2025 NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions: Who's In, Who's Out?
The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament races are heating up. As usual, this means something different depending on the conference.
East play-in candidates are largely crystallized, with at least one squad set to accidentally extend its season. But the competition is more purposeful in the West.
Select play-in possibilities from the West still have a line to finishing in the top six and assuring themselves a first-round cameo. Others are trying to avoid falling out of the postseason fray altogether. And at least two teams must weigh the benefits of continuing to push for a play-in berth versus pursuing (slightly) better draft-lottery odds.
To make sense of the stakes, we are putting all of the (most likely) play-in contenders under the microscope and rendering a verdict of "in" or "out." If you don't see a team here, it's because they have graduated to a top-six lock or assumption.
Don't worry about keeping track wire-to-wire, though. After going through each conference's team in alphabetical order, beginning with the East, we will wrap up with a snapshot of how we expect the top-10 spots to shake out.
Atlanta Hawks
1 of 16
Losing Jalen Johnson (shoulder) for the rest of the season should technically dampen the Atlanta Hawks' chances of making the play-in. It doesn't.
Cushioning defines the "race" for No. 7 through 10. The Hawks have plenty of it.
Sure, it helps that they have one of the six easiest remaining schedules, that rookie Zaccharie Risacher is catching fire and the offense in general has taken off. It matters even more that Atlanta is nearly 10 losses ahead of 11th place.
Verdict: In
Brooklyn Nets
2 of 16
Stripping the roster of win-now talent and leaning into some more experimental lineupsālong live Trendon Watford and Ziaire Williams minutesāhave not sufficiently repressed the Brooklyn Nets' performance.
They are losing more games than they did to start the year, but head coach Jordi Fernandez has this team competing on defense and moving around on offense.
The end result: A squad that is way more competitive than it intended to be.
Fortunately for those upstairs, the Nets did not reacquire this year's draft pick from Houston entirely for naught. Brooklyn is more than five losses back of 10th place inside 15 games to play.
Verdict: Out
Chicago Bulls
3 of 16
If the Chicago Bulls had any chance of removing themselves from play-in contention, they squandered it with a mid-March romp during which they rattled off five victories across six games. They are now closer to the No. 7 spot than they are to 11th place.
Whether this was Chicago's intention is debatable. Conventional wisdom suggests "Hell no." On the other hand, the Bulls presumably would not have placed such a premium on regaining this year's first-rounder from San Antonio that had top-10 protection if they planned on bottoming out.
Regardless, Josh Giddey is spitting fire, rookie Matas Buzelis looks like he's going to be a long-tenured NBA player, and the Bulls are proving pesky against opponents' secondary lineups. Their reward: a virtual stranglehold on finishing ninth or 10th in the East. Congratulations, Chi-town. Or something.
Verdict: In
Miami Heat
4 of 16
Next year's Miami Heat pick will head to the Oklahoma City Thunder with zero protection if the former finishes inside this year's lottery. That then has a trickle-down effect on their first-round obligation to the Charlotte Hornets from the Terry Rozier trade.
Ergo, the Heat have every incentive to get out of the play-in and make the actual playoffs.
They aren't playing like it.
Miami's penchant for wilting in winnable situations is particular damning. It has blown 19 double-digit leads this seasonāthe most in the NBA, according to āŖKeerthika Uthayakumarā¬, author of the Fun Facts & Red Flags newsletter.
The Heat also own the league's second-worst crunch-time net rating, trailing only the tank-tastic Utah Jazz. And for good measure, among 50-plus players with at least 10 clutch appearances and a usage rate of 30 or higher, Tyler Herro ranks second-last in true shooting percentage.
Oh, right: The play-in. Miami is faring poorly enough to cede the "race" for No. 9 to the Bulls. But it is not nearly bad enough to surrender what is a monster lead over the 11th-place Toronto Raptors.
Orlando Magic
5 of 16
On most nights, the Orlando Magic's offense remains an assault on the eyes. It may end up costing them dearly, perhaps preventing them from entering the Association's best-of-seven bash this spring.
Tumbling out of the play-in picture at least isn't an imminent worry. Paolo Banchero is turning in some peppier offensive outings, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has hit his threes in March, and the defense maintains its hellfire equilibrium.
Mostly, though, the Magic have tons of breathing room. More than seven losses separates them from 11th place.
Verdict: In
Philadelphia 76ers
6 of 16
Try as Quentin Grimes might to ruin the late-season tank, the Philadelphia 76ers are not in danger of stumbling their way into the Eastern Conference's top 10.
Joel Embiid and Paul George are done for the season. Ditto for rookie Jared McCain. Tyrese Maxey has not played since Mar. 3 while dealing with a back injury. This team's play-in odds are absolutely cooked.
We'll have to wait and see whether leaning into the stank pays off. Philly will keep this year's first-round pick if it lands in the top six and has positioned itself for top-five lottery odds. Grab your popcorn. And maybe a blindfold.
Verdict: Out
Toronto Raptors
7 of 16
The Toronto Raptors have turned the dials on their defense to 11 and are still (mostly) playing enough of their top guys to chisel out a strong closing kick.
This could have implications if that doesn't change as they jockey for top-five lottery positioning with Brooklyn and Philadelphia.
On the, er, bright side, the Raptors needn't worry about accidentally staggering into the postseason. They have the easiest schedule the rest of the way but built up enough leeway in the loss column to avoid an inadvertent play-in appearance.
Verdict: Out
Full Eastern Conference Postseason Seeding Predictions
8 of 16
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Boston Celtics
- New York Knicks
- Indiana Pacers
- Detroit Pistons
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Atlanta Hawks
- Orlando Magic
- Miami Heat
- Chicago Bulls
Sincere apologiesāum, I mean, congratulationsāto Brooklyn, Philadelphia and Toronto.
Dallas Mavericks
9 of 16
Play-in? We're talking about the play-in? When on any given night the (hard-capped) Dallas Mavericks are in danger of not having enough players to suit up? Really?
It verges on terrifying that this isn't even a joke. The Mavs are toeing the finest of availability lines.
Reinforcements do not appear to be en route, either. Anthony Davis wants to return from his adductor injury, but people within the organization are trying to dissuade him from doing so, according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon.
For good reason, too. It isn't just about protecting the 32-year-old's health beyond this season; it's that his prospective return doesn't matter.
Kyrie Irving is done for the year. Both of Dallas' other top-three bigs, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, remain on the sidelines. Quentin Grimes is...well, he plays for the Sixers.
Mathematically speaking, the Mavs are in the thick of the push for 10th place. But not reallyāwith or without AD.
Verdict: Out
Los Angeles Clippers
10 of 16
Nearly every fiber of my being wants to Sharpie in the Los Angeles Clippers for a top-six spot. Kawhi Leonard is playing, Bogdan BogdanoviÄ looks more like himself, and the offense is exploring higher highs as a result to go along with the team's relentless defense.
A pretty difficult schedule to close the year coupled with the enduring ups and downs of said offense demands a more measured forecast. The Clippers seem more likely to remain inside play-in territory unless the floor continues to fall out from beneath the Memphis Grizzlies.
Los Angeles at least doesn't have to worry about sliding out of the postseason picture altogether. More than five losses separate it from the bottom of the play-in barrel, meaning this team is closer to the No. 2 seed than No. 11.
Verdict: In
Minnesota Timberwolves
11 of 16
Believing in the Minnesota Timberwolves is not for the faint of heart.
There is a maddening inconsistency to the way they play. Whether it's conceding leads or playing down to the level of their opponents, they're experts in infuriating even impartial bystanders.
Yet, every time you give up on them, they find a way to pull you back in.
Their capacity to hang with the best is tantalizingāand somehow not necessarily telltale. They have the fourth-best net rating against top-10 teams but currently sit outside the top 10 versus all other opponents.
I think this basically makes these Timberwolves the National TV Rondo of basketball teams. That is not a defining trait you look for in a bona fide playoff team and ultimately consigns them to this exercise rather than above it.
Luckily for the Timberwolves, they are about as far away from 11th place as they are from No. 2 in the West. They'll punch their play-in ticket. Nobody should be prepared to predict their survival beyond it.
Verdict: In
Phoenix Suns
12 of 16
Resist whatever (teensy-tiny) urge you have to trust the Phoenix Suns. They have not earned your conviction.
March has seen them play better basketball. If there's anything we know about this month in the NBA, it's that everything you see is totally real and worth assigning value. (This is written in sarcasm font.)
Phoenix's defense too often devolves into flagrant inertia to believe it'll reach and maintain any sort of happy medium. Head coach Mike Budenholzer is also playing what feels like a dangerous game with minutes for Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.
The road forward doesn't get any easier. The Suns have the league's hardest remaining schedule. And considering they have won fewer than 32 percent of their games against opponents .500 or better, the near-complete absence of any buffer between them and 11th or even 12th place renders them an unsafe bet to delay the inevitable end to their disastrous season.
Verdict: Out
Portland Trail Blazers
13 of 16
Many will be hesitant to buy the Portland Trail Blazers as a play-in team. They aren't supposed to be one, which theoretically increases the likelihood they punt on the chase. And for as hopeless as the Suns seem, outperforming a team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker down the stretch is a tall order...in theory.
The Blazers are good enough to do it. They have the league's fifth-best defense since Jan. 1, and many of their most-used lineups are trucking opponents, including the current starting five, for basically two months. None of this is a sample size small enough to be considered fluky.
Portland could always decide to pump the brakes. To what end, though? It would be lucky to fall into top-seven lottery odds at this point, even with one of the 10 toughest schedules to go.
Plus, when so many of your most important core players are driving success, you might as well embrace it.
Verdict: In
Sacramento Kings
14 of 16
Domantas Sabonis' right ankle sprain threatens to send the Sacramento Kings into an end-of-season spiral. Then again, they just beat the Cavs while missing him and Zach LaVine. (Cleveland did not have Darius Garland.)
Equally important: The Kings have a sizable margin for error to close the year. They are several games up on 10th and 11th place, and while their schedule isn't easy the rest of the way, it's hardly unnavigable.
Sacramento's regular-season finale against the Suns could be drowning in stakes. But Cleveland (Apr. 6) and Denver (Apr. 9) may not be fielding full-strength products in closing-stretch tilts, and the Kings have three games remaining against Eastern Conference teams who rank outside the top six.
Verdict: In
San Antonio Spurs
15 of 16
Season-ending injuries to De'Aaron Fox (finger) and Victor Wembanyama (right shoulder) make this a disappointingly easy decision.
Granted, the San Antonio Spurs remain close enough to 10th place for us to consider a scenario in which they close the season on a tear and sneak through to the play-in tournament.
But multiple sources tell me Sandro Mamukelashvili will not be facing the Knicks defense every night, so here we are.
Verdict: Out
Full Western Conference Postseason Predictions
16 of 16
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Denver Nuggets
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Golden State Warriors
- Houston Rockets
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Sacramento Kings
- Portland Trail Blazers
Officially excluding the Phoenix Suns' still feels weird. But they have spent the entire season showing us they're either not good enough or not interested enoughāor both.
Investing in a top-10 finish for them, when they have the league's toughest remaining schedule, requires believing both Portland and the Dallas Mavericks will implement evasive play-in maneuvers.
Getting there is easy with the Mavs. They may not have enough bodies to field a team on any given night. The Blazers are scrapping and clawing with players who matter to the bigger picture. They get the nod over a Suns team that too frequently seems incapable of getting stops.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to theĀ Hardwood KnocksĀ podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report'sĀ Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy ofĀ NBA.com,Ā Basketball Reference,Ā StatheadĀ orĀ Cleaning the Glass. Salary information viaĀ Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations viaĀ RealGM.
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