2025 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
After a few weeks of wondering whether Auburn or Duke would ever lose again, both title favorites bit the dust in the span of a few hours on Saturday night, the Tigers falling at home to Florida while the Blue Devils lost at Clemson.
It sparked quite the debate over who deserves to be No. 1 in the AP poll. However, neither team drops from the projected No. 1 seed line for bracketology purposes, and Auburn still has a relatively firm grip on the No. 1 overall seed by virtue of its 12-2 record vs. Quad 1.
Duke did slip a bit, though, and it's definitely tough to deny Florida a spot on the top line right after scoring the best possible win a team can get this season, but we'll get into that a bit later.
As a reminder, the projected champion (auto bid) of each conference is based on the current league standings. (In the cases where multiple teams are tied atop the loss column, the one with the best predictive metrics gets the projected bid.)
Using this approach, there presently are no bid thieves causing the at-large field to shrink, but there are a couple of instances where the team with the best predictive metrics isn't the team with the best league record.
(If you have any questions on what goes into the bracketology process or want to argue about a certain team's spot (or lack of a spot) in the projected field, you can find me begrudgingly on Twitter and occasionally on Bluesky.)
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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EAST REGION (Newark)
Raleigh, NC
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Merrimack / Omaha
8. Connecticut vs. 9. West Virginia
Providence, RI
4. Kansas vs. 13. Akron
5. Wisconsin vs. 12. George Mason
Denver, CO
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Lipscomb
6. Creighton vs. 11. Georgia / UC Irvine
Milwaukee, WI
2. Purdue vs. 15. Towson
7. Missouri vs. 10. Drake
MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)
Lexington, KY
1. Alabama vs. 16. Bryant
8. Saint Mary's vs. 9. New Mexico
Seattle, WA
4. Michigan vs. 13. Samford
5. Ole Miss vs. 12. McNeese
Providence, RI
3. St. John's vs. 14. Northern Colorado
6. Clemson vs. 11. Ohio State
Wichita, KS
2. Houston vs. 15. Cleveland State
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Nebraska
SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)
Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. Little Rock / American
8. Louisville vs. 9. Gonzaga
Seattle, WA
4. Michigan State vs. 13. Arkansas State
5. Marquette vs. 12. UC San Diego
Milwaukee, WI
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Jacksonville State
6. UCLA vs. 11. Texas / San Diego State
Wichita, KS
2. Texas A&M vs. 15. Central Connecticut
7. Oregon vs. 10. Vanderbilt
WEST REGION (San Francisco)
Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Southern
8. Baylor vs. 9. Utah State
Cleveland, OH
4. Kentucky vs. 13. High Point
5. Memphis vs. 12. Yale
Denver, CO
3. Arizona vs. 14. Utah Valley
6. Illinois vs. 11. Wake Forest
Cleveland, OH
2. Florida vs. 15. Norfolk State
7. Maryland vs. 10. Oklahoma
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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Normally we go either six or seven teams deep in the discussion here, but that hardly seems necessary at the moment. Houston is presently our No. 6 overall seed, and the Cougars only have one particularly strong win in four tries. Texas A&M and Purdue round out the No. 2 seed line, but they each have five losses.
Great teams with great resumes, but definitely a step below this quintet.
Auburn is still beyond reproach at No. 1 overall in spite of the home loss to Florida. The Tigers have a 7-2 record against the top half of Quad 1, and their only losses on the season came to two other teams on this tier.
That said, Alabama definitely gained some ground on its in-state rival this week, narrowly winning at Arkansas in its lone game. If the Crimson Tide win at Texas on Tuesday and win the home game against Auburn on Saturday, that just might be enough to take the reins at No. 1 overall. However, we'll cross that bridge if we get to it.
Tennessee slides up to No. 3 after wins over Missouri and Oklahoma this week. The Volunteers now have eight Quad 1 wins and a total of nine wins over teams currently projected to dance.
Duke remains on the top line at No. 4 overall, but there's definitely a case to be made for Florida jumping over the Blue Devils for an all-SEC party up top.
Duke's overall resume is still slightly ahead of the Gators, though. Florida has two fantastic wins over Auburn and Tennessee, but just a bunch of bubble wins beyond that. Duke also beat Auburn, won at Arizona and won at Louisville, which is enough for an edge.
It's close, though. And before the Top 16 reveal on Saturday, Florida gets a quality game at Mississippi State while Duke hosts Cal. Winning that game might be enough to push the Gators over the top for an all-SEC No. 1 seed line.
10 Words on Each of the 10 Bubbliest Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Ohio State Buckeyes (14-10, NET: 27, RES: 40, QUAL: 31)—10 losses already with a month to go isn't promising.
Fourth-to-Last In: Georgia Bulldogs (16-8, NET: 34, RES: 43, QUAL: 38)—Lost six of last eight, and might lose next five.
Third-to-Last In: Texas Longhorns (15-9, NET: 31, RES: 49, QUAL: 31)—Basically needs home win over Alabama or Kentucky this week.
Second-to-Last In: San Diego State Aztecs (15-6, NET: 52, RES: 43, QUAL: 54)—Flirting with missing cut following Saturday's loss at Colorado State.
Last Team In: UC Irvine Anteaters (20-4, NET: 62, RES: 46, QUAL: 84)—Let's be honest: No one deserves this spot right now.
*****CUT LINE*****
First Team Out: Arkansas Razorbacks (14-9, NET: 43, RES: 50, QUAL: 44)—Knocking on the door after a road win over Texas.
Second Team Out: SMU Mustangs (18-5, NET: 40, RES: 48, QUAL: 45)—Sweet metrics, but please beat even one top 75 foe.
Third Team Out: San Francisco Dons (20-6, NET: 60, RES: 49, QUAL: 70)—Big win over Saint Mary's; needs one over Gonzaga, too.
Fourth Team Out: North Carolina Tar Heels (14-11, NET: 46, RES: 48, QUAL: 40)—Following Clemson L, Heels probably cannot afford another regular-season loss.
Fifth Team Out: BYU Cougars (15-8, NET: 41, RES: 56, QUAL: 32)—Drops out of the projected field after a two-loss week.
ACC Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Duke, 23. Clemson, 29. Louisville, 41. Wake Forest
Also Considered: SMU, North Carolina, Pittsburgh
Biggest Change: Clemson has a bizarre homestand
Getting to play three games at home in the span of seven days is unusual enough, but Clemson made it extra weird by acquiring by far its best win of the season...as well as by far its worst loss.
The loss came first, falling in triple overtime to sub-.500 Georgia Tech. The Tigers should've won in regulation, blowing a five-point lead in the final 40 seconds when Duncan Powell had a buzzer-beating putback. They also had chances to win at the end of both the first and second overtime, but Chase Hunter missed last second three-point attempts in each. He missed again at the end of OT No. 3, and that was that.
But maybe they lost that game to Georgia Tech because they already had their sights set on Duke four days later, because they snapped the Blue Devils' 16-game winning streak with a dominant performance in the paint.
Duke had no answer for big man Viktor Lakhin (22 points), finished minus-13 in rebound margin and couldn't even make 40 percent of its two-point attempts.
Had that two-game stretch gone the opposite, expected way with a win over Georgia Tech and a loss to Duke, Clemson would've entered Monday's game against UNC in the same shape as one week ago. But great win plus bad loss almost always equals a net gain, and the Tigers are now getting close to locking up a bid.
Backing it up with another solid win (in convincing fashion) Monday against North Carolina resulted in Clemson having the exceptionally rare week in which it climbs a full seed line despite suffering a Quad 3 loss.
Big 12 Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Houston, 9. Arizona, 10. Iowa State, 12. Texas Tech, 14. Kansas, 32. Baylor, 35. West Virginia
Also Considered: BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, Kansas State, Arizona State
Biggest Change: Bad News Along the Bubble
Big 12 teams were straddling the bubble one week ago. BYU was our last team in, and UCF and Arizona State were our first two teams out, respectively.
Those three teams...did not have a great week, going a combined 0-6.
BYU not only lost twice, but also did so convincingly, falling by 11 at home against Arizona before an 18-point loss at Cincinnati. The Cougars had surged into the at-large picture on the strength of consecutive wins over Colorado, Cincinnati, Baylor and UCF, but they fall back to 6-6 in Big 12 play after a nonconference slate in which they did nothing good.
For UCF, similar story: 10-point home loss to Cincinnati and a 15-point loss at Baylor. The predictive metrics already didn't much care for the Knights, and it only got worse. They've now dropped four in a row and eight of their last 11. If they don't beat Iowa State Tuesday night, they're probably toast.
And then Arizona State ran into the wood chipper that is Kansas State before a road loss over Oklahoma State on Sunday. The Sun Devils needed both wins just to keep the status quo, but they're in serious trouble now. They do have two games left against Texas Tech, plus one each against Houston and Arizona, for better or worse.
All that said, both Cincinnati and Kansas State got a whole lot more interesting this week, with KSU winning its rivalry game against Kansas in addition to the combined three wins noted above. They were long gone a week ago, but officially have both re-entered the chat, at least a little bit.
Big East Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. St. John's, 18. Marquette, 22. Creighton, 30. Connecticut
Also Considered: Xavier
Biggest Change: St. John's finally gets a quality win (and then another)
St. John's had been a tough one to seed for quite some time, playing like a team worthy of a protected (top four) seed, but without the quality wins to match. At this time one week ago, the Red Storm were 19-3, but 1-3 vs. Quad 1—that lone win a road game against Xavier, which wasn't in the projected field.
So we knew this past week was huge for the Johnnies, hosting Marquette before playing at UConn in a two-game stretch where two wins had the potential to turn a projected No. 6 seed into a No. 3 seed, while two losses would leave us beginning to question whether they deserve to be in the field at all.
They went the former route, winning each game by a six-point margin. St. John's decimated Marquette on the glass for a plus-22 rebound margin, and then suffocated Connecticut to the tune of a plus-15 turnover margin. As a result, even shooting a combined 7-for-37 (18.9 percent) from three-point range couldn't stop them from making a pair of major statements.
The Johnnies jump three seed lines, and they might not be done yet. They play at Villanova and host Creighton in the next seven days, both of which are borderline Quad 1 opportunities. Get both of those to improve to 23-3 with a few more quality wins, and they might crash the No. 2 seed line.
Big Ten Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Purdue, 15. Michigan, 16. Michigan State, 19. Wisconsin, 21. UCLA, 24. Illinois, 27. Maryland, 28. Oregon, 38. Nebraska, 42. Ohio State
Also Considered: Indiana, USC
Biggest Change: Oregon's schneid continues
Not even one month ago, Oregon was the best projected seed out of the Big Ten. The Ducks were 15-2 overall with no bad losses and a staggering eight Quad 1 wins, including neutral-site victories over Alabama, Texas A&M and San Diego State in the Players Era Festival.
Since then, however, the wheels have fallen off, with a Quad 3 home win over Washington representing the only game they haven't lost while slipping to 16-8 overall.
At least this week's losses don't look bad on paper. After losing at Minnesota, getting destroyed at UCLA and losing at home to Nebraska in recent weeks, Oregon flew to the mitten for a four-point loss to Michigan and a 12-point loss to Michigan State, both of whom are now virtual locks for the tournament.
The way they lost to the Spartans, however, was demoralizing, shooting 10-for-19 from three-point range in the first half en route to a 50-36 lead at the intermission, only to shoot 0-for-8 in the second half in a loss to a team that was without its starting point guard (Jeremy Fears).
The quality wins haven't gone anywhere, and the Ducks are nowhere close to dropping out of the projected field altogether. However, we're getting some serious 2017-18 Oklahoma vibes here from a team that seems hellbent on finding out just how many losses it would take to squander a 15-2 start with eight Quad 1 wins.
Oregon slips a couple more seed lines, and would be advised not to lose the home games against Northwestern and/or Rutgers in the next seven days.
SEC Summary
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13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 2. Alabama, 3. Tennessee, 5. Florida, 7. Texas A&M, 13. Kentucky, 20. Ole Miss, 25. Missouri, 26. Mississippi State, 37. Oklahoma, 40. Vanderbilt, 43. Georgia, 44. Texas
Also Considered: Arkansas
Biggest Change: Rough week for the bubble
Much like the Big 12, it was a brutal week for SEC teams anywhere close to the bubble.
In last week's projection, Oklahoma was No. 36 overall (bottom No. 9 seed), Texas was No. 37, Vanderbilt was No. 38, Georgia was No. 42, Arkansas was not quite First Five Out but definitely on the radar and LSU was way out on the fringe of remote consideration but not completely dead yet.
From that group, Oklahoma, Texas and LSU all went 0-2, pushing the first two closer to the brink of the cut line while all but officially writing LSU's obituary. (Texas pushed more so than Oklahoma, as the Sooners' losses both came against projected No. 1 seeds.)
And while the other three each went 1-1 for the week, each of those wins (Georgia vs. LSU, Vanderbilt vs. Texas, Arkansas at Texas) came against one of the 0-2 teams.
Of the six, only Arkansas looks to be in better shape than it was seven days ago. That win at Texas was a Quad 1A result, and no shame in a three-point home loss to Alabama.
The Hogs are now right on the cut line, but with what is a favorable remaining schedule as far as life in the SEC goes. Road games against Texas A&M and Auburn in the next 10 days won't be fun, but they otherwise get Texas, Missouri, Mississippi State and LSU at home; South Carolina and Vanderbilt on the road. They might need to go 5-3, but that's doable against that slate.
Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 17. Memphis, 31. Saint Mary's, 33. New Mexico, 34. Utah State, 36. Gonzaga, 39. Drake, 45. San Diego State, 48. George Mason
Also Considered: San Francisco, VCU, Boise State
Biggest Change: Multi-bid A-10 dream is coming into focus
The St. John's-UConn game had all of the national spotlight on Friday night, but there was also a gigantic game in the A-10 in which VCU went on the road for a quality win over Dayton.
Whoever won that game was going to emerge as a much more legitimate at-large candidate, and it did bring VCU's resume metrics average up from around 64 to around 54—a critical jump, given the worst resume metrics average to receive an at-large bid in the NET era was 57.5 by Rutgers in 2022.
VCU is now 19-5 overall, but does have a Quad 4 loss to Seton Hall causing problems for a resume lacking in anything close to a truly marquee win. But a 6-1 finish likely does the trick here.
Meanwhile, George Mason picked up two more wins over George Washington and Richmond to improve to 10-1 in A-10 play.
GMU's resume metrics average? Slightly better (51) than VCU's (55). However, VCU has much better predictive metrics and just the one bad loss to Mason's two (at East Carolina, vs. Central Michigan), so there's little question that the Rams have the better at-large case.
The Patriots have a semi-big game at Saint Louis Tuesday and a bigger road game against VCU coming up on the 22nd. Winner of that one could have a great argument for a bid, especially if the Big 12 and SEC continues chopping down its own bubble teams.
Elsewhere, welcome to the more legitimate conversation, San Francisco. The Dons avenged their earlier 20-point loss at Saint Mary's with a one-point victory over the Gaels, followed by a respectable road win over Loyola Marymount. USF is merely 4-6 vs. Quads 1-2, but with no bad losses and with two games still to come against Gonzaga. Split those and win the other three games left on the schedule (at Oregon State, at San Diego, vs. Pacific) and they'll have a good shot.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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22 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 46. UC Irvine, 47. UC San Diego, 49. McNeese, 50. Yale, 51. Akron, 52. Arkansas State, 53. High Point, 54. Samford, 55. Jacksonville State, 56. Utah Valley, 57. Lipscomb, 58. Northern Colorado, 59. Cleveland State, 60. Norfolk State, 61. Towson, 62. Central Connecticut, 63. Bryant, 64. Southern, 65. Merrimack, 66. Omaha, 67. Little Rock, 68. American
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Change: UCSD up; UCI down (but not out)
'Twas a huge game in the Big West on Saturday night with UC San Diego going on the road to face UC Irvine—the only two teams from this tier with any realistic hope for an at-large bid.
When they met in La Jolla earlier this season, Irvine won in a 60-52 sort of rock fight in which the Anteaters typically excel. UCSD shot 6-for-35 (17.1 percent) from three-point range in that one, scoring just eight points in the final 11 minutes.
Drastically different story in the rematch with the Tritons shooting 16-for-31 (51.6 percent) from distance in the process of running away with an 85-67 statement victory.
At this point, UCSD might have the better case for an at-large bid, thanks in large part to that road win over Utah State from mid-December.
But for both teams, it's now a tightrope walk to the finish line. If they both go 8-0 the rest of the way before a rubber match in the Big West championship, there's a chance the loser gets in. Anything short of that, though, and the dream of a two-bid Big West might be done.
Before we wrap up, got to shout out the two remaining teams with a zero in the loss column in conference play. Both Duke and Saint Mary's took an L this week, so we're down to just the pair of Akron and Yale trying to run the table.
Akron now has the nation's longest winning streak at 11 games, including a 15-point victory over South Alabama in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge on Saturday. With nary a win over a NET Top 125 team, though, it's still auto bid or bust for the MAC leader. But if the Zips can run the table in a league that hasn't even had a one-loss champ since Kent State in 2002, what a statement that would be.
But the one more likely to finish the fight is Yale, with KenPom giving the Bulldogs a 35 percent chance of finishing 14-0 in Ivy League play. If they get through Penn and Princeton next weekend, that increases to close to 50 percent. Incredible stuff from a team that lost Danny Wolf to Michigan and Matt Knowling to USC this past offseason.
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