Predictions for Kevon Looney's Rookie Year with Golden State Warriors
Floor time could be hard to find during Kevon Looney's rookie run with the Golden State Warriors.
If medical issues don't force him out of the equation, then the team's championship-caliber depth could.
Not that the Warriors would be hurt—or even mind—if their newest addition struggled to step inside the lines. Fresh off their first world title since 1975, the Dubs didn't enter the draft in search of an immediate contributor.
.png?w=256)
"With our roster, the way it's constructed, it'd be hard for anybody we draft to get a chance to crack the rotation," general manager Bob Myers said, per Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News. "So if he needs to take some time to recover from anything that might be there, or not, then he will. And we're fine with that."
Looney's health reportedly raised red flags leading up to the league's annual talent grab. As one executive told Draft Express' Jonathan Givony, teams were wary of potential issues with Looney's hip and back:
The hip injury has spawned the most discussion.
In late June, ESPN Insider Chad Ford wrote that Looney's hip would "probably" force him to miss the 2015-16 season. But the 19-year-old feels he has learned how to deal with the ailment.
"I had suffered a hip injury when I first got to UCLA, and I played the whole season with it," Looney said, per Bay Area News Group's Diamond Leung. "I went through the [draft] workouts with it. I still can play now. I can play just fine."
The stat sheet says Looney, the 30th overall pick, is being pretty humble with that assessment. He was far better than fine during his lone season with the Bruins, leading all NCAA freshmen with 15 doubles-doubles, while averaging 11.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game.
That's no guarantee he'll avoid the operating table, but it's impossible to know what the future holds for his health.
Assuming he ducks the injury bug, what should Dubs fans expect to see? A player who potentially fits into Myers' roster vision and works well in head coach Steve Kerr's position-less system.
"He's not really limited, in any way, in regards to what he can't do," Myers said, per KNBR's Dieter Kurtenbach. "You look at certain players, and you realize that they're never going to be a three-point shooter, or that they're never going to be able to handle the ball, or make a pass. With him, you really feel it's limitless."
Looney, who won't turn 20 until February, is as raw as his birth certificate would suggest. That probably means the Warriors will slow-play him out of the gate, possibly deploying him to the NBA D-League Santa Cruz Warriors if he can't find minutes with the big club.
On most rosters, his arsenal would look unique. Despite standing only 6'9" tall, he measured out at the combine with a better wingspan (7'3.5" to 7'3") and nearly the same standing reach (9'2" to 9'3") as 7-footer Willie Cauley-Stein.
But disruptive length is nothing new to the Dubs, which undoubtedly helped lead them to this selection.
Looney utilizes his physical gifts a few different ways. His most obvious strength is rebounding. He's a beast on the offensive boards, posting a 12.2 offensive rebounding percentage last season. That number would have trailed only Festus Ezeli's 13.3 among Warriors regulars, and it would have been tied for 13th overall out of the 241 NBA players who averaged 20-plus minutes.
"Kevon is a freak of nature," said Looney's UCLA teammate Norman Powell, per Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. "His measurements are out of this world. His wingspan. His IQ of being able to go and grab rebounds. I’ve seen him grab rebounds that I didn’t even think was possible."
Looney was also solid on the defensive glass, though not as dominant. His 21.0 defensive rebounding percentage would have landed behind Andrew Bogut's 26.5 and Draymond Green's 22.4.
But one thing about Looney's defensive rebounding that had to stand out to the Warriors was his ability to corral an errant shot and kick-start fast breaks himself. A part-time point guard during his senior season of high school, he has good enough handles and vision to orchestrate transition chances.
Those playmaking chops also show up in his developing face-up game. There's some debate over whether he's a good enough shooter to function as a true stretch 4. On one hand, he drilled 41.5 percent of his long-range attempts at UCLA. But he only attempted 53 triples all season, and he shot an unimpressive 62.6 percent from the free-throw line.
The Dubs don't need Looney to become a Splash Triplet, though. As long as defenses need to respect his perimeter launcher, he can open the floor the same way Green (a career 32.1 percent shooter from deep) did this past season.
Looney also doesn't require a ton of time on the ball to make an impact, which is a necessity when sharing the floor with the likes of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston. Looney put up good numbers on pick-and-pop jumpers (1.05 points per possession) and catch-and-shoot attempts (1.11), per Warriors.com's Brian Witt, so he can produce as both a screener and floor-spacer.
At the opposite end, Looney should blend seamlessly into the switch-happy schemes that helped the Warriors post the league's best defensive efficiency last season.
"Defensively, Looney shows nice versatility, often playing at the top of UCLA's zone and covering ground nicely on the perimeter, contesting shots impressively with his long reach," wrote Givony. "His lateral quickness is solid, and he's able to get in a low stance, which aids him in keeping smaller players in front of him."
The Warriors have a slew of long-limbed athletes to throw at opponents, and their ability to shift through defensive assignments can disrupt an offense's rhythm. Add Looney's pterodactyl-like length to the equation, and this suffocating unit could make it even harder to breathe.
But that addition is going to take some time. The Warriors just secured the championship belt without him, and this team is set to return virtually the same roster next season, minus David Lee (traded to the Boston Celtics, per ESPN's Marc Stein) and Justin Holiday (signed with the Atlanta Hawks, per Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears).
Even after Lee's exit, this roster is crowded. Of the 19,730 minutes played by the Warriors last season, 9,215 were split among eight frontcourt players. The chart below shows how that playing time was divided, and it's hard to see where significant cuts can be made to fit in Looney.
Obviously, Lee's minutes are now up for grabs. But they weren't a big piece of the pie, and there are plenty of ways to disperse them that don't involve Looney.
Green, Harrison Barnes, Ezeli and Marreese Speights could all take on heavier workloads. If Kerr lets his young players compete for the vacant rotation spot, both McAdoo and Kuzmic might have a head start based on their familiarity with the system.
If Looney stays healthy, continues lighting the lamp from outside and bulks up his 224-pound frame, he could play his way into a reserve role. There's a reason the Dubs invested a first-round pick in him.
"Drafting a player like Kevon who has a lot of different skill sets really speaks to the way we play, the way we want to play," Myers said, per Leung. "He could be out there playing 5, the 4 or 3. That's the way we think the NBA is trending, being able to employ multiple skill sets."
Looney, if he even approaches his towering ceiling, will check off that jack-of-all-trades box without a problem. But this was a project pick by a franchise deep and successful enough to make one.
Unless Looney forces the issue in summer league and training camp, the Warriors will keep his rookie year quiet. McAdoo's 2014-15 per-game marks of 9.1 minutes, 4.1 points and 2.5 rebounds are about as much as Golden State fans should expect from Looney's first NBA go-round.
But that shouldn't be an issue for Dub Nation. The Warriors added Looney with the hope he will help their future. Their present is already in good hands.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")