2025 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
With Selection Sunday for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament just around the corner, the bracketology landscape is looking murkier than ever.
There's no uncertainty at the top of the mountain, where Auburn is the clear-cut No. 1 overall seed. However, there are six teams with strong cases for the other three No. 1 seeds, there are about a dozen teams who look like No. 6 seeds and you're only fooling yourself if you feel good about any of the last five teams in the projected field.
But that's what makes it fun. Splitting hairs. Reading tea leaves. Going cross-eyed looking at spreadsheets. The only certainty in early March is uncertainty, as we wait on the final few data points of each resume.
With less than two weeks remaining until our final exam, here's how things are currently shaking out.
As a reminder, the projected champion (auto bid) of each conference is based on the current league standings. (In cases where multiple teams are tied atop the loss column, the one with the best predictive metrics gets the projected bid.)
Using this approach, there presently are no bid thieves causing the at-large field to shrink. That may well change during conference tournaments.
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago. (The vast majority of those changes will be centralized on the bubble, given it's finally that time of year.)
The Projected Bracket
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EAST REGION (Newark)
Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Quinnipiac / Southern
8. Vanderbilt vs. 9. West Virginia
Seattle, WA
4. Michigan vs. 13. Akron
5. Saint Mary's vs. 12. Ohio State / Arkansas
Providence, RI
3. St. John's vs. 14. Lipscomb
6. BYU vs. 11. Indiana
Cleveland, OH
2. Florida vs. 15. Robert Morris
7. Louisville vs. 10. VCU
MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)
Wichita, KS
1. Houston vs. 16. Bryant
8. Oregon vs. 9. Gonzaga
Seattle, WA
4. Kentucky vs. 13. Arkansas State
5. Maryland vs. 12. Yale
Milwaukee, WI
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Utah Valley
6. Memphis vs. 11. Utah State
Raleigh, NC
2. Alabama vs. 15. Central Connecticut
7. Kansas vs. 10. UC San Diego
SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)
Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. American / Southeast Missouri State
8. Connecticut vs. 9. New Mexico
Denver, CO
4. Clemson vs. 13. High Point
5. Missouri vs. 12. McNeese
Milwaukee, WI
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Jacksonville State
6. Illinois vs. 11. Georgia
Cleveland, OH
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Towson
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Baylor
WEST REGION (San Francisco)
Lexington, KY
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Omaha
8. UCLA vs. 9. Creighton
Denver, CO
4. Texas A&M vs. 13. Chattanooga
5. Arizona vs. 12. Oklahoma / Xavier
Providence, RI
3. Purdue vs. 14. Northern Colorado
6. Marquette vs. 11. San Diego State
Wichita, KS
2. Texas Tech vs. 15. Norfolk State
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Drake
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Indiana Hoosiers (18-11, NET: 55, RES: 41, QUAL: 49)—Avoided PSU or Washington disaster, likely one win from dancing.
Fourth-to-Last In: Ohio State Buckeyes (16-13, NET: 36, RES: 49, QUAL: 35)—Bubbly Buckeyes finish season with games against Nebraska and Indiana.
Third-to-Last In: Arkansas Razorbacks (17-12, NET: 47, RES: 49, QUAL: 45)—South Carolina loss was ill-advised, but it wasn't fatal (yet).
Second-to-Last In: Oklahoma Sooners (17-12, NET: 53, RES: 47, QUAL: 52)—With four wins since New Year's, Sooners need to rally.
Last Team In: Xavier Musketeers (19-10, NET: 49, RES: 51, QUAL: 40)—X-Men have won 10 of 13, sneaking into the field.
*****CUT LINE*****
First Team Out: Nebraska Cornhuskers (17-12, NET: 57, RES: 49, QUAL: 56)—Looked good two weeks ago, but might need 2-0 finish.
Second Team Out: Boise State Broncos (21-8, NET: 43, RES: 52, QUAL: 47)—Big bubble battle with Colorado State coming up on Friday.
Third Team Out: North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11, NET: 42, RES: 47, QUAL: 38)—Metrics look good enough, but they need a marquee win.
Fourth Team Out: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (20-10, NET: 68, RES: 46, QUAL: 73)—Failed to win at Duke; likely auto bid or bust.
Fifth Team Out: UC Irvine Anteaters (25-5, NET: 63, RES: 52, QUAL: 85)—It's not going to happen, but one can dream, right?
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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No. 1: Auburn Tigers (27-2, NET: 1, RES: 1, QUAL: 3)
No. 2: Houston Cougars (26-4, NET: 3, RES: 4, QUAL: 2)
No. 3: Duke Blue Devils (26-3, NET: 2, RES: 5, QUAL: 1)
No. 4: Tennessee Volunteers (24-5, NET: 5, RES: 4, QUAL: 5)
No. 5: Alabama Crimson Tide (23-6, NET: 6, RES: 3, QUAL: 6)
No. 6: Florida Gators (25-4, NET: 4, RES: 5, QUAL: 4)
No. 7: Michigan State Spartans (24-5, NET: 11, RES: 6, QUAL: 12)
Auburn at No. 1 overall remains comically indisputable, as the Tigers added a 30-point win over Ole Miss and a 16-point road win over Kentucky to what was already a sensational resume.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi put out a bracket update prior to the win over Kentucky and joked that Auburn could forfeit its remaining games and still remain a No. 1 seed. At this point, that might also be true of the No. 1 overall seed. The Tigers are simply lapping the field from a resume perspective.
Duke vs. Houston for the No. 2 and 3 overall seeds is a tough call on similar resumes, both sitting at 18-1 in conferences that very rarely produce a one-loss champion. But Houston is up to seven Quad 1 wins and 16 victories over the top two Quads while Duke is at six and 12, respectively. Duke at UNC and Houston at Baylor on Saturday could shake things up a bit before the conference tournaments begin.
At No. 4 overall, it's pretty hard to go against Tennessee after that big, dramatic victory over Alabama on Saturday. But with games remaining against both Florida (home) and Auburn (road) before the highly anticipated SEC tournament the Crimson Tide—who already have six Quad 1A wins and 17 total victories over Quads 1 and 2—certainly still control their own destiny for a spot on the top line.
After that top five, it's a slight drop to Florida at No. 6, after the Gators lost to Georgia last Tuesday. They did bounce back for a dominant win over Texas A&M, though, and are nowhere near out of the conversation.
After the win over Wisconsin on Sunday, don't sleep on Michigan State, either. The Spartans weren't even in the top 16 of the selection committee's reveal a few weeks ago, but they have been on a rampage since then, beating Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland and now Wisconsin consecutively. Just a ridiculous tear to get up to 10 Quad 1 wins.
And if we're going to shout out the projected Big Ten champ as a candidate here, better at least mention the Big East champ, too.
St. John's (presently our No. 9 overall seed) doesn't have anywhere near the stockpile of marquee wins that others in this upper echelon of the bracket can boast, but the Red Storm are 26-4 with a big road game against Marquette still to come. If they win that one and the Big East tournament to finish at 30-4—after getting jobbed by the selection committee as a bubble team one year ago—best of luck to whomever has to explain it to Rick Pitino if they don't get a No. 1 seed.
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ACC Summary
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3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Duke, 14. Clemson, 26. Louisville
Also Considered: North Carolina, Wake Forest
Biggest Change: Bubbles are popping, but UNC is lingering
We already mentioned last week that SMU was probably no longer a team that needs to be considered a candidate for an at-large bid, and the Mustangs made things even worse for themselves with a loss at Stanford on Saturday night.
Pittsburgh was also already on the brink of dropping completely out of the conversation, and the Panthers bellyflopped their way into oblivion with a home loss to Georgia Tech and a road loss to Louisville. They are now 4-11 since starting out 12-2, and hopelessly out of the picture.
Wake Forest is still hanging around, but definitely did itself no favors with a home loss to Virginia and a close call against Notre Dame. They needed a win at Duke on Monday night to still have a realistic case for a bid, but it would take one heck of a run in the ACC tournament for the Demon Deacons to get into the dance at this point.
But then there's the North Carolina Tar Heels, who just keep winning games while the rest of the bubble collapses around them.
They're still just 1-10 vs. Quad 1, and even that one win (UCLA at Madison Square Garden) wasn't exactly a fantastic one. If they don't beat Duke this coming Saturday, it's going to be tough to make a case for them getting a bid.
Yet, they've won five in a row, ought to stretch that streak to six against Virginia Tech on Tuesday and all of the metrics have ensured they at least stay on the bubble.
Let's see if they can get the desperately needed, season-ending home win over Duke that eluded their grasp two years ago.
Big 12 Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Houston, 8. Texas Tech, 10. Iowa State, 17. Arizona, 24. BYU, 25. Kansas, 36. West Virginia, 40. Baylor
Also Considered: Cincinnati, TCU
Biggest Change: Brutal week for playing on the road
It's always tough to win on the road in league play, but there was an awful lot of home cooking in the Big 12 this past week.
Of the 15 games played, only two resulted in a win for the road team.
One of those was BYU remaining a blistering inferno for a 10-point road win over an already dead and buried Arizona State team. BYU proceeded to pummel West Virginia in Provo on Saturday night, and those days of worrying whether it will even be possible to put the Cougars on an 8/9 seed line because of their "no Sunday games" rule seem like ancient history, as they continue to climb the seed list.
The other road win was Texas Tech beating Kansas in Phog Allen on an afternoon where the Red Raiders had a very clear gameplan to make it rain threes. They shot 15-for-43, relying on that deep ball like never before. But it worked, as Kansas couldn't hit much of anything of its own.
Beyond that, it was win after win for the home team, which was bad news for the Big 12 teams who were still clinging to fleeting hopes of an at-large bid. Utah lost at Arizona, Cincinnati lost at Houston, TCU lost at West Virginia and Kansas State lost at UCF. The Horned Frogs might still have a shot if they can beat Baylor and Colorado this week, but that whole tier is likely toast at this point.
Big East Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. St. John's, 21. Marquette, 31. Connecticut, 34. Creighton, 48. Xavier
Also Considered: Villanova
Biggest Change: Xavier smokes Creighton, climbs into the field
For the longest time, Xavier just kept hanging around the outskirts of the bubble; never a serious candidate for a spot in the field, but a constant fixture in the "Also Considered" department, one big win away from becoming a legitimate at-large option.
And in Saturday's showdown with Creighton, the X-Men scored a pretty big win while all sorts of other bubble teams took an L.
At home against NET No. 38 Creighton wasn't quite a Quad 1 win, so they're still only 1-9 against that group of teams. But that 83-61 blowout of a tournament-bound team was a statement all the same, providing a considerable boost to the predictive metrics while certainly not hurting their resume metrics.
Will that one marquee road win over Marquette be enough in the end?
All Xavier has left before the Big East tournament is a road game against Butler and a home game against Providence, neither of which is going to move the needle in a good way. But if the Musketeers get through those two and end the season at 21-10 with the aforementioned Marquette win, home games over Connecticut and Creighton and just the one loss outside of Quad 1 (at Georgetown)...
That's not too shabby on this year's bubble.
An immediate exit from the Big East tournament might leave them at the mercy of bid thieves, but their chances of dancing look a whole lot better than they did a week ago.
Not for nothing: That Creighton-Xavier game was the only loss suffered by any of St. John's, Marquette, Connecticut, Creighton, Xavier or Villanova in the past seven days. That's a good formula for avoiding a repeat of last year's three-bid disaster.
Big Ten Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 7. Michigan State, 11. Wisconsin, 12. Purdue, 16. Michigan, 20. Maryland, 23. Illinois, 29. Oregon, 30. UCLA, 44. Indiana, 45. Ohio State
Also Considered: Nebraska, Northwestern
Biggest Change: Indiana avoids disaster; Nebraska doesn't
In last week's projection, both Indiana and Nebraska were among our last five teams in the field, the Hoosiers playing their way into the picture with a big win over Purdue while the Cornhuskers were sliding toward the cutline after a 17-point loss at Penn State.
Both of those Big Ten bubble teams were just hoping to avoid disaster this week.
Indiana hosted 17th-place Penn State before traveling out west to take on 18th-place Washington, and it did take care of business.
With Malik Reneau (illness) a late scratch for the game against the Nittany Lions, the first game wasn't pretty, but they shot 10-for-15 from three-point range and scraped out a win. Reneau was back out there against the Huskies, going for 22 points in a game that was never close.
A win at Oregon on Tuesday or at home against Ohio State on Saturday would put the Hoosiers in solid shape for a bid heading into the Big Ten tournament.
Nebraska, on the other hand, just had a home game against what was 15th-place Minnesota, but lost it on a last second triple by Brennan Rigsby. The Huskers trailed by as many as 19 before battling back for a result with major "almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades" vibes.
Earlier wins over Oregon (road), Creighton (road), Illinois (home), UCLA (home), Indiana (home) and Ohio State (home) haven't gone anywhere for Nebraska, but the overall state of this resume after three straight losses isn't great. Tuesday's game at Ohio State is probably a de facto elimination game for the loser. But even if they win that one, the Huskers better make sure to win the season finale at home against Iowa, too.
SEC Summary
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13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 4. Tennessee, 5. Alabama, 6. Florida, 13. Texas A&M, 15. Kentucky, 18. Missouri, 27. Mississippi State, 28. Ole Miss, 32. Vanderbilt, 43. Georgia, 46. Arkansas, 47. Oklahoma
Also Considered: Texas
Biggest Change: Holy bubble shakeup, Batman
From what was a quintet of SEC teams on the bubble one week ago, the only one that didn't really move in either direction was Arkansas. The Razorbacks scored a nice overtime win over Texas on Wednesday, but followed it up with an embarrassing loss at South Carolina, trailing by as many as 35 points in that one. Combining a high Quad 2 win with a high Quad 2 loss didn't change much for them, though.
Vanderbilt, however, moved the needle in a gigantic way, winning at Texas A&M (in one of the ugliest, longest games of this entire season) before also knocking off Missouri in overtime. Tyler Nickel hit seven threes in the former and the game-tying triple at the regulation buzzer in the latter, playing a huge role in the Commodores very likely locking up a bid. Hard to imagine that losses to Arkansas and Georgia this week would do enough damage to destroy what they've built.
Speaking of Georgia, what a huge week for the Dawgs, upsetting Florida before destroying Texas in Austin. Georgia was our fifth team out one week ago, but that was quite the season-changing week. If the Bulldogs can do what Arkansas didn't and get a win at South Carolina on Tuesday night, that should seal the deal.
Now for the other side of the coin...
As noted above, Texas lost to both Arkansas and Georgia this week, dropping to 16-13 overall. Though we've seen 14-loss and 15-loss teams make the NCAA tournament before, most of those teams had truly marquee wins. Texas has some nice home wins over Missouri, Kentucky and Texas A&M, but not enough good to outweigh that many L's. The Longhorns need to beat both Mississippi State and Oklahoma this week to have a chance.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma let two major opportunities slip through its fingers, losing by one to Kentucky and by three at Ole Miss in falling to 4-12 in SEC play. Conference record isn't supposed to matter, and the Sooners did go 13-0 in non-league play with neutral-site wins over Arizona, Michigan and Louisville, but it is getting tough to justify having this team in the field right now. They finish with Missouri (home) and Texas (road) and might need to win both.
Mid-Majors Summary (A-10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 19. Saint Mary's, 22. Memphis, 33. Gonzaga, 35. New Mexico, 37. VCU, 38. Drake, 41. Utah State, 42. San Diego State
Also Considered: Boise State, San Francisco, George Mason, Colorado State, North Texas
Biggest Change: Four-bid Mountain West suddenly very much on the table
At least two Mountain West teams getting into the NCAA tournament has been something of a foregone conclusion for a while now, with three bids looking pretty likely—those three teams being Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State.
Out of seemingly nowhere, though, here come both Boise State and Colorado State following back-to-back blowouts of Utah State. (The Aggies should still be fine, provided they win their regular-season finale at home against Air Force on Saturday.)
Of the two, Boise State certainly has the better resume, already boasting home wins over Clemson, Saint Mary's and New Mexico prior to that big one against USU. In every metric, the Broncos are a good bit ahead of the Rams, whose lone Quad 1 win is also one that Boise State has: at NET No. 71 Nevada.
But there's a huge head-to-head game still looming, at Boise State on Friday.
If the Rams can make that their best win of the season (and win the home game against San Jose State that precedes it), they suddenly become more intriguing for a bid at 22-9 overall and 16-4 in MWC play.
If the Broncos take care of business at home, however (and avoid what would be a disastrous loss at Air Force on Tuesday), they're going to enter the Mountain West tournament with a solid case for a bid. They've already won eight of their last nine and might just need to stay hot for one more week.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 39. UC San Diego, 49. McNeese, 50. Liberty, 51. Yale, 52. High Point, 53. Akron, 54. Arkansas State, 55. Chattanooga, 56. Lipscomb, 57. Utah Valley, 58. Northern Colorado, 59. Towson, 60. Robert Morris, 61. Central Connecticut, 62. Norfolk State, 63. Bryant, 64. Omaha, 65. Quinnipiac, 66. Southern, 67. Southeast Missouri State, 68. American
Also Considered: UC Irvine
Biggest Change: UC San Diego's march to a bid continues
As a lot of these leagues wrapped up regular season play this past weekend, we have a few new projected champions.
And given how much we've discussed the quest for an undefeated conference season in this space, it is with sadness we must report that Yale's loss at Harvard on Saturday night ensured that there will be no undefeated conference champions for a second consecutive year.
The big story here, however, is UC San Diego's quest for an at-large bid, which grew stronger this week with a Quad 2 road win over Cal State Northridge followed by a demolition of Cal State Fullerton.
The Tritons are now 26-4 overall with games remaining against Long Beach State and UC Davis which they definitely should win. They'll have a bye into the Big West semifinals, where they will likely draw either UC Riverside or UC Santa Barbara for what could be their 29th win of the year.
Why that's a relevant number is because in the 68-team era (since 2011) of the NCAA tournament, no team with 29 or more wins has ever been left out of the dance. So if the Tritons win their next three before losing to UC Irvine or CSUN in the BW championship, they really should be dancing anyway.
It's not just the quantity of wins, either. They won at Utah State and at UC Irvine, making this much different from when Coastal Carolina was left out in 2011 with 28 wins, none of which came against a team ranked better than 150th on KenPom.
This Tritons squad is comfortably top 60 in all of the metrics, and being 2-1 vs. Quad 1 has to stand out in a fantastic way on a bubble where teams like North Carolina (1-10), Cincinnati (1-10) and Xavier (1-8) are still in the hunt.
Chances are UCSD will just go ahead and secure the auto bid anyway, but let's make sure the "two-bid Big West" bandwagon gets a bit of momentum heading into Selection Sunday, just in case.
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