NHL Draft 2015: 10 Bold Predictions for This Year's Event

The dust has settled on the 2015 season, and it’s time for the offseason to begin in earnest as the hockey world turns its attention toward the annual NHL draft.

It’s inevitable for every NHL draft to have at least two surprises. In 2010, for example, Cam Fowler fell to the Anaheim Ducks at No. 12 even though some scouting services had him ranked as the third-best prospect in the draft.

On the flip side, the Philadelphia Flyers chose Travis Sanheim 17th overall last year even though NHL Central Scouting Service ranked him 53rd among North American skaters.

Here’s a look at 10 bold predictions ahead of the 2015 NHL draft. The word bold is in the headline for a reason, as the predictions go against the grain for the most part.

10. Ilya Samsonov Will Don a Jersey in the First Round

It’s a bold prediction in a sense that drafting Ilya Samsonov in the first round would be a bold move. Not only did he recently sign a three-year contract with the KHL’s Metallurg Magnitogorsk, but it’s also risky in general to invest a top-30 selection on a netminder. There have only been six goaltenders drafted with first-round picks in the last eight years partially because of how hard it is to project the future of a young puck-stopper.

Samsonov, whom Central Scouting ranked as the top European goalie in the draft, might be worth the risk because he’s believed to have the potential to develop into one of the NHL’s future star netminders. He covers a lot of net with his 6’4”, 203-pound stature, shows good instincts and has the ability to make acrobatic saves.

The Edmonton Oilers’ 16th overall selection, which they acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins for David Perron, seems to be the first pick that would make sense for Samsonov, as the Copper and Blue are in need of a future No. 1 goalie. The Buffalo Sabres (21st overall), Philadelphia Flyers (29th overall) and the Arizona Coyotes (30th overall) appear to be other possible destinations for the Russian product.

9. Oliver Kylington Will Fall Outside of the Top 40 Selections

Oliver Kylington has been the draft’s biggest faller. The proof is in the pudding in how Central Scouting dropped him to its sixth-ranked European skater in its final ranking after projecting him as the top Euro midway through the year.

That said, the Swedish blueliner, who is pegged 28th overall by Future Considerations, is still expected to go up to the podium in the latter half of the first round or early second round. He’s regarded as a smart two-way defenseman who reads the ice well and possesses excellent skating abilities. He’s had notable issues with strength and consistency, though.

Despite his raw skill, precedents could play a part in making teams with top-40 selections leery about drafting Kylington. Most prospects who see their stock fall in their draft years struggle to get back on track. Angelo Esposito is a good example of that, as he dropped from a potential top-five pick to 21st overall in 2007. He’s yet to play a single NHL game and was waived by the ECHL’s Fort Wayne Komets this past year.

8. Leafs Will Draft Ivan Provorov Fourth Overall

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Six months ago, it would have been crazy to believe Brandon Wheat Kings blueliner Ivan Provorov would don an NHL sweater before Boston College defender Noah Hanifin. But a lot has changed in that time span with many draft experts, including SportsNet’s Sam Cosentino, ranking the Russia native ahead of the college freshman.

Assuming the Arizona Coyotes pick Erie Otters playmaker Dylan Strome third overall, the bolder prediction is believing the Leafs will select Provorov over London Knights forward Mitchell Marner. The speedy scorer, whom Leafs director of player personnel Mark Hunter is familiar with as he was formerly London’s general manager, produced 44 goals and 126 points in 63 games this past year. He’s elicited some comparisons to former Knight and current Chicago Blackhawks star Patrick Kane.

Provorov would give the Leafs a solid one-two defensive punch next to top 2012 pick Morgan Rielly. He plays a solid two-way game and has the offensive tools to run a power play. He asserted himself as one of the WHL’s top puck-moving defenders as a rookie this past season, notching 15 goals and 61 points in 60 contests.

7. Noah Hanifin Will Fall Outside of the Top Five

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Regarded as the third-best prospect in the draft by most scouts, it would appear that the 6’2”, 205-pound Noah Hanifin is a lock to go third, fourth or fifth overall. But with Erie Otters center Dylan Strome and London Knights winger Mitchell Marner offering clubs high-end talent up front and Brandon Wheat Kings defenseman Ivan Provorov right on Hanifin’s tail, the Norwood, Massachusetts, native could slide beyond the fifth selection.

If Hanifin isn’t selected with a top-five pick, it seems the New Jersey Devils would be sprinting up to podium to draft him sixth overall. It would be similar to when they drafted Swedish blueliner Adam Larsson fourth overall in 2011 after he dropped a spot or two.

Regardless of whether he falls, whoever drafts Hanifin will land a solid two-way defender. He has an enticing blend of a strong skating ability, solid offensive skills, confidence and top-notch hockey sense. He thrived as a freshman at Boston College this past year, netting five goals and 23 points in 37 matches.

6. WHL Will Lead Junior Leagues in Top-30 Picks

Even though the OHL is poised to have the most top-10 picks with Connor McDavid, Dylan Strome, Mitchell Marner and possibly Pavel Zacha and Lawson Crouse, the WHL could feasibly take the cake in the first round among the various junior leagues.

Although only Brandon Wheat Kings defender Ivan Provorov, Seattle Thunderbirds center Mathew Barzal and Kelowna Rockets winger Nick Merkley are locks, the WHL has a handful of other prospects who could don jerseys on Friday. The likes of Prince George Cougars center Jansen Harkins, Portland Winterhawks winger Paul Bittner, Swift Current Broncos winger Jake DeBrusk and Tri-City Americans defensemen Brandon Carlo and Parker Wotherspoon are their best bets.

The QMJHL should challenge the WHL for the honor. The league has a handful of top-end talents like Halifax Mooseheads winger Timo Meier, Shawinigan Cataractes sniper Anthony Beauvillier and Cape Breton Screaming Eagles scorer Evgeny Svechnikov.

5. Avalanche Will Trade the 10th Overall Pick

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With the possibility of Noah Hanifin, Ivan Provorov and Zachary Werenski being off the board by the 10th selection, it would make sense for the Avalanche to trade down to select one of the draft’s better defenders in the 15-22 range or flip the pick for a young blueliner.

There’s no shortage of appealing rearguards expected to hear their names called in the latter half of the first round. Saint John Sea Dogs defenders Thomas Chabot and Jakub Zboril are two of the most notable prospects to point out. They are both skilled two-way defenseman, but Chabot has the edge is offensive skill while Zboril plays the game with more of a physical edge.

As for trading the pick for a young defenseman, the Leafs might be willing to listen about a possible deal involving Dion Phaneuf or Jake Gardiner. Toronto is believed to be shopping Phaneuf while trade rumors have been floating over Gardiner’s head for over a year. The possible Phaneuf deal would likely include Toronto's 24th overall selection and a bad Colorado contract like Brad Stuart going the other way.

4. Blackhawks Will Land a Top-30 Pick

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Chicago is without a top-30 pick after trading its first-round selection to the Arizona Coyotes for Antoine Vermette at the trade deadline. It undoubtedly isn't regretting the deal after hoisting the Stanley Cup for the third time in six years.

In saying that, since the Blackhawks are poised to have some cap issues next year, it makes sense for them to deal Patrick Sharp, who has two years left on his deal at $5.9 million per season, in a trade that involves a top-30 pick. They may have to add their second-round pick or an additional later-round selection to make it work, but it seems feasible nonetheless.

The Washington Capitals, who hold the 21st draft choice, are believed to be interested in the veteran sniper, per Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune. It would make sense for the Coyotes to inquire about Sharp as well, especially since they hold two top-30 picks and are in need of some offensive help.

3. Stars Will Part Ways with Kari Lehtonen

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The draft would be a prime opportunity for Dallas to move on from Kari Lehtonen after his disappointing 2014-15 season. The trade would not only give the Stars cap relief from the Finnish goalie’s $5.9 million cap hit, but it would also allow the club the opportunity to pursue potential unrestricted free agents like Antti Niemi and Michal Neuvirth.

The value of Lehtonen, who posted a 2.94 average and .901 save percentage in 65 games, doesn’t seem to be that clear. On one hand, he appears to be better than his previous season’s numbers imply, as he posted a .919 save percentage in 2013-14 and a .916 save percentage in 2012-13. But on the other hand, at the age of 31, he isn’t exactly getting any younger and has a big cap hit for three more years.

The Buffalo Sabres and Edmonton Oilers appear to make sense for Lehtonen. They are in need of a No. 1 goalie and have the cap space to afford his contract. The San Jose Sharks also might be in the market for a goalie if Niemi takes off.

2. Nick Merkley Will Be Chosen Ahead of Mathew Barzal

Everyone and his/her dog, including Central Scouting, ISS Hockey and Mckeen’s Hockey, believe Mathew Barzal, a Thunderbirds center, will be the first WHL forward chosen in Florida. It is understandable when considering the North Vancouver, British Columbia, native possesses incredible vision, poise and playmaking abilities.

However, Nick Merkley’s high-tempo style could cause an NHL team to feel he has the edge over Barzal. The Calgary, Alberta, native plays the game with a lot of energy while having elite offensive abilities such as a high hockey IQ, good footspeed and great puck skills. He turned his talent into production in his sophomore season with the Rockets, racking up 20 goals and 90 points in 72 games.

The biggest advantage Merkley has on Barzal is that he can play up and down a lineup. He has the edge to his game and work ethic to play a bottom-six role and the skill to develop into a first-line forward. Barzal, meanwhile, is boom or bust in the top six. He doesn’t have the defensive skills or hustle to play a grinder role.

1. Leafs Will Trade Phil Kessel

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The time is now for Toronto to make a big move. It failed to shake up its roster last offseason under former general manager Dave Nonis and paid for it this year. The pressure is on team president Brendan Shanahan to make a significant move at his second draft with the club.

In order for the Leafs to turn a new leaf, Kessel has to go. He disappointed offensively—25 goals and 61 points in 82 games—and failed to put in a valiant effort on several occasions. He looked anything but an $8 million forward this past year.

His eight-team trade list consists of the New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Montreal Canadiens, Los Angeles Kings, Chicago Blackhawks, Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers. The Canadiens make the most sense because they need elite scorers, but it’s hard to imagine the bitter rivals pulling off a blockbuster trade.

The organization that seems to be the best realistic fit for Toronto is Florida. The Panthers can afford to trade an elite young talent like Jonathan Huberdeau because they have a strong pool of young forwards. Moreover, they hold onto the 11th overall selection in the draft. It should entice to Toronto to land another first-round pick or at least trade up from its 24th overall draft choice.