
British Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Silverstone Race
Sixty-five years after hosting the very first race of the Formula One world championship era, Silverstone will once again be the place to be for the 2015 British Grand Prix.
Nico Rosberg heads into the race on a high after a crushing victory in Austria. The gap to team-mate Lewis Hamilton at the top of the standings is now just 10 points—can he cut it further, or will Hamilton hit back at his home race?
Lower down the order, the two Ferraris of Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen may also be set for a tight duel. The Finn is desperate for a good result after a run of disappointments and could be the beneficiary as multi-stop tyre strategies look set to make a return.
Williams should be next up and both drivers are safe bets for top 10 finishes. But for Lotus, Red Bull, Force India and Toro Rosso, it'll be a frantic battle for the final points-paying positions—and even McLaren might add to their total.
We're due a great race and Silverstone could just be the circuit to provide it.
Here's how we think the weekend will go.
Lewis Hamilton Will Win a Tight Duel with Nico Rosberg
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For the first time since 1964, and for only the second time in F1 history, a British reigning world champion will arrive at his home race leading the title race.
Jim Clark gave his ultimately unsuccessful defence a boost by winning the 1964 British Grand Prix—and Lewis Hamilton can do the same in 2015.
Hamilton is in a bit of a rut, having won only one of the last four races. Monaco was lost to a strategic error by his team, but in both Spain and Austria he was outperformed by team-mate Nico Rosberg.
The gap between the pair at the head of the championship is down to just 10 points. It seems almost certain one will add to his tally of wins in Silverstone—but which one?
Rosberg qualified on pole last season and led the race before retiring, gifting the win to Hamilton. In 2013 it was Hamilton on pole; he also led until his tyre exploded, handing the win to Rosberg.
Both have good records in Britain, but no driver on the grid will be more fired up and eager to beat his team-mate than Hamilton. Being obliterated by Rosberg in Austria will have hurt, and we saw last season how dangerous the reigning champion can be when he's on the ropes.
Expect him to come out on top in both qualifying and the race—but Rosberg won't be far behind.
Kimi Raikkonen Will Be Back on the Podium
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To say that Kimi Raikkonen is on a bad run would be an understatement. After a decent start to the year that saw him partially overcome poor qualifying displays with good speed in the races, the Iceman's season has gone downhill faster than Hermann Maier.
Fifth in Spain, sixth in Monaco, fourth in Canada and a first-lap crash in Austria—Raikkonen has scored just 30 points from the last four races. In the same period, team-mate Sebastian Vettel, despite car troubles in Canadian qualifying and a poor pit stop in Austria, has chalked up 55.
After such a run, and bearing in mind what happened at last season's British Grand Prix, one could forgive Raikkonen if he approaches the weekend with a little apprehension.
But he still has enough of his natural ability left to pull a great result out of the bag, and Silverstone is a circuit that should play to one of his strengths—tyre management.
The Finn looks after his rubber better than most of his rivals, including Vettel, and Sunday's race should involve more than a little bit of tyre-nursing. In addition, Vettel hasn't always been at his best at Silverstone—in their time together, Mark Webber tended to be closer here than just about anywhere else.
So though Vettel will almost certainly qualify ahead, we're backing Raikkonen to be the man on the third step of the podium on Sunday.
McLaren Will Score a Point or 2
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McLaren had their worst race of the season in Austria. After both drivers started on the back row with additional in-race penalties to serve, Jenson Button managed just nine laps before a sensor failure resulted in a precautionary retirement.
Fernando Alonso, meanwhile, lasted just two corners before being taken out by Kimi Raikkonen. Both McLarens also retired in Canada.
But the team introduced a significant aerodynamic upgrade at the last race, both drivers will have almost brand-new power units and Silverstone is as much about the chassis as it about the engine.
Last time F1 visited a venue like that—the Circuit de Catalunya—Alonso looked to have a reasonable chance of points before his car broke down.
McLaren aren't going to put both cars in the top 10 and finish there on pace alone. But if one or two quicker rivals drop out—and the MP4-30s can keep going—expect them to pick up the pieces.
Top Rookie: Carlos Sainz Jr.
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Of the three rookies who head into the British Grand Prix with a realistic chance of scoring points, the two Toro Rosso drivers stand out.
The Silverstone circuit is heavy on high-speed corners, a major strength of the STR10. It was at least as quick as the Red Bull around the Circuit de Catalunya early in the year—Carlos Sainz Jr. and Max Verstappen proved this by locking out the third row in qualifying.
Their race pace wasn't as good, but both are still learning in that respect and can't realistically be expected to match someone like Daniel Ricciardo over a race distance.
Looking ahead to Silverstone, Sainz has experience of the circuit, having raced here before in Formula Three and GP3. He has also proved the better qualifier over the course of the season, beating Verstappen 5-3; on fully dry tracks, the figure is 5-1.
Providing the Spaniard avoids any unforeseen grid penalties, we therefore expect to see him start ahead of his younger team-mate then finish ahead in Sunday's race.
A Return to 2-Stop Racing
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Despite Pirelli supplying their two softest tyre compounds, the last three grands prix have seen one-stop strategies strongly favoured. The tight twists of Monaco, big stops of Canada and hard acceleration zones of Austria didn't challenge the rubber at all.
But Silverstone is a very different beast.
With a host of fast, tyre-torturing corners, the British circuit will provide a stern test for the medium and hard compound tyres.
Last year's race was unusual because the first-lap red flag gave everyone a free tyre change before the action resumed. The tyres then performed surprisingly well and most drivers were able to complete the race with just one further stop.
But Kimi Raikkonen isn't going to fly across the run-off area onto the Wellington Straight again, there'll be no first-lap stoppage and Pirelli will finally deliver another multi-stop race.
A two/three split like Malaysia would be pushing it unless track temperatures go through the roof, but expect all the front-runners to make at least two visits to the pits.

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