2025 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
With a mere 40 days remaining until Selection Sunday for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament, Johni Broome's Auburn Tigers have all but locked up a No. 1 seed, with both Cooper Flagg's Duke Blue Devils and Mark Sears' Alabama Crimson Tide not far behind.
That fourth No. 1 seed, however, is all sorts of up for grabs, with a strong possibility that a third SEC team secures that spot. Even at that, though, there are a total of five SEC teams in our top eight overall spots right now, so which one would it be?
With 13 projected bids and a 14th team getting much more interesting this week, the SEC is running away with the title of top conference. The Big Ten is presently looking good for 10 bids, albeit with nowhere near as much national championship potential.
As a reminder, the projected champion (auto bid) of each conference is based on the current league standings. (In the cases where multiple teams are tied atop the loss column, the one with the best predictive metrics gets the projected bid.)
Using this approach, there presently are no bid thieves causing the at-large field to shrink, but there are quite a few instances where the team with the best predictive metrics isn't the team with the best league record.
(If you have any questions on what goes into the bracketology process or want to argue about a certain team's spot (or lack of a spot) in the projected field, you can find me begrudgingly on Twitter and occasionally on Bluesky.)
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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EAST REGION (Newark)
Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Southern / Nebraska Omaha
8. Connecticut vs. 9. Oklahoma
Providence, RI
4. Kentucky vs. 13. Yale
5. Wisconsin vs. 12. Arkansas State
Denver, CO
3. Kansas vs. 14. UNC Asheville
6. Illinois vs. 11. Georgia / BYU
Cleveland, OH
2. Florida vs. 15. Towson
7. Creighton vs. 10. Vanderbilt
MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)
Lexington, KY
1. Alabama vs. 16. Florida Gulf Coast
8. Louisville vs. 9. Utah State
Providence, RI
4. Michigan State vs. 13. Akron
5. Missouri vs. 12. George Mason
Cleveland, OH
3. Marquette vs. 14. Jacksonville State
6. Maryland vs. 11. Drake
Wichita, KS
2. Houston vs. 15. Central Connecticut
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Gonzaga
SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)
Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. American / Morehead State
8. UCLA vs. 9. West Virginia
Seattle, WA
4. Memphis vs. 13. Samford
5. Oregon vs. 12. UC Irvine
Denver, CO
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Cleveland State
6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Nebraska
Wichita, KS
2. Texas A&M vs. 15. Norfolk State
7. Saint Mary's vs. 10. San Diego State
WEST REGION (San Francisco)
Raleigh, NC
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Marist
8. Baylor vs. 9. New Mexico
Seattle, WA
4. Arizona vs. 13. Grand Canyon
5. Michigan vs. 12. McNeese
Milwaukee, WI
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Northern Colorado
6. St. John's vs. 11. Ohio State / Wake Forest
Milwaukee, WI
2. Purdue vs. 15. Bryant
7. Clemson vs. 10. Texas
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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1. Auburn Tigers (20-1, NET: 1, RES: 1. QUAL: 2)
2. Duke Blue Devils (19-2, NET: 2, RES: 3, QUAL: 2)
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (19-3, NET: 6, RES: 2, QUAL: 5)
4. Tennessee Volunteers (18-4, NET: 4, RES: 5, QUAL: 5)
5. Houston Cougars (17-4, NET: 3, RES: 11, QUAL: 2)
6. Florida Gators (18-3, NET: 5, RES: 8, QUAL: 6)
Auburn and Duke just keep churning along, now boasting 13-game and 15-game winning streaks, respectively.
The Blue Devils pummeled rival North Carolina on Saturday. And though both LSU and Ole Miss put up solid fights against Auburn, the Tigers did their thing, keeping those upset-minded foes at arm's reach and eventually winning by double digits on the road in both games.
Auburn is now 12-1 vs. Quad 1, which is getting absurd. Kansas holds the NET era record for Quad 1 wins, going 17-7 in 2022-23. The Tigers could go 5-5 the rest of the way and still be pretty comfortably on the No. 1 seed line. But they aren't losing five games.
Alabama is also firmly entrenched in the top three following its win at Mississippi State and home win over Georgia this week. Pretty strong case to be made that the Crimson Tide—at 5-1 vs. Quad 1A and 14-3 against the top two Quads—should even move ahead of Duke for No. 2 overall. We'll keep the status quo for now, though, and see what happens on Saturday when Duke plays at Clemson right before Alabama plays at Arkansas.
The race for the fourth No. 1 seed got all sorts of messy on Saturday, though.
Iowa State, Florida, Houston, Marquette and Michigan State all suffered losses. And though Tennessee was the exception to the rule, pounding Florida by 20 sans both Zakai Zeigler and Igor Milicic, the Volunteers lost at home to Kentucky earlier in the week and entered the weekend much closer to a No. 3 seed than a No. 1 seed.
They survived the carnage, though, to at least temporarily put three SEC teams on the top line again.
And before you try to argue that would never happen, let's not forget that the ACC's Duke, Virginia and North Carolina were the top three overall seeds in 2019.
Houston is hot on Tennessee's tail, though, aided by the 14-point win at West Virginia this past week. Kind of wild how quickly the Cougars went from "where are the good wins?" to "Oh, that's almost a No. 1 seed resume." And with three games before our next refresh in which they're projected to win by double digits (vs. OK State, at Colorado, vs. Baylor), the Cougars might overtake that fourth spot in blowout fashion.
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (14-8, NET: 50, RES: 42, QUAL: 44)—Consecutive wins over Illinois and Oregon vault 'Huskers back in.
Fourth-to-Last In: Georgia Bulldogs (15-7, NET: 34, RES: 42, QUAL: 39)—Must protect home court against LSU and MSU this week.
Third-to-Last In: Ohio State Buckeyes (13-9, NET: 26, RES: 43, QUAL: 30)—The three marquee wins help counteract the nine total losses.
Second-to-Last In: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (16-6, NET: 69, RES: 42, QUAL: 72)—Sneaks in after home win over an equally bubble-y Pittsburgh.
Last Team In: BYU Cougars (15-6, NET: 33, RES: 49, QUAL: 27)—Three best wins of season came in past 10 days.
****CUT LINE****
First Team Out: UCF Knights (13-8, NET: 64, RES: 44, QUAL: 56)—Slips to just behind BYU after home loss to Cougars.
Second Team Out: Arizona State Sun Devils (12-9, NET: 58, RES: 48, QUAL: 59)—Three Quad 1 wins, just one loss outside that group.
Third Team Out: USC Trojans (13-8, NET: 68, RES: 54, QUAL: 52)—Toppling Michigan State made USC more interesting in a hurry.
Fourth Team Out: SMU Mustangs (17-5, NET: 41, RES: 51, QUAL: 45)—Great metrics, but Mustangs are 1-5 vs. top 1.5 Quads.
Fifth Team Out: Indiana Hoosiers (14-8, NET: 65, RES: 48, QUAL: 57)—Limited quality wins, but no losses outside of Quad 1.
ACC Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Duke, 26. Clemson, 31. Louisville, 45. Wake Forest
Also Considered: SMU, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Stanford
Biggest Change: Tar Heels are probably toast
In a vacuum, there was nothing terribly wrong with North Carolina's week. Losses at Pitt and at Duke were missed opportunities against the top half of Quad 1. Had either Louisville or Clemson suffered the same fate, it might have dropped one seed line, at most.
For the Tar Heels, however, those losses likely pushed them past the point of no return.
They are now 13-10 overall with a 1-9 mark against Quad 1. (Even that one win against UCLA is hardly a difference maker.) And though teams in the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten could go on a tear and start stockpiling quality wins to change the narrative, UNC doesn't have that luxury in the ACC.
The Tar Heels do host Pittsburgh this Saturday and play at Clemson two days later, for what will be high Quad 2 and Quad 1 affairs, respectively. After that, though, it's a month's worth of games that will do nothing to help this resume before ending the regular season at home against Duke.
Winning out would almost certainly be enough for a bid, but anything short of that might not be.
Elsewhere, SMU just keeps hanging around the bubble, despite not having a single win against a team in the NET top 70.
The Mustangs beat Cal by 11 and Stanford by 24 this week, hovering around 45th in all the metrics. They don't play Duke or Louisville (or North Carolina) again, and their remaining games against Pitt and Clemson are both at home, meaning no opportunities before the ACC tournament for a real resume-boosting win.
Like UNC, though, if SMU wins the rest of its regular-season games, there's a good chance it would make the tournament.
Big 12 Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Houston, 10. Kansas, 11. Iowa State, 12. Texas Tech, 15. Arizona, 32. Baylor, 33. West Virginia, 46. BYU
Also Considered: UCF, Arizona State
Biggest Change: Texas Tech thrives in shake-up Saturday
There were some wild results from Saturday's loaded slate of games, but nowhere more so than in the Big 12.
At the top of the heap, you had former No. 1 seed Iowa State losing at home to Kansas State. Check that: Getting pummeled by Kansas State, which was a team that looked irredeemably broken as little as 10 days ago. The normally excellent backcourt duo of Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert couldn't get anything going, and the Wildcats blew the game wide open with a 26-4 run that spanned halftime.
Between that result and Florida's 20-point loss at Tennessee earlier in the day, Houston was poised to make the leap to a No. 1 seed if it managed to take care of business at home against Texas Tech. And with sixth man Kevin Overton already unavailable for the Red Raiders, when TTU's star big man JT Toppin (as well as head coach Grant McCasland) got controversially ejected less than four minutes into the game, it sure looked like the Cougars would be able to get that win.
Lo and behold, Kerwin Walton picked up the slack, hitting four triples and scoring in double figures for the first time in 18 games. Darrion Williams hit the big three to send the game to overtime, where Chance McMillian hit the game-tying and game-winning free throws for Texas Tech with 15 seconds remaining.
Massive win for a team that had already been on a tear through January. And if Texas Tech stays hot this week against Baylor and Arizona, it could be a strong No. 2 seed in a hurry.
Elsewhere, Kansas blew a 21-point lead in what ended up being an 11-point loss at Baylor. The Bears were starting to slip to the bubble and needed that one. And part of the reason they were slipping to the bubble was because they lost to BYU earlier in the week, with the Cougars picking up another Quad 1 win on Saturday at UCF. All of a sudden, they are very much back in the mix for a bid.
Big East Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Marquette, 21. St. John's, 28. Creighton, 30. Connecticut
Also Considered: Xavier
Biggest Change: Still shorthanded, UConn stuns Marquette
Early on Saturday, it sounded like Connecticut's freshman star Liam McNeeley would be returning for the showdown with Marquette. He reportedly practiced on Friday and participated in the shootaround Saturday morning, but they decided that he wasn't quite ready to return from his high ankle sprain.
The Huskies went ahead and shot the lights out anyway.
Marquette dominated the turnover battle, forcing 25 while committing just eight. But while the Golden Eagles shot a modest 40 percent from the field and 32 percent from three-point range, UConn went for 60 and 63 percent, respectively, seemingly unable to miss on the 62 percent of possessions that didn't end in a turnover.
Solo Ball hit seven triples and grabbed more defensive rebounds (11) than Marquette did as an entire team (nine), as the Huskies secured a much-needed win to avoid really falling onto the bubble. They're still just a No. 8 seed, but they've climbed eight spots on the overall seed list since last week.
Elsewhere, St. John's maintained its perfect record outside of Quad 1, destroying Georgetown in D.C. before eking out a home win over Providence. Thanks to UConn's win, St. John's is now alone in first place in the Big East in advance of a colossal week: vs. Marquette Tuesday; at UConn Friday.
The 19-3 Johnnies have been very much lacking in the quality wins department. If that changes with two huge wins this week, they could vault up to a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Conversely, if they lose both and drop to 1-5 against Quad 1—that one win coming at not-in-the-field Xavier, no less—we'll be spending Super Bowl Sunday really questioning whether this team still deserves to be projected for a single-digit seed.
Big Ten Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Purdue, 13. Michigan State, 18. Wisconsin, 19. Michigan, 20. Oregon, 22. Maryland, 24. Illinois, 29. UCLA, 41. Nebraska, 44. Ohio State
Also Considered: USC, Indiana
Biggest Change: Nebraska snaps six-game skid in absurdly impressive fashion
After a 12-2 start with a road win over Creighton and home wins over UCLA and Indiana, Nebraska was projected for a No. 8 seed in our Jan. 7 bracket.
Three weeks later, the 'Huskers had dropped out of the picture altogether, not even among our First Five Out last Tuesday.
That'll happen when you lose six in a row, three of those coming against teams that wouldn't be in tournament field today (Iowa, Rutgers and USC)—two of those three coming at home, too, for a Quad 2 and a Quad 3 loss.
They needed quite a jolt to get back into the conversation, and, goodness, did they ever get one.
Nebraska scored a Quad 1 win over Illinois this past Thursday, winning that home game in overtime. Brice Williams racked up 27 points, eight rebounds and four assists, overcoming Kasparas Jakucionis' 18 points and 13 rebounds for the Illini.
Williams was still in his bag Sunday night at Oregon, too, going for 28 points, seven rebounds and six assists in a huge Quad 1 victory over a Ducks team that has eight Quad 1 wins of its own.
Just like that, Nebraska skyrocketed from somewhere around the 10th team out to the brink of a No. 10 seed, in the field and clear of a First Four spot in Dayton.
Things can change drastically in seven days, even three months into the season.
SEC Summary
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13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 3. Alabama, 4. Tennessee, 6. Florida, 7. Texas A&M, 14. Kentucky, 17. Missouri, 23. Ole Miss, 27. Mississippi State, 36. Oklahoma, 37. Texas, 38. Vanderbilt, 42. Georgia
Also Considered: Arkansas
Biggest Change: Razor-back from the dead?
One emotional win over Kentucky doesn't change the fact that Arkansas entered the John Calipari game at just 2-8 against the top two Quads. There's still work to be done before the Razorbacks are fully back in the mix for a bid.
However, that was a pretty serious "Undertaker popping out of the casket gif" type of marquee win for the not-dead-yet Hogs.
Fittingly, it was the guys who Cal brought with him when he left Lexington who did the heavy lifting. Adou Thiero had 21 points and eight rebounds. DJ Wagner racked up 17 points and eight dimes. And though he couldn't do much of anything to slow down Amari Williams, Zvonimir Ivisic at least scored 14 points, bringing the "Three Former Wildcats" total to 52 points in the 89-79 victory.
Was it just a blip on the radar or the start of something more?
As you could probably guess, being a member of the loaded SEC, Arkansas has plenty of opportunity ahead, at Texas on Wednesday before a home game against Alabama on Saturday.
Getting a split of those Quad 1 games would be a net positive, possibly enough to bring the Razorbacks up into the 'First Five Out' range. A sweep would almost certainly be enough for them to skyrocket back into the projected field. (See: Nebraska.)
In non-Calipari SEC news, it was another tough week for Mississippi State, losing back-to-back home games against Alabama and Missouri—the latter a 27-point blowout that has the Tigers on the brink of a No. 4 seed.
The Bulldogs are now 2-5 in their last seven games, the wins both coming in overtime against South Carolina (road) and Ole Miss (home). They're still in the projected field with quite a bit of room to spare, but it feels like a lifetime ago when this team was on the cusp of a No. 2 seed. And things could get iffy in a hurry with four of their next six on the road, with the two home games against current projected No. 2 seeds (Florida and Texas A&M).
Mid-Majors Summary (AAC, A-10, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 16. Memphis, 25. Saint Mary's, 34. New Mexico, 35. Utah State, 39. Gonzaga, 40. San Diego State, 43. Drake, 48. George Mason
Also Considered: Bradley, San Francisco, VCU, Dayton, North Texas
Biggest Change: New Mexico and Saint Mary's win the big-time clashes
The actual biggest change here is Bradley losing its grip on the projected Missouri Valley auto bid in light of its home loss to Illinois-Chicago. We previously had Drake as our last at-large team in the field, but now the 20-2 Bulldogs are the Valley's only representative.
But there were massive games late Saturday in both the Mountain West and West Coast Conferences, Saint Mary's hosting Gonzaga and Utah State hosting New Mexico.
The WCC game ended up pretty much as expected. Took a wild ride to get there, Saint Mary's jumping out to a 32-18 lead barely 12 minutes into the game before scoring just 30 points the rest of the way, but the Gaels got the win at home to improve to 10-0 in league play, closing in on being a lock for the dance.
Gonzaga is in legitimate danger of missing the dance, though.
Since beating up on Indiana on Thanksgiving, the Zags have gone 1-6 against KenPom top 100 foes, that lone win the home game against Oregon State last Tuesday. They're now 5-7 vs. Quads 1 and 2 without any truly marquee wins. The predictive metrics still love them, ranked just outside the top 10 in all of NET, BPI and KenPom. But they might need to go 7-1 the rest of the way, lest their resume metrics (47 average at the moment) keep them out for what would be the first time since 1998.
The MWC result was considerably more stunning, with the Lobos ending the game on a 43-15 run for a 19-point road win. Aggies starters went a combined 0-for-13 from three-point range for the game, and it seemed like there was a lid on their rim over the final 15 minutes.
Both teams were already in the projected field, and it's not a devastating loss for USU. It was massive for UNM, though, finally getting another Quad 1 win to go along with the early victory over UCLA. Despite the bad losses to New Mexico State and San Jose State, the Lobos are looking mighty good for a bid with less than six weeks to go. (Though, with road games remaining against San Diego State, Boise State and Nevada as well as the rematch with Utah State, things could get dicey in a hurry.)
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 47. UC Irvine, 49. McNeese, 50. Arkansas State, 51. Grand Canyon, 52. Yale, 53. Akron, 54. Samford, 55. Jacksonville State, 56. Northern Colorado, 57. Cleveland State, 58. UNC Ashville, 59. Norfolk State, 60. Bryant, 61. Towson, 62. Central Connecticut, 63. Florida Gulf Coast, 64. Marist, 65. Southern, 66. Nebraska Omaha, 67. American, 68. Morehead State
Also Considered: UC San Diego
Biggest Change: And then there were four
Michigan State and Houston weren't the only teams to have their perfect record in conference play bite the dust on Saturday.
Utah Valley none too surprisingly got smoked at Grand Canyon, the 'Lopes repaying the Wolverines for the previous result in Orem. They are now both 7-1 in WAC play, but GCU re-takes the reins as the projected champ.
The much more stunning result was McNeese losing at Nicholls. The Cowboys shot 0-for-12 from three-point range while the Colonels went 11-for-22 from deep and, well, that's a lot to overcome.
Curiously, the first Saturday in February is also when McNeese suffered its only loss in Southland play last year, and maybe this one lights a fire in Will Wade's guys once again.
Auburn, Duke and Saint Mary's are still perfect in their conferences, but that leaves four teams from this tier still chasing the elusive undefeated league record.
Bryant is 8-0 in the America East and is the projected winner of every game left on its schedule. However, if the Bulldogs make it to late February still standing, it's likely the consecutive road games against Vermont, UMass Lowell and Maine will result in at least one loss.
Akron improved to 9-0 in the MAC this week, winning road games against Northern Illinois and Kent State, both by double digits. Finishing 18-0 isn't out of the question here, though it's fitting for John Groce that the biggest hurdle is the Feb. 22 game at Ohio, where he used to be the head coach.
Southern is also 9-0 in the SWAC following home wins over Alcorn State and Jackson State. The Jaguars had suffered at least five conference losses in each of the past 10 years, but their relentless defensive pressure has them looking like the team to beat. And they already won their road game against Texas Southern back in early January.
Last, but not least, Yale is still perfect sitting atop the Ivy League following road wins over Princeton and Penn. Playing at Cornell this coming Saturday is the most likely spot for the Bulldogs to take an L. Survive that one, though, and they might join 2016-17 Princeton as the only teams to run the Ivy League table in the past 16 years.
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