Analyzing the Factors Behind Patrik Elias' Mediocre 2014-15 Season

Patrik Elias may well go down as the best forward in the history of the New Jersey Devils.

The 39-year-old Czech forward does not simply lead the Devils in the major offensive categories—he is running away with them. 

His 406 goals are 59 more than second-place John MacLean. His 611 assists are 247 more than second-place Scott Niedermayer. His 1,017 points are 316 more than second-place MacLean. 

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

There is little doubt that Elias' legacy as a Devil is already cemented, but that does not change the fact that in 2014-15, he had a mediocre season at best.

Of course, he was far from the only forward in New Jersey to struggle last season, but his consistent contributions over the years made his poor play in 2014-15 surprising nonetheless.

What went wrong for the native of Trebic in 2014-15? Is it simply age catching up to Elias, or were other factors at work? A look at specific statistics seems to indicate that both played a role in his dip in play, thus leaving some hope that he can turn it around in 2015-16.

Elias' Underwhelming Season in Context

Elias ended the 2014-15 season with 69 games played, 13 goals, 21 assists, 34 points and a team-worst minus-20 rating. His goals and points totals were both his lowest since 1996-97 (in which he played only 17 games). His assists total was his lowest since 1997-98, and his plus/minus was a career low by a wide margin. 

So, while 13 goals and 34 points may not seem particularly underwhelming for a 39-year-old, Elias has a history of excelling offensively in New Jersey, so 2014-15 was certainly a letdown.

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

It is worth noting that though he struggled in terms of his own high standards, he still finished fourth on the team in goals, third in assists and third in points. The Devils finished with the third-fewest goals in the NHL in 2014-15, so no single player excelled offensively in New Jersey last season. In short, Elias' struggles were clear and real, but we must also consider them in terms of the struggles of the team as a whole.

Still, the most disturbing statistic is his minus-20 rating. Elias has always been a sound defensive forward, which has played a huge role in his continued presence with the Devils. However, his minus-20 was six worse than Jon Merrill's plus/minus, which was the next lowest among Devils players. 

Elias' plus/minus is poor both relative to his team and in absolute terms. 

Poor Linemates Leading to Poor Performances?

During his time in New Jersey, Elias has played with some tremendous forwards. Since breaking into the lineup on a regular basis in 1997, he has had the pleasure of lining up with players like Alexander Mogilny, Petr Sykora, Jason Arnott, Scott Gomez, Zach Parise, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jaromir Jagr and more.

In 2014-15, Elias had no such joy.

According to LeftWingLock.com, his most common linemates were Travis Zajac and Martin Havlat. His second-most common linemates were Dainius Zubrus and Stephen Gionta. 

Zajac and Gionta were each unimpressive offensively but at least decent defensively. The problem players were Zubrus and Havlat. 

Zubrus, 36, has a history of being a defensively responsible forward but struggled in all three zones in 2014-15. His lack of speed was exposed constantly, and he struggled to move the puck in transition. 

The Devils brought in Havlat, a fellow Czech forward, to help ease the team's goal-scoring woes, but he was underwhelming at best. His defense was poor, and he struggled to keep the puck. He also found it difficult to score even when he earned the rare scoring chance.

(For a fuller idea of how poor these two were, see this article on disappointing Devils players from March.)

Elias spent most of his time on the ice last season with at least one of these players and struggled as a result. To what extent this undermined his play is somewhat unclear, but at the very least, it was an important factor for his difficulties.

What Enhanced Stats Say: Team Struggles and Questionable Usage Were a Bigger Factor Than Individual Poor Play

According to NHL.com, Elias' shot attempts against (SAT) per 60 minutes was minus-2.71. This means that per 60 minutes of his ice time, the Devils conceded 2.71 more shots (on goal, off goal and blocked) than they took. This statistic can offer a sense of how well a team possesses the puck while a particular player is on the ice.

That does not sound great, but Elias' SAT per 60 was actually (among players with at least 30 games played) fifth-best on the team and third-best among New Jersey forwards during 2014-15. Given that the Devils conceded 510 more shots than they took over the course of the season, his possession numbers were decent.

In fact, relative to the rest of the team, Elias' possession numbers have not significantly changed over the last three seasons. His SAT per 60 in 2013-14 was 5.83, obviously better in terms of raw data, but that was good for only fourth among Devils forwards that season. In 2012-13, his SAT per 60 was 11.49, again fourth-best among Devils forwards. 

So, Elias' possession numbers have dipped over the last two seasons, but that is largely related to the struggles of New Jersey as a whole. As he's aged, his possession play has slipped some, but it appears the poor play of the team is more telling than any individual underwhelming play.

A look at how he was used in 2014-15 also seems to indicate that his poor play came, at least to an extent, as a result of forces outside of his control. 

According to Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, Elias' offensive zone faceoff rate was 24.8 percent, the fourth-lowest among Devils forwards. This means that only 24.8 percent of the faceoffs he was on the ice for came in the offensive zone. His defensive zone faceoff rate was 34.9 percent, and his neutral zone faceoff rate was 40.2 percent.

Two of his most common linemates, Zubrus and Havlat, had similar rates. 

Ultimately, this seems to indicate that Elias' line, regardless of who was on it, was asked to play a defensive style of hockey. By starting him and his linemates in the neutral or defensive zone, the coaching staff limited the offensive chances these players would get and put them in positions in which they had to transition from defense to offense. For these players, who painfully lack speed, such a task was the wrong thing to ask.

The result? Elias had only 114 shots on goal, his lowest total since 1996-97. Also, he was put in positions where he had to defend, often with linemates who were incapable of clearing the defensive zone, which compounded the number of chances the team faced when he was on the ice. Surely, this contributed to his minus-20 rating.

Conclusion: Elias' Best Days Are Behind Him, but Utilized Correctly, He Can Still Be Solid

To be clear, Elias is 39 years old and will no longer be the elite player he was during the 2000s. But he is still a useful player if John Hynes and Ray Shero can figure out the right way to use him. Former coach Peter DeBoer and interim coach Lou Lamoriello simply asked him to do too much. 

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Elias cannot be a player who carries a line offensively or defensively anymore. This was clear during 2014-15. Asking that of the Czech forward will lead to another disappointing season for both Elias and his linemates.

But, if put on a line with teammates who can skate well, he could contribute with his smart play in all three zones, his willingness to defend as much as necessary and his passing and finishing ability. Hynes would do well to put Elias in a third-line role with players like Jacob Josefson and Stephen Gionta around him.