Italy's Loss to Portugal Puts Azzurri in Uncomfortable Position for Russia 2018

It's not often that you hear the term "crucial friendly" used with a straight face, but that's exactly what Tuesday's game against Portugal was for the Italian national team.

With Wales and Romania flying up the FIFA World Rankings thanks to successful Euro 2016 qualifying campaigns and their own ranking held down by a spate of draws and their poor showing in Brazil last summer, the Italians came into the game in serious danger of going into next month's draw for 2018 World Cup qualifying unseeded.

A spot in Pot 1 is usually taken for granted by fans of the Azzurri, but only a victory over a Cristiano Ronaldo-less Portugal in Geneva would enable them to take their usual place amongst the seeds and avoid having to go into World Cup qualifying—a tournament with much less margin for error—having to worry about a heavyweight side like Germany, the Netherlands or Spain.

The game was certainly played at a friendly's pace, but it seemed Antonio Conte was well aware of the match's potential consequences.  Some of Italy's top players were starters in the kind of game that they usually get to cool their heels.  Andrea Pirlo, who hardly ever plays in friendlies, was given the captain's armband.  Leonardo Bonucci and Matteo Darmian both started in the back four, and Antonio Candreva and Stephan El Shaarawy both flanked Ciro Immobile in the forward line.

History was on their side going in. Italy hadn't lost to Portugal in 39 years, and the national team had never lost a game at the Stade de Geneve. These little quirks have had a tendency for holding true for Italy in the present, but unfortunately this wasn't one of those nights.

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The team came out looking the livelier. Portugal were penned into their own half for the first 30 minutes of the game. But the Italians, as they have in their last several international fixtures, lacked that last little cutting-edge that would have given the Azzurri a lead.

Every time, the ball was just a little too far, or the first touch by a forward just the slightest bit off, or one decision was made that left a slightly better option on the table.

Their best opportunities in the first period were all from distance.  Pirlo stood over a free-kick on the far corner of Beto's penalty area and surprised the Portuguese keeper by testing him. Beto managed to punch away, but a foot or so on either side would have put the Azzurri in the catbird seat early.

It took a quarter of an hour for the Italians to come close again. Stephan El Shaarawy made a fantastic, cutting run from the left wing that brought back memories of his breakout year two seasons ago. If Candreva's through ball had had just a little more on it the AC Milan man would have been clean through, but it ran out of steam enough for Jose Fonte to flick it back, where Andrea Bertolacci fired a first-time shot that swerved just a bit wide.

Ten minutes later, El Sha cut inside on a breakaway and fired for the far post, just missing. Here is where decision-making can come into play, because it looked like he had a man in the box ready for a cross.

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As the first half wore on, the Portuguese found their way into the game, and things started evening out.  The Azzurri very easily could have gone behind after half an hour when Salvatore Sirigu—in for the injured Gianluigi Buffon—misplayed a back pass and gifted his opponents an empty net.

Andrea Ranocchia tracked back to make a great play to clear the shot off the line, but when another defensive miscue in their own half resulted in a Joao Moutinho shot six minutes later, it was clear that Italy weren't going to be impregnable.

The Azzurri started brightly again after the half. Seconds into the half, Roberto Soriano ran in to follow up on a Pirlo free kick and fired a shot that dipped just too late. Five minutes later, Pirlo whipped another set piece in, only to see Bonucci crash the ball into the bar. Darmian rushed in to tap in the rebound, but his sliding shot was just barely blocked over the bar by Portugal's scrambling defense.

Only 120 seconds later, Italy's hopes of a seed next month crumbled.

Substitute left-back Eliseu, on for the injured Fabio Coentrao, danced around Soriano at the halfway line and released Ricardo Quaresma down Portugal's left wing. Quaresma, had not started an international game in five years and had been stifled by Matteo Darmian in the first half, but this time, he came down the left instead of the right and slipped in a wonderful cross to Eder—not to be confused with Italy's own player by the same name—to tap the ball past a stranded Sirigu.

Conte began making changes in bunches following the goal, but none of them managed to provide much spark. Italy, now needing two goals to stay in Pot 1, never really kicked into gear. A wonderful turn by Pirlo in the box saw him feed Darmian in the 67th minute, but his far-post effort flashed just wide. It wasn't until the game's dying minutes that Italy really saw some true chances.

The first came off the cannon left foot of Manolo Gabbiadini and was denied by a smart save from Beto.  The Portuguese keeper acquitted himself well again in stoppage time when another substitute, Franco Vazquez, chipped a brilliant shot that was met by an equally brilliant parry. The ensuing corner kick—the last of the match—fell to the feet of Andrea Ranocchia, who scuffed the ball hopelessly wide. It was emblematic of the entire day.

The game highlighted some of the major holes in Conte's setup. For one thing, his midfield depth is poor.  With Marco Verratti and Daniele De Rossi out injured and Claudio Marchisio resting, reserve players like Soriano and Bertolacci have come up short.  Soriano in particular was turned inside out—by a full-back, no less—in the lead-up to the goal. Until he can put together a full-strength unit in the middle of the park, he's going to have problems there.

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But perhaps Conte's biggest problem is that he hasn't had a reliable finisher since taking over.  Immobile and Simone Zaza—who missed this international period injured—started off like gangbusters when his reign began, only to fall off. Graziano Pelle likewise scored in his first international under Conte but has since dropped off the pace.

Giuseppe Rossi is still returning to full health after yet another season lost to knee injuries—and as talented as he is, the fact that we're still talking about a man who has lost almost 80 percent of the last four years to those injuries as a potential cure for these ills is symptomatic of the bigger problem.

One wonders what Conte might be able to achieve with exciting young talent like Domenico Berardi and Federico Bernardeschi in this team. As it stands, both of those youngsters are going to the Czech Republic as part of Luigi Di Baggio's U21 European Championship side, and if the Azzurrini qualify for the Olympics, they may not be full-timers at the senior level until after Rio next year.

Until then, Conte is going to have to make do with his middling options up front, which really have been lain bare. That lack of cutting edge has led to what really does need to be considered a failure in Switzerland. Italy controlled their own destiny when it came to seeding in the World Cup qualifiers, but they have now ceded that place to Croatia.

The Italians found out what losing a spot in the seeded pot can do at the last World Cup, when they let Switzerland—ironically—slip past them and wound up in a group with England, Uruguay and the tournament's surprise team in Costa Rica. Hopefully this slip-up won't see them matched with a team like Germany when they embark on their quest to make up for that failure in Brazil.