The 6 Most Unpredictable Stocks in the 2015 NBA Draft
The NBA draft is an inexact science to say the least, and no one exemplifies it more than these half-dozen unpredictable prospects.
We're in the middle of draft week, and still several first-round assets are a complete mystery in term of their stock and landing spots.
Sometimes, a player's wide-ranging perceived value is due to his youth, raw skill set and unproven track record. For others, their destination is hard to peg because executives, scouts and analysts have varying opinions on their place in this year's food chain.
Will electrifying point guard Emmanuel Mudiay land in or out of the top five? Which lottery team will actually act on its interest in Willie Cauley-Stein? These are just some of the questions stumping draft followers mere days before the big night in New York.
The following prospects have the most unpredictable stock based on projected draft range, workouts and scouting reports.
*Article focuses on prospects widely projected to land in first round.
*Our projected draft ranges are based on the most recent mock drafts from the following sources: Bleacher Report (Jonathan Wasserman), Basketball Insiders (Alex Kennedy, Joel Brigham, Moke Hamilton, Steve Kyler), DraftExpress.com, NBADraft.net, NBA.com (Scott Howard-Cooper), SB Nation (Kevin O'Connor), Sporting News (Sean Deveney), Sports Illustrated (Chris Mannix), USA Today (Derek Bodner), ESPN (Chad Ford, Jeff Goodman), CBS Sports (Sam Vecenie, Gary Parrish, Zach Harper).
Kelly Oubre, Kansas SG/SF (6'7", Freshman)
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Projected Draft Range: 10-23
2014-15 Stats: 21.0 MPG, 9.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, .444 FG%, .358 3FG%
Thanks to a raw skill set and erratic freshman season, Kansas swingman Kelly Oubre could land anywhere from the late lottery all the way to the 20s on draft night. He's projected as high as No. 10 by CBSSports.com's Zach Harper and as low as No. 23 by NBADraft.net.
He stands nearly 6'7" in shoes, sports a 7'2" wingspan and has abundant athleticism. In addition to this ultra-rangy physical profile, Oubre showed glimpses of outside shooting and slashing potential during his campaign at Kansas. He also offered some sporadic stretches of defense and rebounding.
For all of those upside-related reasons, he has a chance to tempt late-lottery teams and even sneak into the top 10.
But some aspects of Oubre's game make scouts wary.
His ball-handling and shot-creating footwork are still quite raw, and his perimeter accuracy isn't convincing yet. Oubre shot 36 percent from the long range and displayed shaky fundamentals on both ends of the floor. One NBA scout told Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis why the young Jayhawk is a tough prospect to evaluate:
"Kelly’s a real enigma in this draft. He’ll probably go right outside the lottery, but he’s still a long ways away from being a contributor at the NBA level. I want to like him, but I don’t trust his shot at all. He can’t guard anybody. Drove Bill Self out of his mind. Very intriguing athlete, but he doesn’t have any game off the dribble. He had a fairly disappointing season at a place where freshmen usually succeed.
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Oubre could join the likes of fellow wings Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja and Stanley Johnson in the top 10. But unlike the rest of them, he has a chance to get neglected through the next 10 picks and fall to 20th or later.
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame PG (6'4", Senior)
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Projected Draft Range: 13-22
2014-15 Stats: 37.1 MPG, 16.5 PPG, 6.7 APG, .478 FG%, .316 3FG%
Jerian Grant is a rock-solid floor general, brilliant pick-and-roll distributor and a lethal drive-and-dish weapon. The Notre Dame senior isn't a dazzling scorer, but he has enough size and smarts to immediately compete in the NBA.
However, his draft stock is difficult to pinpoint even though he's not a raw or unproven commodity.
Scouts and prognosticators vary on where to place him compared to other point guard prospects, and his age (22 years old) may be unattractive to some teams.
If Cameron Payne is already off the board and the Phoenix Suns are aiming for an athletic guard, he could land at No. 13. There are also multiple mock draft scenarios that project Grant getting drafted after Duke's Tyus Jones, with him landing as late as No. 22 to the Chicago Bulls.
Grant's stock would ultimately be safer in the lottery if he was a more convincing three-point shooter. He shot 35 percent from distance for the balance of his college career, which doesn't beg for lottery selection.
Nevertheless, his speed and slashing prowess could make him an absolute steal at No. 22, and he could outshine the likes of Jones and Utah's Delon Wright.
Emmanuel Mudiay, China PG (6'5", 1996)
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Projected Draft Range: 2-7
2014-15 Stats: 31.5 MPG, 18.0 PPG, 5.9 APG, .478 FG%, .342 3FG%
Earlier this year, Chinese League prodigy Emmanuel Mudiay was widely considered a top-five lock and a potential top-three pick.
While he's still a dark horse to land second or third (he had a second workout with the Los Angeles Lakers), there's a distinct possibility he could fall as far as No. 7.
Mudiay didn't do enough during his 12-game CBA stint and predraft workouts to establish himself as the class' best point guard. He was a dynamic slasher and playmaker, but his shooting was spotty, and he turned the ball over copiously.
The "best point guard" label goes to Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, who's a good bet to land No. 3 with the Philadelphia 76ers if Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns and Duke's Jahlil Okafor land first and second.
Then Duke's Justise Winslow, Latvia's Kristaps Porzingis and Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein could land 4-6, which would leave Mudiay on the board at No. 7.
The Sixers, New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings and Denver Nuggets all need a young point guard for the future. But even as the draft fast approaches, it's impossible to tell which club will actually bite on him.
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky C (7'0", Junior)
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Projected Draft Range: 4-11
2014-15 Stats: 25.9 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG, .572 FG%
Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein has been one of the draft's most fascinating players in recent weeks. He's one of the most unique assets available: He's a 7-footer who offers electrifying defense from every spot on the floor.
"Cauley-Stein is a supreme athlete. You can switch him 1-5. His recovery rate is so quick—second jump, all that kind of stuff," one NBA scout told Grantland.com's Ryen Russillo. "There are all kinds of ways to describe athletes. There is vertical, north-south, east-west. (Cauley-Stein) has all of them."
A player like that could drastically change any lottery team's defense, and as a bonus, Cauley-Stein has shown brief glimpses of offensive potential.
The question is whether that type of prospect is worth a top-five pick.
The New York Knicks, who have heavily scouted WCS and worked him out recently, might take him at No. 4. But for the Bockers and other mid-lottery teams, better offensive options may prove more tempting, and Cauley-Stein could be the odd man out until the late lottery. In addition, his 2014 foot injury and recovery has concerned several executives, according to Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com.
Wings like Justise Winslow and Stanley Johnson may get plucked ahead of him, as well as gifted European scorers Kristaps Porzingis and Mario Hezonja. Cauley-Stein is projected by a few mock drafters to land as low as No. 11 to the Pacers.
WCS is one of the most alluring prospects because he's a no-doubt defensive standout. However, front office decision-makers may not cherish a (mostly) one-way player until the late lottery.
Rashad Vaughn, UNLV SG (6'5", Freshman)
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Projected Draft Range: 17-second round
2014-15 Stats: 32.3 MPG, 17.8 PPG, 4.8 APG, .439 FG%, .383 3FG%
With a sweet-looking jump shot, great backcourt size and creative handles, UNLV prodigy Rashad Vaughn has all the makings of a prolific NBA 2-guard.
As an 18-year-old freshman, he poured in 22.1 points per 40 minutes and sank 38 percent of his triples. While those numbers don't guarantee scoring prowess in the Association, he shows the potential to develop into a dangerous weapon.
His stock and draft landing spot are tough to gauge, however, because UNLV had a rough season and Vaughn struggled with injuries. He's also a young, ball-dominant guard who struggled against top-60 opponents.
Sam Vecenie of CBSSports.com notes Vaughn shot 39 percent from the field and 26 percent from three against top-60 foes, while he shot 46 and 40 percent, respectively, against teams outside the top 60.
How will his jumper-heavy style of play fare in the NBA, and how much of a project is he? Mid-first-round teams may be hesitant to take a chance on a guard who operates inefficiently.
Some analysts predict he'll get plucked as high as No. 17, and even the Atlanta Hawks (No. 15) brought him in to work out. However, other recent mock drafts have placed him as low as No. 27 to the Los Angeles Lakers or even slipping into the second round.
Kevon Looney, UCLA PF (6'9", Freshman)
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Projected Draft Range: 15-23
2014-15 Stats: 30.9 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, .470 FG%, .415 3FG%
Kevon Looney's long arms, tangible shooting skills and long-term upside suggest he's worthy of flirting with the lottery. On the other hand, his unpolished ball-handling skills, extra-raw interior game and underwhelming athleticism look the part of a risky stock.
The UCLA freshman gobbled up a truckload of rebounds (11.9 per 40 minutes) and went 22-of-53 (42 percent) from beyond the arc. Those are two great building blocks to work with, and it shows he could potentially impact the game from inside and out.
Boston Celtics executive Danny Ainge praised the youngster.
"For a 19-year-old kid he has a lot of tools," Ainge told Jay King of MassLive.com. "I just think the combination of length and skill is unique."
Not everyone agrees with Ainge. Looney's small sample size of shooting and lack of convincing shot-creating skills make him a difficult asset to evaluate. One NBA scout doubts that much of Looney's game will translate.
"I’m not sold at all," the scout told Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis. "I think his rebounding was overstated. He doesn’t have the physical tools to get rebounds out of his area. He’s not an elite shooter. So I don’t know what he does that will get people excited."
With such a variance in predraft opinions, it's no wonder Looney is slated to land anywhere from 15th (Atlanta Hawks) to 23rd (Portland Trail Blazers).
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