Duke Basketball Recruiting: Prioritizing Blue Devils' Top 2016 Targets

Duke remains one of the more notable college basketball programs yet to have secured a commitment for its 2016 recruiting class, but that's not for a lack of trying. The Blue Devils are going hard after most of the best prospects in the country, yet none have pledged their future to Mike Krzyzewski and his staff.

With another highly rated class set to arrive this fall, including several players who will be stepping right in to Duke's starting lineup, it is tricky to determine which recruits are more important than others to the Blue Devils' future.

A lot depends on which of these yet-to-play stars will be one-and-done players, much like the trio of guard Tyus Jones, forward Justise Winslow and center Jahlil Okafor this past season.

Duke didn't end up landing most of its 2015 class until after it won the national title, and those one-and-done players had moved on. The same could be the case this year, but the Blue Devils still have to prioritize which prospects are most important to their future plans.

Here's our ranking of Duke's top six 2016 targets, ranked by how vital they are to what Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils hope to achieve in 2016-17.

6. Dennis Smith

Credit: 247Sports

Position: Point guard

Height, weight: 6'3", 180 lbs

247Sports rank: 3rd

Dennis Smith is the nation's top-rated point guard, and he's an in-state prospect whom Duke offered in May 2014, just before North Carolina but after North Carolina State and Wake Forest had already gotten involved.

NC State has been on Smith since late 2013, and it appears to be the favorite to land him, garnering 94 percent of the predictions made in 247Sports' Crystal Ball.

While Duke would love to have Smith, he's not even the Blue Devils' top target at the position. He's more of a backup, one they would go after if their first choice for Derryck Thornton's successor doesn't come on board.

5. Marques Bolden

Credit: 247Sports

Position: Center

Height, weight: 6'10", 235 lbs

247Sports rank: 22nd

Hailing from the same high school in Texas that current Duke guard Matt Jones played at, Marques Bolden has an existing connection with the program that other suitors can't lay claim to. But that might be all the Blue Devils have working in their favor in the race to get Bolden out of Big 12 territory, especially when most of the league's best teams have been pursuing him for much longer.

Bolden received his offer from Duke on June 4, the eighth of nine offers the nation's third-ranked center has received. A week later, though, EJ Holland of 247Sports wrote about how Bolden and fellow Texan De'Aaron Fox have interest in playing together in college. Fox, a point guard, has 12 offers, but Duke isn't one of them.

Duke has been involved in package-deal recruiting before, as Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor openly discussed their desire to be college teammates prior to committing to the Blue Devils on the same day.

If Bolden is serious about playing with Fox, unless Duke makes that prospect a priority as well, it's unlikely it'll be able to prevent the tandem from signing together, minimizing how important Bolden is to 2016-17.

4. Josh Jackson

Credit: 247Sports

Position: Shooting guard

Height, weight: 6'7", 185 lbs

247Sports rank: 2nd

Barring some unforeseen developments during this upcoming season, shooting guard is where Duke is likely to have the most depth. Matt Jones will be a senior in 2016-17, while Grayson Allen would be a junior and Luke Kennard would be a sophomore. One (possibly two) of them could turn pro before then, but there's little chance all three will leave the program.

With that in mind, the 2 is where Duke has the least need for instant contributors from 2016 recruits, and when it comes to landing 5-star prospects, it's hard to convince a kid to come to a program where he won't be able to just step in and be the starter.

Josh Jackson is too highly rated to be a player who would want to have to compete for playing time, especially when he has offers from other schools where that wouldn't be the case. Arizona, Kansas and Louisville are all better opportunities for him in that regard.

Throw in the speculation that he might play overseas for a year rather than head to college—something he's denied vehemently, per Mike DeCourcy of Sporting News—and he's not that high on Duke's list for 2016.

3. Jayson Tatum

Credit: 247Sports

Position: Small forward

Height, weight: 6'8", 195 lbs

247Sports rank: 4th

Duke officially has a 25 percent chance of making Jayson Tatum its next superstar wing, as he has put the Blue Devils in his final four that also includes Kentucky, North Carolina and hometown school Saint Louis. Saint Louis is where Tatum's father, Justin, played in the 1990s, and that could be Duke's top competition to get him.

If that's the case, it will have to act soon, since Steve Clark of Scout.com wrote earlier this month that Tatum could make a decision by the end of July.

Tatum is currently practicing with Team USA for the upcoming U19 FIBA World Championship in Greece, where he'll be playing for Arizona coach Sean Miller but will still be getting plenty of attention from Duke.

The Blue Devils have had success in drawing players with Team USA connections in the past, with Coach K's long tenure as head coach of the pro team helping in that regard.

Tatum's skill set is a combination of things that incoming freshmen Brandon Ingram and Chase Jeter bring to the Blue Devils. One or both are strong one-and-done possibilities, which adds to the importance of getting Tatum.

2. Frank Jackson

Credit: 247Sports

Position: Point guard

Height, weight: 6'3", 180 lbs

247Sports rank: 15th 

Though it didn't offer Frank Jackson a scholarship until this past Monday—shortly after he'd unofficially visited the school—Duke has been considered among the Utah guard's most likely destinations ever since he decommitted from BYU last winter.

Of the 11 predictions that were entered into 247Sports' Crystal Ball predictor, 10 were for the Blue Devils. The other is for Stanford, where Jackson is scheduled to visit in July. 

An East Coast native who lived in Washington, D.C. until the age of 11, Jackson is described by Andrew Slater of 247Sports as "ultra-athletic" and a player with "excellent size for an elite point guard, yet has the mindset of a scoring guard."

That's a similar description to Tyus Jones, who superbly manned Duke's point on the national title team but also scored when necessary.

1. Harry Giles

Credit: 247Sports

Position: Power forward

Height, weight: 6'10", 210 lbs

247Sports rank: 1st

As the top-rated player in the class of 2016, it's unlikely Harry Giles is not the top priority for every one of the 16 schools that have offered him scholarships. Most of them don't have a realistic chance to get him, especially when the North Carolina prospect has all of the top programs in that state all over him.

Much like the battle for Brandon Ingram came down to Tobacco Road schools this past spring (with Duke ultimately winning), it again figures to be a competition between Duke, North Carolina, NC State and even Wake Forest for Giles.

Besides the local angle—which hasn't been one Duke has mined much over the years; Ingram is the first Duke scholarship player to sign there since the mid-2000s—there's also the fact that Giles would be a much-needed piece in the Blue Devils frontcourt.

Sean Obi, the Rice transfer, along with incoming freshman Chase Jeter and even Ingram in some cases, will make a fearsome trio in the frontcourt in 2015-16, but to expect more than one of those (Obi) to still be there after this season is foolish.

Giles would make for a great replacement for the expected departures in the paint, and he would keep Duke on a run of landing effective big men after not having stellar ones for several years prior to Jahlil Okafor's arrival.

Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.