2025 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
The Auburn Tigers maintained their firm grip on the projected No. 1 overall seed for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament with two more wins in the past week, but it was the Duke Blue Devils who made the loudest, championship-caliber statement with their 110-67 demolition of Illinois at Madison Square Garden.
Duke was also already in great shape for a No. 1 seed, but a loss to the Illini could have been enough to knock them off the top line in what is a crowded race for those top four spots. Instead, the Blue Devils won so emphatically that they presently have one of the highest efficiency margins in KenPom history and feel ever more like the team to beat next month.
While the No. 1 seed debate has been fascinating this season, here's hoping you have some antacids on hand when we get down to the bubble. The argument for expanding the tournament field in future years has always been an unwelcome one, but particularly now, when 68 teams already feels like about 10 too many.
As a reminder, the projected champion (auto bid) of each conference is based on the current league standings. (In cases where multiple teams are tied atop the loss column, the one with the best predictive metrics gets the projected bid.)
Using this approach, there presently are no bid thieves causing the at-large field to shrink, but there are a couple of instances where the team with the best predictive metrics isn't the team with the best league record.
(If you have any questions on what goes into the bracketology process or want to argue about a certain team's spot—or lack of a spot—in the projected field, you can find me on Twitter.)
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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EAST REGION (Newark)
Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Southern / Omaha
8. Utah State vs. 9. Connecticut
Providence, RI
4. Michigan vs. 13. High Point
5. Clemson vs. 12. Indiana / Texas
Providence, RI
3. St. John's vs. 14. James Madison
6. Mississippi State vs. 11. Nebraska
Cleveland, OH
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Robert Morris
7. Oregon vs. 10. West Virginia
MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)
Wichita, KS
1. Houston vs. 16. Bryant
8. UCLA vs. 9. VCU
Seattle, WA
4. Kentucky vs. 13. Akron
5. Maryland vs. 12. Yale
Milwaukee, WI
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Chattanooga
6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Arkansas / Wake Forest
Raleigh, NC
2. Florida vs. 15. Towson
7. Illinois vs. 10. Drake
SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)
Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. American / Southeast Missouri State
8. Creighton vs. 9. Baylor
Seattle, WA
4. Missouri vs. 13. Utah Valley
5. Kansas vs. 12. UC San Diego
Denver, CO
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Montana
6. Saint Mary's vs. 11. Oklahoma
Cleveland, OH
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Norfolk State
7. Louisville vs. 10. San Diego State
WEST REGION (San Francisco)
Lexington, KY
1. Alabama vs. 16. Marist
8. BYU vs. 9. New Mexico
Denver, CO
4. Purdue vs. 13. McNeese
5. Arizona vs. 12. Liberty
Wichita, KS
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Lipscomb
6. Marquette vs. 11. Vanderbilt
Milwaukee, WI
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Central Connecticut
7. Memphis vs. 10. Gonzaga
Procedural Note A: BYU is our No. 28 overall seed and should be a No. 7 seed, but the Cougars get bumped to a No. 8 seed because they won't play on Sundays for religious reasons.
Procedural Note B: Ideally, we wouldn't have Arkansas in a First Four game for the right to face Ole Miss in the round of 64, but with two SEC teams as No. 6 seeds, two SEC teams as No. 11 seeds and two SEC teams in the First Four, there's only so much we can do. Of course, we could see UC San Diego land ahead of that entire Dayton bunch...
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (17-11, NET: 54, RES: 39, QUAL: 49)—May live to regret that 17-point loss to Penn State.
Fourth-to-Last In: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-8, NET: 63, RES: 38, QUAL: 65)—How did NC State loss not do more damage here?
Third-to-Last In: Indiana Hoosiers (16-11, NET: 56, RES: 43, QUAL: 54)—Back from the dead after a statement win over Purdue.
Second-to-Last In: Arkansas Razorbacks (16-11, NET: 40, RES: 46, QUAL: 41)—In just by the hair on their chinny chinny chins.
Last Team In: Texas Longhorns (16-11, NET: 38, RES: 53, QUAL: 39)—Blowout losses to teams on 13-game losing streaks aren't great.
*****CUT LINE*****
First Team Out: Ohio State Buckeyes (15-13, NET: 34, RES: 51, QUAL: 36)—Too many losses; must win two of final three games.
Second Team Out: North Carolina Tar Heels (18-11, NET: 45, RES: 47, QUAL: 42)—They're close, but beating Duke March 8 is a must.
Third Team Out: George Mason Patriots (20-6, NET: 65, RES: 48, QUAL: 67)—Rough second half at VCU, but still a pulse here.
Fourth Team Out: Xavier Musketeers (18-10, NET: 53, RES: 57, QUAL: 48)—Beating Creighton this coming Saturday would be huge for X-Men.
Fifth Team Out: Georgia Bulldogs (16-11, NET: 41, RES: 50, QUAL: 44)—Two wins in last 11; Dawgs hanging by a thread.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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No. 1 Auburn Tigers (25-2, NET: 1, RES: 1, QUAL: 3)
No. 2 Houston Cougars (24-4, NET: 3, RES: 6, QUAL: 2)
No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (24-3, NET: 2, RES: 5, QUAL: 1)
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (22-5, NET: 6, RES: 2, QUAL: 6)
No. 5 Florida Gators (24-3, NET: 4, RES: 3, QUAL: 4)
No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (22-5, NET: 5, RES: 4, QUAL: 5)
Auburn at No. 1 overall remains indisputable. The Tigers are now 14-2 vs. Quad 1 and have opened up a two-game lead in what is maybe the best conference ever. At this point, they could go 0-4 down the stretch and perhaps still hang onto a No. 1 seed. But no sense in hypothesizing any further there, because the thought of this team losing four in a row is laughable.
Beyond that, though, pick your poison, really.
In fact, it's so close from No. 2 through No. 6 that one Monday night result changed things drastically.
Had Houston lost that game at Texas Tech, the Cougars were going to land at No. 6 overall. But with that marquee road win, they vault straight to No. 2 overall. The only real knock against the Cougars is that they didn't get any quality wins in nonconference play. But when you're 16-1 in what is probably the second-best league in the country, it's kind of hard to care about that anymore, as they now have three more Quad 1 wins than Duke anyway.
Speaking of the Blue Devils, they hold steady at No. 3 overall after the aforementioned butt whooping they handed Illinois at Madison Square Garden. Since the loss to Clemson three Saturdays ago, Duke has won its last four games by a combined margin of 118 points.
Beyond that, Alabama is looking good for No. 4 overall after the 13-point win over Kentucky. The Crimson Tide took one on the chin in the 110-98 loss at Missouri earlier in the week, but that was a big bounce back in advance of some inevitable SEC cannibalization: Alabama ends the regular season with three consecutive games against Tennessee, Florida and Auburn.
The battle between Florida and Tennessee rages for yet another week, but Florida holds a slight edge in all the metrics, as well as the "won at Auburn" trump card.
ACC Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Duke, 19. Clemson, 25. Louisville, 44. Wake Forest
Also Considered: North Carolina, SMU, Pittsburgh
Biggest Change: We can probably stop entertaining SMU as an at-large possibility
This year’s bubble is Charmin soft—nauseatingly so at this point—yet, we do need to get to 68 teams somehow.
Even so, at a certain point, you have to actually beat a team worth a darn to be considered worth a darn in your own right, right? And SMU has now officially blown every regular season opportunity it has had or will have to do just that.
The Mustangs previously lost to Mississippi State, Duke, Louisville, Wake Forest and North Carolina, and they added a never-competitive home loss to Clemson this past Saturday.
SMU is now 0-5 vs. Quad 1, plus a pair of Quad 2 losses. Its best win was either the home game against Pittsburgh or the neutral game against LSU, neither of which is remotely close to the field at the moment.
But because they did win five Quad 2 games and because they presently boast a 10-0 record vs. Quad 3—and because most of their wins have come in blowout fashion—the Mustangs still have tournament-caliber numbers, ranked in the top 55 of each and every resume/efficiency metric.
For all intents and purposes, though, they are now toast, even though we’re keeping them in the “Also Considered” tier. Barring a scenario in which they go 4-0 for the rest of the regular season before upsetting Duke in the ACC tournament, we probably don’t need to seriously look at the Mustangs again.
Big 12 Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Houston, 7. Iowa State, 12. Texas Tech, 17. Arizona, 20. Kansas, 28. BYU, 34. Baylor, 38. West Virginia
Also Considered: Cincinnati, TCU
Biggest Change: BYU's rampage continues
Five weeks ago, BYU’s profile was barely even worth looking at for any reason other than an absence of bad / too many losses. After a Jan. 18 loss to Utah, the Cougars were 11-6 overall, their best win a home game against Arizona State, with no other victories over Quad 1 or Quad 2.
But opportunity was at their doorstep, and they made the most of it. They destroyed Cincinnati. They clipped Baylor in overtime. They won at UCF. And after mid-February wins over West Virginia and then-red-hot Kansas State, they had surged back onto the right side of the bubble, our fifth-to-last team in for last week’s projection.
Then, they annihilated Kansas last Tuesday before a controversial one-point road win over Arizona late Saturday night that polished off a wildly impressive week.
BYU’s resume metrics average was hovering around 50 one week ago, but the Cougars are now 36th or better across the board. And because the beatdown of the Jayhawks was so emphatic, the predictive metrics now paint the Cougars as a top 25 team, too.
Per Torvik’s wins above bubble metric—not the official WAB on the NET, but a fair approximation—BYU has gone from 1.3 wins below bubble to now 2.1 wins above it in the span of 10 games. The Cougars are now quite comfortably in the field, and would probably need to go 0-4 down the stretch to blow it at this point.
At the other end of the spectrum, Baylor only played one game this week, dropping to 16-11 overall via a not-good, Quad 2 loss at Colorado.
The Bears are still in pretty good shape with top 40 metrics across the board, as those 11 losses have come against one of the toughest schedules in the country. But if they were to go 1-3 down the stretch (at Cincinnati, vs. Oklahoma, at TCU, vs. Houston), the sheer volume of 14 losses (plus a presumed 15th in the Big 12 tournament) might be fatal.
Big East Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. St. John's, 21. Marquette, 31. Creighton, 35. Connecticut
Also Considered: Xavier, Villanova
Biggest Change: Marquette drops another one
Remember when Marquette was 15-2 and knocking on the door of a possible No. 1 seed?
Ah, memories…
Since then, the Golden Eagles have gone 5-5, despite playing just three games against foes bound for the NCAA tournament. They lost those three (vs. UConn, at St. John’s, at Creighton) as well as a home game against Xavier and the recent road game against Villanova.
Meanwhile, their best win during that stretch was a road game against Butler, which isn’t worth a whole lot. Plus, some of the earlier results—beating Georgia on a neutral floor, losing to Dayton—are looking less impressive/forgivable than they were six weeks ago. (Though, that 14-point home win over Wisconsin sure is looking nice these days.)
To be sure, they’ve had terrible luck in some of those losses. UConn shot 12-for-19 from three-point range, which is a ludicrous 63 percent. Villanova couldn’t miss from distance, either, going 15-for-26 (58 percent).
The bigger problem, though, is that Marquette’s defense simply isn’t firing on all cylinders, or even most cylinders these days.
After averaging 10.6 steals and 15.1 turnovers forced per game through their first 19 games, the Golden Eagles are down to 6.8 and 11.6, respectively, over their last eight contests, including fewer than 10 turnovers forced in three of their last four. And when they aren’t turning stops into fast-break buckets, they simply aren’t the same team.
They’re still certainly going to make the NCAA tournament, but they’ve plummeted to a No. 6 seed and might not be done falling yet. About a month after looking like a sneaky Final Four candidate, Marquette in its current state feels more like a team destined to lose in the first round.
Big Ten Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Michigan State, 10. Wisconsin, 13. Michigan, 14. Purdue, 18. Maryland, 27. Oregon, 29. Illinois, 30. UCLA, 43. Nebraska, 45. Indiana
Also Considered: Ohio State
Biggest Change: Zombie Hoosiers win another one, climb back into the field
If you somehow hadn't previously heard, Indiana is being led by a lame duck head coach. The Hoosiers already announced a little over two weeks ago that Mike Woodson will be stepping down as head coach after the season.
But while the quest to replace Woodson continues in earnest, he suddenly has IU back in the mix for a spot in the NCAA tournament after another marquee win over Purdue on Sunday afternoon.
Since the impending change was announced, Indiana has lost by three to Michigan, won at Michigan State, lost by four to UCLA and stunned Purdue by 15, securing its two best wins of the season in the past two weeks.
Given how poorly the Hoosiers had been playing prior to that "mutual" decision, it has been a wholly unexpected run, to say the least.
The Hoosiers are now 4-11 vs. Quad 1 with no losses outside that group. It's a nice clean resume that stands out in a good way on this year's bubble, where most teams under consideration have fewer quality wins, a couple of Quad 2 (or worse) losses, or both.
Can they seal the deal, though, by going 3-1 down the stretch? They host Penn State on Wednesday before a trip to the Pacific Northwest against Washington on Saturday and Oregon on Tuesday. They'll close out the regular season with a home game against Ohio State. And against that remaining slate, a 2-2 finish likely wouldn't do the trick.
To everyone outside the IU fanbase, it would be an objectively funny way for Woodson's chapter to end: beating Michigan State and Purdue to claw back into the at-large picture, only to lose to 17th-place Penn State and/or 18th-place Washington and fall right back out again.
SEC Summary
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13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 4. Alabama, 5. Florida, 6. Tennessee, 9. Texas A&M, 15. Kentucky, 16. Missouri, 22. Ole Miss, 23. Mississippi State, 41. Oklahoma, 42. Vanderbilt, 46. Arkansas, 47. Texas
Also Considered: Georgia
Biggest Change: Three desperately needed home wins along the bubble
Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Arkansas entered last week straddling the cut line, the first two projected for a spot in Dayton while the Razorbacks were our first team out seven days ago. And they each began the week with a road loss to a title contender—Oklahoma smashed by Florida, Vanderbilt pummeled by Kentucky and Arkansas at least putting up a fight in a seven-point loss at Auburn.
To remain in roughly the same spots from last week, all three needed to hold serve at home on Saturday against tournament-bound teams.
They did just that.
Both Arkansas (vs. Missouri) and Oklahoma (vs. Mississippi State) trailed at halftime before rallying to win a high-scoring affair. Vanderbilt blew what was a 19-point lead over Ole Miss in the first half, but recovered in time to get a crucial win.
That trio remains perilously perched on the bubble, each with four games still to come, including an Arkansas-Vanderbilt showdown in seven days.
However, it wasn’t all good news for the SEC bubble on Saturday.
Georgia was unable to pull off what would have been a monumental road win over Auburn, falling to 4-10 in SEC play and 5-11 overall against the top two Quads. The Bulldogs pretty well need to go 3-1 down the stretch, which means winning either the home game against Florida or the road game against Texas in the next seven days.
And after a 15-point loss at South Carolina over the weekend, the Longhorns are in dire straits of their own. They’re still in the projected field, but just barely. They also likely now need a 3-1 finish in order to salvage a bid. So, that Georgia-Texas showdown coming up on Saturday feels a bit like an elimination game.
Twelve teams still feels likely for the SEC, but it’s presently nine teams definitely in with five more still trying to punch their tickets.
Mid-Majors Summary (A-10, AAC, MVC, MWC and WCC)
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 24. Saint Mary's, 26. Memphis, 32. Utah State, 33. New Mexico, 36. VCU, 37. Drake, 39. Gonzaga, 40. San Diego State
Also Considered: George Mason, Boise State, San Francisco
Biggest Change: Gonzaga's dancing streak is officially in jeopardy
Gonzaga has not missed the NCAA tournament since 1998.
You know what else Gonzaga hasn’t done since 1998? Suffered at least four losses in West Coast Conference play. But that streak is now over after Saint Mary’s polished off its season sweep of the Zags, who are now very much on the bubble with two tough road games (at Santa Clara, at San Francisco) still to come.
The predictive metrics still adore Gonzaga, presently top 15 in each of NET, KenPom, BPI and Torvik. But with no Quad 1A wins, a 2-6 Quad 1 record and just a 6-8 record against the top two Quads, things aren’t looking pretty.
Gonzaga’s saving grace right now is that the rest of the bubble isn’t any prettier.
In order to exclude a Gonzaga team with wins over Baylor, San Diego State, Indiana and Arizona State, we would need to include a team like SMU, North Carolina, Cincinnati or a 14th team out of the SEC, all of whom have blown opportunity after opportunity over the past four months. For that reason, Gonzaga is still in the projected field with a little room to spare.
Should the Zags drop either of these final two regular season games, though, before also failing to win the WCC tournament, things get iffy in a hurry—especially if we have bid thieves on par with what happened last March. Alternatively, if they lose both remaining games, it maybe becomes an ‘auto bid or bust’ situation.
Between the weak bubble, being Gonzaga and the great efficiency metrics, maybe the Zags get a pass anyway. But this is starting to feel like a possible repeat of 2017, when Wichita State received a No. 10 seed despite entering Selection Sunday ranked No. 5 on KenPom.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 48. UC San Diego, 49. Liberty, 50. Yale, 51. McNeese, 52. High Point, 53. Akron, 54. Utah Valley, 55. Lipscomb, 56. Chattanooga, 57. James Madison, 58. Montana, 59. Towson, 60. Norfolk State, 61. Central Connecticut, 62. Robert Morris, 63. Bryant, 64. Marist, 65. Southern, 66. Omaha, 67. Southeast Missouri State, 68. American
Also Considered: UC Irvine
Biggest Change: UC Irvine takes another L, and Yale stands alone
The dream of a two-bid Big West is on life support following yet another loss suffered by UC Irvine.
Following that 84-72 misstep at home against Cal St. Northridge, the Anteaters now have three Quad 3 losses with just a 3-2 record against Quads 1 and 2. They used to have a resume metrics average in the top 40, but now they're outside the top 50 along with predictive metrics that never much believed they were any good.
UC San Diego has continued fighting the good fight and has now reeled off nine wins in a row. But just about the only possible two-bid Big West scenario still in play now is if neither UCI nor UCSD loses again prior to the conference championship, in which Irvine squeaks out a win over San Diego. But even that might not be enough.
Elsewhere, Akron got smoked at Ohio on Saturday evening for the Zips' first loss in MAC play. That leaves the Ivy League's Yale as the only D-I team in the country that is still undefeated in conference play.
The Bulldogs only have three games left, none of which are against Cornell or Princeton, but all three of which will be played on the road. They'll be at Dartmouth on Friday, at Harvard on Saturday and then end the regular season at Brown.
Even if they finish off the 14-0 campaign, though, there's really no at-large case for Yale, so it'll all come down to the conference tournament anyway.
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