Dangerous Teams with Most Cinderella Potential in 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament
Earning a top seed in the 2025 men's NCAA tournament will be a great accomplishment, but that standing will also place a major target on a team's proverbial back.
And lovely Cinderella isn't always so kind.
During the last decade, we've watched a pair of No. 16 seeds pull off first-round stunners and three No. 15s reach the Sweet 16—with Saint Peter's even making the Elite Eight in 2022. Oregon State advanced to the Elite Eight as a No. 12 in 2021, too.
As the countdown to March Madness in 2025 hits a month remaining, we're looking at seven schools that have serious potential to spring a couple of upsets if they're in the Big Dance.
Each program included is currently no higher than a No. 12 seed on the latest BracketMatrix projections.
Akron Zips
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Win or lose, Akron is going to push the tempo and live on the perimeter offensively.
In the right matchup, the Zips can be a nuisance.
Nate Johnson, Tavari Johnson and Isaiah Gray each average at least 10 points and 2.5 assists, and seven players are hitting one three-pointer per game. Bowen Hardman and Sharron Young are particularly dangerous from long range off the bench.
For good measure, James Okonkwo leads the MAC in rebounds per game. Amani Lyles is flirting with two offensive boards per night as a reserve, as well.
Akron's pace and depth is built to cause plenty of fits in the Big Dance if the Zips win the MAC.
Merrimack Warriors
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How about a potential 16 seed to watch? Hello, Merrimack.
Led by versatile guard Adam Clark, the Warriors are vying for an automatic bid from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. You may recall the MAAC produced Saint Peter's in 2022.
Clark is a serious playmaker on both ends, averaging 19.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.3 rebounds and 2.5 steals. Matt Becht and Devon Savage are high-volume perimeter shooters, combining for more than 14 triples per game and converting at rates above 33 percent.
Size could be a concern for Merrimack—the tallest players in the rotation stand 6'7"—but Saint Peter's had a similar roster in 2022. While that disadvantage is real, it can be overcome.
In a one-game sample, Clark's creativity and a couple of perimeter weapons could propel a stunner.
McNeese Cowboys
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Last season, McNeese rolled to a Southland Conference title and earned a No. 12 seed in March. The matchup with Gonzaga didn't go well, but the Cowboys commanded a ton of respect.
If they get a second chance, expect the same.
McNeese forces turnovers at a top-20 rate nationally thanks to five healthy players averaging a steal per game. The defense atones for the team's unremarkable size with that aggressiveness.
As long as the Cowboys avoid a long-range shootout—they are below 200th nationally in three-point attempt rate and hit a modest 34 percent—they could be an absolute pest in the Big Dance.
And if expected star Alyn Breed manages to return from a knee injury, McNeese will be more dangerous in a hurry.
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Northern Colorado Bears
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Flying well under the radar is Northern Colorado, which happens to lead the country in field-goal percentage.
If you're going to be really good at one thing, that's certainly not a bad place to start.
Four players are scoring in double figures, led by Isaiah Hawthorne and Langston Reynolds both around 17 points. Reynolds and Jaron Rillie are also averaging at least 3.5 assists, while Hawthorne, Zach Bloch, Quinn Denker and Marcell McCreary each attempt three-plus triples per night at 35 percent or better.
Shaky defense will be a concern in the Big Sky tourney, but Northern Colorado's offensive upside is clear.
Samford Bulldogs
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After winning the SoCon last season, Samford put a serious scare into Kansas during the NCAA tournament. Were it not for a late controversial call, the Bulldogs might've even sprung an upset.
The roster has undergone a considerable change compared to that group, but Samford is still thriving.
Head coach Bucky McMillan's aggressive style—lots of threes and full-court pressing—is reflected in a 10-man rotation with six competent long-range options. Trey Fort and Jaden Brownell both score 13-plus points per game, while Rylan Jones is the team's catalyst at 5.2 assists per outing in addition to his 11.6 points.
Samford showed in 2024 that "Bucky Ball" can be effective against high-end teams. If the Bulldogs earn a second chance, a top-five seed likely won't be thrilled to see them.
UC San Diego Tritons
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The fastest way to change a game is turnovers.
That, of course, can be an immense positive or a glaring negative. So far this season, however, UC San Diego has found itself on the latter end of that conversation in impressive fashion.
To date, the Tritons force turnovers at the second-highest rate in the nation with their giveaways at the 12th-lowest mark. Senior guard Hayden Gray is an absolute menace on the defensive side and leads the country at 3.5 steals per contest, and junior Chris Howell is above two steals as well.
Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is the driver of the offense, slashing his way to 19.8 points per game while adding a team-high 3.4 assists. Tyler McGhie launches 8.1 threes per night at a great 40.1 clip, too.
UC San Diego's blend of elite turnover rates, a star player and a deep backcourt is a very appealing profile.
Yale Bulldogs
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This one almost feels boring, given that Yale celebrated upset victories in the 2016 and 2024 tourneys.
Doesn't make it any less accurate, though!
Yale boasts an unbeaten record in conference play behind an efficient offense that doesn't take a high volume of threes but is exceptional at them. John Poulakidas, Nick Townsend and Bez Mbeng, the core of the Bulldogs' scoring attack, all knock down 42-plus percent from long distance.
Plus, the Ivy League favorites corral a quality amount of offensive rebounds at 35.0 percent (58th nationally) and surrender only 25.2 percent of them (18th).
Winning the perimeter and controlling the glass is a great recipe for Yale to send another high seed home early.
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