NBA Draft 2015: 10 Bold Predictions
With a spectacular 2015 NBA Finals in the rear-view mirror, it's officially time for everyone to gear their hoops-related energies toward the draft.
By this time of year, most of the major draft storylines are well-established. We know the March Madness heroes, the international prospects are less of a mystery, and the general mock draft hierarchy has taken shape.
However, like any other draft, there are plenty of seemingly improbable events waiting to happen.
It's time to break down some bold predictions and draft-night incidents brewing under the radar. Who's going to land higher than anyone expected? Who will fall into the second round? What kind of trades could shake things up?
We're not here to tell you all 10 of these prophecies will come true, but none of these head-turners should be ignored.
Draft Order and Jonathan Wasserman's Big Board
1 of 11To get a look at who's drafting where, here is the 2015 draft order. We also have a fresh Big Board from B/R draft expert Jonathan Wasserman.
New York Knicks Pick Kristaps Porzingis
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Most prognosticators foresee the New York Knicks selecting Duke forward Justise Winslow, Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein or even Chinese League product Emmanuel Mudiay.
Those would all be solid picks for Phil Jackson and Co., but what if they want something better than solid?
Latvian big man Kristaps Porzingis has arguably the highest ceiling of anyone projected to land in the No. 4 range. He's a perimeter-based 4-man at the moment, but in the Spanish League, he's shown a willingness to finish forcefully around the rim.
Knicks fans may be worried he's the next Andrea Bargnani, but he's not. His shooting is similar, but Porzingis is much more athletic and mobile, so he'll be more dependable on defense and around the rim.
Jackson has already talked about free agency as the primary rebuilding tool for the franchise, so New York should feel gutsy enough to gamble on Porzingis. B/R draft expert Jonathan Wasserman explained the dual value in picking the European sensation:
"Knowing how much Porzingis is in demand, Jackson could even select him with the hopes of generating better offers after the pick is made. …
Even if no trade is made, Porzingis is starting to make more sense for the Knicks, given his superior upside compared to the remaining prospects, as well as the fact that nobody else is likely to offer anything substantial next season, anyway. They might as well take the home run swing anyway.
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A pick like this will be met with cynicism and downright anger from the Orange and Blue faithful, but it's a more dynamic choice than their other options. It would also send the middle of the lottery into a frenzy.
Emmanuel Mudiay Slides to No. 7
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A couple of weeks ago, this would have been unthinkable, but the odds are that Emmanuel Mudiay does find a home before the Denver Nuggets are on the clock.
However, if the Philadelphia 76ers or New York Knicks shake things up by selecting Kristaps Porzingis, the shifty point guard could fall past the top six and into Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly's lap.
The scenario isn't wildly far-fetched. In the event Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell and Kristaps Porzingis land in the top four in some order, there's a great chance the Orlando Magic select Justise Winslow and the Sacramento Kings take Willie Cauley-Stein.
This isn't about Mudiay's stock wavering or anything like that. He still has enough allure and upside to challenge for a top-three spot.
Rather, it's more about how the dominoes fall. There's a legitimate chance six teams pass on him because they'd rather address a different deficiency. The Magic don't really need another non-shooting guard, and the Kings could use a rim protector like Cauley-Stein just as much as a floor general.
Frank Kaminsky Is Gone Before No. 10
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Like any late-lottery prediction, this one's contingent upon how the top five shakes out. If the early portion of the draft is out of whack, then it might not happen.
However, if swingmen like Duke's Justise Winslow and Croatia's Mario Hezonja are already off the board, then Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky is a dark horse to get snagged by the Detroit Pistons or Charlotte Hornets.
The 7'0" senior center has the footwork and fluidity to score the rock from inside and out, and his perimeter accuracy is particularly attractive.
Kaminsky's not some intriguing stretch 4 with the potential to produce from NBA range—he could step into the Pistons or Hornets lineup tomorrow and help push them closer to the playoffs. He hit 41.6 percent of his triples as a senior, as well as 45.5 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-math.com.
In Detroit, he'd fit superbly next to Andre Drummond. Where Drummond lacks in post-up dexterity and shooting, Kaminsky compensates. And where Kaminsky lacks in explosiveness and rim protection, Drummond will help.
The Hornets are another team that could use his skill and NBA-readiness. They don't need another green one-and-done project, and their frontcourt could use someone who can truly space the floor out to three-point range.
Don't be surprised if Frank the Tank is unavailable by the time the Miami Heat are on the clock at No. 10.
Washington Wizards Move Up to Take Myles Turner
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The Washington Wizards need to do a little bit of shuffling to enhance their roster and give John Wall different types of resources.
They had varied success playing big with Marcin Gortat and Nene, but they also looked good when using Paul Pierce as an undersized stretch 4 in the playoffs.
Why not get the best of both worlds?
Washington's offense and long-term outlook would have a different dimension if it could land a towering stretch big like Texas' Myles Turner. The 7-footer has the range and size to protect the paint, along with a deft shooting touch unlike any of head coach Randy Wittman's current bigs.
Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated offered a scenario where the Wiz make it happen: The Wizards would receive the No. 12 pick and Trey Burke from the Jazz in exchange for their No. 19 pick, a 2016 first-rounder and Ramon Sessions.
"With Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors in place and the available wing crop a bit thin, Utah adds an extra first-rounder and hands the point guard reins to Dante Exum," Mannix explained. "The Wizards leap at the skilled Turner, who could be their center of the future, and offer the disappointing Burke a change of scenery."
Turner's arrival as a frontcourt player with shooting prowess would give Wall a new kind of weapon.
Kevon Looney Falls to Boston Celtics at No. 28
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If there's a marquee name who could fall on draft night, it will likely be UCLA's Kevon Looney.
The only areas of his game guaranteed to translate to the pros are rebounding and open three-point shooting.
His ceiling is somewhat iffy because he's not a top-tier athlete and his frame doesn't look conducive to substantial muscle mass. And as for his skill set, it's incredibly raw at this stage, leaving him susceptible to becoming a tweener. Looney averaged just 15 points per 40 minutes last season, and many of his buckets came on the glass against smaller college power forwards.
When attacking closeouts or pushing the ball after a rebound, he's shown glimpses of potential as a handler. But overall, his shot-creating and ability to generate separation are limited. Looney doesn't have the footwork or coordination yet to convert mid-range pull-ups or quality post moves. Consequently, he shot just 25.7 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-math.com.
Once thought to be a lottery pick, Looney is now projected to land 20th by Wasserman. He could tumble way down toward the end of the first round, as late as 28th to the Celtics.
It wouldn't be the first time a highly anticipated prospect slipped due to fears of being a tweener. Oklahoma City Thunder forward Perry Jones plummeted to 28th in 2013 even though he was considered a lottery pick at one point.
Turkey's Cedi Osman Sneaks into First Round
7 of 11Turkish swingman Cedi Osman isn't an overwhelming athlete or a spell-binding magician with the ball. He's not a rock-solid pick to become a standout NBA player.
However, versatility is one thing he has going for him, and there's a good chance a late-first-round team will roll the dice on him.
Osman is quick for a 6'8" player, and he has the instincts and budding skills to play two or three positions offensively. His NBA team could play him as an off-guard or primary ball-handler once he acclimates to the Association.
While playing alongside Philadelphia 76ers draftee Dario Saric at Anadolu Efes, Osman showed tangible potential to shoot, attack off the bounce and make plays defensively with his length and energy.
"(Osman) is perfect draft-and-stash," ESPN.com's Fran Fraschilla claimed. "Young player playing in top league with NBA positional size and style. Flaws can be ironed out."
Look for clubs like the San Antonio Spurs, Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets to strongly consider adding his multidimensional potential to their stables.
23-Year-Old Rakeem Christmas Will Be Drafted Before 20-Year-Old Chris McCullough
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Syracuse freshman Chris McCullough is an intriguing commodity, sporting a 7'3" wingspan and loads of athleticism for above-the-rim adventures.
Even though he tore his ACL, his upside is lofty because he's just 20 years old. His future as a slasher, mid-range shooter and rim protector is bright, and it would not be surprising if a late-first-round team took a flier on him.
Meanwhile, his elder teammate Rakeem Christmas could also land late in the first round and potentially leapfrog the younger prodigy. Christmas doesn't have the cushion of developmental years ahead of him like McCullough, but he has a 7'5" wingspan of his own and an NBA-ready skill set in the post.
Drafting based on youth and development is a big part of today's NBA, but in some cases, drafting the better basketball player is a smarter move. ESPN.com's Chad Ford projected McCullough to land 29th and Christmas at 38th, but we're predicting things to unfold the other way around.
McCullough is ultra raw, while Christmas has a polished post-up game and a dependable mid-range shot. According to Hoop-math.com, Christmas shot 70.1 percent at the rim and 41.8 percent on two-point jumpers. Those numbers are outstanding, considering his offensive volume and the attention defenses paid to him.
"I'm humble, I'm hungry, and I just go out there and do the little things," Christmas told reporters at his workout with the Los Angeles Lakers. "Rebound, block shots, score if I have to score."
There are a few late-first-round teams that may rather take an NBA-ready player than a project. The Los Angeles Lakers could accelerate their rebuild at No. 27 with frontcourt depth in Christmas, and teams like the Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors would also bolster the back end of their rotations immediately with an older rookie.
Philadelphia 76ers Use Plethora of Assets to Add Second First-Round Pick
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Sam Hinkie pulling off a draft-night trade isn't earth-shattering, but he always seems to find a way to surprise us.
After the No. 3 pick, the Philadelphia 76ers are stocked with five second-round picks. That means one-sixth of the second round belongs to them.
Instead of using all the picks or tabbing a bunch of draft-and-stash players, Philly could package a couple of them, along with other resources and assets, to move back into the first round. For instance, the team could dispatch someone like Tony Wroten with a couple of second-rounders in exchange for a late-first-round selection.
Who they target with this newfound pick would depend largely on who they grab at No. 3.
If they take a guard in the lottery, their latter choice could be a wing. A three-and-D role player like Virginia's Justin Anderson would be a great fit, as he's a stronger, better-shooting version of 2014 pick K.J. McDaniels.
If the Sixers' lotto man isn't a playmaker, they should consider a high-upside combo guard like Louisville's Terry Rozier. And if a shooting guard stud like R.J. Hunter falls into that 25-30 range, they should snatch him up without thinking twice.
Kentucky's Dakari Johnson Slips to 50s...
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Not every Kentucky big man can be a first-round darling.
Dakari Johnson's potential slide would be a result of his underwhelming ceiling in comparison to many middle-tier centers in this draft.
Although he offers huge presence in the lane with a 260-pound frame and 9'4" standing reach, he's a below-the-rim player. Johnson's max vertical at the combine was 25", which means he'll have trouble contesting most of the athletes who prowl the NBA frontcourt these days.
Other than carving out space against physically overwhelmed opponents, Johnson didn't showcase much production during his time at Kentucky. He shot just 64 percent on shots at the rim in 2014-15, per Hoop-math.com, and he averaged a modest 15.6 points per 40 minutes as part of the Wildcats' second unit.
In today's NBA, post players need to be able to guard athletic slashers, defend the pick-and-roll respectably and hit jump shots.
There's not a ton of convincing evidence he'll do that, so several athletic international big men may hear their names called before him. Serbia's Nikola Milutinov, France's Alpha Kaba and France's Mouhammadou Jaiteh are all springier than him and offer more versatility.
...And His Wildcat Teammate Aaron Harrison Sneaks into Draft at No. 60
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Due to concerns about his shooting consistency, Kentucky 2-guard Aaron Harrison has been widely billed as a bubble pick, with many mock drafters leaving him out of the party.
The worries about his efficiency are reasonable, as the sophomore hit just 31.6 percent of his shots from the college arc during 2014-15. Harrison's not an exceptionally convincing creator off the bounce, and he has good-but-not-great athleticism.
However, there are a couple of factors the Philadelphia 76ers (picking 60th) should consider before letting him slip away.
First, he took a high volume of shots (9.9 per game) as an underclassman during his time in Lexington. In a more modest role with open looks in the NBA, his percentages should go up. It's also important to remember he's just 20 years old and doesn't have a broken delivery. He has the time and wherewithal to improve.
The other major factor is his physical profile. Harrison is 6'6" in shoes and already weighs 210 pounds. In other words, he's physically ready to mix it up with NBA guards and can score above the cup.
"I think I can show my ability to create my own shot and create for others," Harrison told reporters at the NBA combine in Chicago.
If he can iron out his jumper, he could wind up being a steal rather than a disappointment.
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