2025 Men's NCAA Bracket Predictions: Best Picks for Every Matchup

There is no singular right way to pick your bracket for the 2025 NCAA men's basketball tournament.

So just do what I always do and go with your gut.

(Click here to play the NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Challenge.)

Now, my gut has spent months feasting on hours upon hours of games and data, particularly over the past week while putting together this behemoth of a 68-team power rankings. As such, it's theoretically better conditioned for those picks than yours.

If you find yourself struggling with what to do in a certain matchup or you just want to straight-up copy someone's picks for a bracket pool, have at it.

I made these picks in a matter of about five minutes, and after several hours of writing about why I made those picks, well, they pretty well align with the conclusions I would have come to had I spent half an hour agonizing over every selection.

So, follow me into the unknown.

And if you find yourself winning a whole bunch of jelly beans, my DMs are open, yeah? Share the wealth.

First Four

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Texas' Tre Johnson

The Picks: North Carolina over San Diego State, Texas over Xavier, Alabama State over Saint Francis, American over Mount St. Mary's

Budding Buzzer-Beater: Texas vs. Xavier

KenPom No. 43 vs. KenPom No. 44. Tre Johnson vs. Ryan Conwell. Texas has played three overtime games in the past three weeks, and Xavier was practically addicted to close losses earlier in the year. Give us a last-second splash from one of those stars at about midnight ET on Wednesday to send us flying into the "real" first round.

Upset Special: Alabama State over Saint Francis

None of these would be seeding upsets, of course, but Alabama State does rank about 40 spots behind Saint Francis on KenPom, given the lowest probability of winning. We need a victorious moment between Tony and TJ Madlock, though, and it almost certainly isn't happening against Auburn. Would be a great moment in the first game of the dance.

Player to Watch: Matt Rogers, American

What, you wanted me to talk up someone from the big boys who controversially made the tournament? Get out of here and head on down to Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood. American's star stretch 5 went for 25 points in the Patriot League championship, and he might put on a show with some fast-break dunks against a mighty sloppy Mount St. Mary's squad.

East Region

Budding Buzzer-Beater: No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 VCU

VCU leads the nation in effective field-goal percentage defense, while BYU darn near leads the nation on the offensive side of that stat.

Classic unstoppable force/immovable object showdown between teams who have lost once each since early February.

Could/should be the best game of the first round, and not just in this region.

Upset Special: No. 12 Liberty over No. 5 Oregon

Ye Olde Faithful 12-over-5 upset, right out of the gates. Let's get it.

Liberty is definitely at a geographical disadvantage here, playing in Seattle in what is scheduled to be the final tip of the first round on Friday night. And I do worry that Nate Bittle could put up a 40 burger on Liberty's limited frontcourt.

However, few teams in the nation can stroke threes like the Flames do, and that's how UCLA swept the Ducks and how Illinois annihilated them. If Kaden Metheny gets hot, look out.

Player to Watch: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Two of the likely top five picks in this year's NBA draft won't be in the NCAA tournament (Rutgers' Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey), but we could end up with Cooper Flagg (you already know to watch him) vs. VJ Edgecombe in the second round, if the latter brings the noise in the first round.

Baylor came under a lot of bubble scrutiny for its 14 losses, but Mississippi State went 7-11 in its final 18 games, its defense getting torched on a regular basis. Edgecombe and Co. could put on a show in a Bears victory to set up that dream showdown for NBA scouts.

If There's a Cinderella: Montana Grizzlies

Hard to imagine a world in which this Montana defense (rated 250th on KenPom) does anything at all to slow down this Wisconsin offense (rated 13th on KenPom). But maybe this is the year Montana's shooting actually shows up?

Three of the last four times the Grizzlies made the dance, they ranked top 50 nationally in effective field-goal percentage. They were even top 10 the last time they made it in 2019.

They proceeded to average 46.3 points in those blowout losses, including one to Wisconsin in 2012.

But they shoot well again this year and shot approximately one billion percent in the Big Sky championship. Could maybe get into a fun track meet with the Badgers.

Midwest Region

Budding Buzzer-Beater: No. 1 Houston vs. No. 8 Gonzaga

Houston has been so dominant over the past few months, I had decided before the Selection Show that I was penciling the Cougars into the Elite Eight without even blinking.

But when Gonzaga popped up as a second-round matchup, my eyes did twitch a little.

Assuming the first round plays to form, that Houston-Gonzaga game has 2014 Wichita State vs. Kentucky potential, pitting an elite team against a metrics darling that finally seemed to figure something out just before the tournament began.

I do suspect Graham Ike is going to more than have his work cut out for him against this Houston defense and that the Cougars get the job done. Could be an all-timer, though.

Upset Special: No. 13 High Point over No. 4 Purdue

Not even going out on a limb with this one. From the moment this pairing started popping up in bracket projections as a possibility, the entire world was ready to back the Huss Bus if it came to fruition. There legitimately might be more people picking High Point than Purdue here in what figures to be a classic Thursday opening slate special.

We've yet to actually see what High Point can do against a 'real' opponent, the toughest game on their schedule coming against KenPom No. 72 North Texas. But they put up 76 points on that Mean Green defense—more than any other team did all season.

Purdue's defense isn't exactly great, and the Boilermakers are infamously very dependent upon just three players. (And infamous for first-round losses.) If Juslin Bodo Bodo can neutralize Trey Kaufman-Renn even a little bit, giddy up.

Player to Watch: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

If Texas survives Xavier in the First Four, the first-round showdown between Jakucionis and Tre Johnson could be all sorts of electric.

And though I picked Texas to upset the Illini, we all know Illinois is the most enigmatic team in the country, capable of losing by 25 in the first round or capable of getting hot and reaching a Final Four.

To that end, KJ is the star to watch in this region. If he's consistently in his 15-point, six-rebound, five-assist bag and this offense is doing its thing, it could be a two-week or three-week run.

If There's a Cinderella: Troy Trojans

It would be cruel and unusual punishment to Kentucky fans, finally happy with their coach, only to suffer the type of catastrophic first-round exit that wore out John Calipari's welcome in a hurry.

But just about every time the Sun Belt champ gets a No. 14 seed or better, it's a problem.

James Madison won a game last year. Louisiana almost upset Tennessee the previous year. Arkansas-Little Rock beat Purdue in 2016. Georgia State stunned Baylor in 2015. Western Kentucky won a combined three games between the 2008 and 2009 tournaments. And maybe it's Troy's time to join the club.

Troy doesn't shoot well, but it generates a lot of steals. Seems noteworthy with Kentucky missing, like, all of its guards, yeah?

South Region

Budding Buzzer-Beater: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Iowa State

Truth be told, when I made these picks, I had not yet seen the news that Keshon Gilbert is expected to miss the tournament for Iowa State. But they do have two other excellent guards, and if any team in the country has grown accustomed to playing short-handed over the past couple of months, it's the Cyclones. So, we'll let it ride on them crashing the Elite Eight.

That projected second-round showdown with Ole Miss could be something, though. Both teams thrive on forcing turnovers, which could be a major problem for ISU sans Gilbert. Still, Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson should win the battle in the paint.

Upset Special: No. 13 Yale over No. 4 Texas A&M

Yale was no match for the Jaden Ivey-Zach Edey Purdue tandem in the first round in 2022. But the Bulldogs almost upset No. 3 LSU in 2019, did knock off No. 4 Auburn last year and famously out-rebounded No. 5 Baylor in 2016.

And this is just a sweet matchup for a team that already has proven upset potential.

Yale's biggest bugaboo? Giving up triples. Opponents have made 48 more threes than the Bulldogs have made in their own right, and they're a pretty good shooting team.

But Texas A&M's biggest bugaboo? Shooting. Both in three-point percentage and effective field-goal percentage, it ranks 317th in the nation. The Aggies usually make up for it on the glass with elite offensive rebounding, but Yale has a better than plus-200 rebound margin for the year and can keep second and third chances to a relative minimum.

Player to Watch: Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, UC San Diego

If you want National Player of the Year types, sure, there's Auburn's Johni Broome, Marquette's Kam Jones and Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner. All veteran stars who you've probably seen plenty of already this season.

But Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones could be the mid-major star who takes over this tournament, averaging close to 20 points, six rebounds and four assists per game for the year.

If any mid-major is built to handle Michigan's Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin combo, it's the Tritons. They had to deal with the versatile, shot-blocking, 7'1" Bent Leuchten of UC Irvine three times. And the combination of UCSD's year-to-date turnover margin of plus-246 and Michigan's mark of minus-93 should greatly help the underdog.

If There's a Cinderella: Bryant Bulldogs

After his illustrious, decades-long run at Saint Joseph's, Phil Martelli was an assistant at Michigan from 2019-24, during which time the Wolverines defeated the Spartans four times in 10 tries.

And if anyone has a direct line to Martelli for advice on game-planning for Tom Izzo, it's probably his son, Phil Martelli Jr., presently in his second season as head coach at Bryant.

It's one thing to be handed a potential blueprint, but it's another to have the tools to build a bracket-buster. But Martelli the Younger does have a couple of studs in Earl Timberlake and Rafael Pinzon. And it's not like Michigan State is a good three-point shooting team.

West Region

Budding Buzzer-Beater: No. 6 Drake vs. No. 11 Missouri

Buckle up for a battle. Both of these teams play physical basketball, each ranking top 11 in the nation in free-throw rate on offense while outside the top 230 on defense, each thriving at drawing contact while living with committing fouls in pursuit of steals—both ranking top 10 in steal percentage.

Upset Special: No. 8 Connecticut over No. 1 Florida

Everyone is in love with Florida right now, and surely the back-to-back champs from 2006-07 would love nothing more than to ensure Connecticut doesn't complete the three-peat.

But after a rare 2024 tournament in which all eight No. 1 and No. 2 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, let's get back to the annual standard of at least two of those eight teams getting bounced before the second weekend.

Prior to a tough night (and a tougher whistle) in the Big East semifinal against Creighton, Connecticut was very much looking like a team rounding into tournament form. Alex Karaban was finally consistently playing well, the Tarris Reed Jr./Samson Johnson tandem was dominating and they were thriving even without Liam McNeeley doing much.

If that freshman phenom re-emerges while Connecticut's deliberate tempo causes issues for Florida's high-octane attack...three rings, Baldy?

Player to Watch: PJ Haggerty, Memphis

The two-year run Haggerty has been on—last year at Tulsa, this year at Memphis—is something else, dominating to the tune of 21.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.8 APG and 1.9 SPG.

And for as good as he has been for several years, he found another gear in the AAC tournament, including a 42-point special against Wichita State.

At Tulsa, Haggerty did a preposterous amount of his damage from the charity stripe, averaging 10.0 free throws per game. He abandoned that approach for more than a month earlier this season, averaging 4.1 over a stretch of 10 games. But maybe he was just saving his body for the stretch run, because he's back up to 10.8 FTA per game over his last six contests, and making 89 percent of them.

If There's a Cinderella: Omaha Mavericks

Noted this in my "Who Got Screwed?" article shortly after the Selection Show, but you are not going to find a bigger "one of these things is not like the other" situation than the bottom pod in this region where the coaches are Rick Pitino, Bill Self, John Calipari and Chris Crutchfield.

But maybe this is the unbelievable beginning of Crutchfield's legacy?

He has already taken what was a five-win program in each of 2021 and 2022 to a 22-win double champion in the Summit League, and he has one of the most entertaining stories in college basketball at his disposal, this trash can-smashing tradition right up there with Monmouth's Bench Mob from a decade ago on the list of things you love to see.

Can the Mavericks possibly withstand St. John's defensive intensity after a few months in a Summit League where defense is always optional? Well, probably not. Wouldn't shock anyone if the Johnnies are up something like 39-15 at halftime here. But never say never in this tournament.

Final Four Picks

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Texas Tech's JT Toppin

East Region: No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Alabama

Cooper Flagg should be fine by this point in the tournament, right?

If so, not a tough pick, given the way Alabama has been playing "defense" toward the end of its rigorous schedule.

The Crimson Tide love to run, but Duke doesn't get sped up. It's only 70-plus possession games since 10 games into the season was the three-game stretch in which it went for 110 against Illinois, 97 against Miami and 100 against Florida State, averaging at least 1.37 points per possession in each of those games.

Midwest Region: No. 1 Houston over No. 2 Tennessee

First one to 40 wins? Houston has the second-most efficient defense in the nation while Tennessee's ranks third. And while Tennessee does lead the nation in three-point percentage against, it also allows three-point attempts at one of the highest rates in the country.

Will that "luck" hold up against Houston's three-pronged perimeter attack? Or will the Vols be able to do much scoring of their own against the Cougars?

When in doubt, back the team who you know can shoot, and who can own the offensive glass if those shots aren't falling.

South Region: No. 1 Auburn over No. 3 Iowa State

Wouldn't this be great? A repeat of the Maui Invitational opener that ended on a Johni Broome last-second shot?

Everyone is going to be writing off Iowa State without Keshon Gilbert, but let's be real: November/December Gilbert hasn't been around for a long time. If Tamin Lipsey's groin is fine, he, Curtis Jones and Milan Momcilovic can get this team at least this far.

But probably no farther.

Even though Auburn has not been playing its best basketball as of late, this team was a wagon for four months. Joe Lunardi made a joke in one of his bracket projections in early March that the Tigers could forfeit their remaining games and still get a No. 1 seed, and maybe they took that to heart a tiny bit. But they'll be back with a vengeance, and they'll vanquish the Cyclones again.

West Region: No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 4 Maryland

The massive question here is, of course, the health of Darrion Williams (foot) and Chance McMillian (upper body), both of whom missed Texas Tech's final game of the Big 12 tournament. If those two are out, the Red Raiders probably don't even make it this far.

If they're good to go, though, goodness gracious would Williams and JT Toppin vs. Derik Queen and Julian Reese be a great deal of fun.

This is by far the most unconventional of our Elite Eight pairings, but it could produce the most entertaining game.

Give us the really good eight-man rotation over the really good Crab Five, with the asterisk that I'm probably changing this pick if Texas Tech doesn't actually have its full eight-man rotation.

Final Weekend Picks

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Auburn's Johni Broome and Duke's Cooper Flagg

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 1 Houston

Both of these teams are 26-1 since the beginning of December. This really should be a national championship matchup, and one that Houston would love to win to make up for last year's Sweet 16 rock fight played without Jamal Shead.

Toughness would be of the utmost importance for the Blue Devils, which is something that had been questioned about them over the past two seasons. But they do have an awful lot of it this year, even if defensive specialist Maliq Brown is unavailable due to his dislocated shoulder.

The real question here is whether Houston can score in the paint. Maybe LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp shoot the lights out and it doesn't much matter, but Duke is just so good at defending the paint while Houston's big guys just aren't very aggressive scorers. Could be the difference.

Prediction: Duke 68, Houston 65

No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

Both of these teams made it to the 2019 Final Four before falling to Virginia, and they are both more than capable of getting back there again.

Johni Broome vs. JT Toppin could be a frontcourt showdown for the ages.

Tahaad Pettiford vs. Christian Anderson would be some battle between freshmen with the repeated ability to put up big numbers despite coming off the bench.

Dylan Cardwell vs. Federiko Federiko. Chad Baker-Mazara vs. Darrion Williams. Miles Kelly vs. Chance McMillian. Denver Jones vs. Elijah Hawkins. Man, so many great showdowns between deep rotations. I'll be a little upset at this point if we don't get this game in San Antonio.

But I think Auburn is a bit better and a bit more consistent, past two weeks notwithstanding. The Tigers get it done, if CBM stays on the floor.

Prediction: Auburn 79, Texas Tech 77

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 1 Auburn

I don't have anywhere near as much conviction in this pick as I did Connecticut-Purdue one year ago. There are a lot of very good teams out there this year, many of whom don't have a freshman phenom with an ankle injury or three losses suffered in their last four games.

For a while there, though, Auburn was having a historically efficient season, destined to only be second-best in the last quarter century because Duke's was even more efficient. And while one literally and one proverbially limped to the finish line, those juggernauts are still in there.

As far as the matchup goes, Duke won in Cameron back in early December, and it has only gotten better since then.

Specifically, Khaman Maluach is about 10 times the force that he was back then (one shot, two points, three rebounds, no blocks in 15 minutes). Call it a hunch, but Kon Kneuppel (six points on three field-goal attempts in 31 minutes played) would be a bigger factor, too.

Duke gets the win, Jon Scheyer gets his first championship and Cooper Flagg Jordan shrugs when Ian Eagle asks him if he's coming back for a second season. (Before absolutely declaring for the draft a week later.)

Prediction: Duke 81, Auburn 76