Small-School MCBB Teams You Need to Watch At Least Once Before the NCAA Tournament
In just a few weeks' time, you're going to need to decide which double-digit seeds can pull off an upset or two in the NCAA tournament, and no one should go into their bracket having not even watched nearly a third of the teams in the field.
But it's also a bit late in the game to start trying to watch them all, so how about a few hand-picked small schools that are both entertaining to watch and might actually be relevant in March?
To meet the "small-school" criteria, we are only considering teams from conferences that typically do not receive multiple bids. That means no one from the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, SEC, American, A-10, Mountain West or West Coast Conferences will appear within.
With only one at-large bid in the past seven tournaments, though, Missouri Valley teams were deemed eligible for inclusion. Likewise, the Western Athletic used to be a multi-bid league for decades, but it hasn't put a second team into the dance since 2010. Thus, WAC teams are also fair game here.
Earlier this week, our David Kenyon gave you a list of teams with serious Cinderella potential. Rather than double dip on any of those, we'll simply mention them here as honorable mentions before highlighting other small schools who are A) fun to watch and B) might be a real threat to destroy your bracket.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order.
Honorable mentions: Akron, McNeese, Merrimack, Northern Colorado, Samford, UC San Diego, Yale
Arkansas State Red Wolves
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Before you buy stock in a team as a threat to pull off a big upset or two in the NCAA tournament, it's always wonderful if they've already shown the ability to hang with one of the big dogs.
The Red Wolves have.
Twice.
The big statement was the road win over Memphis in early December, pretty well cruising to a 13-point victory on an afternoon when they didn't even shoot all that well. They were simply better than the Tigers, who were all sorts of sloppy with 20 turnovers committed.
Arkansas State also put up a solid fight at Alabama in the opening week of the season, rallying from what was a 16-point deficit in the first half to tie the game with about seven minutes remaining. The Crimson Tide eventually scratched out a nine-point win, but that was quite the showing on the road against what is likely going to be a No. 1 seed.
What's wild about that Alabama game is the Red Wolves were still figuring out their rotation. Joseph Pinion has become their primary three-point weapon, but he only played 15 minutes off the bench, and now-starting big man Izaiyah Nelson wasn't available at all for that one. Still battled a title contender tooth and nail.
Yes, they have since suffered seven losses to teams that are very much not title contenders, dealing with a bit of Jekyll and Hyde syndrome. However, you don't win at Memphis and hang with Alabama unless you have the potential to do some damage in March. And goodness knows the Sun Belt champ has delivered some bracket-busting, first-round haymakers over the years.
Drake Bulldogs
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If at first you don't succeed...
Drake was a prime Cinderella candidate in three of the past four years, earning a No. 10 seed last March, a No. 12 seed the year before that and sneaking in as a No. 11 seed at-large team in 2021. But aside from clipping Wichita State by one in the play-in game in 2021, all the Bulldogs have to show for it is a trio of first-round exits. Their most recent trip to the second round came all the way back in 1971.
With a new coach and a completely revamped roster, though, they just might be better than ever.
Drake took a tough home L to Bradley this past weekend, falling to 23-3 on the season. But those early-season wins over Vanderbilt and Kansas State serve the dual purpose of showing what this team can do and keeping the Bulldogs arguably on the correct side of the bubble cut line, if necessary.
Now, if you're looking for fast-paced, run-and-gun offense, this ain't it, chief. Drake plays at the slowest pace in the entire country, rivaling some of Tony Bennett's most sluggish Virginia teams in that regard.
They do it efficiently, though, and with the backcourt duo of Bennett Stirtz and Mitch Mascari playing darn near every minute of every game, respectively ranking first and second in the nation in percentage of minutes played against D-I competition, per KenPom.
And when they're both playing well, Drake is like an unstoppable snail.
Grand Canyon Antelopes
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With five of last year's six leading scorers—including the dynamic duo of Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison—returning for another season, the expectation was that Grand Canyon would run it back again, winning the WAC somewhat comfortably while becoming one of the teams that would have been in the mix for an at-large bid, if necessary.
That hasn't been the case, though, even with JaKobe Coles transferring in from TCU and tallying around 14 points and six rebounds per game for the 'Lopes.
GCU is barely top-100 on KenPom and isn't even in first place in the WAC, one game behind 10-1 Utah Valley.
This is still a dangerous team, though. One that plays with both tempo and physicality. One that beat Stanford on a neutral floor, almost beat Arizona State on a neutral floor (while down a starter) and put up a good fight on the road against Georgia.
The 'Lopes simply haven't been as efficient or consistent on offense, despite having a stout eight-man rotation.
Grant-Foster shooting a combined 4-for-29 from three-point range with 26 turnovers in their six losses was one of the biggest reasons they struggled in those games, but we all know the star who went for 51 points in GCU's two-game tournament run last season can be a difference-maker in a good way, too.
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High Point Panthers
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Watch out for the Huss Bus.
That is, of course, the name of the bandwagon driven/fueled by High Point head coach Alan Huss.
1999-00 was this program's first year at the D-I level, and last year—Huss' first as a collegiate head coach after spending the previous six years as an assistant at Creighton—was its best yet, winning 27 games and finishing in 114th place on KenPom.
This year they're even better, presently 23-5 and ranked in the top 100, hoping to secure that Big South auto bid and their first-ever trip to the NCAA tournament.
To put it lightly, the Panthers don't win games with their defense. But they are prolific on offense, ranking top-75 in the nation in effective field-goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebound percentage and free-throw rate. They are the nation's only member of that club, also ranking top-50 in each of three-point percentage, two-point percentage and free-throw percentage.
Granted, it hasn't come against stiff competition. In fact, High Point has only faced one KenPom top-100 team all season. But in that 76-71 victory over North Texas, the Panthers became the only team to put up more than 75 against the Mean Green. So, that offense just might put on a show against a No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.
High Point only has two games left in its regular season, as the Big South championship game is not so far away at noon ET on March 9. If you haven't seen them yet, you're quickly running out of chances.
Liberty Flames
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At the turn of the calendar year, Liberty had a decent case for at-large consideration. The Flames were 12-1 with neutral-site victories over both Kansas State and McNeese, their lone loss coming in overtime against Florida Atlantic in Charleston.
They proceeded to lose four of their first nine games in Conference USA play, though, and have dropped perhaps hopelessly out of the at-large race.
Still, this is a solid defense, one of the best shooting teams in the country and a coach/program that did pull off a big upset in the first round of the dance in 2019.
When holding the opposition below 70 points this season, Liberty is a perfect 20-0.
The Flames are also 18-1 when shooting at least 30 percent from three-point range, which usually isn't a big ask from them. Of the seven team leaders in three-point attempts, six shoot north of 38 percent, and they've made at least eight triples in all but three games to date.
What's unique about Liberty is that the team leader in assists is...a 6'7" power forward who basically never shoots threes. Zach Cleveland excels at driving and dishing or backing his man down before finding an open teammate.
He averages 4.9 dimes, but Colin Porter isn't far behind him at 4.2 assists per game, and that two-pronged distribution network plays a massive role in their ability to bleed clock before getting up a quality shot.
UC Irvine Anteaters
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For a team from the tier that we dub "The Other 21 Leagues" for bracketology purposes, UC Irvine has an uncommonly fantastic defense.
No one from that tier finished top-30 in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, and you have to go back to 2015-16 Valparaiso—which narrowly missed the NCAA tournament before making it to the NIT championship—to find the last time one landed in the top 15.
Nevertheless, UC Irvine is presently No. 11 in DRtg on KenPom, almost impenetrable in the paint regardless of whether Bent Leuchten or Kyle Evans is at the 5. The Anteaters also rarely commit fouls, to the point where they have made 100 more free throws than they have allowed their opponents to attempt.
Occasionally, things do go haywire against UCI. UC San Diego shot 16-for-30 (51.6 percent) from three-point range in a recent win over the Anteaters, and that wasn't even their worst luck. Weber State hit 13-of-25 (52.0 percent) in pushing Irvine to the brink, and Duquesne couldn't miss at 14-for-25 (56.0 percent) in what was UCI's worst loss of the season.
Generally, though, opponents have struggled to reach 70 points against the Anteaters, even though they play at a well-above-average pace.
It's a shame they don't shoot better, though, ranking outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency. But they definitely can shoot free throws, converting those at a better than 80 percent clip. That could be a game-changer in a Cinderella story.
TBD Dakota State
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It's possible that neither North Dakota State nor South Dakota State will make it to the NCAA tournament.
As far as KenPom is concerned, however, these are the two best tournament-eligible teams from the Summit League, and by an extremely wide margin. SDSU is just outside the top 100, NDSU is 134th and the only other Summit team in the top 200 is St. Thomas, which won't become eligible to dance until next season.
So, good chance you'll see one of the Dakota State teams as something like a No. 13 seed next month, which is a terrifying proposition for a team like Arizona or Kansas hanging out in the projected No. 4 seed range.
South Dakota State's Oscar Cluff is one of the most unstoppable forces in the nation, averaging 17.3 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. The Jackrabbits had no answer for Alabama's offense, but Cluff went for 21 and 15 in that game against the Crimson Tide, one of his 18 double-doubles on the year. He could take over a tournament game, especially if SDSU draws an opponent with a weak/shallow frontcourt.
Of the two, though, North Dakota State is probably the most problematic.
Not only do the Bison lead the nation in effective field-goal percentage, but they take more than 55 percent of their field-goal attempts from three-point range, an average mark of 12.2 makes on 30.3 attempts. They also play at a slow pace, which makes those three-point buckets feel even more valuable in games with limited possessions.
The fly in the ointment is that this team is terrible on defense. But, remind me, did that stop Oral Roberts from reaching the Sweet 16 a few years ago?
NDSU won at Santa Clara and at Butler earlier this season, and also throttled a solid Utah Valley team by 20, shooting a combined 42-for-89 from downtown. If they get in and they get hot, watch out.
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