Italy's Depleted Lineup Just off the Pace but Deserved More from Draw in Croatia

The Italy we saw in Friday's Euro 2016 qualifier against Croatia certainly wasn't the crisp, active side seen at the beginning of Antonio Conte's reign as CT.

Conte's team lacked the likes of Marco Verratti, Giorgio Chiellini and Daniele De Rossi, and it showed in their play.  Those injured players' replacements were consistently just off the pace.  The passes were just a little too far or too short, the runs were just a little bit overplayed, and, as the game progressed, the energy level fell off.

That said, the Azzurri will leave Split having a legitimate claim that all three points—and first place in the group—should have been theirs.

The sequence in question came in the 10th minute.  Right-back Lorenzo De Silvestri surged forward and slipped a ball into the box that Graziano Pelle managed to flip back to AC Milan winger Stephan El Shaarawy, who tipped the ball cooly into the net.  But his celebrations were abruptly ended when he noticed the assistant holding up his flag.

It's impossible to see how any infraction could have been seen.  Replays showed El Shaarawy was comfortably onside on both the initial cross and after Pelle's flick.  The decision absolutely beggared belief.

Even more puzzling was the fact that referee Martin Atkinson allowed play to begin so quickly.  The Croatians capitalized on several Italians being out of position to argue the call, and Mario Mandzukic easily tucked a tap-in past Gianluigi Buffon to give the Vatreni a 1-0 lead, when the scoreline should have been flipped.

To their credit, the Italians responded well.  They started earning free-kicks in dangerous positions and got into the Croatian box with consistency.

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In the 32nd minute the equalizer nearly came.  Claudio Marchisio made an impressive run down the left-hand channel and released Pelle deep into the box.  The Southampton man pulled the ball back for El Shaarawy, but the rust clearly showed on the youngster as he scuffed his effort directly at Danijel Subasic.

Italy's deserved goal came four minutes later.  Andrea Pirlo whipped in yet another free-kick in a dangerous spot, and this time Mario Mandzukic threw his hand in front of Pelle's forehead as it arrived for the striker to turn in.  

Atkinson rightly pointed to the spot, and Antonio Candreva turned Subasic in knots.  His slow run-up made Subasic commit to his left before he even arrived at the ball, and the Lazio man cheekily chipped it by to knot the score.

As the half drew to a close, the Azzurri had chances to turn the game completely on its head, but Pelle made hashes of them both, overrunning Pirlo's fantastic free-kick delivery and then slamming a shot straight at Subasic in the first minute of stoppage time, when El Shaarawy was available for a tap-in at the far post.

Bad news accompanied the start of the second half.  Buffon, who had sustained a cut on the knee in the first half, was forced from the field when efforts to stop the bleeding failed.  Salvatore Sirigu is a more-than-capable understudy, but the injury's real impact was tactical.

Conte had already been forced to use a substitution in the first half, when De Silvestri suffered what looked like a severe ankle injury.  Buffon being forced from the field left him with a single move if he wanted to influence the game in the second half.

The second half turned into a limp affair.  There were chances all over.  El Shaarawy had the chance to send Claudio Marchisio straight through the channel on a strong run six minutes into the half, but his pass didn't have enough to get through the defenders in front of him.

With 68 minutes on the clock, Candreva absolutely left Danijel Pranjic in the dust by tipping the ball up the byline and detouring out of bounds to reclaim the ball.  His cross was dropped back for Pirlo who fired the ball just too high.

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Two minutes later, another fantastic display from the Lazio man set up Marco Parolo at point-blank range, but rather than power it into the net, he tried to shape it and only managed a tame ball straight at Subasic.

From there the game ramped down.  Ivan Perisic flashed a 30-yard drive wide of Sirigu's post, but otherwise PSG's No. 1 had hardly anything to do in the back.  Italy defended well and had the better game, but with only one change left, Conte left nothing to chance and withdrew El Shaarawy for Andrea Ranocchia with 10 minutes left, content to leave the table at the status quo rather than risk defeat.

It's worth wondering whether Conte, given his notorious drive to win, would have made such a pragmatic decision if he had had more than one substitution left.  The injuries in the back severely limited his ability to influence things in the front, and in the end he decided to play safe rather than beef up the attack with the likes of Manolo Gabbiadini.  In the end it was likely a good decision, but one hopes it won't haunt Italy later.

This is certainly not the result the Italians hoped for.  With the Stadion Poljud empty after UEFA punished the Croatians for racist chants in their last home fixture, it was hoped that the team could take advantage and claim all three points.  

As it stands now, though, the Croatians still carry a two-point lead in Group H, and the Italians are still holding off Norway—who played out a scoreless draw against Azerbaijan—for the second automatic qualifying spot.

The Azzurri certainly weren't without fault in this game.  The selection of Davide Astori ahead of Ranocchia in the center of defense turned out to be less than inspired.  He gave away a cheap penalty after only six minutes and was lucky to see Buffon bail him out by meeting Mandzukic's poor shot with an authoritative parry that allowed his teammates to clear.

Also off the pace was Pelle, whose lack of playing time at Southampton showed in his mistimed runs and shoddy passing.  He was particularly disappointing as a target man on set pieces.  It was clear how much Chiellini was missed, both in defense and as a target on free-kicks.

There were some impressive performances.  Candreva was imperious as a winger in Conte's new-loook 4-3-3, which really should be the default for the Italians going forward.  Also acquitting himself well was Matteo Darmian, who made almost a half-dozen timely interventions to stop runs and block crosses.  The hype surrounding the young full-back is well-deserved.

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Without De Rossi in midfield, the team looked toothless.  Parolo was practically nonexistent, and Marchisio had his moments but looked a bit tired after a long season with Juventus.

On that note, several players on both sides faded badly as time went on, and the last five to 10 minutes of the match were played at almost a walking pace.  UEFA needs to rethink their decision to stage qualifiers so close to the end of the season, because it very obviously affected the quality of the game as the clocked ticked down.

But for all their inadequacies in this game, the fact of the matter is that Mandzukic's goal should never have happened, because El Shaarawy's seconds before should not have been disallowed.  Croatia will head into the next round of qualifiers in the group's driver's seat, but based on what was seen on the field, they shouldn't be.

Atkinson's crew did not acquit themselves well in that sequence, and on the balance of the game, had they gotten the call right, Italy, for all their faults, looked good enough for three points.  It remains to be seen how much that call will affect France's race—and the seeding for World Cup qualification, which will be determined in the coming months.

Italy will certainly look at this as an opportunity lost—and perhaps one taken away.