Bold Player and Series Predictions for Pacers vs. Thunder 2025 NBA Finals

The 2025 NBA Finals are set. Everything has led to this matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder. And now it's here.

We'll get to see one of the league's most exciting, run-and-gun offenses led by a superstar in the middle of a breakout in the Pacers and Tyrese Haliburton.

And he's leading his attack into an all-time great defense that helped the Thunder set single-season records for point differential, total double-digit wins and total 15-point wins.

This is very much an "unstoppable force meets immovable object" type of series, only the side with the immovable object might be unstoppable on offense, too.

Does Indiana have a chance against the biggest regular-season juggernaut we've seen since the peak Golden State Warriors? Did OKC already face its stiffest test in the second round?

Below, we'll break it all down with a series of bold predictions about the players and teams involved.

Tyrese Haliburton Will Average 10 Assists (and Over 2 Turnovers)

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This may not seem all that bold, but few playmakers of Haliburton's ilk turn the ball over as rarely as he does.

In both the regular season and playoffs, he's under two giveaways per game. In three different outings this postseason, he finished with zero.

But this Thunder defense is nothing like anything Haliburton saw on his side of the bracket.

Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso will play with such over-the-top physicality that officials will swallow their whistles on a lot of potential calls in an effort to avoid grinding the game to a halt.

The way OKC establishes the tone of games in that way is a huge strength. And though it won't completely rattle Haliburton, it will throw him off enough to turn the ball over more than he regularly does.

The Thunder probably won't average quite as many steals as they did in the first three rounds (10.8), but they'll still force Indiana and Haliburton into more mistakes than they typically make.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Will Average 33 Points (and 10 Free-Throw Attempts)

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring is down a bit in the playoffs, but during this series, he's going to get back to his regular-season average 32.7 points per game.

Actually, let's just say he gets to 33, for good measure.

Once he does, SGA will be in a pretty exclusive club of scorers who averaged 33-plus in a single Finals.

• Allen Iverson
• Dwyane Wade
• Elgin Baylor (twice)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Jerry West (thrice)
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
• Kevin Durant
• LeBron James (thrice)
• Michael Jordan (thrice)
• Rick Barry
• Shaquille O'Neal (thrice)

And he'll join that illustrious list for a few reasons.

First, Indiana has some stout perimeter defenders in Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard. But the former looks a little slower since injuring his ankle against the New York Knicks, and both play a physical brand of defense that could help SGA generate trips to the free-throw line.

Gilgeous-Alexander will also simply sense the moment. He's on the verge of one of the best guard seasons in NBA history. He already has a scoring title, the MVP, 68 regular-season wins and the single-season record for team point differential. Capping that with a Finals MVP will put him firmly in the history books.

Pacers Will Cool Off From Three

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The Pacers shot 39.0 percent from deep in the conference finals and are at a league-leading 40.1 for the entire postseason.

Haliburton's drive-and-kick game and everyone else's willingness to generally keep the ball popping throughout offensive possessions has led to lots of open looks. And Indiana's finishers are cashing in.

But OKC's defense rotates out to shooters better than anyone Indiana has faced in the playoffs. Seemingly open looks turn into contested ones awfully fast against the Thunder.

OKC opponents are shooting 33.1 percent from deep this postseason. And while Indiana probably won't come in that low, the Thunder will pull their playoff-long mark down a bit.

And Jalen Williams Will Heat Up

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J-Dub has been his characteristically stellar self on defense this postseason. His playmaking has kept opposing defenses on their heels, too. His 5.3 assists trails only SGA's 6.9 among Thunder players in the playoffs.

But Williams is shooting just 31.8 percent from three over these 16 games, and he's had three different outings with fewer than 15 points.

On balance, Williams has been a massive plus for a team that mostly breezed through the West, but we've seen more dynamic stretches from him as a scorer. And he's about to have another one in the Finals.

With Indiana forced to throw a ton of defensive attention at SGA, Williams will take advantage of open three-point looks, scrambled defenses and switches. His three-point percentage will come closer to his career mark of 38.2, and he'll get to 20 points in every game in the series.

Pascal Siakam Will Force OKC to Play Small

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Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam just put up 21.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.6 threes and 1.1 steals, while shooting 46.3 percent from deep, against the Knicks.

And his ability to move and attack like a wing, despite typically being seen as a power forward, will force OKC to make a choice about its two-big starting lineup with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Either one, particularly Chet, can probably do a reasonable job on Siakam, but putting Caruso or Cason Wallace in for Hartenstein and sliding everyone else down a position might make more sense.

Williams is big enough to contend with Siakam inside, while also having the lateral quickness to stick with him outside. Dort, Caruso (or Wallace) and SGA can certainly hold their own against the rest of the non-center matchups, too.

Siakam will still have some big nights. And OKC will probably still start most games with Holmgren and Hartenstein. But expect the smaller groups early and often.

OKC Won't Lose a Game, and SGA Will Win Finals MVP

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The Pacers are a fun team and a great story. They have one of the best lead playmakers in the world. They have an all-time great coach. They play a brand of basketball that keeps the ball and players moving.

They're an underdog worth rooting for.

But they're also about to run into the most statistically dominant team the NBA has ever seen.

Beyond the records mentioned above, the Thunder are 8-1 at home this postseason. They've won those eight games by an average of 27.9 points. They're going to jump on the Pacers in the opening two games of the series in a way that will demoralize them.

And though they'll bounce back to a degree in Indiana, the Thunder just have too many weapons on both sides of the ball to be seriously threatened in this series.

The Pacers' home games will be competitive, but OKC is going to cap off this championship run with a sweep. And SGA will be on stage after Game 4, hoisting a Finals MVP that will cement this as one of the best team and individual seasons ever.