2015 NBA Mock Draft: Current Projections for Every 1st-Round Prospect
The NBA Finals are now in the books, which means we will finally get a much-needed and lengthy break from the deluge of basketball news.
Wait, what? The draft's this week? Like...this one? And not in a month or something? Well, OK then, take back that lede.
Of course, for those who haven't been playing for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, Thursday night's festivities are a long time coming. The predraft process begins ramping up in line with March Madness, allowing events like the scouting combine, lottery and workouts to prop up the news cycle in time before Commissioner Adam Silver takes the podium.
Still, that doesn't mean anything is settled. After the Minnesota Timberwolves select Karl-Anthony Towns with the No. 1 pick, there are an infinite number of scenarios that can play out the rest of the way. Jahlil Okafor is expected to become a Los Angeles Laker at No. 2, but the prospect of Kristaps Porzingis is tempting. The Lakers' decision at No. 2 will help inform the rest of the top 10, so it's hard to get a firm grip on how things will play out—even if the Okafor selection seems likely.
With that in mind, let's check in on some first-round risers and fallers as the draft process ramps up.
Mock Draft
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | New York Knicks | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Myles Turner, PF/C, Texas |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Wisconsin |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Rakeem Christmas, PF/C, Syracuse |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Robert Upshaw, C, Washington |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Justin Anderson, SG/SF, Virginia |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain |
Stock Watch
Rising: Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
Porzingis is still going to the Orlando Magic in these projections—the place I've had him for weeks—but it now feels like the absolute worst-case scenario. He has spent the predraft process impressing NBA scouts everywhere he's been, leading to some speculation that he could go as high as No. 2.
The Lakers finally had him in for a workout at their team facility last week after being impressed with his work in Vegas. The overwhelming likelihood is that the Lakers play it safe and take Okafor, who is as close to a guarantee as there is in this class.
But the Porzingis question starts getting interesting with the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks.
The Sixers appeared locked in on D'Angelo Russell, but news of Joel Embiid's foot injury not healing as planned may cause them to reconsider. The Knicks have been all over the board throughout the process. They could select Emmanuel Mudiay, trade back for a team looking to land Porzingis or grab the Latvian forward themselves.
What's clear watching Porzingis is that there is no player in this class who approximates his all-around skill set. He's a 7-footer who drains threes with confidences, runs well in the open court and uses his athleticism to affect shots near the rim. Porzingis is also an adept passer who can run a little point forward in a pinch. There are legitimate questions about his bulk (230 lbs) and defensive acumen, but Porzingis seems legitimately offended at the "soft" label, as he told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski:
"I don't like being labeled soft. I'm very hungry. I love the game. I've got to prove to coaches and GMs that I'm not soft just because I'm from Europe. They need to see that I'm not just some skinny white guy, that I'm going to be there fighting. They'll need to see that I'm a worker who's going to play hard, and play tough.
"
No. 5 still feels like the right spot here. I'm just less sure about it than I've ever been.
Falling: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
In the same token, Mudiay better hope the Knicks stick with expectations and grab him at No. 4. Otherwise, he could free-fall toward the bottom of the top 10.
The Magic don't need a point guard after taking Elfrid Payton last year. The Sacramento Kings would wind up with a 50-50 choice between Willie Cauley-Stein and Mudiay at No. 6 assuming Orlando would grab Justise Winslow in that scenario. The Denver Nuggets might not want to undermine Ty Lawson's trade value by drafting a point guard.
The absolute basement for Mudiay would probably be No. 8, where I couldn't imagine Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy passing on a high-ceiling talent. Van Gundy traded for Reggie Jackson at the deadline and plans to keep him around, assuming the price is right. Mudiay being available at No. 8 might alter those plans a little though we're getting ahead of ourselves.
The prospect of Mudiay being available at that point in the draft would have seemed unfathomable a couple of months ago. Then, there were still people wondering if Mudiay had the highest ceiling of any player in this class. That buzz has since worn off and been passed to Porzingis while Mudiay hangs in mid-lottery limbo.
Strangely enough, there isn't anything different about Mudiay's game now as there was then. He still probably has one of the three highest upsides among players in this class. Built in the John Wall-Russell Westbrook mold, Mudiay is a special open-court player who bounces off bigger defenders at the rim and finishes through contact. If he develops even an average jump shot, we're talking about a potential All-Star.
The whole situation reminds me a bit of when Andre Drummond dropped three years ago because of similar rawness concerns.
Rising: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
Now for the requisite reminder that Cam Payne is awesome. I and others have been writing about this kid for months, and most of the expectations of us early adopters have been met. Payne is firmly locked into the lottery at this point and has worked out for a number of teams inside the top 10.
ESPN.com's Ian Begley reported the Knicks are possibly interested in trading down for him. The Nuggets brought him in for a workout. You could even reasonably talk yourself into Sacramento selecting him—and not just because they're the Krazy Kings.
Payne will mark the fourth straight year a mid-major guard has pushed himself into the lottery, joining Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Elfrid Payton. Payne's skill set is a bit of a mix of all three. He's an under-the-basket player like McCollum, a natural point guard like Payton and an off-the-dribble killer like Lillard.
Shooting-wise, Payne will be closer to league average than a bomber, but he's a decent three-point threat who can put up points fast when he's feeling it. The Pistons are an interesting fit because of the Jackson situation, but it's not hard to envision Van Gundy finding ways to use both. Payne could electrify a bench unit with his ball-handling and shot creation, a trait the Pistons will need with Brandon Jennings still on the mend.
If Payne doesn't wind up going No. 8, he'll become an option for the Indiana Pacers at No. 11, the Phoenix Suns at No. 13 and the Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 14. Oklahoma City in particular would be doing backflips if he's available.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
