Austrian Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Spielberg Race
Formula One heads to the mountains this weekend for the 28th Austrian Grand Prix. It's the home race for the once-dominant Red Bull team, but Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat are unlikely to benefit and look set for a difficult Sunday.
It could even be their worst race of the season—and Renault's worst for almost seven years.
Sebastian Vettel endured a miserable time as a Red Bull driver at last year's race, but he looks set for a stronger showing this time out. His Ferrari SF15-T's true pace was hidden by qualifying issues in Canada; expect him to give Mercedes a harder time in Spielberg.
But Lewis Hamilton, so quick around the Red Bull Ring in 2014, should still be out of the four-time champion's reach.
Here's how we expect the weekend to pan out.
A Hat-Trick for Lewis Hamilton
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Lewis Hamilton ended Nico Rosberg's winning streak with a calm and controlled drive in Montreal to win his fourth Canadian Grand Prix.
It came at a race he retired from in 2014; he also hit trouble at last season's Austrian round, where a spin in qualifying left him ninth on the grid. An aggressive opening lap and impressive mid-race move on Felipe Massa salvaged second, but he was the quickest man on the circuit all weekend—he should have won.
The Red Bull Ring could have been designed for the reigning champion's style, and per Autosport, Hamilton is happier in the W06 car than he was in the W05. He hasn't made as many mistakes in qualifying this year and a repeat of his 2014 spin is unlikely.
We backed Hamilton for pole and the win in Canada, and he duly delivered.
The Brit can go one better at the Red Bull Ring this weekend and truly dominate the meeting—pole, win and fastest lap for the eighth hat-trick of his F1 career.
Sebastian Vettel Will Trouble the 2 Mercedes Drivers
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Sebastian Vettel missed out on the podium in Canada after problems in qualifying. The German started 18th but demonstrated excellent race pace to cut through the field and finish fifth.
Had he started where he usually does, he was sufficiently quick that he might have been able to at least worry the two Mercedes.
Austria is a similar sort of track to Canada—long straights and not much in the way of corners—so we can expect Ferrari to again be strong. Vettel is unlikely to suffer a repeat of his Montreal misery on Saturday and should beat off a spirited Williams effort to claim third.
From there he has a great opportunity to show us the true pace of the new, upgraded Ferrari engine—and he could make a big impact right at the start.
Neither Mercedes was quick off the line in Bahrain, while Vettel jumped Lewis Hamilton to take second in Spain. In Monaco both Ferrari and Red Bull made better starts than the Silver Arrows, and at the last race Kimi Raikkonen very nearly got past Rosberg into Turn 1.
If the W06 has a weakness, it's getting moving from a stationary start.
The Red Bull Ring has a wide, uphill run to Turn 1, and like all grids, the pole side is grippier. If Mercedes continue their recent run of bad getaways, Vettel—or someone else, if they start third—could easily split them off the line.
But even if he doesn't, expect the four-time champion to keep Hamilton and Rosberg honest on Sunday.
No Points for Renault-Powered Teams
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The two Renault-powered teams both possess a chassis more than capable of scoring points at most races—but don't expect a lot of joy for Red Bull or Toro Rosso in Austria.
Horsepower rules at the straight-heavy, corner-light Red Bull Ring. Mercedes are the class of the engine field and at least three of their teams—Mercedes, Williams and Lotus—should easily get both cars into the points.
Ferrari too have a good engine; both Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen should score.
Providing those four teams finish, there will be just two opportunities for Renault-powered teams—and at least one of them might be out of the running before the race has even started. Auto Motor und Sport (h/t Grandprix.com) reports both Red Bull drivers may be taking full new power units. The resulting penalties would see them start right at the back.
If this happens, Force India—who will have the new, upgraded Mercedes engine for the first time—look most likely to round out the top 10.
Renault have a run of consecutive points-scoring races stretching back to the 2008 European Grand Prix. This weekend could see it broken.
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Top Rookie: Felipe Nasr
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We backed Felipe Nasr to be the top rookie in Canada, and he responded with one of his worst races of the year. Outqualified by Marcus Ericsson and lacking pace in the race, the Brazilian trailed home 16th.
It was surprising because, in theory, Sauber should have been strong in Montreal. They have a strong engine, and their aerodynamic failings relative to better-funded teams should have been lessened.
Team principal Monisha Kaltenborn thinks something must have gone wrong, telling Chris Medland of F1i, "We definitely have to learn and understand why that race pace was missing because Austria is a similar track. We went to Canada and we still believe that kind of track should be suiting our car more than other tracks like Barcelona, so we have to exactly understand what happened."
The drivers' post-race comments suggest they too were a little confused, and Nasr at least had a loss of power and brake troubles to blame for his difficulties.
We can see the team being much quicker at the Red Bull Ring—and with all the other rookies in cars that lack horsepower relative to Nasr's, we're backing him to come out on top.
More Misery for McLaren
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McLaren suffered a double retirement in Montreal, but it didn't really matter. Neither Fernando Alonso nor Jenson Button ever looked likely to be among the points scorers.
Straight-line speed was the primary issue. The FIA's race data shows Alonso was slowest of all, behind even the two Manors, at two of the three recorded speed traps. Button was slowest of all in the third.
The team are bringing a new aerodynamic package to the Austrian race, centred around a new, shorter nose. McLaren announced on Twitter that it had passed the necessary crash tests and was ready for use—but it's difficult to see it making a huge difference at a track where horsepower has so much impact on lap time.
Like the Renault-powered teams, it won't matter too much what aerodynamic bits and bobs McLaren bring—they'll be too slow on the straights to make the most of them.
Alonso and Button might qualify well; the car seems closer relative to their rivals over a single lap than it does over long runs.
But when the race gets under way, expect all four Mercedes teams and both 2015-spec Ferrari teams to be comfortably clear of the MP4-30s—and maybe keep an ear out for another angry radio message from Fernando Alonso.
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