NASCAR at Sonoma 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for Toyota-Save Mart 350
Sunday’s Toyota-Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway will be the first of two road course races in the next seven weeks.
Sonoma is a picturesque area of rolling hills about 35 miles north of San Francisco. Not only is it a great place for fans to watch a race, it’s also one of the more competitive races on the Cup circuit.
Drivers love to beat and bang at Sonoma and it’s rare to find even one car without a scratch on it.
While there are plenty of drivers who have had success there like Jeff Gordon (five wins), Sonoma of late has become a place for first-time road course winners.
Kurt Busch won in 2011, Clint Bowyer won in 2012, Martin Truex Jr. won in 2013 and Carl Edwards won there last year.
Who will win this Sunday? It could be anyone—and that’s what makes racing at Sonoma so enjoyable. It's what I like to call the unpredictability factor, because there’s fewer tracks more unpredictable than the little track in the middle of Wine Country.
By the Numbers: Sonoma Raceway
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Toyota-Save Mart 350
Place: Sonoma Raceway
Date: Sunday, June 28
Time: 4 p.m. (ET)
TV: Fox Sports 1, 3 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Performance Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 110 laps, 218.9 miles (12-turn, 1.99-mile road course)
Defending winner: Carl Edwards
Youngest winner: Kyle Busch on June 22, 2008 (23 years, one month, 20 days)
Oldest winner: Ricky Rudd on June 23, 2002 (45 years, nine months, 11 days)
Youngest pole winner: Joey Logano on June 26, 2011 (21 years, one month, two days)
Oldest pole winner: Rusty Wallace on June 25, 2000 (43 years, 10 months, 11 days)
Most wins: Jeff Gordon (five)
Most poles: Jeff Gordon (five)
Most race starts at Sonoma: Jeff Gordon (22)
Most laps led: 457 (Jeff Gordon)
Best average start (active driver): Jeff Gordon (7.818)
Best average finish (active driver): Jeff Gordon (7.955)
Track notes
—Total number of races at Sonoma to date: 26
—Total number of different pole winners in Sonoma history: 18
—Races won from pole: Five
—Race record: Clint Bowyer, 83.624 mph (June 24, 2012)
—Qualifying record: Jamie McMurray, 96.35 mph (June 22, 2014)
—Number of race winners at Sonoma: 18
—Most top fives: Jeff Gordon (14)
—Most top 10s: Jeff Gordon (18)
All information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.
Key Storylines
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Penske puzzle continues
Joey Logano may be third in the standings and teammate Brad Keselowski is sixth, yet the two Penske Racing teammates continue to fall short of Victory Lane. Logano hasn’t won a race in the last 14, while Keselowski hasn’t won a race in the last 10. Both are decent road course drivers. Can this be the week one of them breaks through to finally earn their second checkered flag of the season?
Roush redundancy
Given its past success there, Roush Fenway Racing was looking for a strong run at Michigan two weeks ago. Unfortunately, Trevor Bayne was the highest-finishing driver for the team at ninth. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished 25th, while Greg Biffle was a very disappointing 36th. While optimism had been building that RFR was going to start a turnaround at Michigan, it was more of the same. And things don’t look much better Sunday at Sonoma.
Kurt, Kurt, Kurt
After winning the rain-shortened race at Michigan, making him a two-time winner this season, can Kurt Busch make it three wins in 2015 this Sunday? History is on his side: He won there in 2011 and has six top-five finishes in 14 starts there.
Harvick hypothesis
Kevin Harvick tied a longtime NASCAR record at Michigan, becoming the first driver to record 10 top-two finishes in the first 15 races in a season since Richard Petty in 1969. The pride of Bakersfield, California, used to be a terrible road course driver, but has definitely improved and upped his game over the years. But his record at Sonoma is still mediocre: zero wins, three top-five and five top-10 finishes in 14 career starts.
Can Junior do it again?
Dale Earnhardt Jr. could very well be the worst road course driver in recent history at Sonoma. In 15 career starts, Junior has just one—count ‘em, one—top-five finish. His next best finish: 11th, which he’s accomplished three other times. However, Earnhardt earned that lone top-five finish in last year’s race. Was it a fluke, or a sign of even better things to come?
Drivers to Watch
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Kyle Busch
The younger Busch needs a win, pronto. And then he needs to earn enough points in the next 11 races to get into the top 30 to qualify for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Each passing race that he fails to do so leaves him further removed from making the Chase. Busch has won at Sonoma in the past (2008) and is one of the better road course drivers on the circuit. While going back and forth and left and right could be tiring on his previously broken right leg and fractured left foot, Busch will have just one thing on his mind Sunday: win!
While Smoke has struggled miserably this season, he does have two prior wins at Sonoma. Of course, those triumphs came much earlier in his career (2001 and 2005), meaning he’s failed to win there for the last nine years. Much like Kyle Busch having a sense of urgency to win a race, Stewart is in somewhat the same box. But he has somewhat of an edge over Busch because if Stewart wins Sunday and can keep himself in the top 30, he’ll likely make the Chase. But he has to win Sunday, or his waning Chase hopes will get even darker.
Kasey Kahne
Kahne won at Sonoma in 2009, proving he has the mettle for road course racing. He’s had decent runs since then at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen, but far too often has been involved in things not necessarily of his doing. Kahne is always a threat to win—or at least do well—every time he takes to a road course.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
As we said earlier, Earnhardt is one of the worst road course drivers on the planet. But there is definitely some optimism after he finished a surprising—and career-best—third in last year’s race at Sonoma. Was that a one-off, or has he finally turned the corner (no road course pun intended)? If he earns another top-five, or a top-10 at the very least, might it be that Junior has shockingly and suddenly become a road course ringer?
Clint Bowyer
Hard as it may seem to believe, Sonoma is Bowyer’s best-performing track on the circuit with a 9.2 average finish in nine career starts at Sonoma. The Kansas driver, who grew up racing on short tracks, has become a natural road course racer and is definitely a candidate to potentially win Sunday. Bowyer is yet another driver who desperately needs a win to make this year’s Chase. He couldn’t pick a better time or venue than Sunday at Sonoma.
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Favorites
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Jeff Gordon
Gordon has earned the most wins of any driver in Sonoma history (five). And even though he hasn’t won there since 2006, Gordon is always a threat to win. Plus, with this being his final season in Sprint Cup, what better place for Gordon to finally get his first win of the season than at the track near where he was born and spent the first 11 years of his life (Vallejo, California)? It would be such an emotional finish if Gordon wins there. Plus, it would also clinch his spot in the upcoming Chase.
Tony Stewart
Is this the race that Stewart finally breaks out of the huge slump he’s been in, the worst start of his 16-year Sprint Cup career? I’ve said several times that June is typically where Stewart starts getting hot. Well, as much as I hate to remind Stewart, this is the last race of June. I’m not giving up on Stewart, no matter how bad he’s looked this year. Plus, he’s a two-time winner at Sonoma, so he knows how to win there.
Martin Truex Jr.
Given the great season Truex has had thus far, plus the fact that he earned his second career Sprint Cup victory at Sonoma in 2013, how can you not make Truex one of the favorites in Sunday’s race? When you have things going your way and a ton of momentum, as Truex has had this season, it’s hard to pick against him. Look for Truex to earn another top-five, at least, if not go all the way to Victory Lane.
Jimmie Johnson
While I originally planned on picking JJ as the dark horse to win Sunday’s race, the more I looked at his overall record at Sonoma, I quickly realized he belongs as a potential favorite as well. In 13 career starts at the twisting road course, Johnson has one win, four top-five and eight top-10 finishes. And given that he’s already won four races in 2015, how can you not consider him as a potential winner Sunday?
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
I know I’m really going out on a limb with this pick, but there was something about the way Earnhardt drove in last year’s race at Sonoma that made me a believer in his road course ability and prowess. Finishing third, a career-best and his first top-10 finish at Sonoma, Earnhardt looked like someone who suddenly had a light switch flip on and he suddenly “got it.”
Dark-Horse Pick: Kevin Harvick
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While I was originally going to pick Carl Edwards, who won last year race at Sonoma, my gut is telling me otherwise.
As in Kevin Harvick, current points leader in the Sprint Cup Series.
Given everything he’s accomplished this season—as well as winning the Sprint Cup championship last season—it’s about time Harvick visits Victory Lane at Sonoma.
In 14 starts there, Harvick has managed just three top-five and two other top-10 finishes. Plus, he hails from Bakersfield, about 300 miles away, so technically this is a “home race” for Harvick.
If he’s ever going to win at Sonoma, Sunday will be the day—especially since so many will likely not expect it. What better definition of dark horse is there?
And the Winner Is: Jeff Gordon
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Call me a sentimentalist.
Accuse me of picking from an emotional viewpoint and I’ll quickly plead guilty.
But given all that Sonoma has meant to him, including five wins (the most of any other driver), and the surrounding area being where he spent the first 11 years of his life, how can you pick against the driver of the No. 24?
What a script this would make: Local boy goes on to become one of the most legendary heroes in the sport and in his final season puts an exclamation on his career by winning in what used to be his old backyard.
How could you pick anyone else but Jeff Gordon?
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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