McGregor vs. Mendes: A Complete Guide to Full UFC 189 Fight Card
Is it possible for UFC fight cards to have a playoff atmosphere?
I mean, no. There's no playoffs, so no. But if by "playoff atmosphere" what you really mean is that a certain sporting event has a special, next-level kind of feel to it, then yes.
That feel will propagate when there are two titles on the line and 63 percent of your lineup has immediate divisional implications, as is the case with the bright and deep fight card that is UFC 189, going down Saturday from Las Vegas.
Sure, the headliner lost some luster when Jose Aldo broke his rib. But it's still plenty shiny thanks to Conor McGregor, probably the UFC's biggest non-Ronda Rousey star at the moment, and the interim belt the UFC so graciously procured for the occasion in the absence of Aldo's regular championship strap. And speaking of procuring things, how about Chad Mendes? That's a pretty stiff test for the Irishman.
We'll get into that. But there's also the matter of this other title fight, and there are no interims about it. Champion Robbie Lawler will face a very compelling challenger in the young Canadian fightbot phenom Rory MacDonald.
As alluded to previously, though, six of the evening's 11 bouts feature at least one immediate contender or someone who could become a contender with a win. That is pretty good. What follows is a complete guide to the card, including information capsules, predictions and viewing coordinates for each and every bout. Let's get it on.
Yosdenis Cedeno vs. Cody Pfister
1 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: Yosdenis Cedeno (10-4), Cody Pfister (11-4-1)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Right off the bat, we have some excellent nicknames. In one corner, you have "The Pink Panther." In the other, you have Cody "The Pfist" Pfister, the Pfabulous Pfighter with the Pfunny name.
Unfortunately, I'm afraid the fun might end there. Cedeno has talent in the standup phase but is prone to extended dry spells of activity. Pfister had his own hindquarters handed to him in his UFC debut, a second-round chokeout loss to James Moontasri.
Frankly, neither one of these men have truly shown they are ready for prime time. I'm guessing Cedeno and his underaggression fall victim to Pfister and his penchant for overagression, and also the man with the better nickname. It's as good a metric as any.
Prediction: Pfister, submission, Rd. 2
Neil Seery vs. Louis Smolka
2 of 11
Division: Flyweight
Records: Neil Seery (15-10), Louis Smolka (8-1)
See it on: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Seery is a solid major-league flyweight, but predictions of greatness may have been more a function of The Irish Invasion than anything else.
Let me take you all the way back to the year 2014. Katy Perry ruled the airwaves. The Sochi Olympics were redefining what it meant to be a white elephant. And a young man named Conor McGregor was set to headline a UFC card in a little Irish burg they called Dublin.
And Seery, a tough flyweight from that very town, was set to take on Brad Pickett in his Octagon debut.
It didn't go as planned for Seery. He won twice since his loss to Pickett (including in his home town) but is no longer atop the same green wave that carried him into the UFC as a Cage Warriors champ and a winner of four straight.
Now 35, he's giving up 12 years of age and three inches of height to the 5'9" Smolka. And the Hawaiian knows how to use that advantage, winning all but one of his pro fights and notching Performance of the Night honors in his last bout, an impressive side-kick knockout of Richie Vaculik.
Extended striking exchanges will make this fun and close, but the bigger name in Seery will fall to the bigger talent in Smolka.
Prediction: Smolka, TKO, Rd. 3
Cody Garbrandt vs. Henry Briones
3 of 11
Division: Bantamweight
Records: Cody Garbrandt (6-0), Henry Briones (19-4-1)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
One big punch for a man, one giant leap for Cody Garbrandt.
It only took a single fight for the newest standout from Team Alpha Male to make his mark in the UFC. Thanks to a swift-moving and sharply honed striking attack from Garbrandt, favored veteran Marcus Brimage was beaten long before the ref waved it off with only 10 seconds remaining in the contest.
Afterward, the guy with the "No Love" nickname, the Birdman throat ink, the incarcerated father and the six knockouts in six professional contests gently dedicated his win to an eight-year-old kid named Maddux Maple, who was in the audience with his family after defeating leukemia not too long before. The two had promised each other a while back they would win their respective battles. Garbrandt's victory was simply him upholding his end of the bargain.
Chuck Mindenhall of MMA Fighting describes it this way:
"Maddux, along with his dad Mic, his mother Stephani Maple, and his little sister Makyah, were right there to watch [Garbrandt] hold up his end of the bargain. One of Garbrandt’s sponsors, Todd Meldrum, who owns the restaurant/club Martini 97 just miles from Uhrichsville, flew the family out to be with Cody. When Garbrandt finally put Brimage away, all the promises had been kept.
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So there you go. That's not why Garbrandt is going to beat Briones, of course. He'll beat Briones because he has cement in his fists and Briones is a journeyman who couldn't get out of the first round of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America. But this might speak to Garbrandt's potential for a richer level of popularity.
Prediction: Garbrandt, TKO, Rd. 2
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Cathal Pendred vs. John Howard
4 of 11
Division: Welterweight
Records: Cathal Pendred (17-3-1), John Howard (22-11)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
OK, that last slide was a little long. Let's get back to the brevity, shall we?
Brevity is a new kind of concept for Pendred, who likes to use his massive welterweight frame to grind his opponents to spaetzle along the chain link. Preparation time: 15 neverending minutes.
Howard is not the world's largest welterweight, plus he's lost three straight. Pendred, warts and all, has eight consecutive Ws on the ledger, including a 4-0 mark in the UFC.
Until it breaks, I'll assume it doesn't need fixing.
Prediction: Pendred, unanimous decision
Mike Swick vs. Alex Garcia
5 of 11
Division: Welterweight
Records: Mike Swick (15-5), Alex Garcia (12-2)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Swick is a sentimental favorite here. "Quick" was once a force at middleweight and then welterweight, dating back to his time as a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 1.
For a quick Swick analog, think Carlos Condit. Lots of cardio, lots of kickboxing combinations, underrated (if not dominant) grappling.
Of course, we have to factor in that Swick is a loser in three of his last four, and the fact he most recently fought in 2012 because of various injuries. So we have a pretty rusty guy on our hands.
Swick is now the owner and CEO of an American Kickboxing Academy gym in Phuket, Thailand. So it's not like he has no Plan B for himself. I want to talk myself into a Swick comeback (and his charming YouTube series, imaginatively titled The Comeback, is contributing to that desire), but I don't see it happening. Garcia, a Tristar Gym trainee, is well-rounded, young, hungry and heavy-handed. Saturday is where the dream meets reality.
Prediction: Garcia, unanimous decision
Matt Brown vs. Tim Means
6 of 11
Division: Welterweight
Records: Matt Brown (21-13), Tim Means (24-6-1)
See it on: Fox Sports 1
Brown, when he is fighting in a cage, is a very aggressive person. Even more so than the average person fighting in a cage, and that's saying a lot. He knows how to push through open space or initiate a clinch and connect with his brutally artless muay thai.
Johny Hendricks showed at UFC 185 that wrestling remains a relative weakness for Brown. Means is no All-American but he knows how to grapple. However, there are more similarities here than differences. Both men are headhunters and will bite down on the mouth guards. That's why it's the pay-per-view lead-in, after all.
It's also my pick for Fight of the Night. By virtue of his fierce reputation, Brown may be a favorite here, but I like Means. Means is just as, well, mean as Brown, both in space and in the clinch. He has the power and the grappling to bully the bully. And he's a crisp 6-1 since returning to welterweight.
So I want you to do something for me right now. I want you to ring the bell. I want you to sound the alarms. The upset alarms. Welcome to the big time, Tim Means.
Prediction: Means, submission, Rd. 2
Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida
7 of 11
Division: Bantamweight
Records: Brad Pickett (25-10), Thomas Almeida (18-0)
See it on: Pay-per-view
I imagine we may all need a bit of a breather after Means-Brown. In the pay-per-view opener, we'll have a well-known veteran in Pickett attempting to head off the rise of one of the UFC's hottest prospects, in this or any other division.
Pickett will not be successful.
Almeida, who was named the No. 4 overall prospect of 2014 in our very own Beaten Path MMA prospect rankings, can and does do it all. The 23-year-old Chute Boxe protege can knock you out in any number of ways, he can submit you and he is aggressive. Pickett will not have a great deal of recourse.
If you don't know now, you'll know on Saturday around 10:15 p.m. ET.
Prediction: Almeida, TKO, Rd. 1
Gunnar Nelson vs. Brandon Thatch
8 of 11
Division: Welterweight
Records: Gunnar Nelson (13-1-1), Brandon Thatch (11-2)
See it on: Pay-per-view
Ah, the old striker-grappler matchup. And the fourth of five welterweight contests on this UFC 189 fight card. Neat stat, I know. I'm a stats guy.
Thatch and Nelson do share one thing: They've each had big momentum stops lately. After taking the division by storm with two straight striking stoppages, Thatch missed more than a year with a toe injury and then lost in the fourth round to Benson Henderson in February. Nelson is fresh off the first loss of his career, a bullying at the heavy hands of Rick Story.
Thatch, the striker, is pretty doggone terrific. If the two fighters stay on the feet for any length of time, he could really pick Nelson apart. And he has the strength and aggression to finish.
Nelson, the grappler, is also terrific. He prefers to let the fight come to him, and with Thatch, it will. Nelson, a brilliant ground fighter, sometimes struggles to make things happen, be it in a standing exchange or with a takedown that gets things into his wheelhouse. Against a huge welterweight in Thatch, that struggle will be too much to overcome.
Prediction: Thatch, TKO, Rd. 2
Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens
9 of 11
Division: Featherweight
Records: Dennis Bermudez (15-4), Jeremy Stephens (23-11)
See it on: Pay-per-view
I hope that after this fight, Bermudez will no longer be slept upon.
Unfortunately for Bermudez, his last fight only increased the slumber. That's because in the first round, Ricardo Lamas choked him out. Very funny stuff.
I'm thinking he'll get his groove back against Stephens, who is a bit underrated. He remains one of the hardest punchers, pound for pound, in the UFC today. And he's still only 29.
But the mountain ram of a featherweight that is Dennis Bermudez should be able to impose his will. That means getting inside on Stephens, absorbing punishment as effectively as he dishes it out and controlling Stephens on the mat for much of the duration.
Prediction: Bermudez, unanimous decision
Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald
10 of 11
Division: Welterweight (for UFC welterweight championship)
Records: Rory MacDonald (18-2), Robbie Lawler (25-10)
See it on: Pay-per-view
This is going to be a good fight. A very good fight. It's a shame these guys can't sell it (not without cue cards, anyway), but it will be outstanding nonetheless.
As you know, these two first fought back in 2013, with Lawler taking a close decision in a great fight that saw MacDonald come on late.
The loss appeared to be a wakeup call for MacDonald, and no one has gone back to sleep since, with the Tristar phenom winning his next three.
MacDonald is more methodical in his approach than the hard-hitting Lawler, and my guess is they'll again meet in the middle of that spectrum. This time, MacDonald will throttle up on the offense a little more and outlast Lawler to take the decision. We'll have a new champion.
Prediction: MacDonald, unanimous decision
Conor McGregor vs. Chad Mendes
11 of 11
Division: Featherweight (for interim UFC featherweight championship)
Records: Conor McGregor (17-2), Chad Mendes (17-2)
See it on: Pay-per-view
Time to leave the hype behind. Time to forget the images of McGregor using the Irish flag as his bathrobe and so forth. It's almost time to fight.
The head is really saying Mendes on this one. It's hard to believe he's actually the underdog going in. His improved striking and power wrestling game, including that double-leg takedown, make him feel like a favorite, regardless of what the odds say.
So I want credit for going out on a limb and choosing McGregor.
The Irishman is a lot more than hype when the cage door closes. He is evasive in that bladed stance of his. He strikes quickly, his attacks are diverse and they land hard. And he always has that sinister left hand poised to lower the curtain.
"Mendes is one of the heaviest hitters in the division. When he's hurt, he naturally reaches for that wrestling security blanket pretty much immediately, but otherwise, he's relatively comfortable in the pocket. McGregor's reach advantage here is real, approximately eight inches, but Mendes' hand speed is off the charts and he has legit knockout power in both hands. His left hook is probably his best punch, but the straight right isn't far behind.
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Mendes will have a lot more trouble closing the distance than people think. Too much trouble, in fact. McGregor will spray some hard stuff on him at range and catch him coming in with something harder. This fight might hit the ground, where McGregor is a bit of an unknown quantity, but I think he'll find a way to scramble back to his feet and avoid big damage.
McGregor certainly seems confident. According to Brent Brookhouse of MMA Junkie, McGregor made the following prediction for his fight with Mendes:
"I always make accurate predictions. I have predicted many contests. I have my entire career. I predict the future. For me, I have already predicted this contest. At four minutes of the first round he will be KO’ed. I feel that the power matched with the precision, he will not be able to take it. Four minutes he will be done.
"
That's right. It looks like we'll get McGregor-Aldo after all. We'll just have to wait a little longer for it. Now pass that Kool-Aid over here.
Prediction: McGregor, TKO, Rd. 2
All fighter records via UFC.com.
Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. For more stuff like this, follow Scott on Twitter.
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