Why Derek Carr Can Be a Super Sophomore with the Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders have good reason to believe second-year quarterback Derek Carr will become a franchise quarterback, but there are still lingering concerns about his play. The concerns are due in large part to the lack of talent around him in 2014 and normal rookie growing pains.

Skeptics will point to his ultra-low yards per attempt and completion percentage numbers in 2014 as reasons Carr will slump as a sophomore, but there are many more reasons why he’ll be a super sophomore for the Raiders. Vastly improved talent will make a huge difference for Carr, but history is also on his side.

We already know Carr is a leader with a good work ethic that has been around the game for a long time. We also know he has a strong arm, and he’s mobile. He looks the part, but maybe even more so after 599 pass attempts as a rookie.

The Derek Carr Experience

Since 1920, only Andrew Luck has attempted more passes as a rookie than Carr. Luck’s completion percentage was lower, he took 17 more sacks and threw six more interceptions than Carr did his rookie season. He also threw two more touchdowns with more yards per attempt.

Sam Bradford is the only player since 1920 to complete more passes than Carr as a rookie. He finished with a slightly better completion percentage, three fewer touchdowns, three more interceptions and 10 more sacks than Carr did.  

Rookie QB	Year	Cmp%	Yds	TD
Rookie QB	Int	Sk	Y/A	ANY/A
Andrew Luck	2012	54.07	4374	23
Derek Carr	2014	58.1	3270	21
Sam Bradford	2010	60	3512	18
Andrew Luck	18	41	6.98	5.66
Derek Carr	12	24	5.46	4.82
Sam Bradford	15	34	5.95	4.73

The general idea is that for 599 pass attempts, Carr did just fine. Luck has kept getting better, and injuries derailed Bradford’s career, but he also improved when he was on the field. An overly conservative offensive coordinator and virtually no running game alone adequately explain Carr’s low yards per attempt.

If it didn’t, his performance in the red zone would be tough to explain other than to dismiss it entirely as a small sample. If you think about it, it makes little sense Carr would mysteriously get a lot better in the red zone where defenses condense and passing typically gets more difficult.

Carr was actually among the best quarterbacks in the league in the red zone. His rookie season stands out to a significant degree in this area.

Player	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	ANY/A
Tony Romo	62.3	271	19	2	3	9.8
Kirk Cousins	60	117	7	0	1	9.5
Derek Carr	60.4	185	18	1	1	9.3
Alex Smith	62.3	310	16	0	7	8.9
Teddy Bridgewater	73.1	162	9	1	5	8.5
Matt Ryan	63.1	220	19	0	4	8.3
Peyton Manning	65.1	470	25	1	2	8.2
Tom Brady	55.7	293	25	2	5	8.2
Drew Brees	65.1	368	25	3	3	8.2

In the red zone, Carr completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 185 yards and 18 touchdowns, one interception and one sack. On a minimum of 25 attempts, Carr trailed only Tony Romo and Kirk Cousins in Pro-Football-Reference.com’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) statistic and only Romo on a minimum of 30 attempts in the red zone.

Carr’s performance in the red zone compares favorably with Russell Wilson’s rookie season. It’s also better than Aaron Rodgers’ first year as a starter. Carr’s red-zone stats, like his counting stats, don’t seem to make any sense in context of averaging just 5.5 per attempt.

Player	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	ANY/A
Russell Wilson	58.3	261	18	0	3	9.5
Derek Carr	60.4	185	18	1	1	9.3
Robert Griffin	63.2	111	10	0	4	6.6
Andrew Luck	50.7	269	15	2	3	6.2
Matt Ryan	50.8	247	9	2	2	5.0

Yes, it’s a small sample, but it’s still a noteworthy one. Not including Carr, the top seven quarterbacks in red-zone ANY/A over the last five years are Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Rodgers and Romo (minimum 50 attempts).

Rodgers, Manning, Romo, Brees and Wilson also top the list of best quarterbacks in overall yards per attempt over the last five years (minimum 300 attempts) along with Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

Now also consider the Raiders had a horrendous running game between the 20s. On the ground between the 20s, the Raiders ran the ball 251 times, had 44 rushing first downs, fumbled 11 times for a turnover percentage of 4.4 percent and averaged just 3.37 yards per attempt.

All five stats were last in the entire league. That’s right, all of them.

Stat	Attempts	First Downs	Fumbles	Turnover %	Yards/Carry
Value	251	44	11	4.4%	3.37
NFL Rank	32	32	32	32	32

Coupled with a defense that fell behind early with great regularity, Carr was usually in a terrible position. The Raiders fell behind by seven or more points by the end of the first quarter in seven games and by the end of the first half in 12 games, both most in the league.

New Weapons

Now consider the weapons Carr had at his disposal last season. One of his best wide receivers was James Jones, who was released this offseason and remains unemployed. His other best receiver was Andre Holmes, who the Raiders gave the low restricted free-agent tender to this offseason. Holmes is also at best the No. 4 receiver now.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Wide receiver Rod Streater got hurt early in the season and so was never able to build on his 2013 season. Simply put, Carr didn’t have a single playmaker with speed or run-after-the-catch ability. Some of his best options were move tight end Mychal Rivera and a fullback Marcel Reece.

Trying to use the short passing game as the running game was a disaster for Carr’s averages. The Raiders struggled to push the ball deep as well, which is an area Carr can legitimately improve, so the defense sat on the underneath passing game.

Look no further than Carr’s red-zone incompletions to get a sense of his struggles. Of his 19 incomplete passes in the red zone, one was to Kenbrell Thompkins, two to Darren McFadden, three to Denarius Moore and four to Brice Butler. Collectively, the four were 2-for-12 and accounted for more than half of his incomplete passes in the red zone.

Carr was 30-of-39 with 17 touchdowns to Jones, Holmes, Rivera, Reece and others. Moore and McFadden are gone. Butler and Thompkins will be battling for a roster spot.

By drafting wide receiver Amari Cooper at No. 4 overall and tight end Clive Walford in the third round, the Raiders have two young weapons to go with the signing of veteran receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Roy Helu Jr. Getting a healthy Streater back will also be significant.

The Super Sophomore

Based on how things were stacked against Carr last year, it’s a lot more reasonable to believe the Raiders will get more red-zone Carr in 2015 and less between-the-20s Carr. If he also takes a step forward in his own development, that could be a winning recipe for the Raiders.

What we know is that sophomore slumps are a myth. In fact, sophomore quarterbacks typically get a little better or stay the same on average, per research by Scott Kacsmar for Cold Hard Football Facts. Since 1981, sophomore quarterbacks have increased their attempts per game, completion percentage, yards per game, yards per attempt and reduced their interception percentage.

As Kacsmar summed it up:

"

There is no sophomore slump. This is the year you take it to the next level, because that is what you are supposed to do.

"

A poor statistical season is not enough evidence to suggest Carr can’t improve significantly. Many quarterbacks do improve as sophomores. Per Gil Brandt of NFL.com, Manning, Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, Sammy Baugh and John Hadl are just a few of the names that turned things around after struggling as rookies.

Here are some of the best sophomore quarterbacks in NFL history, per Kacsmar for Bleacher Report. Included on the list is a player like Roethlisberger, who attempted fewer passes in his first two seasons than Carr attempted in his rookie season alone.

With all the added support, Carr is poised to be a super sophomore for the Oakland Raiders. 

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com.