Does Drafting Myles Turner at No. 11 Reshape Indiana Pacers' Future?

For the Indiana Pacers, the NBA draft and the No. 11 pick was an opportunity to build depth and begin a stylistic shift. They settled on Myles Turner, a 6'11", 239-pound center from the University of Texas. 

Turner is big and talented, two indisputably positive characteristics. However, he was one of the most raw players available in the draft, and it would be surprising if he became an immediate contributor. Even if he does come along quickly, his skill set does not appear to be a great fit for the changes the Pacers hope to make.

At the end of this season, team president Larry Bird talked specifically about stylistic changes he'd like to see from the team next season, per Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star:

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I was talking to coach earlier; we'd like to play a little faster tempo, and that means we've got to run a little faster, maybe at times play a little smaller. We just got into it, so I don't know what style, but we'd like to change it a little bit. … But I would like to score more points, and to do that, you've got to run.

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It's hard to reconcile those intentions with the player Turner is at this point in his career. In a prospect profile at DraftExpress, Derek Bodner focused on Turner's incongruity for an uptempo game, saying, "Turner noticeably lumbers getting up and down the floor, and only made five field goals (out of 13 attempts) all season in transition situations according to Synergy Sports Technology."

In the lead-up to the draft, Turner and his agent released the results of a detailed physical analysis focused on his gait and running mechanics. The findings were that some of his lumbering running style was because of correctable muscle imbalances. However, even if he becomes a more mobile player, his offensive skill set doesn't appear to open things up considerably for the Pacers.

Here's Bodner again, from the same DraftExpress profile:

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That jump shot is both his biggest strength and, at times, his biggest weakness, as it plays a pivotal role in every facet of his offensive game. According to Synergy Sports Technology, Turner posts up on roughly 40% of his half-court field goal attempts, a sizable number for a freshman big. Upon further inspection, though, a very significant portion of those, especially over his right shoulder, are turnaround jump shots out of the post, which he finds mixed results with. Turner also moves well without the ball, but his most frequent rotation is to flash the middle of a zone for a foul-line jumper. He also shows some potential as a pick-and-roll player, but is almost twice as likely to settle for the pick-and-pop jumper rather than roll to the basket.

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There are some intriguing strengths here. A near seven-foot jump-shooter can be an enormous asset in today's NBA, stretching the defense and pulling an opposing big man away from the basket. The issue is how that jump shot is used. As Bodner highlights, most of Turner's opportunities come from posting up on the low block or taking mid-range jumpers out of the pick-and-roll.

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For the past few seasons, the frontcourt components to Indiana's offense have been Roy Hibbert post-ups and David West pick-and-pops. Neither of those elements were particularly efficient overall. The fact that both operated almost entirely inside the three-point line also made spacing a challenge. Having both big defenders around the basket made penetration a challenge and allowed perimeter defenders to stay home on shooters. The end result was an offense that often stagnated and couldn't move a defense to find open shots.

Turner doesn't look like someone who will help speed up the pace or offer variety in the half-court offense. The offensive role he played in college seems too similar to how West and Hibbert have functioned to initiate any sort of systemic change. Even if his tantalizing jump shot is meant to be a spot-up weapon, he doesn't have three-point range—Turner made just 17 of 62 three-pointers in college (27.4 percent). Without that extra few feet of range, Indiana's perimeter players are still going to find it hard to find space for penetration.

On the defensive end, Turner has potential as a solid rim defender and rebounder. He is not yet a great pick-and-roll defender, and Indiana's system—which usually asks the big man to sag into the paint and protect the basket—should help minimize some of his weaknesses. But if Turner doesn't ultimately offer a more diverse offensive game, the Pacers are likely in for a similar challenge as they've faced the past few seasons—scrambling to score just enough points to support their great defense.

Altogether, there is some distance between Turner and carving out niche as a reliable NBA contributor. He has talent, but getting there is no sure thing. Layne Vashro's draft prospect projection model gives Turner just a 29 percent chance of developing in a quality starter or better.

However, the gamble on Turner's combination of talent and size may have been essential for the Pacers, fit and timelines aside. It was reported during the draft that Hibbert decided to exercise his player option and stay with Indiana next season.

However, Hibbert will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season. Earlier this week, West declined his player option for next season, becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer and all but ending his time in Indiana. A year from now, there are likely to be some enormous holes in the team's frontcourt, and they are clearly banking on Turner being able to help fill them.

Both Turner and the team appear to be aware of the work that lies ahead of them. After his June 14 workout with Indiana, Turner took the time to point out that the process was a learning experience, as Buckner reported:

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I think teams know what I'm capable of, they've been watching me since high school and they just kind of want to see me be coached by the coaches, take in what they have to say and just play. I wanted to make sure I acknowledged the fact that (assistant coach Nate McMillan) was trying to show me something. You want to learn in all these workouts as well.

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Speaking with the media after Turner's selection, head coach Frank Vogel also used the vocabulary of cautious patience in praising his new center, per Buckner:

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He's young, obviously he's going to take some time. We feel like his upside two years, three years from now may be more exciting than what we see this year. But we do feel that he can contribute this year with his ability to shoot the basketball and protect the rim and the way we want to play. Certainly he's a young prospect but a lot of reason to be excited about it.

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The Pacers seem to like the idea of Turner as their center of the future. You can see the appeal of a player with his size, defensive potential, soft touch and shooting ability. But despite what Vogel said, Turner doesn't seem to offer much to Indiana's present. It's hard to see how he helps remake the team into the small and flexible, uptempo squad that management said they wanted.

The questions then become how fast can the Pacers develop him to the point of utility, and what does the rest of this team look like by the time he gets there?