2025 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
This past Saturday afternoon, the NCAA tournament selection committee's top 16 reveal had the Auburn Tigers as the as-things-stand-today unanimous No. 1 overall seed. Johni Broome and Co. did not disappoint shortly thereafter either, going on the road for a never-trailed victory over No. 2 overall seed Alabama.
Beyond that Iron Bowl rivalry up top, the only particular surprise from the top 16 reveal was Wisconsin landing at No. 11 overall, when most were expecting to see the Badgers in the 15 or 16 range. They sure did back it up, though, with a road win over Purdue just two hours later, now looking the part of a possible No. 2 seed.
Already, though, things have changed with added results. And with less than four weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, how does the rest of the bracket currently shake out?
As a reminder, the projected champion (auto bid) of each conference is based on the current league standings. (In the cases where multiple teams are tied atop the loss column, the one with the best predictive metrics gets the projected bid.)
Using this approach, there presently are no bid thieves causing the at-large field to shrink, but there are a couple of instances where the team with the best predictive metrics isn't the team with the best league record.
(If you have any questions on what goes into the bracketology process or want to argue about a certain team's spot—or lack of a spot—in the projected field, you can find me begrudgingly on Twitter and occasionally on Bluesky.)
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
1 of 10
EAST REGION (Newark)
Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Southern/Omaha
8. Connecticut vs. 9. Utah State
Providence, RI
4. Michigan vs. 13. High Point
5. Marquette vs. 12. Yale
Denver, CO
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Utah Valley
6. UCLA vs. 11. BYU
Cleveland, OH
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Towson
7. Illinois vs. 10. Drake
MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)
Lexington, KY
1. Alabama vs. 16. Quinnipiac
8. Oregon vs. 9. Gonzaga
Seattle, WA
4. St. John's vs. 13. Arkansas State
5. Missouri vs. 12. Akron
Milwaukee, WI
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Chattanooga
6. Memphis vs. 11. Ohio State
Wichita, KS
2. Texas A&M vs. 15. Central Connecticut
7. Saint Mary's vs. 10. San Diego State
SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)
Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. American/Southeast Missouri State
8. Creighton vs. 9. West Virginia
Denver, CO
4. Michigan State vs. 13. McNeese
5. Kansas vs. 12. George Mason
Providence, RI
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Cleveland State
6. Maryland vs. 11. Oklahoma/Wake Forest
Wichita, KS
2. Houston vs. 15. Montana
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Nebraska
WEST REGION (San Francisco)
Raleigh, NC
1. Florida vs. 16. Bryant
8. Louisville vs. 9. Baylor
Seattle, WA
4. Arizona vs. 13. Lipscomb
5. Ole Miss vs. 12. UC San Diego
Cleveland, OH
3. Purdue vs. 14. Jacksonville State
6. Clemson vs. 11. Vanderbilt/UC Irvine
Milwaukee, WI
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Norfolk State
7. New Mexico vs. 10. Texas
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
2 of 10
Fifth-to-Last In: BYU Cougars (17-8, NET: 36, RES: 47, QUAL: 30)—Oh look, a bubble team that had an impressive week.
Fourth-to-Last In: Vanderbilt Commodores (17-8, NET: 41, RES: 39, QUAL: 43)—Probably need to go 3-3 down the stretch to dance.
Third-to-Last In: Oklahoma Sooners (16-9, NET: 52, RES: 41, QUAL: 50)—Feels like OU's 13-0 start happened about a decade ago.
Second-to-Last In: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-7, NET: 58, RES: 35, QUAL: 62)—Winning at SMU keeps the Deacs narrowly in the field.
Last Team In: UC Irvine Anteaters (22-4, NET: 62, RES: 46, QUAL: 81)—Be the change you want to see in the world.
*****CUT LINE*****
First Team Out: Arkansas Razorbacks (15-10, NET: 42, RES: 49, QUAL: 41)—Needs to beef up that 4-10 record vs. Quads 1/2.
Second Team Out: VCU Rams (20-5, NET: 34, RES: 51, QUAL: 36)—One Quad 1 win almost offsets the Quad 4 loss.
Third Team Out: Georgia Bulldogs (16-10, NET: 39, RES: 50, QUAL: 42)—Need to get win over Auburn or Florida this week.
Fourth Team Out: Indiana Hoosiers (15-11, NET: 57, RES: 49, QUAL: 57)—Road win over Michigan State kept Hoosiers from getting buried.
Fifth Team Out: Xavier Musketeers (16-10, NET: 54, RES: 58, QUAL: 48)—Would be right on the bubble with a 4-1 finish.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
3 of 10
No. 1 Auburn Tigers (23-2, NET: 1, RES: 1, QUAL: 2)
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (21-4, NET: 6, RES: 2, QUAL: 5)
No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (23-3, NET: 2, RES: 6, QUAL: 2)
No. 4 Florida Gators (22-3, NET: 4, RES: 3, QUAL: 5)
No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers (21-5, NET: 5, RES: 5, QUAL: 5)
No. 6 Houston Cougars (21-4, NET: 3, RES: 7, QUAL: 2)
Saturday's top 16 reveal confirmed that the top five overall seeds were in the exact order that pretty much everyone expected them to be. Selection committee chair Bubba Cunningham said that Auburn was the unanimous No. 1, to nobody's surprise, and the Tigers became even more unanimously the top dog by going out and winning at Alabama a few hours later.
The loss did nothing much to damage Alabama's claim for No. 2 overall, though, and it's not like Duke's resume grew any more impressive with a home win over Stanford. Same goes for Florida's home win over South Carolina.
Throw in Tennessee's come-from-behind home win over Vanderbilt and nothing changed up top since the reveal.
However, we do have Houston jumping from No. 8 overall to No. 6 overall.
The Cougars definitely climb at least one spot following Purdue (No. 7 in the reveal) losing at home to Wisconsin, but that win at Arizona on Saturday was gigantic for a Houston team that was definitely held back in that top 16 discussion by its relative lack of marquee wins.
Now boasting road wins over both Arizona and Kansas to go along with their phenomenal predictive metrics, the Cougars are more legitimately knocking on the door of the No. 1 seed line. And before our next update, they will play at Arizona State, vs. Iowa State and at Texas Tech. If they win all three of those, hard to imagine they wouldn't climb to a No. 1 seed, regardless of what happens among the current top five teams.
ACC Summary
4 of 10
4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Duke, 24. Clemson, 31. Louisville, 45. Wake Forest
Also Considered: SMU, North Carolina, Pittsburgh
Biggest Change: Bubbles popping left and right
With SMU hosting both Pittsburgh and Wake Forest, there were guaranteed to be at least two losses among the ACC's bubble.
Instead of two, though, how about five?
The Mustangs split the two games mentioned above, blowing out the Panthers before losing by double digits to the Demon Deacons. For a team with no Quad 1 wins and possibly no chances left to get one—they do host NET No. 26 Clemson this Saturday, but that might be Quad 2 when all is said and done—that was an ill-advised week. SMU was already on the outside looking in, and now falls farther out of the conversation.
For Pittsburgh, the loss just about extinguished what little hope it has for an at-large bid. Winning out might do the trick, as that would include a road win over Louisville. The Panthers might already be too far gone, though.
For Wake Forest, it needed that win at SMU to at least somewhat make up for its home loss to Florida State on Wednesday, one in which the Demon Deacons relentlessly collapsed, blowing a 16-point lead in the final eight minutes. They were our No. 41 overall seed last week and remain in the field, though primarily because no one close on their heels had a much better week.
Lastly, Stanford lost to Georgia Tech before getting annihilated by Duke. The Cardinal were barely still on the board to begin with, but that seals it. They are now auto bid or bust.
Big 12 Summary
5 of 10
8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Houston, 8. Iowa State, 11. Texas Tech, 15. Arizona, 18. Kansas, 33. Baylor, 36. West Virginia, 42. BYU
Also Considered: Kansas State, UCF, Cincinnati, TCU, Arizona State
Biggest Change: BYU bucks nationwide trend with a two-win week on the bubble
By and large, it was a rough week to be a team on the bubble. We already mentioned the ACC's struggles, and we'll get into the disaster that was the SEC's week on the bubble in a bit.
But after BYU was down and out last week following back-to-back losses by double digits to Arizona and Cincinnati, the Cougars bounced back in a big way with maybe their two biggest wins of the season.
Up first was the road win over West Virginia, which has now dropped six of eight to slip onto the bubble in its own right. It's not quite a Quad 1A win, but a road win over a projected tournament team is always a great one to get. Freshman Egor Demin led the way with 16 points, but it was Mihailo Boskovic with the dagger and-one layup in the closing seconds.
The second win doesn't look as impressive in the metrics, but beating Kansas State in its current state is one heck of a feat. The Wildcats had won six in a row, including victories over Iowa State, Kansas and Arizona to jump into the bubble mix out of nowhere. However, that bandwagon encountered a great big pothole in Provo where BYU cruised to a 15-point victory.
Now 17-8 overall with no particularly bad losses, the Cougars vault back into the projected field. And if they can get a win over Kansas (home) or Arizona (road) in the next few days, that would be the feather in the cap that this resume has been missing.
Big East Summary
6 of 10
4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 16. St. John's, 17. Marquette, 29. Creighton, 32. Connecticut
Also Considered: Xavier
Biggest Change: UConn adds a marquee win and a horrid loss
As great as things have gone for Dan Hurley and Connecticut since rejoining the Big East in 2020-21, two consistent thorns in this program's side have been the road games against Creighton and Seton Hall. The Huskies did get a road win over the Pirates in March 2021, but they were otherwise 0-7 in those games, with both on the schedule this past week.
The first came at Creighton, where Liam McNeeley went buck wild for 38 points and 10 rebounds in a 70-66 win. Ever the lightning rod for viral clips, Hurley left the floor after the game yelling, "Two rings, baldy" at one of the many Creighton fans who were screaming at him all night.
From that euphoric win, however, they went straight to a disastrous, Quad 3 loss to a Seton Hall team that had lost 14 of its last 15 games, including a 17-point loss to DePaul. The Huskies blew a seven-point lead in the final minute of regulation, as well as a five-point lead in the final minute of overtime for a misstep that was embarrassing on multiple levels.
Here's the funny thing, though: For bracketology projection purposes, it's like the week never happened. Adding a Quad 1A win and a Quad 3 loss is like putting a five-pound weight on each side of a balance scale.
Because the Huskies already had a Quad 3 loss to Colorado, maybe the loss did a little more damage than the win helped them out, but they didn't actually move, projected for a No. 8 seed for a second consecutive week.
Fun journey back to that starting point, though.
Big Ten Summary
7 of 10
10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Wisconsin, 10. Purdue, 13. Michigan, 14. Michigan State, 21. UCLA, 22. Maryland, 27. Illinois, 30. Oregon, 40. Nebraska, 41. Ohio State
Also Considered: Indiana, USC
Biggest Change: Michigan surges into first with a few more nail-biters
Over the past five weeks, Michigan has played a total of nine games, eight of which were decided by four points or fewer, two of those in overtime.
But since the one exception to that rule—a 27-point blowout loss at Purdue—the Wolverines have reeled off six consecutive close wins.
This past week, those victories came in the home rematch with Purdue and on the road against Ohio State, as Michigan improved to 12-2 in Big Ten play. Purdue led for most of the former, but wilted late. In the latter, both Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin went for double-doubles while OSU's Aaron Bradshaw fouled out in a hurry, helpless to stifle that Michigan big-man duo.
Even after the win over Purdue, Michigan was merely No. 14 in Saturday's Top 16 reveal, three spots behind Wisconsin and seven behind the Boilermakers. And though a road win over 11-loss Ohio State is somehow still a Quad 1A result, it wasn't enough for the Wolverines to leapfrog either of the other Big Ten teams—as Wisconsin won at Purdue on Saturday afternoon.
Still, they've been charging hard in cardiac fashion, now 9-4 on the season (9-1 in Big Ten play) in games decided by four points or fewer.
Michigan is presently 6-2 vs. Quad 1. Among teams that have played at least three Quad 1 games, only Auburn (14-2) has a better winning percentage than the Wolverines.
A rivalry win over Michigan State this coming Friday could be what boosts Michigan up into No. 2 seed territory.
SEC Summary
8 of 10
12 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 2. Alabama, 4. Florida, 5. Tennessee, 7. Texas A&M, 12. Kentucky, 19. Missouri, 20. Ole Miss, 25. Mississippi State, 38. Texas, 43. Vanderbilt, 44. Oklahoma
Also Considered: Arkansas, Georgia
Biggest Change: A disastrous week for the SEC bubble, especially Oklahoma
Seven days ago in this space, we bemoaned what was a rough week for the SEC bubble. Oklahoma and Texas both went 0-2 while Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas each went 1-1, with two of those three wins coming against Texas.
Ah, the good old days, when that quintet could win three games in a week.
This past week was not so kind, going a combined 2-8.
At least Texas picked up a big home win over shorthanded Kentucky, and Arkansas took care of business at home against LSU.
Aside from that, though, Texas A&M beat both Georgia and Arkansas, while Missouri defeated both Georgia and Oklahoma. Vanderbilt put up a great fight early at Tennessee and kept it respectable against Auburn, but ultimately lost both games. And before knocking off UK, Texas lost at home to Alabama by 23.
All seven of those games were simply cases of the SEC's upper half taking care of business against the bottom half. Missed opportunities, for sure, but nothing that instantly, individually damaged the loser's case for a bid.
There was the eighth loss, though, Oklahoma falling at home to LSU, in a late collapse for the ages, no less. The Sooners led by five with 20 seconds remaining before fouling a three-point shooter (Cam Carter made both the shot and the free throw), throwing the ball away for no apparent reason, fouling Carter again in the act of making a layup and proceeding to miss the would-be game-tying floater with one second remaining.
That meltdown brought Oklahoma to 3-9 in SEC play and all the way down to the bubble after a 13-0 start that included wins over Michigan, Arizona and Louisville on neutral floors. The Sooners likely need to flip the script and go at least 4-2 the rest of the way, which feels highly improbable with how they've looked lately.
Mid-Majors (A-10, AAC, MVC, MWC and WCC) Summary
9 of 10
8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 23. Memphis, 26. Saint Mary's, 28. New Mexico, 34. Utah State, 35. Gonzaga, 37. San Diego State, 39. Drake, 47. George Mason
Also Considered: VCU, San Francisco, Dayton, Boise State
Biggest Change: A-10 and WCC hopefuls go a combined 10-1
ACC bubble? Not good.
SEC bubble? Falling apart at the seams.
But the mid-major bubble has made the most of that vacuum with a strong run through February.
In the A-10, George Mason pushed its winning streak to 11 games against Saint Louis and Saint Joseph's, both by the slimmest of margins. The Patriots have slowly but surely crept their way into the bubble mix in advance of a colossal showdown with VCU on Saturday, the Rams also remaining in the at-large conversation with a road win over George Washington.
Dayton might be just about toast at this point, but it also won games against Fordham and Duquesne this week to at least remain on the fringe.
Meanwhile, in the WCC, both Gonzaga and Saint Mary's are rapidly approaching lock status after taking care of business at home this week, the former against San Francisco and Pepperdine, the latter vs. Santa Clara and Washington State. They'll square off in Spokane this Saturday, with the winner probably punching its ticket to the dance. Though, as long as the loser doesn't also close out its regular season with two more losses, they should both be fine.
The lone loss among the A-10 and WCC bubble was aforementioned San Francisco, unable to score what would have been a huge road win over Gonzaga. The Dons probably need to win each of their three remaining games (Pacific, at Oregon State, Gonzaga) to really enter the at-large conversation, but maybe they can pull it off.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
10 of 10
22 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 46. UC Irvine, 48. UC San Diego, 49. Yale, 50. Akron, 51. McNeese, 52. High Point, 53. Arkansas State, 54. Lipscomb, 55. Chattanooga, 56. Jacksonville State, 57. Utah Valley, 58. Cleveland State, 59. Montana, 60. Towson, 61. Norfolk State, 62. Central Connecticut, 63. Bryant, 64. Quinnipiac, 65. Southern, 66. Omaha, 67. Southeast Missouri State, 68. American
Also Considered: Liberty
Biggest Change: Akron and Yale keep the faith, each win two more games
We've mentioned this before, but no one went undefeated in conference play in 2023-24, and the only team to pull it off in 2022-23 was Oral Roberts running the table in the Summit League.
But there are two teams left, fighting the good fight, now within striking distance of that perfection dream.
Akron improved to 12-0 in Mid-American Conference play with victories over Western Michigan and Central Michigan, Nate Johnson leading the way in each with a combined 40 points.
The Zips are the projected favorite in each of their six remaining games, though KenPom gives them just a 23.3 percent chance of running the table. If they can get there, they would become the first undefeated MAC champion since Miami-Ohio went 12-0 in 1957-58. Please start paying more attention to this incredible, improbable journey.
The other team is Yale, which narrowly survived 72-71 vs. Penn before destroying Princeton by a 27-point margin. The Bulldogs are now 9-0 in Ivy League play, with at least a 79 percent chance of winning each of the five games left on their slate. (Overall chance of finishing 14-0 is about 43 percent.)
For the Ivy League, it hasn't been anywhere near that long since the last perfect season. Princeton did it in 2017, Cornell did it in 2008 and Penn did it in 2003. Yale has never done it, though. In fact, Yale has only had one one-loss season in the past six decades, when it went 13-1 in 2016 before that famous first-round upset of Baylor in the dance.
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Lawrence Wants Out of NY")
