements despite perpetual underdog status, but it didn't do anything to lessen Harrison's terrifying presence in my mind's eye.

If she can make weight without dying, she's too much for the Vixen.  

Prediction: Harrison by KO, Rd. 2

Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista

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Tom Taylor

I don't know if I would pick former Bellator champ Mix in a hypothetical fight with Dvalishvili, but I think I’d back him against every other bantamweight on the UFC roster right now.

This guy is ridiculously good—absolutely ferocious on the ground, and very underrated on the feet.

Bautista, on the other hand, is a fighter I would describe as "pretty good." He can beat a lot of top-10 bantamweights. I probably would have picked him to beat Vera had that fight gone ahead.

But I can't pick him over Mix. He is going to be in over his head. 

Prediction: Mix by submission, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons

The first two fights on the PPV don't do much to move my needle, but I am intrigued by Mix's arrival on the promotional scene.

He's got a career's worth of street cred from his days with Bellator and, though Batista is on a roll of his own, none of the guys he's beaten have been at the level that Mix seems to have already reached.

Welcome to the show.

Prediction: Mix by submission, Rd. 1

Joe Pyfer vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor

Pyfer's punching power makes him a danger for any middleweight he meets in the Octagon, but I can't shake the memory of him being outfoxed by long-time contender Jack Hermansson last year.

Gastelum is not nearly as great as I once believed he would become, but he is good enough to replicate Hermansson's strategy and win this fight. He's durable enough to withstand Pyfer's early assault and a good enough grappler to take control of the fight in rounds two and three.

I picked him when he was originally matched up with Pyfer, and I'm picking him again. 

Prediction: Gastelum by unanimous decision 

Lyle Fitzsimmons

This one would have made a nice Fight Night main event, but it's in the No. 2 hole here on the main card.

Pyfer was the Philly flavor of the month before running into Jack Hermansson 16 months ago, and Gastelum has morphed into a gatekeeper who's almost guaranteed to provide a Fight of the Night-caliber performance.

Says here the veteran gets it to deep water and wins it.

Prediction: Gastelum by unanimous decision

Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque

Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor

This is an awesome fight—and one I called for after Kevin Holland beat Gunnar Nelson in March.

Both Holland and Luque are incredibly dangerous on the feet and very underrated in terms of submissions. That would ordinarily give the impression that somebody is going to get finished, but these two are so evenly matched that they will go the distance.

Who wins? It will be razor close, with some big moments for both men, and Luque doing just a little more. 

Prediction: Luque by unanimous decision 

Lyle Fitzsimmons

As the years have gone by, it seems Holland and Luque have essentially become the same guy.

Neither is on a bona fide championship level, but both can be counted on to hover in the lower tier of the rankings and present mostly entertaining fights.

Holland is either super-interesting or super-dull, and I feel he's due for the latter here. Look for a viral highlight.

Prediction: Holland by KO, Rd. 1