Updated 2025 NBA Playoff Bracket Predictions
Nearly a week into the 2025 NBA playoffs, and we're starting to get a slightly clearer picture of how things might shake out between now and the Finals in June.
The Oklahoma City Thunder look utterly dominant. The Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors are already banged up. And the Los Angeles Lakers lost home-court advantage in a first-round series they were favored to win.
With all the lessons we've learned over the last several days, it's time to readjust our expectations, break out the crystal ball and lay out every series result between now and the championship parade.
Eastern Conference 1st Round
1 of 7
Cavaliers (2) Will Beat the Heat (0)
Two games into this series, the Miami Heat's one hope to keep it competitive—a solid regular-season defense—simply hasn't shown up.
Cleveland is averaging a playoff-best 135.2 points per 100 possessions. And while a late run in Game 2 made that one feel a little closer than it probably was, this series is trending toward an unsurprising sweep.
Celtics (2) Will Beat the Magic (0)
It may have been tempting to view Jayson Tatum's absence for Game 2 as a potential series shifter, but the Boston Celtics had a point differential around that of a 61-win team when Tatum was off the floor in 2024-25.
Boston has one of the deepest, most versatile rosters in the league. And while it'll certainly need Tatum in the later rounds, it can get two more wins in this series without him.
Knicks (2) Will Beat the Pistons (1)
Regardless of what happens over the rest of this series, the Detroit Pistons' 2024-25 has to be seen as a resounding success. They won 14 games in 2023-24, more than triple that total this season and have been in each and every playoff game so far.
But their loss on Wednesday showcased a problem that plenty of young teams have, and it will ultimately doom them: New York has the Clutch Player of the Year in Jalen Brunson, while plenty of Pistons are experiencing the postseason for the first time.
Pacers (2) Will Beat the Bucks (0)
This series feels closer than Cleveland or Boston's, but the Milwaukee Bucks have some serious problems, even as the games shift to their home floor.
The Indiana Pacers travel well, particularly over the last several months. And Milwaukee simply doesn't have enough high-end defenders after Giannis Antetokounmpo to slow down Indiana's high-octane offense.
Western Conference 1st Round
2 of 7
Thunder (3) Will Beat the Grizzlies (0)
The Memphis Grizzlies got annihilated by 70 points over the first two games of this series, then they went up by 29 in the first half of Game 3.
Thanks at least in part to a late close from Luguentz Dort that sent Ja Morant crashing to the floor and out of the game, the Oklahoma City Thunder nearly doubled up the Grizzlies the rest of the way and effectively ended this series.
The sweep feels imminent.
Clippers (2) Will Beat the Nuggets (1)
The Denver Nuggets snuck out a win in Game 1, but their perimeter defense has been torched by Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers all series. And it felt like a dam broke in their 117-83 victory in Game 3.
At this point, it feels like the only real suspense for the Nuggets is what roster moves are incoming this summer.
Lakers (1) Will Beat the Timberwolves (1)
The Minnesota Timberwolves stole home-court advantage in Game 1, but with Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves and LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers have enough firepower to get it back and eventually win the series.
Luka, specifically, has averaged 32.9 points, 9.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists over seven career playoff games against the T-Wolves.
Rockets (1) Will Beat the Warriors (1)
This series swung dramatically on one unfortunate play in Game 2, when Amen Thompson seemingly lost his balance going for a rebound, clipped Jimmy Butler out of midair and sent the Golden State Warriors' star to the injury report with a pelvic contusion.
If Butler is out for even a game or two, the Warriors may not be able to recover. Before Golden State acquired him, it was 25-25 with a negative net rating.
Eastern Conference Semifinals
3 of 7
Cavaliers Will Beat the Pacers
The Cavs will have more of a fight on their hands with Indiana than they do with Miami, but they should still win this series relatively comfortably.
The Pacers' defense is far more respectable than it was in 2023-24, but it still doesn't have enough impact players on that end to slow down all of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley in four out of seven games.
The series will turn into a shootout, and Tyrese Haliburton generates enough offense to win a couple of those games, but "Cleveland in six" feels like a safe prediction.
Celtics Will Beat the Knicks
The Knicks seem almost tailor-made to face the Celtics. Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby can make life difficult for Boston's star wings. And the Jalen Brunson-Karl-Anthony Towns two-man game will be a real stress test for the Boston defense.
But they can't match the Celtics' depth. And seemingly tailoring their roster to face them could create some advantages for Boston, too.
Jaylen Brown, Tatum and Derrick White are capable of winning the battle on the wings. White and Jrue Holiday are well-equipped to defend Brunson. And Al Horford and Kristaps Porziņģis will force KAT into a couple off-shooting nights. Plus, when these games go to the reserves, Boston should have a significant edge.
Thanks to the Celtics' depth, championship experience and the fact that Tatum should be healthy by the time this series rolls around, Boston should be in for another trip to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Western Conference Semifinals
4 of 7
Thunder Will Beat the Clippers
The Clippers have waves of perimeter defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The James Harden-Ivica Zubac two-man game has been a nightmare for opposing defenses. And Kawhi Leonard looks like the full-blown Terminator version of himself from 2019.
Among teams in the Western Conference, L.A. might be the best shot at an OKC upset. But it's not going to happen.
No team is better equipped to deal with Kawhi's isolations and Harden's pick-and-rolls than one with Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort. Behind them, OKC has two of the league's best and most mobile rim protectors in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, who can thrive together or apart.
This defense is nightmarish, and SGA generates more than enough offense to take the Thunder to the conference finals.
Lakers Will Beat the Rockets
A lot of the Lakers' advantages in this potential series are the same as what the Warriors had prior to the Butler injury. L.A. is vastly more experienced. It has more offensive weapons. And at least in theory, it can counter Houston's size and physicality with versatility and shooting.
All of that points to a Lakers victory, though it won't be easy. And it's that disparity in the frontcourt that could give the Rockets a shot at the upset.
Particularly when they play that double-big lineup with Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams, Houston can bludgeon anyone (including the Lakers) on the boards.
All those extra possessions will create a bit of a math problem for L.A., but not enough of one to overcome the fact that the Lakers have three different offensive superstars who can completely take over a game.
Eastern Conference Finals
5 of 7
Celtics Will Beat the Cavaliers
This potential conference finals between Boston and Cleveland has seven-game series written all over it.
The reigning champion Celtics and Cavaliers finished the regular season 30th and 19th, respectively, in NBA history in simple rating system (SRS combines point differential with strength of schedule). Both have multiple All-NBA candidates. Both have offenses that ranked in the top three this season.
Assuming both teams take care of business in the first two rounds, they will represent both sides of a true clash of titans in the conference finals.
Boston, ultimately, should have the edge in this series, though. Beyond the experience gap generated (at least in part) by last season's title run, the Celtics have a better, more versatile defense.
White and Holiday look like a near-ideal backcourt to deal with Mitchell and Garland. Horford, Porziņģis and even Tatum and Brown can neutralize—at least to an extent—Mobley and Allen.
And all of those Boston defenders should be enough to secure four wins out of seven chances.
Western Conference Finals
6 of 7
Thunder Will Beat the Lakers
This is another series in which the Lakers would have a pretty significant advantage in terms of playoff experience. And Luka Dončić just pulled off an upset over the Thunder with his Dallas Mavericks last year.
But OKC looks like a team of destiny right now. It finished 2024-25 with the best single-season SRS of all time. It had the most double-digit wins in a season in NBA history. Its defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) was seven full points better than the league average. And it had eight rotation players ranked in the 88th percentile or better in defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices).
Perhaps most importantly, the Thunder have an all-time great scoring virtuoso going up against a team whose best perimeter defenders might be Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent. With all due respect to both, they're not cut out to stop SGA.
The potential explosiveness of an attack led by Luka, LeBron and Reaves is probably good for a couple of games in this series, but OKC should still win in six.
NBA Finals
7 of 7
Celtics Will Beat the Thunder
Now, having said all that about the juggernaut Thunder, the NBA Finals is where their lack of experience will finally catch up to them, much like it once did for the team they'll be facing.
In the 2022 Finals, there was a real argument that the Celtics had a better roster than the Warriors, but the institutional experience, grit and know-how that came from Golden State's three championships put it over the top in that series.
That should now show up on the side of Boston in 2025, but that's not the only reason to pick it for the championship.
Tatum and Brown can both dominate an entire series. The Celtics' three-point volume is enough of a cheat code to neutralize OKC's defense. And the number of plus defenders Boston has to throw at SGA can at least slow him down.
The Thunder are more than talented enough to give the Celtics a long series, but the crystal ball tells us Boston is about to repeat as champions for the first time since the 1960s.
