Why the Heavily Favored Los Angeles Rams Are a Bad Super Bowl Futures Bet

The Los Angeles Rams are a considerably large Super Bowl favorite, and it's easy to understand why.

After all, the Rams—who were already led by a championship-winning head coach and the reigning MVP at quarterback as the NFL's highest-scoring team in 2025—dramatically bolstered their defense in the offseason. 

That unit is now anchored by the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett, following a June 1 trade with Cleveland that moved Sean McVay's squad into "heavy fave" territory. 

But we've learned throughout this era of professional football that being a sizable favorite doesn't always result in the capture of the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

The Rams have a lot of work to do.

Precedents Aren't On Their Side

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Myles Garrett

At the moment at DraftKings, the Rams are +550 to win Super Bowl LXI at their home venue in Inglewood, California, while nobody else has odds lower than +1000.

They won the only other Super Bowl played at SoFi Stadium in 2021 in a similar all-in scenario with a veteran team, but they didn't actually enter that campaign as the favorites. 

In fact, the Kansas City Chiefs were paying even less than these Rams as a +450 preseason Super Bowl favorite that year, but Kansas City couldn't get past the AFC Championship Game. 

The reality is, clear-cut favorites have often struggled to deliver titles in the 21st century. Here's a look at every team that has been a preseason favorite by a gap of at least 250 points in terms of Super Bowl odds since the turn of the century: 

• 2021 Chiefs: +450 -- Lost AFC Championship

• 2019 Patriots: +400 -- Lost in Wild Card Round

• 2018 Patriots: +600 -- Won Super Bowl

• 2017 Patriots: +275 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2009 Patriots: +450 -- Lost in Wild Card Round

• 2008 Patriots: +350 -- Missed playoffs

• 2007 Patriots: +250 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2002 Rams: +350 -- Missed playoffs 

Meanwhile, here's the fate of Super Bowl favorites with odds below +600 during that same span:

• 2024 Chiefs: +500 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2021 Chiefs: +450 -- Lost AFC Championship

• 2020 Chiefs: +450 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2019 Patriots: +400 -- Lost in Wild Card Round

• 2017 Patriots: +275 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2015 Seahawks: +450 -- Lost in Divisional Round

• 2014 Seahawks: +450 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2011 Patriots: +500 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2009 Patriots: +450 -- Lost in Wild Card Round

• 2008 Patriots: +350 -- Missed playoffs

• 2007 Patriots: +250 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2004 Eagles: +400 -- Lost Super Bowl

• 2002 Rams: +350 -- Missed playoffs

• 2001 Rams: +400 -- Lost Super Bowl

The last team to enter a season as a favorite with odds inside +600 and win the Super Bowl was the 1994 San Francisco 49ers. And back then, odds in that range were much more common. 

The Division Is a Problem

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Sam Darnold

It doesn't help that the Rams are stuck in arguably the best division in the NFL. 

The Seattle Seahawks won the whole thing last year. As per usual, the defending champs took some shots in the offseason and could be victimized by a Super Bowl hangover this season, but the talent on that Mike Macdonald-coached roster is undeniable. 

It's hard to imagine they won't be extremely competitive in 2026. 

Meanwhile, a San Francisco 49ers team that beat these Rams in L.A. on short rest last season should be feared. The Niners remarkably lost only five games and eliminated the defending champion Eagles from the playoffs, despite the fact they ranked in the bottom six in terms of adjusted games lost to injury on both offense and defense. 

If injury luck is even remotely in their favor for once in 2026—and these things do tend to regress to the mean—Kyle Shanahan's team could make a deep run just like it did in 2022 and 2023. 

The point is, the Rams are likely to have their hands full just getting out of the NFC West. And if they do survive that part of the journey, what kind of shape might one of the league's oldest teams look like on the other side when it has to go toe-to-toe with veteran-rich contenders like the Eagles, Bills, Ravens, Chiefs or Patriots?

The Cliff Factor 

AP Photo/Jayne Kamin-Oncea

Matthew Stafford

It's also possible that the acquisitions of Garrett, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson came too late, and that the Rams' window has already closed. 

Stafford is coming off an MVP season, but there is a decent chance that was his peak considering that he's 38 and that his receiving corps severely lacks depth. 

There isn't a lot of talent or experience beyond Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at that position, which is far from ideal since Adams is 33 years old and the depth behind them is unproven. If faced with extended stretches without either or both, Stafford could be in trouble.

Adams did miss several games last season, and no other receiver on the roster caught 20 passes or scored more than a touchdown. They did practically nothing to address that lack of depth this offseason, while using just their second first-round pick in the last decade on a backup quarterback. 

Defensively, Garrett undoubtedly looks like an upgrade over Jared Verse. But Verse was the league's Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2024. With Verse gone and Ty Simpson unlikely to be a factor, the team won't have a single in-house first-round pick in a starting role in 2026. 

What happens if injuries hit? What if Stafford finally fades? What if the Browns saw a pending decline from a now-30-year-old Garrett and pulled the trigger on a sell-high trade?

It might not take much for the bottom to fall out on this Rams team. 

All of this is to say, don't get carried away with this overwhelming favorite.